Sell Microsoft Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is set to announce its earnings report on Wednesday, July 30, 2025. While the actual results in relation to analyst expectations will be the main factor influencing stock movement, event-driven traders might find it useful to examine historical trends.
In the last five years, Microsoft's stock has displayed a slight inclination towards negative one-day returns following earnings announcements. In 53% of cases, the stock saw a negative one-day return, with a median decrease of -3.3% and a maximum one-day plunge of -7.7%.
For event-driven traders, there are two primary strategies to utilize historical data:
Analysts predict Microsoft will report earnings of $3.38 per share along with revenues of $73.81 billion. This is in comparison to the same quarter last year, when the company announced earnings of $2.95 per share on revenues of $64.73 billion.
From a fundamental standpoint, Microsoft holds a substantial current market capitalization of $3.8 trillion. During the past twelve months, the company generated $270 billion in revenue, showcasing robust profitability with $122 billion in operating profits and a net income of $97 billion.
That being said, if you are looking for upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and achieved returns surpassing 91% since its launch. Also, check out – QuantumScape: QS Stock To $0?
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Microsoft's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional information for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is compiled along with the statistics in the table below.
MSFT 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A comparatively lower-risk strategy (although not effective if the correlation is weak) is to understand the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, identify a pair that exhibits the highest correlation, and perform the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D reveal the strongest correlation, a trader can position themselves 'long' for the following 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D indicates the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
MSFT Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Occasionally, peer performance can impact the stock reaction following earnings. In fact, the pricing might start before the earnings announcements are made. Here is some historical information on the past post-earnings performance of Microsoft stock compared to the stock performance of peers that reported earnings shortly before Microsoft. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also illustrate post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
MSFT Correlation With Peer Earnings
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Total orders, which means all orders through its marketplaces and commerce platform, also jumped 20% to 761 million in the quarter. That's more than the 749 million analysts had anticipated. Shares rose as much as 3% after the results. Marketplace GOV, which is the total dollar value of transactions completed through the marketplace, including taxes, tips, and fees related to DashPass and its international platform Wolt+, clocked in at $24.2 billion compared to the expected $23.6 billion. Year to date, the stock has been on a tear, up more than 50%, compared to the S&P 500's (^GSPC) 8% gain. The company said total orders were driven by strength in the US restaurant category, as its DashPass membership members ordered more frequently. It added that it continues to "improve the value proposition" for its DashPass membership. DoorDash expects marketplace GOV in the current quarter to come in between $24.2 billion and $24.7 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to fall between $680 million and$780 million in its third quarter. DoorDash (DASH) reported second quarter results that beat on both the top and bottom lines on Wednesday, with its orders also rising more than forecast. Earnings per share came in at $0.65, $0.20 more than the Street had forecast. Adjusted EBITDA reached $655 million in the quarter. Revenue grew 25% year over year to $3.28 billion, compared to the $3.17 billion the Street predicted. Total orders, which means all orders through its marketplaces and commerce platform, also jumped 20% to 761 million in the quarter. That's more than the 749 million analysts had anticipated. Shares rose as much as 3% after the results. Marketplace GOV, which is the total dollar value of transactions completed through the marketplace, including taxes, tips, and fees related to DashPass and its international platform Wolt+, clocked in at $24.2 billion compared to the expected $23.6 billion. Year to date, the stock has been on a tear, up more than 50%, compared to the S&P 500's (^GSPC) 8% gain. The company said total orders were driven by strength in the US restaurant category, as its DashPass membership members ordered more frequently. It added that it continues to "improve the value proposition" for its DashPass membership. DoorDash expects marketplace GOV in the current quarter to come in between $24.2 billion and $24.7 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to fall between $680 million and$780 million in its third quarter. Shopify stock soars on upbeat forecast, 31% revenue growth Shopify (SHOP) stock surged 18% before the opening bell after the commerce technology company provided an upbeat forecast and positive results. Gross profit rose to $1.3 billion in the quarter, while revenue reached $2.68 billion, compared to estimates of $2.54 billion. Shopify's second quarter revenue marked a 31% increase from a year ago as the company benefited from investments in product features and artificial intelligence. For the third quarter, Shopify anticipates revenue to grow at a mid-to-high twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis. Gross profit dollars are expected to grow at a low-twenties percentage rate annually. 'Today's results are the payoff from bold bets we made years ago,' Shopify president Harley Finkelstein said in a statement. 'The investments we're making now will fuel our next chapter.' Listen to Shopify's earnings call live here. Shopify (SHOP) stock surged 18% before the opening bell after the commerce technology company provided an upbeat forecast and positive results. Gross profit rose to $1.3 billion in the quarter, while revenue reached $2.68 billion, compared to estimates of $2.54 billion. Shopify's second quarter revenue marked a 31% increase from a year ago as the company benefited from investments in product features and artificial intelligence. For the third quarter, Shopify anticipates revenue to grow at a mid-to-high twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis. Gross profit dollars are expected to grow at a low-twenties percentage rate annually. 'Today's results are the payoff from bold bets we made years ago,' Shopify president Harley Finkelstein said in a statement. 'The investments we're making now will fuel our next chapter.' Listen to Shopify's earnings call live here. Uber beats second quarter estimates, unveils $20 billion stock buyback program Uber (UBER) stock gained around 1% in premarket trading after the ride-hailing company announced a $20 billion stock buyback program and lifted its bookings guidance for the third quarter. Uber's second quarter profits rose to $0.63 per share from $0.47 per share a year ago, roughly in line with estimates. Revenue topped estimates at $12.66 billion for the quarter, compared to $12.46 billion expected. Reuters reports: Uber (UBER) stock gained around 1% in premarket trading after the ride-hailing company announced a $20 billion stock buyback program and lifted its bookings guidance for the third quarter. Uber's second quarter profits rose to $0.63 per share from $0.47 per share a year ago, roughly in line with estimates. Revenue topped estimates at $12.66 billion for the quarter, compared to $12.46 billion expected. Reuters reports: Novavax beats quarterly revenue estimates on milestone payment Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. Novo Nordisk misses Wall Street estimates for Q2 earnings on slower GLP-1 sales Novo Nordisk (NVO) missed estimates on the top and bottom lines for the second quarter, sending shares about 2.5% lower in premarket trading. The company reported earnings per share of $5.96, falling short of the $6.06 earnings per share Wall Street expected. Revenue barely missed estimates, coming in at $11.95 billion versus estimates of $11.97 billion. Novo Nordisk reported overall sales rose 16% year over year. Yahoo Finance's Anjalee Khemlani reports that its two blockbuster diabetes and weight-loss drugs — Wegovy and Ozempic — brought in about two-thirds of total revenue reported in the quarter, or $7.9 billion. Anjalee writes: Read more here. Novo Nordisk (NVO) missed estimates on the top and bottom lines for the second quarter, sending shares about 2.5% lower in premarket trading. The company reported earnings per share of $5.96, falling short of the $6.06 earnings per share Wall Street expected. Revenue barely missed estimates, coming in at $11.95 billion versus estimates of $11.97 billion. Novo Nordisk reported overall sales rose 16% year over year. Yahoo Finance's Anjalee Khemlani reports that its two blockbuster diabetes and weight-loss drugs — Wegovy and Ozempic — brought in about two-thirds of total revenue reported in the quarter, or $7.9 billion. Anjalee writes: Read more here. McDonald's stock rises after company reverses US sales slump McDonald's (MCD) reported a return to sales growth in the second quarter, as global comparable sales jumped 3.8%, above analysts' estimates for a 2.5% increase. US same-store sales increased 2.5% in the company's fiscal second quarter, marking a turnaround from the 3.6% drop in the first quarter and above estimates of 2.3%. US same-store sales fell 0.7% in the same quarter last year. McDonald's stock rose 3.6% in premarket trading. Yahoo Finance's Brooke DiPalma reports: Read more here. McDonald's (MCD) reported a return to sales growth in the second quarter, as global comparable sales jumped 3.8%, above analysts' estimates for a 2.5% increase. US same-store sales increased 2.5% in the company's fiscal second quarter, marking a turnaround from the 3.6% drop in the first quarter and above estimates of 2.3%. US same-store sales fell 0.7% in the same quarter last year. McDonald's stock rose 3.6% in premarket trading. Yahoo Finance's Brooke DiPalma reports: Read more here. Disney lifts profit outlook as parks, streaming drive Q3 earnings beat Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal reports: Read more here. Honda Q1 profit halves on tariffs, but raises outlook Shares in Honda Motor (HMC) rose 2% premarket after the automaker reported a 50% drop in first-quarter operating profit on Wednesday as a stronger yen and the impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs took its toll, but the company raised its full-year forecast. Reuters reports: Read more here. Shares in Honda Motor (HMC) rose 2% premarket after the automaker reported a 50% drop in first-quarter operating profit on Wednesday as a stronger yen and the impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs took its toll, but the company raised its full-year forecast. Reuters reports: Read more here. Opendoor stock plunges on earnings after meme stock rally Opendoor (OPEN) stock sank precipitously following earnings. Shares of the iBuyer platform, which has become a retail investor darling in recent weeks, dropped as much as 19% despite beats on the top and bottom lines. The stock went on a wild ride in July as retail trader enthusiasm and a thesis from investor and Carvana spotter Eric Jackson bid up shares. Over the past month, Opendoor stock has climbed over 300%. That might be partly why the stock is selling off on the earnings news. The company reported a loss per share of $0.01 for the quarter, compared to estimates for a loss per share of $0.03. Revenue grew 4% annually to $1.6 billion, also above Wall Street analysts' expectations for revenue of $1.5 billion. For the third quarter, Opendoor forecast revenue from $800 million to $875 million. Opendoor (OPEN) stock sank precipitously following earnings. Shares of the iBuyer platform, which has become a retail investor darling in recent weeks, dropped as much as 19% despite beats on the top and bottom lines. The stock went on a wild ride in July as retail trader enthusiasm and a thesis from investor and Carvana spotter Eric Jackson bid up shares. Over the past month, Opendoor stock has climbed over 300%. That might be partly why the stock is selling off on the earnings news. The company reported a loss per share of $0.01 for the quarter, compared to estimates for a loss per share of $0.03. Revenue grew 4% annually to $1.6 billion, also above Wall Street analysts' expectations for revenue of $1.5 billion. For the third quarter, Opendoor forecast revenue from $800 million to $875 million. Snap stock drops on weaker-than-expected revenue growth Snap (SNAP) stock declined nearly 15% after Snap reported its slowest revenue growth in more than a year. The Snapchat-parent's net loss in Q2 increased to $263 million from $249 million a year ago. Second quarter revenue rose 8.1% to $1.34 billion, largely in line with estimates. Reuters reports: Read more here. Snap (SNAP) stock declined nearly 15% after Snap reported its slowest revenue growth in more than a year. The Snapchat-parent's net loss in Q2 increased to $263 million from $249 million a year ago. Second quarter revenue rose 8.1% to $1.34 billion, largely in line with estimates. Reuters reports: Read more here. AMD posts mixed Q2 results but offers better than expected Q3 outlook on AI sales Yahoo Finance's Daniel Howley reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Daniel Howley reports: Read more here. Super Micro stock tanks after quarterly revenue miss Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock plunged 15% after the company's fiscal fourth quarter revenue fell short of estimates amid intense competition for AI server makers. Here's what Super Micro reported against Wall Street consensus estimates compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence: Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock plunged 15% after the company's fiscal fourth quarter revenue fell short of estimates amid intense competition for AI server makers. Here's what Super Micro reported against Wall Street consensus estimates compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence: Lucid misses on both top and bottom lines, trims production forecast Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports: Read more here. Rivian reports mixed Q2 results, widens 2025 loss projection as tariffs and loss of EV tax credit bite Tariffs and other policies weighed on Rivian's (RIVN) bottom line in the second quarter. For the quarter, Rivian reported a $0.97 loss per share, compared to $0.77 expected, per Bloomberg consensus estimates, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $667 million versus $493 million expected. The EV maker also did not report a gross profit. Rivian reported revenue of $1.303 billion, compared to $1.28 billion expected and $1.158 billion a year ago. The company also widened its full-year loss projection but increased its EBITDA guidance. Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports: Read more here. Tariffs and other policies weighed on Rivian's (RIVN) bottom line in the second quarter. For the quarter, Rivian reported a $0.97 loss per share, compared to $0.77 expected, per Bloomberg consensus estimates, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $667 million versus $493 million expected. The EV maker also did not report a gross profit. Rivian reported revenue of $1.303 billion, compared to $1.28 billion expected and $1.158 billion a year ago. The company also widened its full-year loss projection but increased its EBITDA guidance. Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports: Read more here. Rivian Q2 earnings preview: EV tax credit impact, R2 SUV update on the agenda Pure-play EV maker Rivian (RIVN) has been building toward profitability, but the loss of federal EV tax credits expiring at the end of September will likely hurt the company's ability to scale up sales. Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian previews what to expect when Rivian reports second quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday: Read more here. Pure-play EV maker Rivian (RIVN) has been building toward profitability, but the loss of federal EV tax credits expiring at the end of September will likely hurt the company's ability to scale up sales. Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian previews what to expect when Rivian reports second quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday: Read more here. Yum Brands stock falls amid underperformance in the US Yum Brands (YUM) stock fell over 3% on Tuesday after an earnings miss and weaker-than-expected sales in the US amid a tougher consumer environment. "Even with a solid overall top line performance, we have opportunities to improve performance in underperforming regions such as the US and parts of Europe, where challenges stem from gaps in value perception, inconsistent consumer experience, and innovation that has not fully resonated with consumers," Yum Brands CEO David Gibbs said on the earnings call. The Taco Bell parent company reported earnings per share of $1.44 adjusted versus $1.46 expected, according to estimates compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Revenue for the quarter hit $1.93 billion, roughly in line with the $1.94 billion expected. US same-store sales for KFC and Pizza Hut fell 5% year over year. US system sales for Taco Bell grew 6%. Yum Brands (YUM) stock fell over 3% on Tuesday after an earnings miss and weaker-than-expected sales in the US amid a tougher consumer environment. "Even with a solid overall top line performance, we have opportunities to improve performance in underperforming regions such as the US and parts of Europe, where challenges stem from gaps in value perception, inconsistent consumer experience, and innovation that has not fully resonated with consumers," Yum Brands CEO David Gibbs said on the earnings call. The Taco Bell parent company reported earnings per share of $1.44 adjusted versus $1.46 expected, according to estimates compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Revenue for the quarter hit $1.93 billion, roughly in line with the $1.94 billion expected. US same-store sales for KFC and Pizza Hut fell 5% year over year. US system sales for Taco Bell grew 6%. Lemonade stock jumps on solid guidance Lemonade (LMND) stock jumped 8% in premarket trading as the insurance company kicked off its earnings call and reported a narrower loss than expected. In the second quarter, Lemonade posted a loss of $0.60 per share. Analysts were expecting an $0.80 per share loss. Revenue of $164.1 million beat estimates for $160.8 million and rose 34% from the same period a year ago. Gross profit increased by 109% year on year to $64.3 million, while gross margin improved by 14 points to 39%, the company said. Lemonade also raised its full-year revenue guidance to $710 million-$715 million. Listen to the earnings call here. Lemonade (LMND) stock jumped 8% in premarket trading as the insurance company kicked off its earnings call and reported a narrower loss than expected. In the second quarter, Lemonade posted a loss of $0.60 per share. Analysts were expecting an $0.80 per share loss. Revenue of $164.1 million beat estimates for $160.8 million and rose 34% from the same period a year ago. Gross profit increased by 109% year on year to $64.3 million, while gross margin improved by 14 points to 39%, the company said. Lemonade also raised its full-year revenue guidance to $710 million-$715 million. Listen to the earnings call here. Caterpillar warns of up to $1.5 billion tariff hit, profit misses on weak demand Caterpillar (CAT) is expecting a bigger hit from tariffs in the third quarter and the rest of 2025 than it initially projected, as President Trump's tariffs hit the industrial and manufacturing segment especially hard. The company flagged a tariff impact of $400 million to $500 million in the third quarter and $1.5 billion hit from costs tied to US tariffs in 2025. Caterpillar was able to offset some of the higher tariff costs; however, higher interest rates and a slowdown in US construction activity led to a pullback in demand for its products. The heavy machinery manufacturer reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.72 on revenue of $16.6 billion. Analysts were expecting adjusted EPS of $4.90 on revenue of $16.3 billion, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Caterpillar stock fell less than 1% in premarket trading. Caterpillar (CAT) is expecting a bigger hit from tariffs in the third quarter and the rest of 2025 than it initially projected, as President Trump's tariffs hit the industrial and manufacturing segment especially hard. The company flagged a tariff impact of $400 million to $500 million in the third quarter and $1.5 billion hit from costs tied to US tariffs in 2025. Caterpillar was able to offset some of the higher tariff costs; however, higher interest rates and a slowdown in US construction activity led to a pullback in demand for its products. The heavy machinery manufacturer reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.72 on revenue of $16.6 billion. Analysts were expecting adjusted EPS of $4.90 on revenue of $16.3 billion, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Caterpillar stock fell less than 1% in premarket trading. Sign in to access your portfolio
