Out-of-control spacecraft set to crash into Earth today - where will it hit?
The Kosmos 482 Descent Craft has been floating around in outer space for more than 50 years, stuck in Earth's orbit.
It's estimated the craft will descend through the atmosphere at some point between May 8 and 12 – and the potential area it could hit when it crash lands is huge.
Marco Langbroek, a lecturer in space situational awareness at Delft Technical University in the Netherlands, has predicted its return and currently believes it will re-enter the atmosphere on Saturday, May 10 – though there is a 20-hour margin of error on either side of this.
And due to the craft being a lander designed to survive passing through Venus's atmosphere, Marco predicts it could survive re-entry through Earth's atmosphere.
Whether it survives the impact on Earth's surface remains to be seen – he warns the parachute system may not work after spending 53 years in orbit.
Discussing the risks associated with the craft's re-entry, Marco said: 'The risks involved are not particularly high, but not zero: with a mass of just under 500kg and 1metre (3ft) size, risks are somewhat similar to that of a meteorite impact.
'A re-entry analysis to ground level suggests an impact speed (after atmospheric deceleration) of about 65-70metres per second (150mph), assuming the re-entering lander did not break up or extensively ablate during re-entry.'
The potential area where the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft could land back on Earth is absolutely huge.
The craft is predicted to land anywhere between 52° north and 52° south – which covers the entirety of Africa, South America, Asia, Australia, and huge swathes of Europe and North America.
However, the potential crash zone also includes huge swathes of ocean, meaning the odds of the craft hitting a populated area are very slim.
The Kosmos 482 Descent Craft was launched on March 31, 1972, and soon after it broke into several pieces.
The craft got stuck in an elliptical orbit around Earth due to a failure in the upper stage of the rocket that launched it into space in the first place.
Its main body re-entered the atmosphere on May 5, 1981, and the rest of the craft has been orbiting the planet ever since.
If you want to keep an eye on the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft, there's a live tracking website watching its movements.
At the time of writing it was floating above the Crozet Islands, a small archipelago in the Indian Ocean, south east of the most southerly point of South Africa.
There are roughly 35,000 pieces of space debris that are more than 10cm in size being tracked by experts at the moment, with about 10,000 active satellites in orbit.
Objects caught in Earth's gravity undergo a process called orbital decay, which means they get closer and closer to the planet as time goes on until eventually falling back through the atmosphere. More Trending
Most of the time, these pieces of debris either burn up in the atmosphere or, if they survive, land in the sea or unpopulated areas.
According to the European Space Agency, about 160 large objects made uncontrolled re-entries in 2021.
And the US Federal Aviation Administration warned in 2023 that by 2035, if satellite growth continues, there could be 28,000 objects re-entering the atmosphere each year – which could be expected to kill or injure someone every two years.
Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.
For more stories like this, check our news page.
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Daily Mail
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- Daily Mail
The new space race: How the US, China, and Russia are all vying to be the first to build a nuclear reactor on the MOON
In the years of the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union tussled to prove their superiority by rushing to become the first nation to put a man on the moon. While America might have claimed that particular prize in 1969, a new and even more dramatic space race is only just beginning. This week, it was revealed that Sean Duffy, the new head of NASA, is preparing to install an American nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030. In a directive, first reported by Politico, Mr Duffy claims this would allow the US to declare a 'keep-out zone' on the lunar surface. This is seen as a necessary step towards protecting the landing site for a future American moon base, planned as part of the Artemis Programme. However, the US is far from being the only country to set its sights on our lunar satellite. In May, China and Russia signed a memorandum of cooperation to build their own nuclear reactor on the moon. 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NASA had previously planned to place a 40-kilowatt reactor on the moon in a similar timeframe, but it is not clear if they will be able to use the same designs. Mr Duffy will give NASA 30 days to appoint an official to oversee the operation and 60 days to issue a request seeking proposals from commercial companies for the project. Nuclear power is seen as key for establishing a lunar presence because it is plunged into complete, freezing darkness for two weeks every month. At the South Pole, where NASA is planning to establish its operations, the sun never rises high above the horizon and some craters are shrouded in permanent darkness. That makes it practically impossible for spacecraft or bases to survive on the moon using solar power and batteries alone. However, this sudden swing back to lunar exploration may be a product of increasing competition from other superpowers. Tellingly, Mr Duffy warned that 'the first country to do so could potentially declare a keep-out zone which would significantly inhibit the United States from establishing a planned Artemis presence if not there first.' This is almost certainly a reference to Russia and China's recent plans to build a nuclear reactor on the moon, announced in May. That reactor would be used to power the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), which should be completed by 2036 according to the latest plans. Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, wrote in a statement at the time: 'The station will conduct fundamental space research and test technology for long-term uncrewed operations of the ILRS, with the prospect of a human being's presence on the Moon.' The ILRS would be a permanent base located within 62 miles (100 km) of the moon's South Pole, involving the work of 17 countries, including Egypt, Pakistan, Venezuela, Thailand and South Africa. 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Stations and bases should be open to representatives of other states. Intergovernmental activities are also controlled by the treaty. The treaty is open to all states. The treaty can be amended. States may leave the treaty. Copies of this treaty shall be kept in governmental archives. Signatories to the treaty agree that space is 'not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means.' This explicitly means that nations are not legally able to make territorial claims on celestial bodies like the moon. However, in practice, America has recently doubled down on a far more assertive version of the law by signing a series of rules called the Artemis Accords in 2020. Critically, the Artemis Accords also gives states the power to implement 'safety zones' - exclusive areas which members of other states will not be able to enter or use without permission from the owner. 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Metro
15-07-2025
- Metro
China's new secret weapon is a flying ship dubbed 'the sea monster'
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Scottish Sun
21-06-2025
- Scottish Sun
Inside dystopian town blitzed by 450 nukes plagued by suicides & cancer-riddled families issued ‘radiation passports'
Click to share on X/Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) GROWING up in the most nuked place on Earth, Maira Abenova has helplessly watched as cancer spread through her family. After years of living near the Semipalatinsk Test Site, she told The Sun how the devastating impact of the radiation "did not spare any family". Sign up for Scottish Sun newsletter Sign up 14 The Semipalatinsk Test Site is the most nuked place on earth Credit: Getty - Contributor 14 The Semipalatinsk region in eastern Kazakhstan was a nuclear test site for the Soviet Union Credit: AFP - Getty 14 The Cold War relic sits near the border with modern day Russia Credit: Corbis Historical - Getty 14 Lake Shagan, also called the 'Atomic Lake', highlighted, is an offshoot of the Shagan River Credit: Wikipedia 14 Known as the Polygon, the 7,000 square mile nuclear testing site in north east Kazakhstan was nuked by hellish bombs from 1949 to 1989. Having been hit by a quarter of all nuclear explosions in history, Semipalatinsk Test Site was an atomic playground for Soviet scientists which was kept secret for decades. Its infamous 'Atomic Lake' was blasted into existence 60 years ago by a bomb ten times more powerful than the one dropped on Hiroshima. And one of the site's most destructive detonations reportedly caused four times as many instances of severe radiation poisoning as the Chernobyl disaster. Following 40 years of nuclear explosions which wreaked havoc on nearby communities, the consequences are still felt today. Kazakh authorities dished out eerie "radiation passports" to help and identify victims of the fallout - but these have failed to fully cover the tragic repercussions. Local resident Maira Abenova told The Sun: "After more than 30 years have passed, we can now say that for 40 years, an atomic war was waged on our beautiful land." Now a mum and grandma, Maira was raised in the neighbouring high-risk town of Semipalatinsk, which is by the Russian border and is today known as Semey. She is also the founder an advocacy group for victims of the tests called Committee Polygon 21. Maira detailed the tragic consequences of Semipalatinsk Test Site which have scarred her own life. Inside 'world's most dangerous town' Wittenoom where just breathing could kill you "In 1971, before turning 60, my mother died of esophageal cancer," she said. "At that time, we could not know the cause of this disease." After losing her mum, her sister passed away in 2013, nearly 25 years after the last recorded nuclear test. "In 2013, literally a month after surgery, my older sister passed away from breast cancer," Maira explained. Her husband was the next loved one to die as a result of the radioactive fallout. She said: "My husband was diagnosed with stomach cancer - he lived in agony for only a year and a half before he passed away." Maira continued: "Just a few months after my husband's funeral, my brother was diagnosed with lung cancer. "He survived only three months." The devastating consequences of Semipalatinsk Test Site then caught up with Maira herself. "Last autumn, I was diagnosed with the same disease," she said. "I had an operation, but I don't know how much time I have left. "Our medical system offers little hope - not because we lack good doctors, but because the healthcare system, especially in our region, is in a deeply deplorable state." 14 Maira Abenova told The Sun what it was like growing up in Semipalatinsk 14 Image of the Chagan nuclear test, which created the 'Atomic Lake' on January 15, 1965 Credit: Wikipedia 14 It features a notorious 'Atomic Lake' Credit: WIKIMEDIA 14 She added: "The worst thing is when doctors diagnose cancer. It's like a death sentence. "A sentence of a painful death. Without proper help and treatment." Maira also noted that her local cancer clinic was "always overcrowded". Kazakhstan authorities estimate 1.5 million people have been exposed to the test site's residual fallout. Nearby populations suffered elevated rates of cancer, heart disease and infertility which were all linked to the tests. More babies were born with defects, missing limbs, Down syndrome and other disabilities - while the number of suicide rates among young people also rose. A local city hall official even made the shocking claim that "people in the villages got used to suicides", according to a UN report. And grandma-of-two Maira confirmed this epidemic, saying that after the closure of the site, the higher rates of suicide were known as "Kainarsky syndrome". Despite the first ever bomb going off on August 29, 1949, four years after the end of World War II, radiation levels are still elevated, and children continue to be born with genetic mutations. Maira said: "This evil did not spare any family." Reflecting on these haunting health impacts, she described the aspect that continues to trouble her most. "As for the photos showing the aftermath of the tests, I'd say the most frightening consequences aren't the physical deformities or developmental anomalies," she said. "But rather the lingering fear — the fear of dying from an illness that might not be visible on the outside. "The fear of a young woman giving birth to a child with disabilities, and so on." 14 A total of 456 nuclear tests were conducted at the site Credit: AFP - Getty 14 Maira's very own 'radiation passport' 14 Statue of Igor Kurchatov, the 'father' of the Soviet nuclear program, in the city he was named after Credit: Getty The campaigner also detailed a closed-off town called Kurchatov which was built as the headquarters for the testing site and was only accessible with an official pass. Codenamed Semipalatinsk 21, the base was full of nuclear scientists and military officers, and located on the picturesque bank of the Irtysh River. The top-secret town had 50,000 or so inhabitants who were all supplied with high quality produce sent straight from the capital. Meanwhile, locals outside the town lived in relative squalor with "empty store shelves", Maira explained. "It was built in a short time," she said of the city, which has been dubbed the Soviet version of Los Alamos. "Since the city was built by the military, it resembles a military town - strict lines and no frills." The activist added that scientists timed each blast to match the wind direction - making sure the deadly fallout always blew away from their own HQ. And typical Soviet cover-ups meant that even the locals were unaware of the nearby tests for years. "We didn't know about it until the late 1980s, when information about the terrible tests conducted near us began to leak out to the public," she recalled. Semipalatinsk's role in the Cold War by Harvey Geh Semipalatinsk Test Site, also known as the Polygon, played a central role in the Soviet Union's push to win the nuclear arms race during the Cold War. On August 29, 1949, the USSR detonated its first-ever atomic bomb at Semipalatinsk, just four years after the U.S. bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki. That explosion - codenamed RDS-1 or "First Lightning" - ended America's nuclear monopoly and officially launched the Cold War arms race. It was a near-copy of the US-made 'Fat Man' plutonium bomb, which America dropped on Nagasaki, Japan in August 1945. Following the landmark explosion, Semipalatinsk became the main site for testing each nuclear development the Soviet Union made, including hydrogen bombs and experimental warheads. This allowed the USSR to gain data on blast yields and radiation fallout. From its inception in 1949 to its closure in 1989 with the fall of the Berlin Wall, 116 bombs were detonated in the atmosphere, while 240 exploded underground. A law created in 1992 meant victims could apply for a "radiation passport", which confirmed their exposure to the fallout and qualified them for certain benefits. Each person who had their application approved was given a little beige book with a big blue mushroom cloud on its front cover. Those holding their own document could then receive things like monthly compensation cash and longer holidays. This system was said to have worked in its initial phases. But these days, the scheme is ineffective, according to Maira. She is now part of a renewed push to improve compensation and bring real justice to the lives of many who have been impacted. Maira said: "The law that was passed in 1992 is effectively defunct today, and its current provisions are discriminatory." 14 Observation tower ruins at the former Semipalatinsk nuclear test site in Kazakhstan Credit: Getty 14 The nuclear scientists were based in Kurchatov, named after renowned Soviet nuclear physicist Igor Kurchatov Credit: Getty The passport grants holders £30 per month in benefits - barely enough to cover current medical costs - and those who move to live in a different region are disqualified from getting the money. Many locals have reportedly found it challenging to get official recognition for their children to also obtain the document. Emphasising the importance of petitioning for better support, Maira explained: "The hardest thing for us is that we feel doomed and unprotected." Maira also heads the human rights organisation DOM, which has also played an important role forming initiatives aimed at protecting the rights of victims of nuclear tests. She says on social media that for the last three years, the organisation has been working "to shape new ways of addressing victims, to achieve significant change, and to expand dialogue with the state and the international community." Maira has won awards for her work supporting victims of the tests and participated in UN meetings calling for the ban of nuclear weapons. She left Committee Polygon 21 earlier this month but continues to work with victims of nuclear fallout through her leading role at DOM. It is believed that more than one million people resided in and around Semipalatinsk - but today, only a few thousand people remain. The International Day against Nuclear Tests occurs every year on August 29, the day the first bomb went off in Semipalatinsk Test Site. Despite neighbouring locals living through the nuclear fallout of the site, it remains unclear exactly how dangerous living in the region is today. Scavengers have excavated the site in hopes of selling off scrap metal, while locals are known to use the "Atomic Lake" as a fishing spot. Maira said she was aware locals like to go fishing there as they "have come to believe that it is safe". But since the landscape has been marred by nearly half a century of nuclear bombing, she said the area had partly lost its beauty. "It is more reminiscent of the surface of the moon," she said. "A steppe and granite hills that have crumbled over time... scattered across by the atomic explosions."
