The inside story on firms feasting on Scotland's nationalised trains

The Herald Scotland

20-07-2025

An astonishing 25% of every ticket sold in Scotland goes to private companies leasing 'rolling stock'.
Currently, ScotRail needs to replace 69 ageing trains. Abandoning the leasing system – similar to the much-derided PFI model – would save £362 million on the deal.
The railway union Aslef, supported by the work of Scottish academics, is calling on the Scottish Government to buy trains directly so rolling stock is owned by the state. To finance the purchase – rather than lease – of trains, trade unionists and academics are advocating for the use of 'green bonds'. This model is used to finance environmental projects, particularly infrastructure.
The government issues these bonds to raise capital from investors. Repayments are much cheaper than under the leasing model. Aslef says switching from the leasing model to buying trains directly would free up money to create 'a world-class railway system for Scotland'.
It believes it would lead to cheaper, more frequent, greener, cleaner and safer trains.The campaign to revolutionise how Scotland pays for its trains is being led by the head of Aslef in Scotland Kevin Lindsay and Jim Baxter, who represents Scotland on the union's executive committee. They are backed by Professor Andrew Cumbers and Grace Brown, economists from Glasgow University's Adam Smith Business School. The pair have written a report for Aslef entitled 'A Public Vision for Financing Scotland's Railways'.
Lindsay says that under the current system there are 'huge elements of privatisation', despite most members of the public considering the railways now fully nationalised. In addition to leasing trains from private companies, the [[ScotRail]] payroll system is outsourced to a firm owned by Abellio. Abellio was stripped of its [[ScotRail]] franchise under nationalisation due to concerns over its performance.'Every penny that leaves [[ScotRail]] is money that could be reinvested,' Lindsay says.
'It could go towards better trains, more staff and lower fares.'How did we get here? ScotRail was privatised in 1996. After a turbulent two decades under privatisation – with cuts, mismanagement and growing dissatisfaction with the service – it was taken back into public control in 2022.
Head of Aslef in Scotland Kevin Lindsay says buying trains directly would free up money
PROFITS
THE Dutch company Abellio was the last to run ScotRail before nationalisation. Abellio is owned by the Dutch government. According to Aslef, Abellio used profits extracted from Scotland to subsidise the much-praised, cheaper and more efficient Dutch railways.
'Large profits were taken out of Scotland,' says Lindsay, 'and went straight to the Dutch to improve their railways.'
After nationalisation, Scotland was left with what's called the 'rosco' model when it came to acquiring trains. Rosco stands for 'rolling stock leasing companies'. These firms lease passenger and freight trains to operating companies like the now nationalised ScotRail.
The three major roscos are Porterbrook, Eversholt and Angel Trains. Rail unions say roscos are 'guaranteed profits by governments at Westminster and Holyrood. The contracts are effectively PFI contracts'.
Roscos are basically middlemen, buying trains from manufacturers and then leasing them to ScotRail.
Aslef general secretary Mick Whelan says ScotRail must 'turn away from the flawed and profiteering roscos that are a legacy of the failed privatisation of our industry'. The rosco model 'sees profits extracted… often to shareholders who off-shore their profits in tax havens'.
Whelan calls it an 'economic catastrophe' and 'political and economic failure'. Shifting to green bonds, where the state buys rolling stock, would 'see the money lost in profits instead reinvested… in rail infrastructure, in staff and to help reduce ticket prices'.
Green bonds would help save 'hundreds of millions of pounds' if 'deployed by ScotRail and the Scottish Government. What is needed is political imagination'. Whelan wants to 'remove all forms of profiteering from Scotland's railways'.
Prof Cumbers, who carried out research on green bonds for Aslef, told The Herald on Sunday: 'You won't create a world-class railway system anywhere with the privatised model. This is not a particularly ideological point but more a pragmatic reflection.'
He added 'systems that are organised around private finance and private companies are ultimately driven by profit. That is what private companies do. That is not a value judgement but a statement of fact'.
Cumbers said it was 'sad' that politicians have been 'slow' to come to terms with this fact. He noted that in three very different economic systems – Germany, America and China – 'railway investment is always funded by public funds'.
'German governments actually have a constitutional requirement to fund railways and Amtrak rolling stock is usually financed by the US federal government,' he said.
A 'world-class railway' requires 'state-backed public investment, and green bonds would be a very good way of paying for his over time that would not take money from others parts of the public sector'.
Cumbers adds: 'Green bonds are very popular and in high demand'.
They are seen as 'low risk' for investors like pension funds which buy government bonds.
BORROWING
THAT means 'the price of green bonds is likely to be lower – cheaper for government as a means of borrowing' – than other government bonds. Cumbers says that UK-wide 'average yearly revenues going to rolling stock companies must be over £1 billion a year. This is a conservative figure but could even be far higher'.
The report for Aslef by Cumbers and Grace Brown notes that ScotRail is currently 'faced with the task of replacing its ageing rolling stock'.
The academics say using roscos to lease trains is 'unique to the UK'. Other countries 'use public finance for rolling stock'.
'There is no logical or rational economic reason for using private financing models for funding rolling stock,' the pair say. The decision is 'based on inherently political, not economic decisions… This is a system that suits no-one other than those who are extracting profits from the rail industry in Scotland'.
(Image: Jim Baxter is a member of ASLEF)
Switching to green bonds would achieve 'a minimum of 40% savings on investment… ensuring that more revenue is available for reinvesting in Scotland's transport infrastructure such as financing the reduction of fares'.
Green bonds, they note, are 'growing in popularity worldwide' when it comes to 'critical infrastructure', and 'ensuring revenues are used for environmental and social sustainability rather than private profit'.
The rosco model has led to 'lack of investment', 'profiteering', and 'diverting revenues to private financial interests that could be better used to tackle critical policy goals', such as the NHS.
It also 'limits the potential to encourage the shift from car use to trains' as it keeps fares high. Rosco firms have made 'exorbitant profits'. Revenues have been 'siphoned off… to service shareholder dividends', which could have been 'reinvested' in railways.
Governments can 'borrow more cheaply' than private firms meaning huge savings if the rosco model is abandoned. Green bonds 'work like traditional [government] bonds' but 'must be used' for projects that aid the environment.
'Countries such as Germany and the Netherlands have successfully utilised green bonds in transitioning their transport networks towards net zero,' Cumbers and Grace say.
By 2035, 65% of Scotland's 'ageing' trains need replaced. So now is the perfect time to consider shifting the economic model from roscos to state purchase using green bonds.
Switching from private capital leasing to green bonds purchasing would see the cost of replacing the 69 ageing trains in the Scottish fleet fall by up to £362m.
Prior to privatisation, the state bought trains. There was no leasing from private companies.
'Nowhere else in the world has a model where rolling stock is not owned by train operating companies [like ScotRail],' Cumbers and Grace point out.
DIVIDENDS
NORMAN Baker, former UK transport minister in the Tory-LibDem coalition, has said: 'The amount of money disappearing into profits and dividends at the roscos dwarfs what [train operating companies like ScotRail] have been making.'
It may astonish the public but when privatisation happened in the mid-1990s, the former publicly-owned UK rail fleet of 11,250 trains was transferred to three companies: Angel Trains, Eversholt Leasing and Porterbrook Leasing.Cumbers and Grace have studied these firms.
In January 1996, Angel Trains was sold to a consortium called GRS Holding Company Limited for £696m. Eversholt and Porterbrook were sold in management buyouts for £518m and £528m respectively.
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The history of Porterbrook is illustrative of the money to be made. After being sold for £528m in January 1996, six months later it was sold to Stagecoach for £826m. In 2000, it was sold to Abbey National for £1.4bn.
In 2008, it was sold to Deutsche Bank for £2bn. Then, in 2014, it was sold for an 'undisclosed sum' which involved a 30% stake from a Canadian pension fund, 30% from a German insurance firm, 30% from a UK-Israeli asset management firm and 10% from the French state-owned energy firm EDF. Angel and Eversholt's 'recent histories tell a similar tale of absorption by international banking and financial interests', and 'extraordinary levels of revenue extraction'.
Between 2012/18, 'the three companies paid out around £1.3bn in dividends to shareholders, with almost all profit being passed on in this way to overseas parent companies'. In 2022/23, rosco profits tripled from £122.3m to £409.7m.
In 2022, Angel Trains paid dividends of £124.6m, and Eversholt and Porterbrook paid £40.7m and £80m respectively to shareholders.
It's not possible, say Cumbers and Grace, 'to calculate the proportions of these sums that originate in Scotland. Indeed, that reveals another key problem with the rosco model: it is deeply opaque. '
In the absence of full transparency, it is impossible for the public to scrutinise how much value is being extracted from public infrastructures, or to hold companies accountable.'
Their report adds: 'The three main roscos make vast profits, dominate the market and extract considerable value, draining the public purse of vital resources.'
It has been estimated that rosco shareholder dividends between 2012/18 'would have financed the capital costs for 700 vehicles'. Roscos also 'use their market power to hike up rental rates over time due to the lack of other options'.Leasing rates for trains are lower at the outset but 'over time can rise by as much as 100%'. So the older trains get, the more the lease costs. Cumbers and Grace say this illustrates 'the lack of government regulation of roscos'.
ShareholdersASIDE from roscos, the government can also use the PFI model to lease trains 'on a contract basis from private consortia'.
This model also 'creams off profits and shareholder dividends'.An example is Caledonian Rail Leasing (CRL), created to lease trains to ScotRail in 2015. The company is 50% owned by one of the original roscos – Angel Trains – and 50% by the Japanese finance firm Sumitomo Mitsui.
Angel Trains is itself owned by the Jersey-based investment firm Willow Topco, recently bought by a Canadian pension fund.CRL has earned £15.4m in profit since 2019 and paid dividends of over £1.1m to shareholders in 2023/24.
Typical PFIs can run for more than 30 years and are 'likely to be 70% more expensive than if a government department had financed the project directly itself, primarily because governments can always borrow more cheaply than private entities'.
'Public borrowing to invest in essential infrastructure such as rolling stock is far cheaper than private options and means that more of the public's money is kept in the system rather than leaking out to pay the dividends of private investors.'
Cumbers and Grace add: 'The use of green bonds as a means of borrowing to fund a new generation of rolling stock is the sensible and pragmatic choice to ensure best value from public investments.'
Green bonds are already used in Britain. The UK Government raised £10.5bn in 2022/23 from 'green gilts and green savings bonds'.
Traditional bonds were used in 1948 when British Railways was nationalised. The Scottish government can borrow £450m annually. So using green bonds to buy trains 'should remain well within the Scottish Government's lending limits'.
Germany has issued tens of billions in green bonds since 2020, including for rail projects.
The Netherlands also uses billions in green bonds to invest in rail. Scotland should use 'green investment to disrupt the failing rosco model'.
'A Scottish green bond issue would, at a minimum, be 40% cheaper than procuring trains through the private market, based upon comparing the current cost of UK Treasury gilts with the average cost of borrowing for private capital.'
This is a 'conservative estimate'.
However, the popularity of green bonds with investors means that 'the yield prices could be lower than the average UK Treasury gilt'.
Aslef's Kevin Lindsay and Jim Baxter say estimates on the cost of just one train coach run from between £1m and £2.5m. Baxter says the average train is about 'three coaches' long.
'So there's a massive amount of investment required in Scotland.' Lindsay estimates that roscos take 'tens of millions' out of ScotRail annually. That 'runs into billions' since privatisation.
SECRET
MANY of the trains which need replaced came off the production line in the 1980s. Scotland's high-speed trains were 'built in 1974'.
Lindsay says the use of roscos 'is appalling'. As few members of the public know about the system, it's effectively 'the biggest secret and biggest rip-off taxpayers have suffered'.
Unlike the sale of other utilities under Margaret Thatcher's privatisation policies, the use of roscos 'has been done under the radar'.
He adds: 'The money that's taken out of the industry by roscos could easily have seen fares slashed.' He described the rosco model as 'noses in the trough', adding: 'The railways need to come back into full public ownership to stop the privateers taking money out of taxpayers' pocket at a time when the country has got very little money, whether that's here in Scotland or across the UK.
'The money that belongs to the taxpayer should be down to the taxpayer to spend, not down to dividends for shareholders.'
There are clear savings to be had under the green bond model, Lindsay and Baxter say.
'You're paying at a lesser rate than you would if you're using private finance.
'It just seems a very simple way for us to save money without doing anything overly complicated. It's a model that's been proven to work in other European countries.
'The Scottish Government is forever telling us we can do everything for ourselves. Well, here's a great opportunity to prove it. We can step up and take control.'
Aslef wants 'the UK Government to allow the Scottish Government to borrow more, which is again in line with Scottish Government policy. We're supportive of that'.
Although Aslef is understandably focused on railways, green bonds, the union says, could be used for schools, hospitals and housing.
'This can be done if there's the political will in Scotland,' Lindsay adds.
'It's cost-effective – that should jump out to anyone looking at this issue.'
Aslef has already lobbied the Scottish Government to switch to green bonds from the rosco model and other private finance models. 'If it's cheaper, why are we not doing it already?' Lindsay asks. Baxter adds that when the Scottish Parliament opened there was much talk of 'Scotland doing things differently'.
Green bonds provide the means to fund transport differently.
'We're going to continue to lobby the Scottish Government on this,' says Lindsay.
'It's not going away.'
Lindsay explains that Liverpool City Region Combined Authority dumped the rosco model and bought new trains for Merseyrail in-house for £460m.
ELECTION
'IT'S bizarre,' he adds, 'that a regional mayor in Merseyside can take bold steps like this, yet we have a nationalist government which isn't stepping up to do it for Scotland, and is keeping the old way which was introduced under the Conservatives.
'That cannot sit well with a government in Scotland which claims to be progressive.'
Aslef has already met with the Green Party to discuss green bonds, and will be meeting with the Scottish Labour Party.
'We have a Scottish Parliament election next year,' says Lindsay. 'I'm more than happy to campaign on this issue, and to let Scottish taxpayers know there's an alternative model out there which can bring significant savings to the travelling public.
'This has the potential to be a major political talking point. We'll campaign on this for whoever wants to listen. We're a broad church and we'll campaign with anyone.'
Failing to switch to green bonds means that the additional costs under the rosco model will still be on the books when 'our kids and grandkids' are taxpayers.
'That's a scary thought,' Lindsay adds. 'Surely we learned the lessons from the failed PFI deals? Surely we can start looking at things differently? We can't keep passing these debts on to future generations.'
If the state stepped in to buy trains, there could be boosts to Scottish manufacturing and job creation. Lindsay suggests that Scottish companies like Alexander Dennis, the bus maker which is moving to England, could be offered contracts to build the seats, windows and even the carriages of new trains. Creating local supply chains 'would put money back into Scotland's economy. This is an opportunity to create jobs', he says.
There are multiple different types of trains running across Scotland today provided by private companies. Aslef says that if the state bought its own trains then the fleet could be simplified and streamlined. That would make the cost of buying parts much cheaper.
'You wouldn't haven't to buy five different types of break block or whatever is needed,' Baxter adds.
'All of a sudden you could buy in bulk.'
A simpler fleet with fewer differing types of trains would also mean fewer delays as replacement rolling stock could be more easily moved around the network to fill in when there's cancellations.
Although Aslef assures the public that Scotland's railways are safe, new trains would make the network safer.
The older rolling stock, says Lindsay, like the high-speed trains 'don't meet modern crashworthiness'.
He adds: 'In the event that there's an incident, there's the potential that the cab disintegrates. That's what causes us concern.'
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CRASHES
THE last fatal crash in Scotland, near Carmont close to Stonehaven, involved a high-speed train.
Three were killed: the driver, conductor and a passenger. Lindsay says these trains don't meet pre-privatisation standards.
'We need to ensure that all trains meet modern crashworthiness.
'We can't have any more heritage rolling stock brought in.'
Rolling stock like the high-speed train involved in the Carmont crash are deemed heritage as they were made and introduced in the mid-1970s.
Lindsay adds: 'I want to stress that the railway is safe and trains are safe – it's just that we'd like them to be even safer.'
Using the green bond model will 'provide more modern trains which meet modern crashworthiness. HSTs just don't meet modern safety standards and I want to see a modern fleet'.
Aslef has been 'pushing' for the removal of HSTs 'since the crash at Carmont'.
Lindsay says that it is possible to have a 'world-class railway' if private finance is dumped. The current halfway house of ScotRail being nationalised but its trains being leased privately is 'an absolute nonsense of a system', Baxter adds.
[[ScotRail]]'s management structure is too complex for good decision-making, Lindsay claims. It is run by the government-owned Scottish Rail Holdings which answers to Transport Scotland, which in turn answers to the [[Transport]] Secretary, who answers to the Cabinet and the First Minister.
It would be better if [[ScotRail]] was run like Scottish Water, or Caledonian MacBrayne – 'standalone' arms-length companies, Aslef says.The complex management structure causes 'friction'.
However, Aslef insists it has a history of being 'able to resolve' complex problems with government.
The union hasn't been on strike with ScotRail since 2002. Its major industrial action only saw drivers refusing to work on days off.
Such actions have knock-on effects for passengers, with delays and cancellations, especially when coupled with the historic failure during privatisation to recruit enough staff.
Between privatisation in 1996 and 2002 there was effectively no recruitment.
The hangover from that still causes problems.
Lindsay says 'the long-term future of the railway is in jeopardy' as more than 600 train drivers out of a total of around 1,300 are at the age where they could 'retire today. That would decimate our industry'.
ScotRail is, however, attempting to recruit at speed. There's an agreement to increase the number of women drivers.
Aslef also supports reducing the age at which someone can become a driver to 18, so they have longer careers.
FARES
ASLEF wants to see power over Network Rail's operations in Scotland devolved to [[Holyrood]] so the government in Edinburgh has full control over the country's railway system.
Network Rail is responsible for track maintenance and the number of staff have been cut. That effects the efficiency of the railways.
Aslef also wants a 'Scottish Oyster card' so passengers can use any form of public transport anywhere in Scotland with an integrated ticket that would allow travel on, for example, Edinburgh's trams, Glasgow Subway and the nation's trains.
Delegates to COP26 'were given passes to use all forms of public transport', points out Lindsay, 'so why haven't we all got that'?
Train fares need to fall drastically, Aslef says. The UK has among the highest train fares in Europe. The costs in other countries 'simply aren't comparable'.
UK rail is 'notoriously expensive', Baxter adds.Glasgow to London tickets can run to over £300 whereas an equivalent journey in Denmark might cost around €40. It's often cheaper to fly. 'That's madness,' says Lindsay.
The 'crux of the problem' is that the rosco system means 'there's too many mouths to feed, so there's so much money getting taken out', says Baxter.
'That money has to come from somewhere, and tickets are obviously where it's coming from.
If ScotRail could 'stop leaking money to private companies' that would go a long way to help reducing fares.
'We're haemorrhaging money,' Lindsay says. He would ultimately like to see 'free' rail travel but accepts that is 'the utopian position'.
He finds it particularly galling that the cost of leasing trains rises the older the train gets. 'Can you imagine leasing a car that you've got to keep for years yet you pay more further down the line?'
Due to the way the leasing companies dominate the market there's little alternative for better deals.
'There's no equivalent to an Arnold Clark,' he adds.
In general, however, Scotland's railways have improved since nationalisation, Aslef says, but there's still a long way to go before the country is anywhere near a 'world-class service'.
'We're heading in the right direction,' says Lindsay. Baxter adds: 'But we could do better.' They give ScotRail a C+.Baxter says the 'travelling public' isn't looking for much. 'All they want is clean, safe, reliable and affordable trains. That's what we're pushing for.
'If we can get the government to buy into green bonds to buy new trains, rather than the completely discredited rosco model, then that's a massive step forward.'
A Scottish Government spokesperson said: 'We note and welcome Aslef's consideration of options to finance new trains in a publicly-owned railway.
'Public ownership has created the opportunity to deliver a railway which is run for the benefit of customers.
'The ability to plan for the long term brings with it the opportunity to modernise Scotland's railway and deliver passenger services which are efficient and sustainable, including modernising our train fleets.
'As with all long-term government action, spend in this area will be aligned with future Capital Spending Review and Infrastructure Investment Plan cycles.
'With ambitions of such magnitude regarding rail decarbonisation and fleet replacement, it is imperative that there is a relentless focus on cost and delivery efficiency, and maximising benefits.'