Oil Update — prices little changed as expectations for OPEC+ increase weigh
Brent crude slipped 4 cents to $67.07 a barrel at 9:18 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 9 cents to $65.36 a barrel.
Brent has traded between a high of $69.05 a barrel and low of $66.34 since June 25, as concerns of supply disruptions in the Middle East producing region have ebbed following the ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
Weighing on prices, sources said American Petroleum Institute data late on Tuesday showed US crude oil inventories rose by 680,000 barrels in the past week at a time when stockpiles typically draw amid the summer demand season.
'Today's oil price moves are being pushed by the interplay of potentially rising OPEC+ supply, confusing US inventory signals, uncertain geopolitical outlook, and macro-policy ambiguity,' said Phillip Nova senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.
However, planned supply increases by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, know as OPEC+, appear already priced in by investors and are unlikely to catch markets off-guard again imminently, she added.
Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week the group plans to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day next month when it meets on July 6, a similar amount to hikes agreed for May, June and July.
The market is already seeing the results of the previous OPEC+ increases with Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, lifting shipments in June by 450,000 bpd from May, according to data from Kpler, its highest in more than a year.
'With geopolitics at bay for now, oil futures (are likely) to trade within a tighter range this week, as global economic concerns persist, with an 'easing dollar' as the only exception to extend any upward traction,' said Sachdeva.
The greenback fell to a 3-1/2-year low against major peers earlier on Wednesday and a weaker dollar would support prices as its could spur demand for buyers paying in other currencies.
US non-farm payrolls data due on Thursday will shape expectations around the depth and timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year, said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG.
Lower interest rates could spur economic activity which would in turn boost oil demand.
Official US oil stockpile data from the Energy Information Administration is due Wednesday at 5:30 p.m. Saudi time.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Asharq Al-Awsat
7 minutes ago
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Saudi Arabia: Non-Oil Activities Make up 49.7% of Revenue
Saudi Arabia's non-oil revenues grew 7% in the second quarter of 2025, reaching 149.86 billion riyals ($39.9 billion), up from 140.60 billion riyals ($39.5 billion) a year earlier, government data showed on Thursday. Non-oil income accounted for 49.7% of total revenues during the quarter, highlighting continued efforts to diversify the economy away from hydrocarbons. Overall revenues reached 301.60 billion riyals ($80.4 billion), while expenditures amounted to 336.13 billion riyals ($89.6 billion), resulting in a quarterly budget deficit of 34.53 billion riyals ($9.2 billion). Oil revenues fell sharply by 29% year-on-year to 151.7 billion riyals in Q2. Tax revenues posted broad-based gains. Income, profit, and capital gains taxes rose 7% to 13.73 billion riyals. Taxes on goods and services also climbed 7%, reaching 74.95 billion riyals. Trade and international transaction taxes jumped 16% to 6.32 billion riyals, while other taxes increased 6% to 25.99 billion riyals. Miscellaneous non-tax revenues grew 4% to 28.87 billion riyals. Government spending in the second quarter declined 9% from a year ago, falling to 336.13 billion riyals from 368.93 billion riyals. In the first half of 2025, Saudi Arabia posted revenues of 565.21 billion riyals ($150.7 billion) and expenditures of 658.45 billion riyals ($175.5 billion), leaving a fiscal shortfall of 93.24 billion riyals ($24.8 billion). Non-oil revenues during the six-month period stood at 263.67 billion riyals, while oil revenues totaled 301.54 billion riyals. Spending during the first half declined 2% compared with the same period last year, when it reached 674.75 billion riyals. Meanwhile, the Kingdom's general reserve rose to 396.95 billion riyals by the end of H1 2025, and the current account held 102.59 billion riyals. Saudi Arabia's public debt climbed to nearly 1.39 trillion riyals by mid-2025, including 871.30 billion riyals in domestic debt and 515.14 billion riyals in external borrowing.
Asharq Al-Awsat
15 minutes ago
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Saudi Economy Grows 3.9% in Q2 on Broad Sector Gains
Saudi Arabia's economy grew by 3.9% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period a year earlier, according to flash estimates released by the General Authority for Statistics. The non-oil sector, a key pillar of the kingdom's economic diversification drive, expanded by 4.7% year-on-year, underscoring continued progress in reducing reliance on hydrocarbons. Oil activities also posted solid gains, rising by 3.8% on an annual basis, reflecting the resilience of the energy sector despite global market uncertainties. Government activities grew modestly by 0.6% over the same period. Oil activities made the largest contribution to quarterly real GDP growth, adding 1.3 percentage points, followed by non-oil activities, which contributed 0.9 percentage points. Government activities and net taxes on products each trimmed growth by 0.1 percentage points. However, when measured annually, non-oil activities emerged as the main growth engine, contributing 2.7 percentage points to the overall GDP increase. Oil activities accounted for 0.9 points, while government activities and net taxes added 0.1 and 0.2 points, respectively. The figures highlight the resilience of the Saudi economy and its growing ability to generate momentum from multiple sources, as authorities push ahead with Vision 2030 reforms aimed at reducing dependence on oil revenues. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently revised up its growth forecast for Saudi Arabia, projecting the economy will expand by 3.6% in 2025 — 0.6 percentage points higher than its April estimate — buoyed by stronger oil receipts and accelerating non-oil activity. The Fund also raised its 2026 forecast to 3.9%, from a previous estimate of 3.7%.
Arab News
an hour ago
- Arab News
Pakistan to get first US oil shipment as Cnergyico seals import deal
KARACHI/SINGAPORE: Pakistan's largest refiner Cnergyico will import 1 million barrels of oil from Vitol in October, its Vice Chairman Usama Qureshi told Reuters on Friday, marking the country's first-ever purchase of US crude following a landmark trade deal. The West Texas Intermediate light crude cargo will be loaded from Houston this month and is expected to arrive in Karachi in the second half of October, Qureshi said. 'This is a test spot cargo under our umbrella term agreement with Vitol. If it is commercially viable and available, we could import at least one cargo per month,' he said, adding that the shipment was not meant for resale. The deal follows months of multiple negotiations which first began in April, he said, after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose 29 percent tariffs on imports from Pakistan. Qureshi said Pakistan's finance and petroleum ministries encouraged local refineries to explore US crude imports after the April tariff announcement. Vitol did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent outside of office hours. On Thursday, Pakistan hailed a trade deal struck with the US, its top export market, and said the agreement would increase investments. The White House said on Thursday the US will charge a 19 percent tariff on imports from Pakistan. A key China ally, Pakistan has been warming up to Trump after he threatened tariffs. It has credited US diplomatic intervention for ending recent hostilities with neighboring India and nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. Oil is Pakistan's biggest import item and its shipments were valued at $11.3 billion in the year ended June 30, 2025, accounting for nearly a fifth of the country's total import bill. The import deal will help Pakistan diversify its crude sourcing and reduce reliance on Middle Eastern suppliers, who account for nearly all of its oil imports. 'Gross refining margin is on par with Gulf grades, and no blending or refinery tweaks are required,' Qureshi said. Cnergyico can process 156,000 barrels of crude per day and operates the country's only single-point mooring terminal near Karachi, enabling it to handle large tankers unlike other refiners in Pakistan. The company plans to install a second offshore terminal to allow larger or more frequent shipments, and to upgrade its refinery over the next five to six years, Qureshi said. The refiner, which has been operating at an average refinery run rate of 30 percent to 35 percent due to tepid local demand, is betting on growth in demand for oil products. 'We expect run rates to rise as domestic demand strengthens and local production is prioritized over imported fuels,' Qureshi said. Trump said on Wednesday the US would also cooperate with Pakistan to develop the South Asian country's 'massive oil reserves,' without providing further details.
