Gold Futures Hit Record High After Tariff Report
In early trade, futures rose 1% to $3,489.50 a troy ounce after reaching a peak of $3,534.20 earlier in the session.
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Yahoo
7 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Why this week's inflation report could be a hit to the economy no matter what the data says
The July inflation report could bring bad news for markets and the economy, no matter what the data shows. Investors are worried about too-hot inflation, which could take a rate cut off the table for September. On the other hand, a sharp drop in inflation could stoke concerns about an imminent slowdown. A key inflation report is looming, but it's possible that the July data paints a dismal picture of the economy whether it shows prices rose or fell. The July consumer price index report is expected to show that prices rose 0.2% last month and 2.8% year-over-year. The consensus expectations reflect a slightly hotter pace of inflation from the prior month, with consumer prices rising 2.7% year-over-year in June. Rising inflation is bad, but there's a chance that falling inflation is taken as a dire warning, as well, sources told Business Insider. Here's the logic: If inflation comes in too hot, that will undermine the possibility that the Fed could cut interest rates in September. The Fed resuming rate cuts is a major bullish catalyst that the market has been looking forward to for months. Hotter-than-expected inflation could also be construed as a sign that President Donald Trump's tariffs are finally starting to raise prices for consumers, which will stoke concerns about the health of the US economy. If inflation comes in too cold, that would compound some of the evidence that suggests the US economy is slowing, something that markets have been fretting over since the July nonfarm payrolls report showed weak job growth in the month, as well as sharp downward revisions for the prior two months. In either case, stocks could see a negative reaction following tomorrow's CPI print, Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, told Business Insider. Brown said he believed the larger downside risk to equities was if inflation came in too hot. If inflation comes in colder-than-expected, any following sell-off could be short-lasting, he said, as investors will quickly pivot their attention to Fed rate cuts on the horizon. "If we get a hot number, all of a sudden there's a lot of doubts around that September meeting, and we're suddenly looking at probably some headwinds to equities as we price in a slowdown in the economy," he told BI. Investors began to price in a September Fed rate cut with more certainty after the job market proved to be much weaker than expected in July. Markets see an 86.5% chance the Fed could cut rates a quarter-point in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool, down slightly from 90.4% last week. Justin Weidner, an economist at Deutsche Bank, also sees a potential negative reaction in the market no matter what CPI does tomorrow. If inflation comes in higher than expected, that makes the calculus for a Fed rate cut in September "more tricky," he told BI. But if prices are cooler than expected, it be enough cause for concern about the economy to prompt the Fed to issue a jumbo-sized 50 basis-point rate cut in September. "On the flip side, if it's kind of weaker, weaker than expected, you have some pullback," Weidner added of the potential reaction in stocks. Natalie Gallagher, principal economist at Board, also saw the risks to tomorrow's CPI report cutting both ways. Gallagher said she expected inflation to be 2.9%, hotter than consensus estimates. That will likely "mark the beginning of a longer trend," she said in a note, pointing to concerns that inflation could begin to lift off as tariffs work their way through the economy. "The real surprise would be if these pressures don't show - that would suggest demand is softening to a point that businesses can't raise prices, which is a troubling signal for US growth," she said. The outlook for Fed rate cuts will largely depend on the trajectory of inflation in the coming months, Brown said. Markets will also be paying close attention to Fed Chair Powell's comments, particularly at Jackson Hole, where the central bank hosts its annual summer symposium. There's a chance investors could be getting too complacent about expecting Fed rate cuts, Brown said, pointing to high odds markets see for a September cut. "I'm sort of 50-50 as to whether they pull the trigger in September," Brown said. "You'd say maybe they should, but then this is a Fed that has been bitten already relatively recently by inflation that ran away from them, frankly unexpectedly, and I think that memory is still going to be quite fresh in the mind." Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
7 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump extends tariff truce with China for 90 days
US President Donald Trump has ordered a 90-day extension to a US-China tariff truce, hours before it was due to expire – keeping higher duties on hold until November 10 as both sides continue trade talks. US President Donald Trump on Monday ordered a delay in the reimposition of higher tariffs on Chinese goods, hours before a trade truce between Washington and Beijing was due to expire. The White House's halt on steeper tariffs will be in place until November 10. "I have just signed an Executive Order that will extend the Tariff Suspension on China for another 90 days," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. While the United States and China slapped escalating tariffs on each other's products this year, bringing them to prohibitive triple-digit levels and snarling trade, both countries in May agreed to temporarily lower them. Their 90-day halt of steeper levies had been due to expire Tuesday. Around the same time that Trump confirmed the new extension, Chinese state media Xinhua news agency published a joint statement from US-China talks in Stockholm saying it would also extend its side of the truce. China will continue suspending its earlier tariff hike for 90 days starting August 12 while retaining a 10-percent duty, the report said. It would also "take or maintain necessary measures to suspend or remove non-tariff countermeasures against the United States, as agreed in the Geneva joint declaration," Xinhua reported. In the executive order posted Tuesday to its website, the White House reiterated its position that there are "large and persistent annual US goods trade deficits" and they "constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and economy of the United States." The order acknowledged Washington's ongoing discussions with Beijing "to address the lack of trade reciprocity in our economic relationship" and noted that China has continued to "take significant steps toward remedying" the US complaints. The 90-day extension means the truce is now set to expire just after midnight on November 10. - Trump-Xi summit? - "Beijing will be happy to keep the US-China negotiation going, but it is unlikely to make concessions," warned William Yang, an analyst at the International Crisis Group. He believes China sees its leverage over rare earth exports as a strong one, and that Beijing will likely use it to pressure Washington. US-China Business Council president Sean Stein said the current extension is "critical to give the two governments time to negotiate an agreement" providing much-needed certainty for companies to make plans. A trade deal, in turn, would "pave the way for a Trump-Xi summit this fall," said Asia Society Policy Institute senior vice president Wendy Cutler. But Cutler, herself a former US trade official, said: "This will be far from a walk in the park." Even as both countries reached a pact to cool tensions after high level talks in Geneva in May, the de-escalation has been shaky. Key economic officials convened in London in June as disagreements emerged and US officials accused their counterparts of violating the pact. Policymakers met again in Stockholm last month. Trump said in a social media post Sunday that he hoped China will "quickly quadruple its soybean orders," adding this would be a way to balance trade with the United States. As part of their May truce, fresh US tariffs targeting China were reduced to 30 percent and the corresponding level from China was cut to 10 percent. Separately, since returning to the presidency in January, Trump has slapped a 10-percent "reciprocal" tariff on almost all trading partners, aimed at addressing trade practices Washington deemed unfair. This surged to varying steeper levels last Thursday for dozens of economies. Major partners like the European Union, Japan and South Korea now see a 15-percent US duty on many products, while the level went as high as 41 percent for Syria. The "reciprocal" tariffs exclude sectors that have been targeted individually, such as steel and aluminum, and those that are being investigated like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. They are also expected to exclude gold, although a clarification by US customs authorities made public last week caused concern that certain gold bars might still be targeted. Trump said Monday that gold imports will not face additional tariffs, without providing further details. The president has taken separate aim at individual countries such as Brazil over the trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is accused of planning a coup, and India over its purchase of Russian oil. Canada and Mexico come under a different tariff regime. (AFP)
Bloomberg
9 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Daybreak Asia: Trump Extends China Trade Truce for 90 Days
US President Donald Trump extended a pause of sky-high tariffs on Chinese goods for another 90 days into early November, stabilizing trade ties between the world's two largest economies. Trump signed an order extending the truce through November 10th, deferring a tariff hike set for Tuesday. The de-escalation first took effect when the US and China agreed to reduce tit-for-tat tariff hikes and ease export restrictions on rare earth magnets and certain technologies. China said it too would extend its own suspension for a further 90 days. Meanwhile, Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices have agreed to pay 15% of their revenues from Chinese AI chip sales to the US government in an unusual, legally questionable deal that reflects the Trump administration's willingness to soften export controls in exchange for financial payouts. We discuss the day's developments with Derek Wallbank, Senior US Economy and Government Editor for Bloomberg News. Plus - Wall Street refrained from making big bets ahead of a key inflation report, with stocks losing steam after climbing to the brink of all-time highs. With the earnings season almost done, investors are turning to economic data for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will be able cut rates in September. Data due Tuesday is forecast to show US consumers saw a slight pickup in inflation as retailers gradually raised prices on a variety of items subject to higher import duties. We break down the potential market implications with Joy Yang, Head of Product Management at MarketVector Indexes.
