Post Pahalgam terror attack – A view on Indian approach (part 1)
Whenever there is any mention of an Indo–Pak conflict, there is always a discussion on the likely role of China in such an eventuality. Perhaps, rightly so too since China and Pakistan have a strong alliance and India shares a long-unsettled border with China. In the current scenario after the Pahalgam terror attack, once again this subject is under discussion.
Both India and China, two of the world's largest nations, have huge aspirations to become economic super powers with matching military might. China has already stolen a march over India in both and we are playing a 'catching up' game which is far from easy. To make matters worse for India, China is a permanent member of the United Nation's Security Council: a seat that was offered to India in 1950 but for reasons unknown, late Prime Minister, Mr Nehru, recommended that it should be offered to China instead. China was quick to seize the opportunity and it has served the country well ever since while India has often been on the receiving end from the deliberations in the UNSC.
A lot is said about the Chinese investment in Pakistan, mainly related to the China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). CPEC is a major initiative of China, as part of BRI, to achieve larger connectivity and cooperation with Eurasian nations (South & Central Asian nations). BRI aims to give a significant boost to Pakistan's infrastructure, transportation and energy systems. As part of BRI, China aims to develop the Gwadar port which apart from facilitating trade also has a huge strategic importance in the region. Despite some hiccups along the way, particularly the resistance from Baluchistan based pro-independence groups, the project is moving forward. In the process, the two nations have become strategically allied and Pakistan has become increasingly dependent on Chinese aid and support. The attacks by Baluchi insurgents to derail the projects, have resulted in the presence of thousands of Chinese troops in Pakistan as part of security measures to safeguard Chinese personnel and other interests. Today, Pakistan's government is in an irreversible Chinese debt trap like many other African nations. On one hand Pakistan is indebted to China while on the other China has to protect its huge investments in Pakistan. Thus, both nations have no choice but to stand with each other.
In such a scenario, Chinese involvement, in a limited manner, in any major conflict between India and Pakistan will be a natural progression. The extent of participation may be debated but its likelihood is a given. The signs of China backing Pakistan all the way are there to see. The UNSC statement, after the Pahalgam incident, was watered down at China's instance in connivance with Pakistan. The UNSC called for cooperation from all members countries to all relevant authorities without mentioning The Resistance Front (TRF) at the insistence of Pakistan, currently a temporary member of the council. In contrast, the UNSC statement issued in March 2025 after the Baluchistan train attack in which 26 Pakistani hostages were killed, had clearly named Baluchistan Liberation Army and called the attack as heinous and cowardly.
China supports Pakistan's call for a fair probe into the incident and refuses to acknowledge it as an act sponsored by Pakistan. China's foreign minister spoke to Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister to convey his nation's support and to acknowledge Pakistan's resolute fight against terror. Their foreign ministry's statement reads, 'As Pakistan's ironclad friend and all-weather strategic cooperative partner, China fully understands Pakistan's legitimate security concerns and supports Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty and security interests.' This statement, perhaps, says it all. The Chinese spokesperson also said, 'As the neighbour of the two countries, China calls on the two sides to exercise restraint, solve differences through dialogue and jointly keep the region peaceful and stable.' No mention of terrorism, who perpetuated it or Indian lives lost in the attack. China has extended this support despite the admission by Pakistan's defence minister, Khwaja Asif, to Sky News recently that Pakistan has a history of supporting, training and funding terror groups for years.
In principle China can assist Pakistan by supplying them military hardware, satellite surveillance of Indian troop movements, ensuring a large part of Indian troops remain committed to the Indo-China border by suitable posturing at selected places, and garnering international support. While China will not commit its troops already stationed in Pakistan against India, they can certainly play a limited role in backing Pakistani troops in different ways. In the worst-case scenario, in an extended Indo-Pak conflict, China may escalate selectively along the Indo – China border to engage Indian troops in a limited combat to create additional problems for India. However, China is unlikely to enter into a major war with India directly in its endeavour to assist Pakistan. Any such war will also affect Chinese economy and development adversely. Any intense conflict between India and Pakistan, even if it is short, will take a heavy toll of Indian economy and that will please China to no end. So, it makes no sense for China to engage India directly.
In today's environment, after the fall of the elected government in Bangladesh, India will have to be vary of what Bangladesh can do in case of a war between India and Pakistan. Their recent bonhomie with Pakistan can only add trouble for India. It irks the fundamentalists that Sheikh Hasina, the deposed Prime Minister, has sought asylum in India. The refugee / illegal migration from Bangladesh and India's firm stance on the same is another vexing issue. India has already taken some stern measures against the country like not allowing export of their goods through Indian overland routes. As per reports, Bangladesh is already in talks with China to build an airfield in Lalmonirhat District, a site close to the critical Chicken's Neck area in India. So, Bangladesh can definitely create some irritants along its borders with India.
(Continued in Part 2…)
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