US markets today: Wall Street holds near record highs ahead of inflation data; Federal Reserve cautious on rate cuts as stagflation fears rise
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 77 points, or 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2% in early trading, according to AP.
Economists expect July's consumer price index to show a 2.8% year-on-year increase in living costs — slightly above June's 2.7% — with groceries, fuel and other essentials driving the uptick. Inflation, while well below the peak of over 9% three years ago, remains above the US Federal Reserve's 2% target.
President Donald Trump's tariff policies have added to concerns that price pressures could intensify.
The risk, analysts warn, is of 'stagflation' — where inflation stays high while economic growth slows. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday she sees the job market as the bigger worry and supports three interest rate cuts this year, citing a weaker-than-expected July jobs report. Trump has also publicly pressed the Fed to cut rates.
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However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers remain cautious, preferring to wait for more data on tariff impacts before deciding. Tuesday's CPI reading could influence the central bank's next move.
Strategists at Stifel, led by Thomas Carroll and Barry Bannister, cautioned that consumer spending is already slowing, potentially dragging the US economy close to a standstill in the second half of 2025.
'Rate cuts cannot save an overvalued S&P 500,' they warned, suggesting that only stronger corporate earnings can support current market valuations.
Among movers, Micron Technology surged 4.8% after raising quarterly profit and revenue guidance, citing higher memory chip prices. AMC Entertainment rose 7.5% after reporting better-than-expected spring results, with record ticket prices and higher food and beverage spending per customer.
On the downside, C3.ai plunged 31% after warning of an operating loss of up to $124.9 million for the first quarter, with CEO Thomas Siebel calling the sales performance 'completely unacceptable.'
Overseas, equity markets in Europe and Asia ended mixed on modest moves. In the US bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.27%.
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