Export losses of $305 bn expected in 2025: Allianz Trade Global Survey
The wave of new US tariffs has dramatically dampened the mood among exporters, with 42 per cent of companies surveyed worldwide now expecting a drop in their export revenues between 2 per cent and 10 per cent, according to a study released recently in Hamburg by credit insurer Allianz Trade.
Before the so-called 'Liberation Day', when US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs against nearly all trading partners in early April, only 5 per cent of companies anticipated such a drop.
Positive export forecasts with expected revenue increases have more than halved, falling to just 40 per cent. Allianz Trade chief executive officer Aylin Somersan Coqui said that globally, export losses of $305 billion are expected in 2025.
The wave of new US tariffs has dramatically dampened the mood among exporters, with 42 per cent of firms surveyed worldwide now expecting a 2-10 -per cent drop in revenues, a study by Allianz Trade found. Positive export forecasts with expected revenue rises have more than halved, falling to 40 per cent. Nearly half expect a rising risk of payment defaultsâ€'especially in the US, Italy and the UK.
The credit insurer surveyed 4,500 exporters in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, the United Kingdom, the United States, Singapore, and China about global trade in March and April.
The responses became noticeably more pessimistic following Trump's announcements. In Germany, 39 per cent of respondents expect a decline in their export revenues.
Meanwhile, some of the new tariffs against the European Union (EU) and China have been put on hold to allow 90 days for negotiations. With new deals, Trump aims to put trade relations with numerous countries on a new footing. "The big stockpiling is likely entering its second round now," said Allianz Trade expert Jasmin Groschl.
"In the coming months, companies will try to export as much as they can—and at the same time, fill their own warehouses with goods needed for their own production and business," she noted.
Twenty-four per cent of German companies reported that they had already started this process before the US election in November 2024. Many more firms became active after the election.
Some companies may resort to drastic measures. In Germany, 34 per cent of surveyed firms said they are considering a temporary halt to production. This is especially the case in industries that are heavily dependent on imported intermediate goods. Globally, the figure stands at 27 per cent.
According to Groschl, smaller suppliers could be forced out of the market, while larger corporations might be able to weather such measures. "However, such a step is likely to be taken only in extreme cases," he noted.
Nearly half of respondents worldwide expect an increased risk of payment defaults—especially in the United States, Italy and the United Kingdom.
In Germany, 37 per cent anticipate deteriorating payment discipline, and 34 per cent expect more payment defaults.
To cope with their own higher costs, 38 per cent of companies globally said they intend to pass them on to customers. This intention is particularly strong in the United States, at 54 per cent. German exporters are more cautious, with only 32 per cent planning price increases. In fact, 17 percent in Germany even plan to lower prices to maintain market share.
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Time of India
36 minutes ago
- Time of India
Asian stocks advance on trade talks, US jobs data
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Mint
2 hours ago
- Mint
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Rate-sensitive sectors like realty, financials, and auto were the biggest beneficiaries, with other sectors also performing well. Broader market indices also extended their gains, rising between 0.8% and 1.2%. While the Nifty 50 is still in a consolidation phase, the renewed vigor in rate-sensitive sectors, especially the breakout in the banking index, has reignited hopes for a sustained upward trend. A definitive break above 25,200 on the Nifty could initiate the next leg of the rally, potentially propelling the index towards 25,600. Looking ahead, the impact of the recent rate cut is expected to continue driving market sentiment. The rate-sensitive segments, along with specific themes like railways, are likely to remain in the spotlight, with other sectors contributing in a rotational manner. Finally, after some huffing and puffing, the Nifty 50 managed to crack through the resistance at 25,000 and powered its way higher by Friday. 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(TradingView) Bank Nifty compared to Nifty has fared well and would give us more than fair evidence of continued bullish play to emerge next week, however on dips. Considering the pointers, one should look to buy at lower levels in the indices. The sharp rise in trends on Friday beyond the much-touted resistances at 25,000 has given us some opportunity to look for some opportunities in Nifty now. Trading has been quite challenging as the movements are happening in spurts hence it's best to trade with suitable stop loss. Applying a fair amount of discretion shall enable us to profit from the volatility that shall continue, as we are now witnessing some positive vibes against the backdrop of a pensive global scenario. POLYCAB: Buy CMP and dips to ₹ 6,000 | Stop: ₹ 5,950 | Target: ₹ 6,525-6,700 Why POLYCAB is recommended: With about 25% organized market share, Polycab leads the domestic C&W market. The company is present in both cables (65% of the sales mix) and wires (25-30% of the mix).However, Jefferies feels that the stock will not face major headwinds as it already has an established presence and the new competition will take time to impact the revenues. This has led to a double bottom formation and a gradual ascent to the top . With prices holding firm at the TS line we can consider going long. With about 25% organized market share, Polycab leads the domestic C&W market. The company is present in both cables (65% of the sales mix) and wires (25-30% of the mix).However, Jefferies feels that the stock will not face major headwinds as it already has an established presence and the new competition will take time to impact the revenues. This has led to a double bottom formation and a gradual ascent to the top . With prices holding firm at the TS line we can consider going long. Key metrics P/E: 45.90 52-week high: ₹ 7,607.15 Volume: 319.43K Technical analysis: Support at ₹ 4,950; resistance at ₹ 6,950 Support at 4,950; resistance at 6,950 Risk factors: Market volatility and sector-wide fluctuations in geopolitical news could impact returns Market volatility and sector-wide fluctuations in geopolitical news could impact returns Buy at: CMP and dips to ₹ 6,000 CMP and dips to 6,000 Target price: ₹ 6,525-6,700 in 1 month 6,525-6,700 in 1 month Stop-loss: ₹ 5,950 BORORENEW: Buy CMP and dips to ₹ 542 | Stop: ₹ 525 | Target: ₹ 615-630 Why BORORENEW is recommended: BORORENEW posted weak Q4 numbers, indicating that the trends are under pressure. However, with the nature of the prices seen in the last few days we can comprehend that the newsflow has already been priced in. The volatile moves seen in the last 3 months are now seen giving up, indicating a possibility of some upward bounce as a V-U pattern is seen forming with volumes. Can look to go long. BORORENEW posted weak Q4 numbers, indicating that the trends are under pressure. However, with the nature of the prices seen in the last few days we can comprehend that the newsflow has already been priced in. The volatile moves seen in the last 3 months are now seen giving up, indicating a possibility of some upward bounce as a V-U pattern is seen forming with volumes. Can look to go long. Key metrics P/E: 225.05 52-week high: ₹ 644 Volume: 540.20K Technical analysis: Support at ₹ 460; resistance at ₹ 680 Support at 460; resistance at 680 Risk factors: Competition from streaming platforms and changing consumer preferences Competition from streaming platforms and changing consumer preferences Buy at: CMP and dips to ₹ 542 CMP and dips to 542 Target price: ₹ 615-630 in 1 month 615-630 in 1 month Stop-loss: ₹ 525 DALBHARAT: Buy above ₹ 2,120 and dips to ₹ 2,090 | Stop: ₹ 2,070 | Target: ₹ 2,250-2,325 Why DALBHARAT is recommended: The counter has been consolidating around the TS & KS Bands for the past few days. After a brief decline the stocks managed to gather support within the bands and produce a turnaround. After the recent test of the TS & KS bands and a strong closing on Friday we can look at some positive vibes to emerge. The counter has been consolidating around the TS & KS Bands for the past few days. After a brief decline the stocks managed to gather support within the bands and produce a turnaround. After the recent test of the TS & KS bands and a strong closing on Friday we can look at some positive vibes to emerge. Key metrics P/E: 208.50 52-week high: ₹ 2,166.70 Volume: 105.72K Technical analysis: Support at ₹ 2,050; resistance at ₹ 2,250 Support at 2,050; resistance at 2,250 Risk factors: Supplier retention and potential customer acquisition challenges Supplier retention and potential customer acquisition challenges Buy at: Above ₹ 2,120 and dips to ₹ 2,090 Above 2,120 and dips to 2,090 Target price: ₹ 2,250-2,325 in 1 month 2,250-2,325 in 1 month Stop-loss: ₹ 2,070 Raja Venkatraman is co-founder, NeoTrader. His Sebi-registered research analyst registration no. is INH000016223. Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantees performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Economic Times
2 hours ago
- Economic Times
US market outlook: Indian market recovery driven by govt spending & rural demand: Gokul Laroia, Morgan Stanley
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The recovery in Indian markets is entirely a function of the revival of government spending and rebound in rural demand, said Gokul Laroia, CEO Asia and co-head of global equities, Morgan Stanley . In an interview with Nishanth Vasudevan, Laroia spoke about US markets, the dollar and Indian IPOs, among other topics. Edited excerpts:We're positive on the US market because I think all the growth-unfriendly or market-unfriendly actions were taken first. The growth-friendly actions like tax bill, deregulation and financial conditions easing are now coming. And, earnings revisions in the US appear to have bottomed out and, in fact, are now inflecting and becoming more view on the US market continues to be pretty constructive. Now, all of this comes with a caveat. If you don't get a resolution to a lot of the more complicated trade situations, like those with the EU or China, that's obviously going to remain a headwind-and a persistent one. Which is why I tend to feel that the deal with India is actually more India, the market recovery is entirely a function of the revival of government spending and rebound in rural demand. Even if you don't see 7.5% persist, but say, 6.5% real GDP growth and 10-10.5% nominal-that'll provide a lot of support to the markets. Because that'll translate into mid-teen earnings growth and mid-teens ROE.A lot of people actually question the "Multiple India" trade. They say it's expensive, etc. And yes, it's expensive relative to where other markets are trading. But show me a market outside of the US that has high earnings growth, high return on equity, and low volatility. The US trades at 21-22 times earnings too. India trades at 21-22 times earnings. You could argue that the growth rates in India are higher but then the cost of capital in India is also six to eight months, the view was very cautious because of the slowdown in the macro, and earnings disappointment. Some capital was reallocated to China tech after DeepSeek, some capital went to Europe because there was this notion of fiscal expansion in Europe out of Germany. I think that's inflected. The global guys, or at least the classic long-only global guys, tend to be value-conscious. There's a view that India is expensive as a market. But honestly, for as long as I've been doing this, I can't think of a time when India hasn't been expensive as a market. But it continues to perform as a market because I think you've got to think about value in the context of earnings growth, returns on equity, low beta and macro variables. You get that package at 21 times earnings, not at 12 times is going to slow in the US. So a combination of what was actually supporting the dollar is now not going to be there. Our view is that the dollar continues to weaken for the foreseeable future. This year it's down against a basket of major trading partners by about 7-8%. We're of the view that it probably drops by an equivalent amount over the course of the next year or has a whole variety of factors at play. The most important one is the assessment of the US fiscal deficit. And, this tax bill is going to be growth accretive, but the concern that it's creating is that the deficit stays close to 7%. And a 7% deficit will mean that the US government is going to have to borrow a lot. And if the US government has to borrow a lot, then what happens to yields is a big question. Particularly as the traditional buyers of US Treasuries-Japan, China, perhaps even the EU-are perhaps not going to be as big as they were in the past.A little bit of it has happened. But if you think about it in the context of the amount of money that went into the US over the last 10 years versus the amount of money that's actually come out. It's very, very small. And the number one reason for that is that there is no market in the world that gives you the kind of scale the US market to do that in meaningful way is limited, just given scale and depth of markets relative to scale and depth of US. Historically, when the dollar weakened, money flowed into emerging markets. Can that happen again? Money has flown out of the US to emerging markets. But at the margin. Emerging markets can't absorb that much money. I mean, the amount of foreign capital that over the last 10 years has gone into the US—forget the underlying asset class—is over $10 trillion. If a few hundred billion moves into EMs, that'll have a real impact on emerging markets. The point I'm trying to make is that this (outflows) will be a small percentage of what came in, because the rest of the world does not have the ability to absorb that kind of capital. That places the US in a pretty special position. In India, there's a flood of paper (IPOs, promoters selling) in the best thing for Indian market is more paper coming, more liquidity getting generated as a result of paper, and more asset managers trading these markets more actively. If there's too much paper, it has a near-term impact.
