Breaking down claim 17M people will lose health care under Trump's budget bill
The 17 million figure came from an analysis from KFF, a nonprofit organization focused on health policy, adding more recent numbers from the Congressional Budget Office. Further, Democrats on the Senate's Joint Economic Committee provided their own estimate using CBO data and landed on the same number.
This estimate was based on funding cuts added to the bill in the Senate for the Medicaid program, publicly funded health insurance for people with limited income and resources, and the Affordable Care Act of 2010, also known as Obamacare. Medicaid provided health care access for more than 78 million people as of this writing, according to the program's enrollment data.
The estimates included not only people affected by the budget bill, but also by other policies by the Trump administration, including the end of tax credits for health insurance premiums provided by the ACA.
However, these were estimates and only time will reveal how many people in the U.S. will lose health insurance as a result of this law.
As U.S. President Donald Trump signed his "Big Beautiful Bill" into law on July 4, 2025, rumors circulated that 17 million people would lose health care due to the legislation's cuts to Medicaid.
For example, House Democrats' X account posted a video of Rep. Laura Friedman, a Democrat from California, explaining what she believed the law would do (archived), like "[kick] 17 million off their health care."
On today's Democratic Daily Download, @RepFriedmanCA breaks down the top three things you need to know about the Republicans' One Big, Ugly Bill — from kicking 17 million off their health care to making life harder for parents, all to fund tax breaks for the ultra-rich. pic.twitter.com/xTuKIEdQEf
— House Democrats (@HouseDemocrats) July 9, 2025
This post had received 12,000 views as of this writing. The same claim appeared on Facebook, Reddit and X with prominent Democrats such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom (archived) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, of Massachusetts, spreading the rumor.
The new law provided for about $1 trillion in funding cuts for Medicaid, according to a June 30 note by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities based on data from the Congressional Budget Office.
Medicaid had more than 78 million enrollees as of March 2025.
In a June 16 letter to Sen. Ron Wyden, a Democrat from Oregon, and Democratic Reps. Frank Pallone and Richard Neal, of New Jersey and Massachusetts, respectively, the CBO estimated the budget bill that had just passed the House would result in 16 million people becoming uninsured by 2034. This number included 10.9 million people who would lose Medicaid coverage and others who would lose health coverage obtained through marketplaces set up by the Affordable Care Act of 2010, also known as Obamacare.
When the bill was later amended in the Senate, the CBO revised its estimates upward, saying it would result in 11.8 million people losing Medicaid and ACA coverage. This led KFF — a nonprofit organization focused on health policy — to estimate that 17 million people would lose access to health insurance by 2034.
The Democrats of the Joint Economic Committee also created an estimate based on CBO data, breaking down numbers by state and asserting that 17 million people across the U.S. would lose their health insurance by 2034 due to the budget bill and other policies of the Trump administration.
Though the bill ultimately passed the House without changes on July 3, 2025, and Trump signed it into law the following day, it is important to note that these were estimates. The number of people who will lose insurance in the U.S. as a result of this law and other Trump administration policies will become clearer starting in 2026.
Cox, Cynthia. "About 17 Million More People Could Be Uninsured due to the Big Beautiful Bill and Other Policy Changes." KFF, 1 July 2025, www.kff.org/quick-take/about-17-million-more-people-could-be-uninsured-due-to-the-big-beautiful-bill-and-other-policy-changes/. Accessed 2 July 2025.
"Estimated Budgetary Effects of an Amendment in the Nature of a Substitute to H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Relative to CBO's January 2025 Baseline." Congressional Budget Office, 29 June 2025, www.cbo.gov/publication/61534. Accessed 2 July 2025.
Euhus, Rhiannon, et al. "Allocating CBO's Estimates of Federal Medicaid Spending Reductions across the States: Senate Reconciliation Bill | KFF." KFF, 1 July 2025, www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/allocating-cbos-estimates-of-federal-medicaid-spending-reductions-across-the-states-senate-reconciliation-bill/. Accessed 2 July 2025.
Medicaid. "October 2024 Medicaid & CHIP Enrollment Data Highlights | Medicaid." Medicaid.gov, 2025, www.medicaid.gov/medicaid/program-information/medicaid-and-chip-enrollment-data/report-highlights. Accessed 2 July 2025.
News, NBC. "Live Updates: Trump-Backed 'Big Beautiful' Bill Moves to House after Senate Republicans Make Changes." NBC News, 2 July 2025, www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/live-blog/trump-big-beautiful-bill-house-taxes-immigration-live-updates-rcna215840. Accessed 2 July 2025.
States, United. "Press Releases - United States Joint Economic Committee." Senate.gov, 30 June 2025, www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/democrats/press-releases. Accessed 2 July 2025.
Swagel, Phillip. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE. 4 June 2025, www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-06/Wyden-Pallone-Neal_Letter_6-4-25.pdf. Accessed 2 July 2025.
Hubbard, Kaia, and Caitlin Yilek. "House Convenes to Take up Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' after Senate Passage." Cbsnews.com, CBS News, 2 July 2025, www.cbsnews.com/news/house-vote-big-beautiful-bill-rules-committee/. Accessed 10 July 2025.
Ramirez, Gabe. "Trump Signs 'Big Beautiful Bill' | CNN Politics." Cnn.com, 4 July 2025, www.cnn.com/2025/07/04/politics/video/trump-big-beautiful-bill-signing-vrtc. Accessed 10 July 2025.
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