Can India's renewable energy targets meet the growing demand?
India has set ambitious goals to expand its renewable energy (RE) capacity, aiming for 500 gigawatts (GW) of installed electricity generation from non-fossil sources by 2030. This would require more than doubling the non-fossil capacity installed as of late 2024, with most of this growth expected to come from solar and wind energy.At the forefront of developing renewable energy infrastructure, India has set the target of generating 50 per cent of its energy needs through the renewable route by 2030 and net-zero emission target by 2070. However, several studies have estimated that the incumbent plans may not be enough to meet the country's growing demand for power, indicating continuing reliance on fossil fuels.advertisement'India's Renewables Target Falls Short of Growing Demand', a study released this month by the New Delhi-based Centre for Social and Economic Progress, indicates that even with the planned increases in renewable energy capacity, India's 2030 targets are likely to fall short of meeting the country's projected electricity demand growth by approximately 11.8 per cent in the future.The study, authored by Rohit Vijay and Rahul Tongia, highlights factors that influence the balance between India's growing electricity demand and its renewable energy capacity. The first is underestimation of demand growth. 'The Electric Power Survey by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) may have underestimated India's actual electricity demand growth. Realistic growth rates, based on actual 2023 demand, indicate that even more renewable energy capacity will be needed to meet the rising demand,' says the working paper.advertisement
Next, the study points out that the solar-heavy mix of India's renewable energy strategy is not ideal. 'While solar energy has become more cost-effective, it also has limitations, such as availability only during daylight hours. This increases the value of wind energy, which can provide power at different times of the day and has a higher Capacity Utilisation Factor (CUF) in some regions. The intermittent nature of solar and wind energy leads to periods of both oversupply and under-supply, making it crucial to analyse the time-of-day patterns of both supply and demand. Yet again, this underscores the need for a reliable back-up mechanism, with coal remaining the backstop for India even after accounting for modest growth in nuclear power and hydropower,' states the report.CUF and renewable energy are interlinked. A higher CUF means more energy is generated from the same installed capacity, reducing the overall renewable energy capacity required. India needs to focus on technologies and practices that enhance CUF, such as higher hub heights for wind turbines and optimal solar tracking, the study highlights.Besides, energy storage can play a crucial role in balancing the variability of renewable energy by shifting surplus energy to deficit periods. However, the study points out that storage has limitations, including efficiency losses and seasonal mismatches between surplus and deficit energy.advertisementA 2024 study by TERI (The Energy and Resources Institute), 'India's Electricity Transition Pathways to 2050', also expresses concerns about meeting the country's actual demands. The report emphasises on the need for a detailed techno-economic assessment of India's renewable energy resource potential, indicating that the current understanding may be inadequate or that the economic viability of harnessing it at a very large scale needs further scrutiny.Subscribe to India Today Magazine
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