JD Vance is already campaigning for Trump's ‘third term'

The Hill

31-01-2025

A week after the November 2022 midterm elections, then-former President Donald Trump announced his 2024 presidential campaign. Over the next two years, he systematically steamrolled his primary opponents and triumphed over every imaginable political, electoral and legal obstacle to win a historic non-consecutive second term.
I was reminded of the president's 'start-early' strategy on the morning after Inauguration Day when I received a Trump campaign fundraising email e-signed by Vice President JD Vance — less than 24 hours after taking office. From my perspective, the email silently screamed, 'Vance 2028!'
The newly minted vice president chronicled his 'I grew up poor in the Rust Belt' biography and the 'incredible journey that led me here.' Vance recounted Trump's words when asking him to join the ticket: 'I think we've gotta go save this country,' Trump had said. 'I think you're the guy who could help me in the best way. You can help me govern, you could help me win.''
The closing paragraph read like a typical campaign solicitation: 'President Trump and I are ready to keep the American Dream alive for future generations …' followed by a request for 'even just $5 — to support our new administration.'
Considering the email's post-inauguration timing, I took Vance to mean that MAGA Nation must look to the future, since Trump is a lame duck. As the natural 2028 front-runner, he is already doing the work of securing the GOP nomination and looking to extend triumphant Trumpism through Jan. 20, 2037.
That same fundraising email address — a generic one from the Republican National Committee and 'Paid for by Trump National Committee' — had sent me six other Vance email blasts just this month. All the emails point to Team Trump and the RNC being invested in promoting and building Vance's brand as Trump's worthy successor. The MAGA base is already being conditioned to accept Vance as the 2028 nominee. The party itself may be trying to avoid a contentious primary.
But Trump-world is likely thinking well beyond the 2028 primaries. Before our eyes, Vance is being strategically groomed and sent to battle the traditional media — positioning him to win Trump's 'third term.'
It was a Republican-controlled House of Representatives that passed the 22nd Amendment in 1947, limiting future presidents to only two elected terms. This was a reaction to President Franklin Roosevelt's four consecutive election victories from 1932 to 1944. Over the next four years after House passage, three-quarters of the states ratified the amendment as required by law. This means Trump can never run again, barring an unlikely new amendment to or an egregious breach of the Constitution.
The continuation of Trumpism without Trump — who turns 82 in 2028 — is among the highest priorities for his family and MAGA-world. Viewed through that lens, you can expect Vance to play a leading role in Trump's second term.
He could even be the most powerful vice president since Dick Cheney served with President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2009. The big difference is that Cheney had no interest in succeeding Bush. (Interestingly, Ronald Reagan's two-term vice president, George H.W. Bush, was the last VP to win his predecessor's 'third term.' In 1988, Bush won the last bona fide Republican landslide with 426 electoral votes.)
As a powerful vice president, Vance might attempt to land the Republican presidential nomination without a primary ruckus. The GOP could even welcome a Vance 'coronation' to contrast with what is sure to be a crowded and brutal fight for the Democratic Party's future in 2028.
Vance's most likely opponent is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who terms out of office in January 2027. The governor's problem is that the MAGA forces who annihilated DeSantis during his 2023 presidential campaign bellyflop are still viable and likely anticipating round two.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio could also be a threat, but Trump chose Vance over Rubio as the vice presidential nominee. And the echoes of Rubio's disastrous 2016 presidential campaign have never dissipated with Trump loyalists. Moreover, Rubio's tenure at the State Department could potentially become a MAGA liability.
With the power of incumbency, Vance does not fear DeSantis or Rubio. He likely only fears one potential opponent, from whom Vance milks the money machine and benefits from his campaign infrastructure. That would be the volatile Trump himself, who at any time could turn on him or else unwillingly damage his prospects.
The outcome and ripple effects of the 2026 midterm election could either complicate or enhance Vance's chances. The worst case is if Trump becomes a liability. How does Vance run for president and carve his political identity with angry and unpopular Trump continually venting or contradicting Vance on Truth Social?
On the other hand, if the Republicans hold Congress and Trump is popular, look to Vice President George Bush's 1988 victory playbook.
Will Vance, like Trump, announce his campaign a week after the 2026 midterms, to show strength and keep serious opponents at bay? Will Vance 'go rogue,' as Mike Pence once did, if he and Trump have significant policy differences or transactional constitutional conflicts? Or will he bite his lip and put on a repeat performance of his recent embarrassing public acquiescence to Trump's blanket Jan. 6 pardons?
Finally, there is some good news for young Trump-supporters. Vance, who turns 44 in 2028, could end the reign of Baby Boomer presidents — Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump — permanently.
Imagine if Vance were to choose soon-to-be UN Ambassador Elise Stefanik (born 1984) as his running mate. These two Yale and Harvard graduates could lead a Millennial takeover of the presidency.
If Vance ever writes a second book — 'Hillbillly Elegy Part 2: The White House Years' — it will probably have to begin and end with Trump.