Trump's sanctions could force Russia's Putin to negotiating table, some experts say

Voice of America

27-01-2025

On Jan. 22, Donald Trump — just two days after being inaugurated for his second term as U.S. president — again called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the "ridiculous" war with Ukraine, but this time he added a threat.
"If we don't make a 'deal,' and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries," Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social.
The following day, Trump told reporters that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had told him he's ready to negotiate an end to the war. In an interview with Fox News aired that same day, Trump said Zelenskyy is "no angel" and 'shouldn't have allowed this war to happen.'
Does the new U.S. administration have sufficient economic leverage over Russia to force it to make peace, or at least talk about peace?
According to Konstantin Sonin, John Dewey distinguished service professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and former vice rector of Moscow's Higher School of Economics, the U.S. has economic leverage, but some of its levers are clearly weaker than others.
"Russia's trade with the U.S. is very small — less than $3 billion a year," he told Danila Galperovich of VOA's Russian Service. "Accordingly, even if any opportunity for U.S. companies to trade with Russia is completely closed, the damage to Russia will be small. There is an opportunity to strengthen secondary sanctions — that is, additional pressure, first of all, on China, on India, on other countries, so that they more strictly comply with the primary sanctions.
"There is also an opportunity to continue what [former U.S. President Joe] Biden did with sanctions against the Russian shadow tanker fleet," Sonin added, referring to vessels that Russia uses to sell oil and evade Western sanctions.
"This requires great international cooperation, but, in principle, it can be done," said Sonin.
Economist Vladislav Inozemtsev, a special adviser to the Russian Media Studies Project at MEMRI, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, and director of the Moscow-based Center for Post-Industrial Studies, also stressed the significance of secondary sanctions on countries that do business with Russia.
"Trump can somehow influence other countries so that they do not buy Russian products,' Inozemtsev told VOA. 'For example, let's say he can say that if India buys Russian oil, then the United States will impose 15% duties on all goods from India. This would have the most radical consequences. [I]f… countries trading with Russia are getting serious problems in the United States for all their products, then I think that this will be a very sobering moment. If it is possible to impose a virtually complete trade blockade through U.S. sanctions, then these will be devastating sanctions, of course."
Sonin said that, over the longer term, deregulating oil production internationally would reduce world oil prices and thereby hinder Moscow's ability to finance its military operations against Ukraine.
"Trump is famous for his good relations with Saudi Arabia, although they are unlikely to be so good that they will reduce oil prices at his request," he said. "But nevertheless, it is possible to work towards lowering oil prices, which even without sanctions will reduce Russian income."
Trump spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in a Jan. 22 telephone call.
Still, Sonin said that economic levers, in and of themselves, cannot force Putin to do anything. "I would say that the most direct impact is still the supply of more powerful weapons to Ukraine. I do not know to what extent Trump wants to do this, but he mentioned it, and, in principle, it is possible to supply Ukraine with more powerful weapons in larger quantities."
Inozemtsev, however, said that Putin, who has not previously changed his behavior in response to ultimatums, could do so this time.
"Trump is a person whose degree of radicalism and unpredictability corresponds to Putin's," he said. "Here, perhaps, it would be better for Putin to change his mind a bit. If Trump offers him: 'Vladimir, let's go, we'll meet there, sit down at the negotiating table, bring your team, I'll bring mine, and we'll agree on something, we'll discuss it for a day or two, but the issue needs to be resolved,' I think Putin will go."