Export losses of $305 bn expected in 2025: Allianz Trade Global Survey
Before the so-called 'Liberation Day', when US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs against nearly all trading partners in early April, only 5 per cent of companies anticipated such a drop.
Positive export forecasts with expected revenue increases have more than halved, falling to just 40 per cent. Allianz Trade chief executive officer Aylin Somersan Coqui said that globally, export losses of $305 billion are expected in 2025.
The wave of new US tariffs has dramatically dampened the mood among exporters, with 42 per cent of firms surveyed worldwide now expecting a 2-10 -per cent drop in revenues, a study by Allianz Trade found. Positive export forecasts with expected revenue rises have more than halved, falling to 40 per cent. Nearly half expect a rising risk of payment defaultsâ€'especially in the US, Italy and the UK.
The credit insurer surveyed 4,500 exporters in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, the United Kingdom, the United States, Singapore, and China about global trade in March and April.
The responses became noticeably more pessimistic following Trump's announcements. In Germany, 39 per cent of respondents expect a decline in their export revenues.
Meanwhile, some of the new tariffs against the European Union (EU) and China have been put on hold to allow 90 days for negotiations. With new deals, Trump aims to put trade relations with numerous countries on a new footing. "The big stockpiling is likely entering its second round now," said Allianz Trade expert Jasmin Groschl.
"In the coming months, companies will try to export as much as they can—and at the same time, fill their own warehouses with goods needed for their own production and business," she noted.
Twenty-four per cent of German companies reported that they had already started this process before the US election in November 2024. Many more firms became active after the election.
Some companies may resort to drastic measures. In Germany, 34 per cent of surveyed firms said they are considering a temporary halt to production. This is especially the case in industries that are heavily dependent on imported intermediate goods. Globally, the figure stands at 27 per cent.
According to Groschl, smaller suppliers could be forced out of the market, while larger corporations might be able to weather such measures. "However, such a step is likely to be taken only in extreme cases," he noted.
Nearly half of respondents worldwide expect an increased risk of payment defaults—especially in the United States, Italy and the United Kingdom.
In Germany, 37 per cent anticipate deteriorating payment discipline, and 34 per cent expect more payment defaults.
To cope with their own higher costs, 38 per cent of companies globally said they intend to pass them on to customers. This intention is particularly strong in the United States, at 54 per cent. German exporters are more cautious, with only 32 per cent planning price increases. In fact, 17 percent in Germany even plan to lower prices to maintain market share.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
29 minutes ago
- Time of India
DDA allocates land at Nehru Place for 5-star hotel for 55-yr period
New Delhi: Delhi Development Authority's first attempt to offer land for a five-star hotel on an annually incremental licence fee fetched Rs 27.2 crore per annum against the reserve fee of Rs 18 crore. The bid, won by one of the biggest hotel chains in the country, will generate revenues of Rs 10,000 crore for DDA over the licence period of 55 years. The initiative will provide a much-needed boost to the hospitality sector while contributing to DDA's coffers. "It was on the directions of lieutenant governor VK Saxena that DDA decided to move away from the existing freehold and perpetual lease models and chose a 'special licence property' mode to offer lands for prominent projects on annual incremental licence fee," an official said. The official explained that the experience of the last two decades showed that the freehold and perpetual lease models were not achieving desired results due to the high cost of land. "In contrast, the special licence property initiative is a key step towards leveraging DDA's land assets for sustainable, high-value development, contributing to Delhi's emergence as a global destination for business, hospitality, and medical treatment. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like New German Hearing Device Sweeping Canada (And Under $100) Top Trending News Today Learn More Undo It will also ensure that DDA continues to be the owner of the land," the official said. You Can Also Check: Delhi AQI | Weather in Delhi | Bank Holidays in Delhi | Public Holidays in Delhi | Gold Rates Today in Delhi | Silver Rates Today in Delhi The initiative included making suitable and viable land parcels available to different sectors such as hospitality, warehousing, health, iconic retail and other large-scale developments. As a part of this initiative, the first land parcel offered was of around two acres at Nehru Place for a five-star hotel, announced through a request for proposal issued on May 2. The auction was conducted on Aug 13, in which Fleur Hotels Pvt Ltd, a subsidiary of Lemon Tree Hotels Limited, emerged as the winning bidder. SBI Capital Markets Ltd assisted DDA as the transaction advisor for the auction process. "The company secured this project for an annual licence fee of Rs 27.19 crore. The yearly licence fee will escalate annually and is expected to generate around Rs 10,000 crore as revenues for DDA over the 55-year licence period," said a DDA official. The hotel to be named Aurika Nehru Place is set to become one of the city's biggest with over 500 rooms. It claimed it would offer elegant rooms, suites, signat-ure dining, expansive banqueting and best-in-class leisure facilities. Stay updated with the latest local news from your city on Times of India (TOI). Check upcoming bank holidays , public holidays , and current gold rates and silver prices in your area.
The Hindu
an hour ago
- The Hindu
Trump's Tariff Threat Tests India-US Relations
Published : Aug 16, 2025 19:25 IST - 6 MINS READ There is a distinct souring of sentiment in the narrative across India's 24-hour news channels. A news anchor opens her piece with a sarcastic diatribe on how, if only Trump were president of the USA in the past, so much could have been avoided through history; the First World War, the Second World War, all of it. The screen behind her displays an image of the US president with the text 'Earth is spinning better, thank Trump!'. The title of this video op-ed piece is 'Why Trump Should Never Win the Nobel Peace Prize'. It is a marked departure from the rapturous reception a second Trump term got only nine months back. A statement released then by India's External Affairs Ministry described how the two leaders had reaffirmed their commitment to a mutually beneficial and trusted partnership and agreed to remain in touch and meet soon. Social media and news coverage were awash with praise both for this sweeping victory and the warm and cordial relations between Mr Trump and Mr Modi. President Trump's decision and threat to now impose a 50 per cent tariff by the end of August because of India's purchase of Russian oil has escalated a stand-off over trade and led to a spiral of news flow; the US will regret treating India this way, warns one piece; US-India relations are at their worst, bemoans another. The social media clarion has sounded—it is time to ditch American products and companies like McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Amazon; although how exactly that will be done remains unclear. All this unfolding while a fresh deadline to this hefty tariff clocks down. So much has changed in nine months. India has for now been steely in its response; but both choices present hard outcomes. Global commodity data shows India imported about 1.8 million barrels per day of Russian crude in the first half of the year, which is about 37 per cent of its total imports. Since 2023, India has been the biggest market for Russian crude, and between the two largest buyers of Russian crude, India and China, it is India that is clearly more dependent. According to data and analytics company Kpler, India imported 89 million tonnes (seaborne crude) last year, which was more than China's import. Switching crude oil varieties and buyers is neither going to be easy nor practical for India's refineries, aside from the fact that it also threatens to ratchet up prices. Also Read | America's melting ice cube and other tariff fairy tales On the flip side, the collateral damage of a 50 per cent tariff slap will be large. There are a number of export-oriented industries that are already feeling jittery; textiles, for one, the gems and jewellery sector, another, where the US makes up 30 per cent of its exports. Many export-oriented industries are in fact also labour-intensive industries, and a hit to their fortunes will have a massive knock-on effect on jobs. The list of vulnerable companies includes the big gun, Reliance Industries, which signed a 10-year contract to buy nearly 5,00,000 barrels a day of crude from Russia's state-owned Rosneft, making it the biggest-ever energy agreement between the two nations. Reliance has been exporting its refined products to both Europe and North America. A breakdown in ties with Western countries will mean significant changes in its business and perhaps its profitability in the months to come. India's domestic advantage with a large consumer market has been pointed to, but whichever way you cut it, a tariff hike of this quantum will see economic damage and dented investor sentiment for the country. There are counter-arguments to the possibility of a grim reset in Indo-US ties. One, that this will be yet another flip-flop by the US President, where a resolution of some sort will be cobbled together before the end of August, which is the deadline set by him. Two, that the two countries are now intertwined across too human and financial capital strands; Indian tech firms have long been present in America's industry through its services and its engineers. Money now flows both ways through venture capital and significant equity market exposure. Ripping all that apart will take more than tariff sabre-rattling. All or some of this may prove to be true. But there are also two clear questions here that need to be reckoned with. India was used to being the 'pick me' candidate when it came to China, where there was tactical and strategic advantage in building strong relations with India to offset China's growing strength in the region. Many nations, the US included, are having a rethink about that approach. China is no longer taboo, and India is no longer the counterfoil to China's regional dominance. Worse yet is the distinct turn in relations between the US and India's other neighbour, Pakistan. What started with a rather embarrassing display of cornering credit, President Trump claimed he was the one to put a stop to an imminent war between India and Pakistan—a claim that has been consistently repeated while speaking on the subject. While Indian diplomatic channels frantically tried to belie that take, Pakistan not only concurred with the US President's statement, it went on to nominate Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. Relations between the US and Pakistan have been on the upswing since then, ranging from private lunches with Pakistan's top military brass and talks about potentially boosting trade and commercial ties. It has left the Indian government with egg on its face and a disgruntled domestic mood. India and Pakistan, to America's mind are now firmly re-hyphenated. Also Read | Modi's foreign policy in shreds as non-alignment becomes multi-alignment How did it all turn sour so quickly when the singular narrative so far has been Prime Minister Modi's outstanding personal equation with Trump—from walking out hand in hand to address a rally in Houston, Texas a few years ago, to what is now being termed the lowest point in Indo-US ties in many decades; the 'great friendship' has not yielded any joy on economic ties. Perhaps the first lesson then is when policies—foreign, national, or economic—are built around personalities rather than nations, egos tend to get in the way. Especially when there is a domestic fan base that has been cheering the 'strongman' approach to cater to. There is also a view that this could be the moment India dives into structural reforms. In other words, this will be the catalyst for the great reset. As we wait on that outcome to emerge, it gives rise to the second question: Was that not the plan with the 'Make in India' campaign launched a decade ago? What has gone so sorely wrong ten years into its launch, where is the performance audit on the promised nation-building initiatives, the manufacturing thrust, more jobs for more people? This present round of tariff threats and ultimatums could go in any direction. Frankly, it does not even matter. The economic ground is shifting beneath the feet of both leaders. Time to see who has feet of clay. Mitali Mukherjee is the Director of the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, University of Oxford. She is a political economy journalist with more than two decades of experience in TV, print and digital journalism. Mitali has co-founded two start-ups that focussed on civil society and financial literacy and her key areas of interest are gender and climate change.
Hindustan Times
an hour ago
- Hindustan Times
No fresh hike in tariff over oil, Donald Trump hints
US President Donald Trump appeared to rule out increased tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil following his summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, while also suggesting existing penalties on India may not escalate further, providing relief for countries caught in Washington's pressure campaign against Moscow. US President Donald Trump shakes hand with Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meet at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska. (REUTERS) Trump indicated that secondary sanctions on major oil buyers were no longer under immediate consideration after his three-hour meeting with the Russian president on Friday. 'Well, because of what happened today, I think I don't have to think about that,' Trump said of tariffs on China and more severe economic punishment for Russia for continuing the war in Ukraine. 'Now, I may have to think about it in two weeks or three weeks or something, but we don't have to think about that right now. I think, you know, the meeting went very well,' Trump added. The comments came despite the summit failing to produce a deal to end the Ukraine war, which has raged since Russia's invasion in February 2022. Prior to the meeting, Trump said 'he (Putin) lost an oil client, so to speak, which is India, which was doing about 40 per cent of the if I did what's called a secondary sanction, or a secondary tariff, it would be very devastating from their standpoint. If I have to do it, I'll do it. Maybe I won't have to do it,' offering hints that could be construed positively in New Delhi. Trump's statement came amid talk that had the Alaska Summit not gone well, India could be hit with a harsher levy. 'We've put secondary tariffs on Indians for buying Russian oil. And I could see, if things don't go well, then sanctions or secondary tariffs could go up,' US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said in a television interview on Wednesday. The US has already imposed tariffs totalling 50% on India, including a 25% penalty for Russian oil purchases that will take effect on August 27, making India one of the most heavily penalised US trading partners. Trump's more conciliatory tone followed his earlier revelation that the India tariffs were designed to pressure Russia by cutting off oil revenue, with the president claiming Moscow 'called and wanted to meet' after losing its second-largest energy customer. India welcomed the Alaska summit between the Russian and American leaders, expressing support for dialogue-based solutions to the Ukraine conflict. 'India welcomes the summit meeting in Alaska between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Their leadership in the pursuit of peace is highly commendable,' the Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement released after the summit. 'India appreciates the progress made at the summit. The way forward can only be through dialogue and diplomacy. The world wants to see an early end to the conflict in Ukraine,' it added. Russia currently accounts for more than a third of India's energy purchases, up from less than 1% in 2022 following Western sanctions over the Ukraine invasion. China remains Russia's largest oil customer. India has defended its energy purchases as necessary for economic security, calling US targeting 'unjustified and unreasonable' whilst arguing that Western countries maintain their own trade relationships with Russia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin this month, offering Indian diplomatic support to aid the peace process in his call with the former. Modi has consistently called for dialogue and diplomacy since the invasion began, making separate visits to Russia and Ukraine last year whilst urging both leaders to return to negotiations. Trump announced following the summit that he would meet Zelensky in Washington on Monday, potentially followed by a trilateral meeting with Putin, as diplomatic efforts to end the conflict continue.
