Shift in rain patterns, weather big concern as climate change hits India

India Today

27-05-2025

India is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to projected climate change impacts, with heat stress emerging as the single largest concern. The prospect of extreme heat and heat stress arises from the widespread, rapid changes in ocean temperatures combined with steadily rising atmospheric heat retention.The India Heat Summit 2025 is deliberating on the issue of rising temperatures and shared solutions. The summit will also advise the government on long-term measures to deal with its impact.advertisementThe deliberation is also focusing on issues related to unseasonal rainfall and the very frequent heavy rainfall occurring in the western parts of India, including the record-breaking rains in Mumbai on Monday—breaching a hundred-year record.
Environmentalists are concerned about such frequent incidents of high-intensity rain occurring in a short period.Saumya Swaminathan, environmentalist and Chairperson of MSSRF, told India Today that Urban flooding is rising due to multiple factors—partly climate change, and partly poor planning. While total rainfall hasn't changed much over the decade, it's now falling in fewer hours, making it harder for cities to cope. "Yes, climate change has intensified rainfall — but it's also a planning failure. We need to rethink urban design. We can't keep building the same way in Delhi, the Himalayas, and coastal areas. That approach must change," she added.advertisementVishwas Chitale, environmentalist at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, points out that erratic rainfall and early monsoons aren't entirely new phenomena—they've been observed over many years. However, what has changed is the intensity and concentration of rainfall in short periods.Studies show that regions like Rajasthan, Gujarat, central Maharashtra, and Karnataka have seen rainfall increase by up to 30% over the last decade compared to the previous 30-year average. This rise isn't spread evenly across the season; instead, it is marked by short, intense downpours, such as those seen recently in Mumbai—an outcome of increasingly erratic monsoon behaviour.Chitale stresses the need for proactive prevention through robust early warning systems. He highlights India's ongoing efforts, such as the Monsoon Mission weather forecast model, as important steps forward. But he adds that what's crucial now is scaling these systems across urban India with detailed observation networks to provide timely alerts and minimize damage from such extreme events.Environmentalists agree that these extreme weather patterns are a direct result of climate change, but also point to significant governance gaps. Aarti Khosla from Climate Trends noted that warming oceans are carrying more moisture, leading to more intense and erratic rainfall. She emphasised that cities are ill-prepared for such events, lacking resilient infrastructure for transport, public health, and emergency response. According to her, the early onset of the southwest monsoon, as seen in Mumbai, is a warning sign—and India must urgently integrate weather data with urban planning to protect vulnerable populations.advertisementAccording to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN's climate science body, India is projected to be one of the most vulnerable regions to escalating heatwaves, humid heat stress, and other extreme weather events in a 1.5C warmer world—threats that could bring irreversible consequences.With over 90% of its workforce employed in the informal sector, in the world's most densely populated country, India faces heightened exposure to both the physical dangers and economic risks of rising heat stress.In recent years, the country has experienced record-breaking temperatures year after year, with early summer arriving as soon as February or March. Heatwaves have become more frequent, prolonged, and intense.In many areas, temperatures have soared close to 50C in recent years—leading to increased illness and loss of life, especially among vulnerable groups such as the elderly, children, and outdoor workers.India spans five distinct climatic zones—tropical, arid, semi-arid, temperate, and alpine—all of which are now experiencing severe disruptions due to rising temperatures.advertisementIn the north, accelerated glacial melt and glacial lake formation are intensifying flood risks. Forest fires and water scarcity are putting pressure on hill ecosystems in states like Uttarakhand.The arid and semi-arid regions are seeing erratic rainfall patterns, upending agricultural cycles. Traditional climate zones are flipping: flood-prone areas now face droughts, and vice versa.Along India's 7,500-km coastline, the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are witnessing increased cyclogenesis—leading to stronger, more frequent storms, saltwater intrusion, humid heatwaves, affected fisheries, and rising sea level risks.Scientific studies show a clear spatial-temporal shift in heatwave occurrences across India, with rising trends in three major regions: north-western, central, and south-central India.According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), the most affected states and union territories include Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Chhattisgarh.The economic and social toll of these extreme conditions is enormous. The Reserve Bank of India estimates that extreme heat and humidity could lead to a 4.5% loss in GDP by 2030 due to reduced labour productivity.Changes in monsoon patterns and rising temperatures could further reduce GDP by 2.8% by 2030, potentially lowering living standards for nearly half the population by 2050.advertisementWithout effective mitigation policies, India could face annual GDP losses of 3-10% by 2100.As climate-induced extremes intensify, it's critical to assess temperature-related risks across key sectors like energy, industry, agriculture, and urban development.In May 2024, India's power consumption surged by 15%, reaching a record peak demand of 250.07 GW, driven by extreme heat and surpassing all previous records.Rising temperatures have increased the demand for residential cooling, industrial operations, and irrigation, making India more reliant on thermal power to meet its growing energy needs.Experts project a 9-10% increase in energy demand in 2025, driven in part by a sharp rise in air conditioner sales—highlighting both the rising energy demand and the growing disparity in access.From generation to transmission to distribution, high temperatures strain energy systems. Experts note that as a conductor heats up, its molecules vibrate more, increasing resistance and reducing efficiency.This became evident in 2022, when India experienced its worst electricity shortage in over six years, leading to power cuts in homes and industries. For the manufacturing sector, such supply disruptions can severely impact production timelines and raise costs.advertisementThe impact of heat stress extends far beyond the power grid. According to the World Bank, over 34 million jobs in India could be at risk due to heat exposure. Between 2001 and 2020, India lost around 259 billion hours of labour—worth US$ 624 billion (INR 46 lakh crore) annually—due to extreme heat and humidity.India's micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs)—the backbone of the economy—are especially vulnerable to productivity declines, infrastructure damage, supply chain disruptions, and job losses.In 2022, heatwaves forced India to ban wheat exports after extreme temperatures slashed yields—highlighting the vulnerability of both the agriculture sector and global food supply chains.Agricultural scientists say heat stress has reduced rice yields by 15–20% across different varieties.According to NDMA, broader impacts of heat stress on agriculture include declining soil moisture, water insecurity, increasing pest varieties, crop wilting, reduced food quality and nutrition, lower milk production, and impacts on animal husbandry.The growing threat of heat stress calls for urgent mid- and long-term strategies—both structural and non-structural—to limit economic and social fallout. Heat Action Plans remain India's main policy tool but require stronger coordination, greater investment, and cross-sector integration.To build resilience, India will need investment in cooling infrastructure, better urban design, early warning systems, and adaptive social protection. The real challenge lies in not just recognising heat as an economic threat, but also in mobilising targeted finance to tackle it and protect livelihoods.India's challenge is unique: it must build heat resilience while sustaining economic growth to create jobs and lift millions out of poverty. This calls for coordinated solutions from national, state, and local governments, industries, and academia.The Heat Conference being organised by Climate Trends aims to bring together these stakeholders to address what may be India's single greatest climate risk.Must Watch