World's largest power project stirs anxieties
China has broken ground on what it says will be the world's largest hydropower project, a $170 billion feat capable of generating enough electricity each year to power Britain.
The scheme dwarfs the mighty Three Gorges Dam, currently the world's largest, and Chinese construction and engineering stocks surged after Premier Li Qiang unveiled it on the weekend.
For Beijing, the project promises clean power, jobs and a jolt of stimulus for a slowing economy. For neighbours downstream, it stirs old anxieties about water security: the Yarlung?Zangbo becomes the Brahmaputra in India and Bangladesh, a lifeline for millions.
What exactly did China approve?
The plan involves five dams along a 50?km stretch where the river plunges 2,000 metres off the Tibetan Plateau. First power is expected to be generated in the early?to?mid 2030s, but beyond that and the price tag, China has published little information about how it intends to build the project.
Why are neighbours concerned?
That lack of information is compounding fears about water security in India and Bangladesh, which rely on the Brahmaputra for irrigation, hydropower and drinking water.
The chief minister of Arunachal Pradesh, which borders China, said earlier this year that the dam could dry out 80% of the river passing through the Indian state while potentially inundating downstream areas such as neighbouring Assam state.
In addition to water, the dam will also mean less sediment flowing downstream, according to Michael Steckler, a professor at Columbia University. That sediment carries nutrients essential for agriculture on floodplains downstream.
India and China fought a border war in this region in the 1960s, and the lack of transparency from Beijing has helped fuel speculation it might use the dam to cut off water in another conflict, according to Sayanangshu Modak, an expert on the India-China water relationship at the University of Arizona.
"The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project is a matter within the scope of China's sovereign affairs," Beijing's foreign ministry said on Tuesday, adding the dam would provide clean energy and prevent flooding.
"China has also conducted necessary communication with downstream countries regarding hydrological information, flood control, and disaster mitigation cooperation related to the Yarlung Zangbo project," the ministry said.
India's foreign and water ministries did not respond to requests for comment.
India's take
But the impact of the dam on downstream flows has been overstated, in part because the bulk of the water that enters the Brahmaputra is from monsoon rainfall south of the Himalayas, and not from China, said Modak.
He added that China's plans are for a "run of the river" hydropower project, which means the water will flow normally along the usual course of the Brahmaputra.
India itself has proposed two dams on the Siang river, its name for the Yarlung Zangbo. One, an 11.5-gigawatt project in Arunachal Pradesh, will be India's largest if it goes ahead.
Those have been proposed, in part, to assert India's claims on the river and bolster its case should China ever seek to divert the water, Modak added.
"If India can show that it has been using the waters, then China cannot unilaterally divert," he said.
Controversy is common
Quarrels over dams and water security are not new. Pakistan has accused India of weaponising shared water supplies in the disputed Kashmir region after New Delhi suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty, which regulates water sharing between the neighbours.
In Egypt, a senior politician was once caught on camera proposing to bomb a controversial Nile river dam planned by Ethiopia during a long-running dispute over the project.
Earthquake, extreme weather risk
The dam will be built in an earthquake zone also prone to landslides, glacial?lake floods and storms. A spree of dam building in the area sparked concerns from experts about safety following a devastating earthquake in Tibet earlier this year.
A much smaller hydropower project on a nearby tributary has been limited to four?month construction windows because of engineering challenges in high altitudes and vicious winters.
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The writer is a retired major general and has an interest in International Relations and Political Sociology. He can be reached at tayyarinam@ and tweets @20_Inam Listen to article The US-China competition remains the 'defining issue' of international politics. My last piece titled the "Sino-US rivalry" was published in this space on January 11, 2024, where some relevant writings of the CNN-famed Fareed Zakaria and others were discussed. Given the comparative National Power Potential (NPP), the world seems to be drifting from unipolarity, ushered in after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990s; to the 'present state' of bipolarity (the US and China); and to the likely future scenario of multipolarity (China, Russia, EU, India and Brazil). First, a bipolar comparison. Conventional view is that China is 'already a US peer or near-peer, economically'. However, as I had pointed out, in the present state of competition, China still needs to do a lot of catching up, as the American NPP — especially its military strength, power of alliances and its cosmopolitan, multicultural and educated demography — far outpaces China, the 'hesitant regional power' that is trying to become a more assertive superpower. The US GDP is almost twice as large as China's and some analysts believe that the Chinese official figures are fudged, with Beijing manipulating key economic metrics, including GDP. China is heavily dependent upon fuel imports; has almost 20% housing vacancy rates and over $1 trillion in debt from its 48,000 km high-speed rail networks. The US by comparison leads in key high-technology sectors like the IT/software and services sector (80% of global profit shares); aerospace and defence (66.35%); drugs and biotechnology (60%) and semi-conductors/chips (58%, compared to China's miniscule 2.6% share). Then there are studies indicating that in a full-blown trade war, 'decoupling' China from the international economic system (sanctions) will disproportionately hurt Beijing, if China has not undertaken economic hardening like Russia. Moscow, in anticipation of the West Plus's reaction to Ukraine, had taken on years of pre-emptive economy-hardening steps to mitigate the ill-effects of sanctions. China's other handicaps include demographic weakness (overpopulation, effects of one-child policy, aging population); lack of alliances; its lighter presence in important global regions (Europe, the Middle East); its comparatively subdued power to influence others; China's lack of experience and exposure to act big, unlike the US, having the benefit of history and multicultural pluralism; and China's nagging legacy of trouble-spots (Spratly Islands, Tibet, Turkestan, human rights, etc). So far, there is no alternative to US power. But that does not mean China is and will not catch up. Second, the prospect of a Sino-US conflict. One had disagreed with the likelihood of conflict, as Beijing is likely to blink first, because the global status quo is protective of its core interests. Additionally, China is not a 'spoiler state' like Russia. President Xi abandoning his 'lone-wolf diplomacy' has often asked the US to lift sanctions, especially on technology transfers. And President Trump recently lifted ban on the sale of America's Nvidia-made semiconductors (especially the H20) to China. US's I-Phone is designed in California and assembled in China by a Taiwanese company, Foxconn. And in more curious case of inter-dependence, China monopolises supply of rare-earths, needed for US-manufactured semiconductors, to be used in China's high-end products, for export to the US/Western markets. There are more anti-conflict indicators, especially about the much-touted US-China conflict over Taiwan. There is a great deal of soul-searching in the American policy establishment about the cost-benefit of a war to defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion. The US rationale in defending Taiwan is to prevent China from gaining a new foothold to project power in East Asia and disrupt trade routes in the western Pacific, thus upsetting the western-dominated global economy. America's 'vital' interest, however, is to prevent China from regional hegemony in Asia. In reality, Taiwan does not confer any outsized military advantages to China, other than extending the range of its missiles, AD assets and surveillance systems by a couple hundred 'unneeded' kilometres. Beijing can still target US regional assets in Guam, Japan and Philippines. China's under-sea gains would similarly be modest. In sum, Beijing's control of Taipei hardly overturns the regional military balance. Military logic and economic considerations, hence, do not warrant direct US involvement to defend Taiwan. Taiwan's TSMC still produces 90% of the world's most advanced chips. However, by 2032, the US company, Boston Consulting Group, will be producing 28% of the most advanced semiconductors. Likewise potential blockade of the narrow sea-lanes in East and South China seas by China marginally affects the global sea trade, as bypassing options exist through Indonesian and Philippine archipelago. Similarly, the notion that Chinese invasion undermines the US credibility is also geostrategically flawed, as fighting China over Taiwan unnecessarily binds US resources, needed elsewhere for the bigger objective of containing China. The US military prioritises developing the 'second island chain' of Guam, Marshal and Northern Mariana Islands, Micronesia and Palau for this purpose. In the US reckoning, Taiwan certainly matters, but not enough to justify war with China, as composite deterrence would likely work to dissuade China. And if push comes to shove, PLA will prevail in a conflict with Taipei with or without the US, the former scenario being more costly for the US Armed Forces. The suggestions that Taiwan should become a 'porcupine' in its denial-focused strategy against Chinese invasion is also not likely to work, as the island just does not spend enough on its defence, and ignores acquisition of anti-ship defence, naval mines, uncrewed weapons and drones. Taiwan can make the invasion slow, long and costly but not impossible, as its geography, low and dwindling materiel stockpiles in case of a Chinese naval blockade would ultimately tilt the operational balance in China's favour. So, no wonder, Washington officially supports 'One China' policy, respects China's redlines and there is much noise in Washington about 'competitive co-existence' with China. Third, alliances and economic integration. China remains one of the most important markets for EU especially Germany's export-driven economy. 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