logo
How stock markets have been affected by rising India-Pakistan tensions

How stock markets have been affected by rising India-Pakistan tensions

Independent09-05-2025

Indian stock markets fell sharply on Friday as tensions with Pakistan intensified following Operation Sindoor, shaking investor sentiment. The Sensex dropped 880 points to 79,454, while the Nifty held just above 24,000. Broader indices also declined, and volatility surged amid escalating geopolitical uncertainty.
Indian stocks opened lower on Friday morning following reports of overnight drone and munition attacks by Pakistani forces along the western border.
While headline indices on Dalal Street (where the Bombay Stock Exchange is located) logged steep losses, the broader market took a heavier hit – small- and mid-cap stocks tumbled as much as two per cent. Market volatility spiked further, with the India Volatility Index (VIX) spiking over six per cent to 22.27, signalling rising investor nervousness.
Traders said markets had not fully priced in the scale of the latest escalation. 'We're unwinding all risk positions,' one trader told Reuters, warning that any flare-up over the weekend could trigger more selling next week.
Veteran investor Ambareesh Baliga said earlier sentiment had underestimated the threat of a wider conflict, amplifying Friday's downturn, according to India Today.
Amid the broader selloff, defence stocks stood out as rare gainers. Shares of Bharat Electronics and Hindustan Aeronautics climbed between two to three per cent, as investors anticipated a boost in defence spending and policy support for domestic manufacturers.
The Nifty Defence index was the only sector to rise, while all 13 other sectors ended the day with losses.
Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said investors should not panic or sell in a hurry. He was quoted as saying by The Times of India: 'Under normal circumstances, on a day like this, the market would have suffered deep cuts. But this is unlikely due to two reasons. One, the conflict, so far, has demonstrated India's clear superiority in conventional warfare, and therefore, further escalation of the conflict will inflict huge damage to Pakistan. Two, the market is inherently resilient, supported by global and domestic macros. Weak dollar and potentially weakening US and Chinese economies are good for the Indian market.'
He added: 'The domestic macros construct is further rendered stronger by the high GDP growth expected this year and the declining interest rate environment. These are the reasons why (Foreign Institutional Investors) FIIs have been on a buying spree in the Indian market during the last sixteen trading sessions. Investors should not panic and exit from the market now. Remain invested, monitor the developments and wait for the dust to settle.'
Earlier, Prashanth Tapse, senior VP (research), Mehta Equities Ltd told The Indian Express: 'There is growing uncertainty in the markets as investors are worried that the ongoing tension resulting in a major conflict between the two nuclear-powered nations going ahead could spark a major sell-off in equities, and hence profit-taking was seen in almost all the sectors barring select IT counters.'
Meanwhile, in global markets, Japan's Nikkei and Topix rose 1.2 per cent after a US-UK trade deal lifted investor hopes for broader negotiations. Other Asian markets showed mixed results: Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.2 per cent, Taiwan's stock index rose 1 per cent, and Australia's ASX climbed 0.4 per cent.
The Indian rupee weakened by 30 paise, trading at 85.88 against the US dollar, while the dollar index dipped slightly to 100.6.

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Exclusive: Shein and Reliance aim to sell India-made clothes abroad within a year, sources say
Exclusive: Shein and Reliance aim to sell India-made clothes abroad within a year, sources say

Reuters

time23 minutes ago

  • Reuters

Exclusive: Shein and Reliance aim to sell India-made clothes abroad within a year, sources say

MUMBAI/LONDON, June 9 (Reuters) - Fashion retailer Shein and partner Reliance Retail plan to rapidly expand their Indian supplier base and start overseas sales of India-made Shein-branded clothes within six to 12 months, said two people with knowledge of the matter. The China-founded, Singapore-headquartered e-commerce firm has been discussing plans with the Indian retailer since before the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese imports that intensified the need to diversify sourcing, the people said. The aim is to raise Indian suppliers to 1,000 from 150 within a year, they said. In a statement to Reuters, Shein said it licensed its brand for use in India. Reliance did not respond to queries. Shein sells low-priced apparel such as $5 dresses and $10 jeans shipped directly from 7,000 suppliers in China to customers in around 150 countries. Its biggest market is the U.S. where it is adjusting to tariffs on low-value e-commerce packages from China which were previously imported duty free. The retailer launched in India in 2018 but its app was banned in 2020 as part of government action against China-linked firms amid border tension with its northeastern neighbour. It returned in February under a licensing deal with the Reliance Industries ( opens new tab unit which launched selling Shein-branded clothes produced in local factories. In contrast, Shein's other websites mainly list goods from China. Reliance, controlled by Asia's richest person, Mukesh Ambani, has contracted 150 garment manufacturers and is in discussion with 400 more, said the two people, declining to be identified due to confidentiality concerns. The goal is 1,000 Indian factories making Shein-branded clothes within a year for both the Indian market and to service some of Shein's global websites, the people said. Shein initially wants to list India-made clothes on its U.S. and British websites, one of the people said. Discussions have been ongoing for months and the launch time of six to 12 months could change depending on supplier numbers, the person said. The scale of supplier expansion and export time frame is reported here for the first time. Shein has licensed its brand for domestic use to Reliance which "is responsible for manufacturing, supply chain, sales and operations in the Indian market," Shein said in a statement. In December, Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal told parliament that the Shein-Reliance partnership aimed to create a network of Indian suppliers of Shein-branded clothes for sale "domestically and globally". Shein is a fast-fashion behemoth earning annual revenue of over $30 billion through low prices and aggressive marketing. Most of its products are from China with some made in countries such as Turkey and Brazil. Its expansion in India mirrors interest in the country from the likes of Walmart (WMT.N), opens new tab and others throughout the global fashion and retail industries, particularly those looking for suppliers outside China due to the Sino-U.S. trade war. The Shein India app has been downloaded 2.7 million times across Apple and Google Play stores, averaging 120% on-month growth, showed data from market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. Offerings during its first four months have reached 12,000 designs, a fraction of the 600,000 products on its U.S. site. In the women's dresses category, its cheapest item is priced 349 Indian rupees ($4) versus $3.39 on the U.S. site as of June 9. Shein's Indian partner Reliance, which operates the app, is working with suppliers to assess whether they can replicate Shein's global best-sellers at lower cost, the two people said. Reliance aims to emulate Shein's on-demand manufacturing model, asking suppliers to make as few as 100 pieces per design before increasing production of those that sell well, they said. Executives from Reliance recently visited China to understand Shein's "innovative" supply chain operations, "data driven" design processes and "disruptive" digital marketing, Manish Aziz, assistant vice president Shein India at Reliance Retail, said in a LinkedIn post in which he called Shein's scale and speed "truly incredible". The partnership is one of dozens Reliance has with fashion brands, such as Brooks Brothers and Marks and Spencer (MKS.L), opens new tab. The firm also runs e-commerce site Ajio and its retail network competes with Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab and Walmart's Flipkart as well as value retailers such as Tata's Zudio. Reliance plans to work with new suppliers to source fabric - especially fabric made using synthetic fibres where India lacks expertise - and import required machinery, the people said. The firm will invest in suppliers and help them grow which in turn will help the Shein-Reliance partnership go global, they said.

India central bank's large rate cut squeezes forward premiums, leaves rupee vulnerable, analysts say
India central bank's large rate cut squeezes forward premiums, leaves rupee vulnerable, analysts say

Reuters

time29 minutes ago

  • Reuters

India central bank's large rate cut squeezes forward premiums, leaves rupee vulnerable, analysts say

MUMBAI, June 9 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India's surprise outsized rate cut last week will leave the rupee vulnerable to further depreciation by pressuring already depressed foreign exchange forward premiums, several analysts said on Monday. The rupee has underperformed its Asian peers in 2025 amid weak capital flows. A narrowing interest rate differential — with the U.S. Federal Reserve moving slower than the RBI in cutting rates — suggests the Indian currency may continue to lag. The 1-month U.S. dollar/rupee forward premium — typically more sensitive to liquidity conditions — fell to 7.5 paisa, its lowest level since November. Meanwhile, the 1-year premium , which is more responsive to rate differential between the U.S. and India, declined to 1.5250 rupees, marking its lowest level in nearly a year. GRAPHIC: A drop in dollar/rupee forward premiums makes the rupee less attractive for carry trades, and diminishes the incentive for exporters to hedge future receivables. At the same time, it raises the likelihood that importers—who typically hedge near-term payment obligations—will step up their hedging activity. The decline in premiums - a less favourable rate differential between the U.S. and India - could leave the rupee open to sharper depreciation. Against the backdrop of benign inflation and the need to support growth, the Reserve Bank of India last Friday delivered a larger-than-expected 50 basis point rate (bps) cut, exceeding the 25 bps anticipated by economists. In a further easing move, the central bank slashed the cash reserve ratio for banks. "One thing the rupee had going for it is that it offered attractive carry ... with the 50-bps rate cut from the RBI, carry attraction has been reduced," Mitul Kotecha, head of FX and EM macro strategy Asia at Barclays, adding that in an environment where investors are again focussed on carry, the rupee's appeal has been diminished. Falling premiums can be a "mild added headwind" for the rupee amid globally elevated yields, Dhiraj Nim, FX strategist at ANZ Research, said, and pointed out that if India growth data weaken, there could be scope for one more rate cut.

Business live: US-China trade talks in London buoy markets
Business live: US-China trade talks in London buoy markets

Times

timean hour ago

  • Times

Business live: US-China trade talks in London buoy markets

Mark Read is to step down as chief executive of WPP at the end of the year. In a brief stock exchange statement the advertising giant said that a search for a successor is under way. 'After seven years in the role, and with the foundations in place for WPP's continued success, I feel it is the right time to hand over the leadership of this amazing company,' Read said. His departure follows the appointment of Philip Jansen as chairman of WPP at the start of the year. WPP shares have fallen 32 per cent since the start of the year and are down 56 per cent since Read's appointment in September 2018. The FTSE 100 has risen 18 per cent over the period. Markets have been buoyed by optimism that the United States and China will ease trade tensions when representatives of both nations meet in London on Monday. Shares on Asian stock markets bounced, with Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng both gaining 1 per cent. Markets in Europe are expected to be more subdued. Scott Bessent, the US Treasury secretary, and other top Trump aides are expected to meet their Chinese counterparts at an undisclosed venue in London for talks to resolve the trade war between the nations. It comes as data from China showed export growth slowed to a three-month low in May, hit by US tariffs, and amid protests in Los Angeles over President Trump's immigration policies. • The government will deliver just over half of the 1.5 million new homes it has promised to build by 2029, according to Savills, the property agent, and there are fears the spending review this week could exacerbate the housing crisis.• The pharmaceutical industry has rejected a government offer to cut the cost of a contentious NHS drug pricing scheme as 'falling significantly short'• Nvidia has unveiled a slew of UK partnerships to boost artificial intelligence capabilities as concern increases that Britain is falling behind in the race to develop the technology. The $3.5 trillion multinational chip producer said it would work with the government to help businesses make use of AI.• Economic data released this week is expected to show wage growth moderated and that joblessness rose in the spring while the economy contracted.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store