Seagate Stock Skyrockets 80% in 2025. Here's Why STX Might Still Be a Steal
Seagate is seeing surging demand for its mass-capacity storage products. As cloud computing expands and data centers scale up to support AI applications, the demand for high-capacity hard drives continues to soar. Seagate is well-positioned to capitalize on this opportunity. Its products have become essential for hyperscale cloud providers and enterprises alike, making it a natural beneficiary of the AI-driven data explosion.
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The company's financials reflect the solid demand trends. Seagate recently closed fiscal 2025 on a solid note. Revenue surged 39% in fiscal 2025, adjusted gross profit nearly doubled, and operating profit more than tripled. This solid performance is driven by its supply-demand alignment, tight cost controls, and a focus on high-value products.
Quarterly performance has been just as impressive. In the most recent fiscal fourth quarter, revenue jumped 30% year-over-year, while adjusted gross margin expanded 170 basis points sequentially. This sustained improvement reflects the company's shift toward a build-to-order (BTO) manufacturing model, supply discipline, and dynamic pricing strategies, all of which have helped the company maintain profitability even in competitive markets.
Seagate Is in a Solid Growth Phase
Seagate is in a solid growth phase, with no signs of losing momentum. It continues to see strong demand for its products, a trend that is expected to drive both its financials and share price higher. Management is optimistic about margin expansion, thanks to the accelerating adoption of its next-generation Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR)–based Mozaic drives.
Looking ahead, mass capacity storage remains a key growth driver. Seagate is ramping production of its HAMR-based Mozaic products and gaining traction with customers at an impressive pace. Three major cloud service providers have already qualified these drives, with more customers moving through the qualification process smoothly. Demand from cloud providers is surging, and even the enterprise OEM market is showing signs of life, with nearline sales posting modest sequential gains. Management expects this demand to hold steady in the months ahead.
The company's BTO strategy provides visibility into solid future sales and margins, strengthening confidence in ongoing demand for its high-capacity nearline drives.
Seagate is also navigating global challenges well. By diversifying its manufacturing footprint and supply chains, Seagate is mitigating risks from evolving trade policies and tariffs, minimizing any potential impact on operations or results.
Financially, Seagate is also making meaningful progress in fortifying its balance sheet. As of the end of June, the company had reduced its debt to $5 billion. Strong profitability combined with lower debt has brought its net leverage ratio down to 1.8 times. With profit expansion expected in the coming quarter, further improvement in leverage is on the horizon.
STX Stock Looks Attractive on Valuation
Seagate stock has appreciated significantly so far this year. However, it offers significant value near the current price levels. The company is poised to benefit from the strong long-term demand for mass data storage, driven by cloud providers and edge IoT customers ramping up investments in AI-powered initiatives.
Despite these tailwinds, STX shares remain relatively inexpensive. Currently, Seagate is trading at a forward price-earnings ratio of just 16.8x. The stock looks too cheap to ignore, considering its growth prospects. Analysts project earnings per share (EPS) to jump by 24.1% in fiscal 2026 and another 29.4% in 2027, suggesting that the market may not yet be fully pricing in Seagate's potential.
STX Stock Is a Steal Right Now
Seagate's remarkable surge in 2025 has kept analysts cautiously optimistic about its prospects. However, strong demand for its high-capacity storage products, growing traction for HAMR-based Mozaic drives, a healthier balance sheet, and low valuation could keep Seagate's momentum going.
On the date of publication, Amit Singh did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
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Stock market today: Dow rises, S&P 500, Nasdaq slide as tech stocks slip again amid rate-cut uncertainty
US stocks mostly slid on Wednesday, continuing a bruising stretch for tech stocks as investors weighed the latest retail earnings and assessed Federal Reserve minutes for clues on interest-rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) closed slightly higher, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the losses, declining about 0.7%. The Nasdaq had been down nearly 2% earlier in the session before recovering. After a nearly 10% drop on Tuesday, Palantir (PLTR) fell another 1% in afternoon trade after slipping as much as 9% earlier in the day. The tech-led sell-off has put markets on edge, as investors rotate out of riskier stocks into previously lagging sectors amid concerns about the AI boom's staying power. Meanwhile, Wednesday's release of minutes from the Fed's July meeting showed the two policymakers who voted against the decision to leave rates unchanged appeared largely alone in that opinion. Investors are eager for a sense of where policymakers stand on interest rate cuts after economic data this month revealed they face a tricky dilemma between a weakening labor market and stubborn inflation. Attention is also on the latest batch of big retail earnings, with Target's (TGT) results the highlight on Wednesday. Target eked out a profit beat and held to its guidance, but pressures from tariffs and a squeezed consumer added up to another downbeat quarter — and will pose challenges for newly announced CEO Michael Fiddelke. Its shares sank 6%. Next up are Walmart (WMT) earnings on Thursday, watched for further signs of how companies and consumers are handing President Trump's tariffs. Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs The main event for Wall Street lands on Friday, when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming. Tech, chip stock sell-off continues as AI bubble fears mount Yahoo Finance's Laura Bratton reports: Tech stocks fell for a second day on Wednesday as investors sold off a slew of tech names amid concerns over the sustainability of the AI boom and a recent market rotation away from some of this year's biggest winners. Among the Magnificent Seven Big Tech stocks, Nvidia (NVDA) was down about 0.3%, and Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) stock fell more than 1%. Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL), shares fell over 1%. Chip stocks Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) both fell less than 1%; Micron (MU) shares plummeted nearly 4%. Read more here. Retail traders double down on Palantir despite recent stock slide Palantir (PLTR) shares dropped another 1% on Wednesday following a sharp 9% slide on Tuesday. But retail investors saw the drop as a buying opportunity. According to data provided to Yahoo Finance from Vanda Research, small investors poured over $59 million into Palantir during Tuesday's sell-off, marking the biggest single-day retail inflow in a week. That came on top of another $40 million in inflows the day before. The surge in retail demand highlights a classic 'buy the dip' mentality that has dominated markets since the April bottom. In the days leading up to the sell-off, retail flows had been steady but more modest, averaging in the $20 to $30 million range, according to Vanda. The jump in activity suggests everyday traders were not scared off by the stock's sudden slide. Instead, they leaned in. But even with retail piling in, the stock still fell hard. That divergence underscores a familiar market reality: while retail can be a powerful force, institutional selling pressure often sets the tone. "Retail has gotten to be such a huge percentage of the market in terms of day-to-day trading," Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday. "But if a series of institutions decide to reallocate their portfolio holdings, you're standing in the way of a much larger piece of momentum." "Collectively, a whole lot of small traders can push back, but if [institutions] are relentless about the selling, that's going to move the market lower.' Sosnick called Palantir's 9% plunge a 'shocking move down,' but also pointed out that the stock's meteoric rise has left it trading at "about as expensive of a stock as we've seen." James Hardie stock collapses 35% as US housing slump hits building materials Yahoo Finance's Ines Ferre reports: James Hardie (JHX) stock tumbled 35% on Wednesday as the maker of high-end home siding pointed to a weak US housing market and homeowners reluctant to spend on big projects. The stock, listed in the US and Australia, saw its biggest one-day drop since 1973, according to Bloomberg data. The company's profit declined 28% year over year during its fiscal first quarter. Net sales tumbled 9% over the same period. "Uncertainty is a common thread throughout conversations with customer and contractor partners," CEO Aaron Erter said during the company's earnings call. James Hardie pointed to "softer demand," citing a slowdown in single-family construction activity, especially in the southern part of the US. Read more here. Fed minutes show majority of officials more concerned about inflation than employment Minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting showed the "majority" of officials were more concerned about the upside risk to inflation than downside risks to the Fed's mandate for maximum employment. "Regarding upside risks to inflation, participants pointed to the uncertain effects of tariffs and the possibility of inflation expectations becoming unanchored," the minutes read. "In addition to tariff-induced risks, potential downside risks to employment mentioned by participants included a possible tightening of financial conditions due to a rise in risk premiums, a more substantial deterioration in the housing market, and the risk that the increased use of AI in the workplace may lower employment." Read more about the Fed minutes here. Eight sectors are outperforming the S&P 500 on Wednesday Citi head of US equity trading strategy Stuart Kaiser noted on Tuesday that the recent pain the stock market has "remained localized." And that's holding true on Wednesday too despite a roughly 1% decline in the Nasdaq Composite. The pain is mostly in technology and other related areas of the market with eight of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 (^GSPC)outperforming the benchmark index. While the size of tech in the index is pulling down the overall S&P 500 there are actually still 265 stocks in positive territory with a little over two hours left in the trading session. For now the rotation in the market isn't shaking a bullish stance from Kaiser who remains positive on US equities with a "quality preference." Below is a look at the sector action thus far in Wednesday's trade. Google unveils latest Pixel phones, including foldable Pixel 10 Pro Fold Yahoo Finance's Dan Howley reports: Google (GOOG, GOOGL) announced its latest line of Pixel smartphones on Wednesday as part of its Made By Google event in New York City on Wednesday. The Pixel 10 lineup includes four phones: the Pixel 10, Pixel 10 Pro, Pixel 10 Pro XL, and Pixel 10 Pro Fold. The company also showed off its newest smartwatch, the Pixel Watch 4. The devices get Google's latest Gemini AI capabilities, including the company's new Magic Cue for its smartphones and enhanced smart replies for the watch. Starting at $799, the entry-level Pixel 10 now comes with three rear cameras, up from two. That includes a 5x telephoto camera. Inside, the 6.3-inch phone gets Google's latest Tensor G5 processor, 12GB of RAM, and upwards of 256GB of storage. The Pixel 10 Pro starts at $999 and gets a sharper 6.3-inch display and more-advanced triple-camera setup. And while the phone packs the same Tensor G5 processor as the standard Pixel 10, the Pro sports 16GB of RAM rather than 12GB and offers up to 512GB of storage. Read more here. Hertz stock jumps on deal to sell its used cars on Amazon Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports: Rental car firm Hertz (HTZ) struck a deal with Amazon Autos (AMZN) on Wednesday to sell some of its used car inventory. The company said this will make it easier for customers to purchase cars from its fleet. Starting today, customers can search Amazon Autos to browse, finance, and purchase from thousands of used Hertz fleet vehicles from brands like Ford, Toyota, Chevrolet, Nissan, and others. Hertz Car Sales, the rental car firm's used car sales arm, will be the first fleet dealer on Amazon Autos. Hertz said sales will begin in the Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, and Seattle metro areas, with plans to expand to Hertz Car Sales' 45 locations nationwide. After customers complete their purchase online, they can pick up the vehicles at Hertz locations in those cities. Read more here. KeyBanc warns China headwinds could prompt an Nvidia earnings miss Yahoo Finance's Francisco Velasquez reports: Read more here. Big Tech is getting hammered again Tuesday's market action was all about isolated selling in some of the market's biggest winners. Wednesday's early session has brought more of the same, as Big Tech is clearly leading the selling action once more. After a nearly 10% drop on Tuesday, Palantir (PLTR) fell another 7% in early trade. Meanwhile, AI chip leaders Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) each dropped more than 3%. Trump says Fed governor Cook 'must resign' as pressure campaign on central bank continues President Trump on Wednesday called on Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to resign as the public pressure on the central bank continues to build. "Cook must resign, now!!!" Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social Wednesday morning with a link to a Bloomberg report on a letter sent by Bill Pulte. The Federal Housing Finance Agency head has reportedly urged Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate Cook over a pair of mortgages. Pulte wrote in a letter dated Aug. 15 that Cook 'falsified bank documents and property records to acquire more favorable loan terms, potentially committing mortgage fraud under the criminal statute.' The President's call for Cook to resign comes as pressure on the Fed continues amid ongoing changes on the Fed's Board of Governors. Read more here. Nasdaq leads indexes lower again at the open US stocks were mixed on Wednesday after a bruising day for tech stocks, as investors weighed the latest retail earnings and waited for Federal Reserve minutes to provide clues to interest rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was up about 0.1%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped about 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell roughly 0.4%, after weakness in the likes of Palantir (PLTR) and Nvidia (NVDA) dragged on the broader market on Tuesday. Post-earnings market movers: Target and La-Z-Boy stocks dive, Lowe's rises Here's a look at how Wall Street is reacting to a burst of earnings reports ahead of the opening bell on Wednesday: Target (TGT) stock dived more than 10%, facing its worst sell-off since early April. The retailer cleared a low bar of earnings expectations, but comparable sales continued to fall during the quarter. Lowe's (LOW) stock rose 2.5%. The home improvement retailer reported a return to same-store sales growth, echoing positive results from Home Depot (HD) on Tuesday. Home Depot stock fell 1.3% before the bell. Estée Lauder (EL) shares fell 5%. The beauty company's annual profit forecast disappointed and executives said they expect a $100 million headwind from tariffs. Baidu (BIDU) shares edged 0.2% lower. The Chinese search engine company reported a drop in second quarter revenue as strong growth in cloud services was offset by weakness in its core advertising business. Toll Brothers (TOL) stock added 0.45%. The homebuilder reported an earnings and revenue beat on Tuesday afternoon, though new orders were less than analysts' expected. La-Z-Boy (LZB) stock tanked 20% after the company missed estimates amid soft demand. Sales for its Joybird furniture brand declined 14%. Read more live coverage of corporate earnings here Hertz to sell used cars on Amazon, stock jumps Hertz (HTZ) stock rose over 10% after the car rental company announced it is teaming up with Amazon (AMZN) to sell pre-owned vehicles. Customers will be able to browse Hertz used car sales on Amazon, purchase vehicles online, and then pick them up at select Hertz locations. It will initially be offered in Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, and Seattle, with plans to expand to 45 locations nationwide. Hertz sells pre-owned cars in addition to renting them out. The company is in the midst of a turnaround, and shares have outperformed this year with a 42% year-to-date rise. Read more here. Intel's advantages from a Trump deal could be worth as much as the money What would it take for Intel (INTC) to turn its business around? Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban digs into that question in today's Morning Brief. Read more here. This summer's hottest trend on Wall Street: 'Private for longer' Continuation funds have become hugely popular among America's biggest private fund managers this year. Yahoo Finance's David Hollerith breaks down why, and exactly how they work: Read more here. Palantir stock on track to extend losing streak Palantir stock (PLTR) looks like it may extend its losing streak to six trading days after reaching an all-time high. Shares fell 3% in premarket trading on Wednesday after a 9% decline on Tuesday. Since hitting $186.97 per share on Aug. 12, the stock is now trading around $153, putting it 18% off its record closing high. Investors rotating out of large-cap tech names and a bearish report from short seller Citron Research have weighed on the stock. Read more here. Target stock sinks after earnings eke out a beat, but sales keep falling Target's (TGT) results on Wednesday morning weren't as shockingly bad as for the first quarter, but the retailer is still struggling to find its place in the new economic norm of more discerning shoppers. Shares in the US retail giant sank 10% in premarket trading as the announcement of a new CEO still left investors wanting more. Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi reports: Read more here. Good morning. Here's what's happening today. Economic data: FOMC Minutes (July 30-31 meeting); MBA weekly mortgage applications Earnings: Target (TGT), Baidu (BIDU), Lowe's (LOW), TJX Companies (TJX), Estée Lauder (EL) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Target earnings miss the mark as sales keep falling Target will have a new CEO for the first time since 2014 Intel's Trump deal perks may rival the money Buffett effect still holds as UnitedHealth soars through August This summer's hottest trend on Wall Street: 'Private for longer' US housing warning sparks worst James Hardie selloff since 1973 US treasury chief says status quo with China 'working pretty well' Sales of foreign-branded phones in China down 31.3% in June: Data China exports of key rare-earth EV magnets hit 6-month high Target will have a new CEO... and he will not have it easy Target (TGT) is tapping a homegrown talent as its next CEO at one of the most pivotal moments in its 63-year history. The discounter announced that longtime CEO Brian Cornell's heavily groomed No. 2, Michael Fiddelke, will take over as CEO on Feb. 1, 2026. Cornell, who has been CEO of Target since August 2014, will slide into the executive chair position for an undetermined period of time. Fiddelke joined Target in 2003 as an intern and rose through the ranks to CFO and then COO. "I've had this conversation with the board for a number of years, and I've been in the role for 11 years. I'm going into my 12th now. I will actually turn 67 early next year, and I think it's time for me to step back, recharge, spend a lot more time with my family, a lot fewer nights in hotels, and be a great supporter of Michael and the team for the rest of my life," Cornell told me by video call while sitting next to Fiddelke at the company's Minneapolis headquarters. Fiddelke added, "I bleed Target red after 20 years here, and there's nothing more important to me than working with the incredible team that we have to chart the next chapter for Target. I mean, I've seen us in that 20 years at our best. I've seen us not at our best. When we're at our best, we are pretty darn tough to beat." To students of Target history such as myself, this decision isn't a surprise. For one, Fiddelke has been Cornell's right-hand man for several years now. It has become quite apparent over the past year that he was grooming Fiddelke to take over while also working behind the scenes to get board buy-in. I have gotten to know Fiddelke in recent years. He is a nice fella and has indeed earned the opportunity to sit in the CEO seat. If this was any other time for Target, the decision would probably be celebrated. It's not often an intern at a company becomes its CEO. The only comparable story I can think of is Walmart (WMT) CEO Doug McMillon going from truck loader at the retailer to CEO. But Fiddelke will unlikely have a honeymoon period, seeing as he has been there at Target during its past 24 months of struggles (which includes a weak second quarter). People I have talked to wanted an outsider as Target's next CEO, fresh eyes to come in and fix what is wrong (not unlike when Cornell was brought in back in 2014 — his career was mostly spent at Walmart and PepsiCo (PEP)). Fiddelke will be seen as a continuation of a strategy that hasn't been working. I asked him on the call how candid he plans to be in the early going on the strategy review, which is what all new leaders do. He sounded like he was ready to divert from Cornell's playbook and shake things up. He will have to do just that, and quickly, to win over a likely skeptical Wall Street. US tech stocks hit by concerns over future of AI boom Wall Street is digging into the factors behind this week's selloff in tech stocks, with many seeing it as a timely rotation out of riskier names. There are a few potential triggers, the Financial Times reports: Read more here (premium) Tech, chip stock sell-off continues as AI bubble fears mount Yahoo Finance's Laura Bratton reports: Tech stocks fell for a second day on Wednesday as investors sold off a slew of tech names amid concerns over the sustainability of the AI boom and a recent market rotation away from some of this year's biggest winners. Among the Magnificent Seven Big Tech stocks, Nvidia (NVDA) was down about 0.3%, and Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) stock fell more than 1%. Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL), shares fell over 1%. Chip stocks Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) both fell less than 1%; Micron (MU) shares plummeted nearly 4%. Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Laura Bratton reports: Tech stocks fell for a second day on Wednesday as investors sold off a slew of tech names amid concerns over the sustainability of the AI boom and a recent market rotation away from some of this year's biggest winners. Among the Magnificent Seven Big Tech stocks, Nvidia (NVDA) was down about 0.3%, and Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) stock fell more than 1%. Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL), shares fell over 1%. Chip stocks Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) both fell less than 1%; Micron (MU) shares plummeted nearly 4%. Read more here. Retail traders double down on Palantir despite recent stock slide Palantir (PLTR) shares dropped another 1% on Wednesday following a sharp 9% slide on Tuesday. But retail investors saw the drop as a buying opportunity. According to data provided to Yahoo Finance from Vanda Research, small investors poured over $59 million into Palantir during Tuesday's sell-off, marking the biggest single-day retail inflow in a week. That came on top of another $40 million in inflows the day before. The surge in retail demand highlights a classic 'buy the dip' mentality that has dominated markets since the April bottom. In the days leading up to the sell-off, retail flows had been steady but more modest, averaging in the $20 to $30 million range, according to Vanda. The jump in activity suggests everyday traders were not scared off by the stock's sudden slide. Instead, they leaned in. But even with retail piling in, the stock still fell hard. That divergence underscores a familiar market reality: while retail can be a powerful force, institutional selling pressure often sets the tone. "Retail has gotten to be such a huge percentage of the market in terms of day-to-day trading," Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday. "But if a series of institutions decide to reallocate their portfolio holdings, you're standing in the way of a much larger piece of momentum." "Collectively, a whole lot of small traders can push back, but if [institutions] are relentless about the selling, that's going to move the market lower.' Sosnick called Palantir's 9% plunge a 'shocking move down,' but also pointed out that the stock's meteoric rise has left it trading at "about as expensive of a stock as we've seen." Palantir (PLTR) shares dropped another 1% on Wednesday following a sharp 9% slide on Tuesday. But retail investors saw the drop as a buying opportunity. According to data provided to Yahoo Finance from Vanda Research, small investors poured over $59 million into Palantir during Tuesday's sell-off, marking the biggest single-day retail inflow in a week. That came on top of another $40 million in inflows the day before. The surge in retail demand highlights a classic 'buy the dip' mentality that has dominated markets since the April bottom. In the days leading up to the sell-off, retail flows had been steady but more modest, averaging in the $20 to $30 million range, according to Vanda. The jump in activity suggests everyday traders were not scared off by the stock's sudden slide. Instead, they leaned in. But even with retail piling in, the stock still fell hard. That divergence underscores a familiar market reality: while retail can be a powerful force, institutional selling pressure often sets the tone. "Retail has gotten to be such a huge percentage of the market in terms of day-to-day trading," Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday. "But if a series of institutions decide to reallocate their portfolio holdings, you're standing in the way of a much larger piece of momentum." "Collectively, a whole lot of small traders can push back, but if [institutions] are relentless about the selling, that's going to move the market lower.' Sosnick called Palantir's 9% plunge a 'shocking move down,' but also pointed out that the stock's meteoric rise has left it trading at "about as expensive of a stock as we've seen." James Hardie stock collapses 35% as US housing slump hits building materials Yahoo Finance's Ines Ferre reports: James Hardie (JHX) stock tumbled 35% on Wednesday as the maker of high-end home siding pointed to a weak US housing market and homeowners reluctant to spend on big projects. The stock, listed in the US and Australia, saw its biggest one-day drop since 1973, according to Bloomberg data. The company's profit declined 28% year over year during its fiscal first quarter. Net sales tumbled 9% over the same period. "Uncertainty is a common thread throughout conversations with customer and contractor partners," CEO Aaron Erter said during the company's earnings call. James Hardie pointed to "softer demand," citing a slowdown in single-family construction activity, especially in the southern part of the US. Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Ines Ferre reports: James Hardie (JHX) stock tumbled 35% on Wednesday as the maker of high-end home siding pointed to a weak US housing market and homeowners reluctant to spend on big projects. The stock, listed in the US and Australia, saw its biggest one-day drop since 1973, according to Bloomberg data. The company's profit declined 28% year over year during its fiscal first quarter. Net sales tumbled 9% over the same period. "Uncertainty is a common thread throughout conversations with customer and contractor partners," CEO Aaron Erter said during the company's earnings call. James Hardie pointed to "softer demand," citing a slowdown in single-family construction activity, especially in the southern part of the US. Read more here. Fed minutes show majority of officials more concerned about inflation than employment Minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting showed the "majority" of officials were more concerned about the upside risk to inflation than downside risks to the Fed's mandate for maximum employment. "Regarding upside risks to inflation, participants pointed to the uncertain effects of tariffs and the possibility of inflation expectations becoming unanchored," the minutes read. "In addition to tariff-induced risks, potential downside risks to employment mentioned by participants included a possible tightening of financial conditions due to a rise in risk premiums, a more substantial deterioration in the housing market, and the risk that the increased use of AI in the workplace may lower employment." Read more about the Fed minutes here. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting showed the "majority" of officials were more concerned about the upside risk to inflation than downside risks to the Fed's mandate for maximum employment. "Regarding upside risks to inflation, participants pointed to the uncertain effects of tariffs and the possibility of inflation expectations becoming unanchored," the minutes read. "In addition to tariff-induced risks, potential downside risks to employment mentioned by participants included a possible tightening of financial conditions due to a rise in risk premiums, a more substantial deterioration in the housing market, and the risk that the increased use of AI in the workplace may lower employment." Read more about the Fed minutes here. Eight sectors are outperforming the S&P 500 on Wednesday Citi head of US equity trading strategy Stuart Kaiser noted on Tuesday that the recent pain the stock market has "remained localized." And that's holding true on Wednesday too despite a roughly 1% decline in the Nasdaq Composite. The pain is mostly in technology and other related areas of the market with eight of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 (^GSPC)outperforming the benchmark index. While the size of tech in the index is pulling down the overall S&P 500 there are actually still 265 stocks in positive territory with a little over two hours left in the trading session. For now the rotation in the market isn't shaking a bullish stance from Kaiser who remains positive on US equities with a "quality preference." Below is a look at the sector action thus far in Wednesday's trade. Citi head of US equity trading strategy Stuart Kaiser noted on Tuesday that the recent pain the stock market has "remained localized." And that's holding true on Wednesday too despite a roughly 1% decline in the Nasdaq Composite. The pain is mostly in technology and other related areas of the market with eight of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 (^GSPC)outperforming the benchmark index. While the size of tech in the index is pulling down the overall S&P 500 there are actually still 265 stocks in positive territory with a little over two hours left in the trading session. For now the rotation in the market isn't shaking a bullish stance from Kaiser who remains positive on US equities with a "quality preference." Below is a look at the sector action thus far in Wednesday's trade. Google unveils latest Pixel phones, including foldable Pixel 10 Pro Fold Yahoo Finance's Dan Howley reports: Google (GOOG, GOOGL) announced its latest line of Pixel smartphones on Wednesday as part of its Made By Google event in New York City on Wednesday. The Pixel 10 lineup includes four phones: the Pixel 10, Pixel 10 Pro, Pixel 10 Pro XL, and Pixel 10 Pro Fold. The company also showed off its newest smartwatch, the Pixel Watch 4. The devices get Google's latest Gemini AI capabilities, including the company's new Magic Cue for its smartphones and enhanced smart replies for the watch. Starting at $799, the entry-level Pixel 10 now comes with three rear cameras, up from two. That includes a 5x telephoto camera. Inside, the 6.3-inch phone gets Google's latest Tensor G5 processor, 12GB of RAM, and upwards of 256GB of storage. The Pixel 10 Pro starts at $999 and gets a sharper 6.3-inch display and more-advanced triple-camera setup. And while the phone packs the same Tensor G5 processor as the standard Pixel 10, the Pro sports 16GB of RAM rather than 12GB and offers up to 512GB of storage. Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Dan Howley reports: Google (GOOG, GOOGL) announced its latest line of Pixel smartphones on Wednesday as part of its Made By Google event in New York City on Wednesday. The Pixel 10 lineup includes four phones: the Pixel 10, Pixel 10 Pro, Pixel 10 Pro XL, and Pixel 10 Pro Fold. The company also showed off its newest smartwatch, the Pixel Watch 4. The devices get Google's latest Gemini AI capabilities, including the company's new Magic Cue for its smartphones and enhanced smart replies for the watch. Starting at $799, the entry-level Pixel 10 now comes with three rear cameras, up from two. That includes a 5x telephoto camera. Inside, the 6.3-inch phone gets Google's latest Tensor G5 processor, 12GB of RAM, and upwards of 256GB of storage. The Pixel 10 Pro starts at $999 and gets a sharper 6.3-inch display and more-advanced triple-camera setup. And while the phone packs the same Tensor G5 processor as the standard Pixel 10, the Pro sports 16GB of RAM rather than 12GB and offers up to 512GB of storage. Read more here. Hertz stock jumps on deal to sell its used cars on Amazon Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports: Rental car firm Hertz (HTZ) struck a deal with Amazon Autos (AMZN) on Wednesday to sell some of its used car inventory. The company said this will make it easier for customers to purchase cars from its fleet. Starting today, customers can search Amazon Autos to browse, finance, and purchase from thousands of used Hertz fleet vehicles from brands like Ford, Toyota, Chevrolet, Nissan, and others. Hertz Car Sales, the rental car firm's used car sales arm, will be the first fleet dealer on Amazon Autos. Hertz said sales will begin in the Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, and Seattle metro areas, with plans to expand to Hertz Car Sales' 45 locations nationwide. After customers complete their purchase online, they can pick up the vehicles at Hertz locations in those cities. Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports: Rental car firm Hertz (HTZ) struck a deal with Amazon Autos (AMZN) on Wednesday to sell some of its used car inventory. The company said this will make it easier for customers to purchase cars from its fleet. Starting today, customers can search Amazon Autos to browse, finance, and purchase from thousands of used Hertz fleet vehicles from brands like Ford, Toyota, Chevrolet, Nissan, and others. Hertz Car Sales, the rental car firm's used car sales arm, will be the first fleet dealer on Amazon Autos. Hertz said sales will begin in the Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, and Seattle metro areas, with plans to expand to Hertz Car Sales' 45 locations nationwide. After customers complete their purchase online, they can pick up the vehicles at Hertz locations in those cities. Read more here. KeyBanc warns China headwinds could prompt an Nvidia earnings miss Yahoo Finance's Francisco Velasquez reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Francisco Velasquez reports: Read more here. Big Tech is getting hammered again Tuesday's market action was all about isolated selling in some of the market's biggest winners. Wednesday's early session has brought more of the same, as Big Tech is clearly leading the selling action once more. After a nearly 10% drop on Tuesday, Palantir (PLTR) fell another 7% in early trade. Meanwhile, AI chip leaders Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) each dropped more than 3%. Tuesday's market action was all about isolated selling in some of the market's biggest winners. Wednesday's early session has brought more of the same, as Big Tech is clearly leading the selling action once more. After a nearly 10% drop on Tuesday, Palantir (PLTR) fell another 7% in early trade. Meanwhile, AI chip leaders Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) each dropped more than 3%. Trump says Fed governor Cook 'must resign' as pressure campaign on central bank continues President Trump on Wednesday called on Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to resign as the public pressure on the central bank continues to build. "Cook must resign, now!!!" Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social Wednesday morning with a link to a Bloomberg report on a letter sent by Bill Pulte. The Federal Housing Finance Agency head has reportedly urged Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate Cook over a pair of mortgages. Pulte wrote in a letter dated Aug. 15 that Cook 'falsified bank documents and property records to acquire more favorable loan terms, potentially committing mortgage fraud under the criminal statute.' The President's call for Cook to resign comes as pressure on the Fed continues amid ongoing changes on the Fed's Board of Governors. Read more here. President Trump on Wednesday called on Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to resign as the public pressure on the central bank continues to build. "Cook must resign, now!!!" Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social Wednesday morning with a link to a Bloomberg report on a letter sent by Bill Pulte. The Federal Housing Finance Agency head has reportedly urged Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate Cook over a pair of mortgages. Pulte wrote in a letter dated Aug. 15 that Cook 'falsified bank documents and property records to acquire more favorable loan terms, potentially committing mortgage fraud under the criminal statute.' The President's call for Cook to resign comes as pressure on the Fed continues amid ongoing changes on the Fed's Board of Governors. Read more here. Nasdaq leads indexes lower again at the open US stocks were mixed on Wednesday after a bruising day for tech stocks, as investors weighed the latest retail earnings and waited for Federal Reserve minutes to provide clues to interest rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was up about 0.1%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped about 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell roughly 0.4%, after weakness in the likes of Palantir (PLTR) and Nvidia (NVDA) dragged on the broader market on Tuesday. US stocks were mixed on Wednesday after a bruising day for tech stocks, as investors weighed the latest retail earnings and waited for Federal Reserve minutes to provide clues to interest rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was up about 0.1%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped about 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell roughly 0.4%, after weakness in the likes of Palantir (PLTR) and Nvidia (NVDA) dragged on the broader market on Tuesday. Post-earnings market movers: Target and La-Z-Boy stocks dive, Lowe's rises Here's a look at how Wall Street is reacting to a burst of earnings reports ahead of the opening bell on Wednesday: Target (TGT) stock dived more than 10%, facing its worst sell-off since early April. The retailer cleared a low bar of earnings expectations, but comparable sales continued to fall during the quarter. Lowe's (LOW) stock rose 2.5%. The home improvement retailer reported a return to same-store sales growth, echoing positive results from Home Depot (HD) on Tuesday. Home Depot stock fell 1.3% before the bell. Estée Lauder (EL) shares fell 5%. The beauty company's annual profit forecast disappointed and executives said they expect a $100 million headwind from tariffs. Baidu (BIDU) shares edged 0.2% lower. The Chinese search engine company reported a drop in second quarter revenue as strong growth in cloud services was offset by weakness in its core advertising business. Toll Brothers (TOL) stock added 0.45%. The homebuilder reported an earnings and revenue beat on Tuesday afternoon, though new orders were less than analysts' expected. La-Z-Boy (LZB) stock tanked 20% after the company missed estimates amid soft demand. Sales for its Joybird furniture brand declined 14%. Read more live coverage of corporate earnings here Here's a look at how Wall Street is reacting to a burst of earnings reports ahead of the opening bell on Wednesday: Target (TGT) stock dived more than 10%, facing its worst sell-off since early April. The retailer cleared a low bar of earnings expectations, but comparable sales continued to fall during the quarter. Lowe's (LOW) stock rose 2.5%. The home improvement retailer reported a return to same-store sales growth, echoing positive results from Home Depot (HD) on Tuesday. Home Depot stock fell 1.3% before the bell. Estée Lauder (EL) shares fell 5%. The beauty company's annual profit forecast disappointed and executives said they expect a $100 million headwind from tariffs. Baidu (BIDU) shares edged 0.2% lower. The Chinese search engine company reported a drop in second quarter revenue as strong growth in cloud services was offset by weakness in its core advertising business. Toll Brothers (TOL) stock added 0.45%. The homebuilder reported an earnings and revenue beat on Tuesday afternoon, though new orders were less than analysts' expected. La-Z-Boy (LZB) stock tanked 20% after the company missed estimates amid soft demand. Sales for its Joybird furniture brand declined 14%. Read more live coverage of corporate earnings here Hertz to sell used cars on Amazon, stock jumps Hertz (HTZ) stock rose over 10% after the car rental company announced it is teaming up with Amazon (AMZN) to sell pre-owned vehicles. Customers will be able to browse Hertz used car sales on Amazon, purchase vehicles online, and then pick them up at select Hertz locations. It will initially be offered in Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, and Seattle, with plans to expand to 45 locations nationwide. Hertz sells pre-owned cars in addition to renting them out. The company is in the midst of a turnaround, and shares have outperformed this year with a 42% year-to-date rise. Read more here. Hertz (HTZ) stock rose over 10% after the car rental company announced it is teaming up with Amazon (AMZN) to sell pre-owned vehicles. Customers will be able to browse Hertz used car sales on Amazon, purchase vehicles online, and then pick them up at select Hertz locations. It will initially be offered in Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, and Seattle, with plans to expand to 45 locations nationwide. Hertz sells pre-owned cars in addition to renting them out. The company is in the midst of a turnaround, and shares have outperformed this year with a 42% year-to-date rise. Read more here. Intel's advantages from a Trump deal could be worth as much as the money What would it take for Intel (INTC) to turn its business around? Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban digs into that question in today's Morning Brief. Read more here. What would it take for Intel (INTC) to turn its business around? Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban digs into that question in today's Morning Brief. Read more here. This summer's hottest trend on Wall Street: 'Private for longer' Continuation funds have become hugely popular among America's biggest private fund managers this year. Yahoo Finance's David Hollerith breaks down why, and exactly how they work: Read more here. Continuation funds have become hugely popular among America's biggest private fund managers this year. Yahoo Finance's David Hollerith breaks down why, and exactly how they work: Read more here. Palantir stock on track to extend losing streak Palantir stock (PLTR) looks like it may extend its losing streak to six trading days after reaching an all-time high. Shares fell 3% in premarket trading on Wednesday after a 9% decline on Tuesday. Since hitting $186.97 per share on Aug. 12, the stock is now trading around $153, putting it 18% off its record closing high. Investors rotating out of large-cap tech names and a bearish report from short seller Citron Research have weighed on the stock. Read more here. Palantir stock (PLTR) looks like it may extend its losing streak to six trading days after reaching an all-time high. Shares fell 3% in premarket trading on Wednesday after a 9% decline on Tuesday. Since hitting $186.97 per share on Aug. 12, the stock is now trading around $153, putting it 18% off its record closing high. Investors rotating out of large-cap tech names and a bearish report from short seller Citron Research have weighed on the stock. Read more here. Target stock sinks after earnings eke out a beat, but sales keep falling Target's (TGT) results on Wednesday morning weren't as shockingly bad as for the first quarter, but the retailer is still struggling to find its place in the new economic norm of more discerning shoppers. Shares in the US retail giant sank 10% in premarket trading as the announcement of a new CEO still left investors wanting more. Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi reports: Read more here. Target's (TGT) results on Wednesday morning weren't as shockingly bad as for the first quarter, but the retailer is still struggling to find its place in the new economic norm of more discerning shoppers. Shares in the US retail giant sank 10% in premarket trading as the announcement of a new CEO still left investors wanting more. Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi reports: Read more here. Good morning. Here's what's happening today. Economic data: FOMC Minutes (July 30-31 meeting); MBA weekly mortgage applications Earnings: Target (TGT), Baidu (BIDU), Lowe's (LOW), TJX Companies (TJX), Estée Lauder (EL) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Target earnings miss the mark as sales keep falling Target will have a new CEO for the first time since 2014 Intel's Trump deal perks may rival the money Buffett effect still holds as UnitedHealth soars through August This summer's hottest trend on Wall Street: 'Private for longer' US housing warning sparks worst James Hardie selloff since 1973 US treasury chief says status quo with China 'working pretty well' Sales of foreign-branded phones in China down 31.3% in June: Data China exports of key rare-earth EV magnets hit 6-month high Economic data: FOMC Minutes (July 30-31 meeting); MBA weekly mortgage applications Earnings: Target (TGT), Baidu (BIDU), Lowe's (LOW), TJX Companies (TJX), Estée Lauder (EL) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Target earnings miss the mark as sales keep falling Target will have a new CEO for the first time since 2014 Intel's Trump deal perks may rival the money Buffett effect still holds as UnitedHealth soars through August This summer's hottest trend on Wall Street: 'Private for longer' US housing warning sparks worst James Hardie selloff since 1973 US treasury chief says status quo with China 'working pretty well' Sales of foreign-branded phones in China down 31.3% in June: Data China exports of key rare-earth EV magnets hit 6-month high Target will have a new CEO... and he will not have it easy Target (TGT) is tapping a homegrown talent as its next CEO at one of the most pivotal moments in its 63-year history. The discounter announced that longtime CEO Brian Cornell's heavily groomed No. 2, Michael Fiddelke, will take over as CEO on Feb. 1, 2026. Cornell, who has been CEO of Target since August 2014, will slide into the executive chair position for an undetermined period of time. Fiddelke joined Target in 2003 as an intern and rose through the ranks to CFO and then COO. "I've had this conversation with the board for a number of years, and I've been in the role for 11 years. I'm going into my 12th now. I will actually turn 67 early next year, and I think it's time for me to step back, recharge, spend a lot more time with my family, a lot fewer nights in hotels, and be a great supporter of Michael and the team for the rest of my life," Cornell told me by video call while sitting next to Fiddelke at the company's Minneapolis headquarters. Fiddelke added, "I bleed Target red after 20 years here, and there's nothing more important to me than working with the incredible team that we have to chart the next chapter for Target. I mean, I've seen us in that 20 years at our best. I've seen us not at our best. When we're at our best, we are pretty darn tough to beat." To students of Target history such as myself, this decision isn't a surprise. For one, Fiddelke has been Cornell's right-hand man for several years now. It has become quite apparent over the past year that he was grooming Fiddelke to take over while also working behind the scenes to get board buy-in. I have gotten to know Fiddelke in recent years. He is a nice fella and has indeed earned the opportunity to sit in the CEO seat. If this was any other time for Target, the decision would probably be celebrated. It's not often an intern at a company becomes its CEO. The only comparable story I can think of is Walmart (WMT) CEO Doug McMillon going from truck loader at the retailer to CEO. But Fiddelke will unlikely have a honeymoon period, seeing as he has been there at Target during its past 24 months of struggles (which includes a weak second quarter). People I have talked to wanted an outsider as Target's next CEO, fresh eyes to come in and fix what is wrong (not unlike when Cornell was brought in back in 2014 — his career was mostly spent at Walmart and PepsiCo (PEP)). Fiddelke will be seen as a continuation of a strategy that hasn't been working. I asked him on the call how candid he plans to be in the early going on the strategy review, which is what all new leaders do. He sounded like he was ready to divert from Cornell's playbook and shake things up. He will have to do just that, and quickly, to win over a likely skeptical Wall Street. Target (TGT) is tapping a homegrown talent as its next CEO at one of the most pivotal moments in its 63-year history. The discounter announced that longtime CEO Brian Cornell's heavily groomed No. 2, Michael Fiddelke, will take over as CEO on Feb. 1, 2026. Cornell, who has been CEO of Target since August 2014, will slide into the executive chair position for an undetermined period of time. Fiddelke joined Target in 2003 as an intern and rose through the ranks to CFO and then COO. "I've had this conversation with the board for a number of years, and I've been in the role for 11 years. I'm going into my 12th now. I will actually turn 67 early next year, and I think it's time for me to step back, recharge, spend a lot more time with my family, a lot fewer nights in hotels, and be a great supporter of Michael and the team for the rest of my life," Cornell told me by video call while sitting next to Fiddelke at the company's Minneapolis headquarters. Fiddelke added, "I bleed Target red after 20 years here, and there's nothing more important to me than working with the incredible team that we have to chart the next chapter for Target. I mean, I've seen us in that 20 years at our best. I've seen us not at our best. When we're at our best, we are pretty darn tough to beat." To students of Target history such as myself, this decision isn't a surprise. For one, Fiddelke has been Cornell's right-hand man for several years now. It has become quite apparent over the past year that he was grooming Fiddelke to take over while also working behind the scenes to get board buy-in. I have gotten to know Fiddelke in recent years. He is a nice fella and has indeed earned the opportunity to sit in the CEO seat. If this was any other time for Target, the decision would probably be celebrated. It's not often an intern at a company becomes its CEO. The only comparable story I can think of is Walmart (WMT) CEO Doug McMillon going from truck loader at the retailer to CEO. But Fiddelke will unlikely have a honeymoon period, seeing as he has been there at Target during its past 24 months of struggles (which includes a weak second quarter). People I have talked to wanted an outsider as Target's next CEO, fresh eyes to come in and fix what is wrong (not unlike when Cornell was brought in back in 2014 — his career was mostly spent at Walmart and PepsiCo (PEP)). Fiddelke will be seen as a continuation of a strategy that hasn't been working. I asked him on the call how candid he plans to be in the early going on the strategy review, which is what all new leaders do. He sounded like he was ready to divert from Cornell's playbook and shake things up. He will have to do just that, and quickly, to win over a likely skeptical Wall Street. US tech stocks hit by concerns over future of AI boom Wall Street is digging into the factors behind this week's selloff in tech stocks, with many seeing it as a timely rotation out of riskier names. There are a few potential triggers, the Financial Times reports: Read more here (premium) Wall Street is digging into the factors behind this week's selloff in tech stocks, with many seeing it as a timely rotation out of riskier names. There are a few potential triggers, the Financial Times reports: Read more here (premium)
Yahoo
42 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Why Oneok's (OKE) Post-Earnings Meltdown May Spell Opportunity for Contrarian Options Traders
It's not easy plying one's trade in the broader hydrocarbon energy industry — even with the Trump administration's tacit support for the sector. Just look at natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) specialist Oneok (OKE). Despite delivering solid financial results and enjoying political relevance, Oneok can't quite get it together in the equities arena. Still, the ugliness in the charts for OKE stock could spell opportunity for intrepid speculators. Earlier this month, the Tulsa, Oklahoma-based energy company posted second-quarter net income of $841 million, per Barchart content partner AP. On a per-share basis, Oneok delivered earnings of $1.34, matching the consensus estimate by Wall Street analysts. Further, the natural gas specialist generated revenue of $7.89 billion in the period. More News from Barchart Trade the Warren Buffett Rally in UnitedHealth Stock With This High-Reward, Low-Risk Options Strategy Cisco's Strong Free Cash Flow Could Make CSCO Stock Worth 14% More Hedge Your Bets With This SPY Options Strategy While the VIX is Still Low Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! Despite the solid results, OKE stock has struggled. Since the disclosure, shares are down 8.5%. Plus, it's difficult to ignore that visually, the fallout is unsightly. Since the beginning of the year, OKE has declined by more than 27%. Not surprisingly, OKE stock represented one of the highlights in Barchart's Unusual Stock Options Volume screener. This data interface showcases the top 500 securities that have generated aberrant transactions relative to prior norms in the derivatives market. Theoretically, the screener can tip off retail investors as to where the smart money may be positioning its funds. On Monday, total options volume for OKE stock reached 4,924 contracts, representing a 54.89% lift over the trailing one-month average. Interestingly, call volume stood at 4,197 contracts, leaving the put side at only 727 contracts. On paper, this would seem bullish as it implies more traders buying calls than puts. However, options can be debit or credit based, imposing complexities. A closer look at options flow — which focuses exclusively on big block transactions — showed net trade sentiment slightly favoring the bears. However, last Friday, this metric stood at $136,700 above parity, overwhelmingly favoring the bullish side. While it's difficult to make wholesale assumptions, it appears that professional investors don't anticipate OKE stock falling below the $75 strike price by the Sep. 19 expiration date. Using Path Dependency to Estimate Where OKE Stock May End Up While analyzing unusual options activity can be helpful, it's not the full story. To be quite honest, I'm not sure if there are empirical studies linking the insights of unusual options with predictive power — and that's probably because such studies are inherently multidimensional. To get a clearer picture of the unknown future, traders may rely on one of two frameworks. Primarily, the most common approach is known as volatility dependency. By using derivations of the Black-Scholes formula, retail traders rely on implied volatility (IV) to narrow down their range of possibilities for their target security. Essentially, a higher IV ratings lead to wider bands in projections such as the Expected Move calculator, while lower IV ratings lead to narrower bands. However, one of the biggest concerns that I have about Black-Scholes-derived or influenced metrics is that the formula doesn't account for how markets actually behave. For example, returns are assumed to be log-normal distributions rather than fat-tailed, skewed and clustered around pockets of volatility. There's also the obvious vulnerability that it doesn't account for American-style options, which allow for position exiting prior to expiration. While I might get skewered for saying this, I believe a better approach is path dependency. Much more common in Slavic countries, path dependency builds forecasts off actual pricing dynamics against like-like conditions. In other words, the math involved in this approach is descriptive rather than prescriptive. However, the tricky part of path-dependent models is that the input and output variables require epistemological continuity. As such, I convert price action into a binary code of accumulative and distributive sessions. With this approach, all stocks now speak the same language — facilitating cross-sector analysis. For OKE stock, the takeaway is that in the past 10 weeks, the market voted to buy the security four times and sell six times. During this period, OKE incurred a downward trajectory. For brevity, we can label this sequence as 4-6-D. Notably, in 68% of cases (going back to January 2019), the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 2.32%. That's above the baseline probability of 57.23% or the chance that a long position will be profitable on any given week. Adding to the intrigue, if we were to include the current week's session into the equation, OKE stock would be charting a 3-7-D sequence. This rare signal has an even greater next-week upside probability of 77.8%. Intriguing Strategies to Consider Based on how the next 10 weeks could play out as implied by the flashing of the 3-7-D sequence (which is very similar to the scenario forecasted by the 4-6-D sequence), the most conservative debit-based multi-leg options strategy may be the 70/75 bull call spread expiring Sep. 19. This trade requires OKE stock to hit the $75 short strike price at expiration, which appears to be more than doable (assuming that you believe my forecast). However, the payout — for a net debit of $325 — is just under 54%. That's not particularly enticing. A much more tempting trade is the 75/80 bull call spread expiring Oct. 17. The $80 short strike price is projected in my model to be lower than either the positive or negative pathways. Of course, you would have to assume that my projections are more accurate than volatility-dependent calculations. With a payout of over 170%, it's going to tempt some folks. Now, the real [insert Samuel L. Jackson's favorite word here] is the 75/80 bull spread expiring Sep. 19. My model shows that it's on the edge of possibility. If you're a believer, you need to put down $130 for the chance to gain a profit of $370. That's a payout of almost 285%. Yeah, there's a lot to think about when you shift paradigms to path dependency. On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
CNBC
43 minutes ago
- CNBC
CNBC Daily Open: The U.S. tech-sell off extends to its second day — but don't let it ruin your summer
If you have any U.S. technology stocks in your portfolio (and let's face it, who doesn't?), you might want to look away. For the second day in a row, tech stocks dragged markets lower, with the Nasdaq Composite slipping 0.67%. Juggernauts such as Apple, Amazon and Alphabet were more meh-nificent than magnificent, falling more than 1%. Palantir — the standout S&P 500 stock, having more than doubled so far this year — spent its sixth consecutive day in the red and lost its place among a ranking of the 20 most valuable U.S. companies. While Palantir's slide was partly triggered by a report from short seller Andrew Left's Citron Research, which called the company "detached from fundamentals and analysis," there was no single trigger for the broader pullback. Investors could have been spooked by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's caution about an AI bubble forming, although some analysts dispute that assertion. "In our view the tech bull cycle will be well intact at least for another 2-3 years," said Wall Street tech bull Dan Ives. Or it could be something benign, like traders locking in profits. "Tech stocks," said Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth, "have had an incredibly strong run – with some up over 80% since the early April lows." Summer, after all, is far from over. Some investors might have just wanted to cash out for another round of margaritas. Fed officials divided over inflation and employment worries. Central bank governors generally agreed there were risks on both sides. But a couple — breaking from the majority — saw the labor market woes as more pressing, according to minutes of the Fed's July meeting. Trump likely to pick Kevin Hasset as next Fed Chair. The director of the National Economic Council firmly led the pack, according to a CNBC Fed Survey. However, respondents think the president "should" pick former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. No new solar or wind power projects, Trump says. Renewable energy projects will no longer receive approval, Trump posted Wednesday on Truth Social. His comment comes after the administration already tightened federal permitting last month. Fourth day of losses for the S&P 500. Investors continued selling off technology stocks on Wednesday, with Palantir having its sixth straight losing day. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 closed at another high despite inflation in July coming in hotter than expected. [PRO] The Fed is expected to cut just as markets trade at highs. This is what tends to happen when both factors coincide, according to Goldman Sachs research. Trump has snapped up more than $100 million in bonds since taking office U.S. President Donald Trump has been on a multimillion-dollar bond-buying spree since taking office in January, investing in debt issued by local authorities, gas districts and major American corporations. Across 33 pages of filings with the U.S. Office of Government Ethics, or OGE, dated Aug. 12, the president outlined 690 transactions that have taken place since he took office. The documents were made public on Tuesday.
