Expert in civil engineering's solution to M4 relief road
The warning came from Keith Jones, an employee and Fellow of the Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE), who has an impressive CV and has advised on infrastructure policy and guided projects for decades.
Talking to the Argus, Keith explained people need to understand what civil engineering is: 'People think of medicine and hospitals as the most important aspect of health. That's completely wrong! Infrastructure and delivering basic services come before medicine.
'Medicine doesn't work without access to clean running water and other basics. The same goes for other things we take for granted. You can't have anything delivered without civil engineering laying foundations. Clean water is more important than medicine – or anything else,' he explained.
Keith, ICE Regional Director for Wales, laid out dilemmas facing Wales: 'The M4 is an old road and cannot now cope. We have outdated infrastructure, people wanting to drive cars because cars get you from where you are to where you want to go. Public transport can't do that and we all know it.
'We also have demands on reducing carbon and we need to balance growth, environmental concern and mobility without any silver bullet solution.'
Keith stated ICE fully supports Welsh Government policy on carbon reduction and environmental management.
He points out that by about 2030, Wales would have spent about £3bn on alternatives to the M4 and all that investment may be ineffective. Furthermore, the investment is aimed at alleviating problems in an era which has seen sluggish economic growth over nearly 20 years. How would we cope with normal growth?
Recently, Welsh and UK governments combined to produce a near £1bn infrastructure boost. This will be spent on expanding rail services, bus lanes, cycling and walking routes.
Keith responds: 'Five new stations? I haven't seen the detailed programme, but such things are notoriously hard to deliver on budget and on time. ICE is in full support of new stations and environmental concerns and will be calling for further measures in future.'
He added a note of caution: 'The new train infrastructure could lead to delays elsewhere in the network. Don't be surprised if new rail services cause delays on mainlines.'
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Keith explained we are used to politicians asking for things and engineers building those things. Today, carbon reduction will measure the immense carbon footprint of large projects, with things like carbon hungry products, like concrete, being rationed. For Keith, delivering squared circles will be exciting for the future of civil engineering and its engagement with public policy.
He starkly laid out problems: 'How is Wales is going to cope? If you're an investor, would you invest east or west of the Prince of Wales Bridge? I doubt big projects will come west of the bridge because there's major unresolved problems.'
Asked about alternatives to a relief road, Keith was gloomy: 'We advise ministers and ministers decide. That is the way it should be. I would not advise a new tunnel or open cutting Brynglas Hill, to drive open lanes through the site. That is not an option because of environmental, topographical and policy constraints. These are major difficulties. A new road, of some sort, is the only real option.'
Asked about sensitivity of the Gwent Levels and an alternative route, Keith said: 'That's a matter for ministers. All policies have consequences because all people have consequences on the world. Policy to manage it is down to ministers who must come up with imaginative solutions, based on technical advances and people accepting that all policies have both winners and losers and we can't have magic solutions – just trade-offs.'
Nevertheless, Keith can sound optimistic on the matter. He says the completion of the Heads of the Valleys route offers new options, as does the proposed new rail stations.
However, the challenge evolves, just as possible technical solutions evolve: 'Recent commitments are part of the solution and we welcome them, but ICE will be keeping a watching brief on the options open to ministers and also their decisions.'
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