Canada's governing Liberals were written off in this election, but Donald Trump has changed everything

Australia Broadcast Center

28-04-2025

Canada's election campaign didn't finish with the usual frantic pace. Party leaders scaled back events after
But it's doubtful any more rallies or speeches would have changed the the big story of this election: in just three months, Canada's governing Liberals have staged a comeback for the ages.
Just three-and-a-half months ago, the Liberals trailed the opposition Conservatives by 25 per cent in popular opinion polls. After nearly 10 years in power and led by the then increasingly unpopular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the Liberals seemed poised for certain defeat.
Then Donald Trump returned to the White House.
"Our heads are spinning here in Canada a little bit at how quick things have changed," said David Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data, a leading Canadian polling and market research company.
"It's pretty unique around the world to see an incumbent party that had been in office for 10 years, deeply unpopular, quickly replaced their leader, and within weeks, be in a place where they're now the favourites to win the election."
Most opinion polls now put the Liberals in front. The party has a new leader in former central banker Mark Carney, who succeeded Justin Trudeau after he resigned.
Carney succeeded longtime Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who announced his resignation in January.
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AP: Sean Kilpatrick
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Turning the political landscape on its head
When Mr Carney took office in March, the Liberals were already gaining quickly on Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. That turnaround started almost immediately after Mr Trump focused his attention on Canada.
The president threatened and then imposed steep tariffs on Canadian imports. And he has repeatedly suggested Canada would be better off as America's 51st state.
Despite suggestions that Mr Trump was simply 'trolling' Canada, the statements from the Oval Office have continued.
Last week he repeated "if [Canada] didn't have us … they would cease to exist …certainly as a country."
It seemed the more Mr Trump talked about Canada, the more the political landscape turned on its head.
"I don't recall another election that's been this surprising, and where all our expectations around how it would unfold were totally up-ended," said Jennifer Ditchburn from the IRPP think tank.
"
All of a sudden, Canadians were faced with a country that was supposed to be our closest friend and our neighbour, a country that we've gone to war with … all of a sudden, the president of that country is posing an existential threat to us as a country.
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US President Donald Trump first signed an executive order to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China in February.
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Reuters: Kevin Lamarque
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When it comes to picking a leader to stand up to Mr Trump, polls show voters prefer Mr Carney and the Liberals over Mr Poilievre and the Conservatives.
"[The Conservatives] were on track to winning the the largest majority government in Canadian history, and it all kind of crumbled in the in the matter of three, four months," said Kory Teneycke, a leading Conservative strategist.
Mr Teneycke recently managed the successful re-election campaign of the province of Ontario's Conservative premier, Doug Ford.
He believes the federal Conservative leader pivoted too late to the main theme of this election.
"I don't think Poilievre, who is the leader of the Conservative Party, even uttered the name of Donald Trump until eight days into the campaign, when it was by far the number one issue for the electorate," Mr Teneycke said.
Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke says polling suggests the incumbent government will be re-elected.
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Chris Young/Pool via Reuters
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'Not in the mood' for Trump or the US
Mr Teneycke believes the Conservative campaign has another problem: the style, the slogans, even the campaign theme "Canada First" — it reminds many voters of Donald Trump.
"All of that … made voters who were very focused on Trump very uncomfortable with Poilievre," he said.
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And he appeared a bit like the Canadian franchise owner of the MAGA movement and folks are really not in the mood for that.
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Comments from Mr Trump have sparked protests, and in response to devastating tariffs, American liquor has been pulled from the shelves, and many shoppers are buying Canadian, boycotting US imports.
Canadian liquor stores were quick to notify customers that they would not longer sell US products in response to the tariffs.
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Reuters: Ed White
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"If you talk to any Canadian and you walk down the street and you say, 'How are you feeling right now?' They probably tell you some mixture of betrayed, disappointed," Ms Ditchburn said.
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[People] are voting with their wallet against the Trump administration. And I think, having a thought about whether we can rely on the United States into the future. And it's an uncomfortable feeling.
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During this campaign, the Liberal gains didn't for the most part come from the Conservatives — their numbers held steady, with close to 40 per cent popular support in the polls. Mr Poilievre's criticism of the Liberals record on cost of living and housing still hits home.
Pierre Poilievre's campaign on cost of living has resonated with some Canadian voters.
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Reuters: Patrick Doyle
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But the focus on Trump and threats to Canada have been especially hard on so called third parties, such as the left of centre New Democrats and the Bloc Quebecois, which supports sovereignty for majority French speaking Quebec.
"Unlike in Australia … we have a first past the post system like the UK, and so third parties can matter quite a bit," said Mr Coletto.
"The biggest story in this election, beyond Donald Trump, has been the collapse of our third party ... the New Democrats.
"They've basically lost almost half of their support from the last election, and most of that has gone to the Liberals."
In the final days of the campaign, the polls appeared to tighten. But just months ago, few thought Mark Carney and the Liberals would even be competitive in this election. Let alone win.
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