
The AI talent war is the stuff of Steve Jobs' nightmares
Bruce:
Adobe is recruiting from Apple. They have hired one person already and are calling lots more. I have a standing policy with our recruiters that we don't recruit from Adobe. It seems you have a different policy. One of us must change our policy. Please let me know who. Steve
The email, along with many others, was submitted as evidence in a fascinating legal saga between the Department of Justice's antitrust unit, eight Silicon Valley companies and tens of thousands of tech employees who contended their earnings were repressed because of this collusion between company bosses. The companies — Apple, Adobe, Google, Intel, Intuit, eBay, Pixar and Lucasfilm — were ultimately forced to pay almost $500 million in settlements.
Thanks to his way with words, Jobs made himself the center of attention in what is surely one of the most caught-red-handed cases in the history of the U.S. tech industry. "I would be very pleased if your recruiting department would stop doing this,' he wrote to Google President Eric Schmidt in 2007, forwarding a cold email from Google's recruiting team. The recruiter was promptly fired.
In a separate incident, Google co-founder Sergey Brin told colleagues he had an "irate' call from Jobs who had threatened "war' if Google continued to try to recruit talent from Apple's web browser team. Offers to any more people should stop until they "get permission from Apple,' Brin instructed.
"There was no question they were colluding,' recalled economist Orley Ashenfelter, who testified as a witness in one of the civil cases. The legal fallout "sent a lesson to the human resources people in the various companies as to what is really appropriate to do. The question is: How long does that lesson last?'
Today, as some of the same players become locked in AI talent wars, we're starting to get a sense of what Jobs was so afraid of: A no-holds-barred fight for the best people, with employees holding all the cards. Top engineers are being courted like starting pitchers and star quarterbacks. Meta Platforms, for instance, is going after talent with "pay packages of up to $300 million over four years,' reported Wired, citing internal sources. (Meta disputes the framing.)
Whatever the size of the packages, the aggression is causing considerable anguish among company leaders. "I feel a visceral feeling right now, as if someone has broken into our home and stolen something,' wrote OpenAI's chief research officer, Mark Chen, in a memo obtained by Wired.
Few will have much sympathy for those at the top, I suppose, but other risks affect the rank-and-file. Such outlandish packages upend the compensation scales that give some semblance of fairness across a company, Ashenfelter said. Deedy Das, an AI investor with Menlo Ventures, told Business Insider there's a "sense of jealousy, envy and helplessness.'
But OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, while fiercely competitive, knows better than to try to do what Jobs did and stop companies from poaching his talent with quiet backroom deals. For one thing, the main players seem to have a growing contempt for one another.
And more significant, the option for talented AI engineers isn't limited to the largest companies. "Compared to the past,' points out Firas Sozan, CEO of tech recruitment group Harrison Clarke, "you don't need as many engineers to build a product. I think partly why Mark Zuckerberg is doing this is because an amazing engineer will just end up speaking to Intel Capital or Andreessen Horowitz and get term sheets to start their own company.'
Maybe, as a result of all this, we'll start to see a swing back to tech companies trying to convince workers that their role isn't a job but a calling that's greater than the number of commas in their paychecks. "Are we seeing the reasons for joining companies less about the compensation and more about what's actually being built? 100%,' Sozan says.
OpenAI's pitch to prevent its workers from leaving is to make the case that artificial general intelligence is the company's one and only true goal, and every part of its work is dedicated to achieving it, whereas those working on Meta's AI will spend at least some of their time thinking about how it can be used to better serve up shoddy viral videos to your grandmother. "Missionaries will beat mercenaries,' Altman said to staff in a memo.
Ilya Sutskever, an OpenAI co-founder who left to launch his own startup, Safe Superintelligence, reassured employees that he would not be entertaining efforts to sell the company amid rumors Meta tried to buy the entire team. "We have the compute, we have the team and we know what to do,' he wrote. "Together we will keep building safe superintelligence.' Nevertheless, he appears to have lost his CEO, Daniel Gross, to Meta.
The bring-your-whole-self talk went a little out of fashion in the post-pandemic layoff era — which for those outside AI teams is still happening — but I wouldn't be surprised to see a new variant. AI companies can't rely on the bully tactics employed by Jobs to keep employees from seeking better and more lucrative opportunities. Instead, leaders must convince employees that their AI work is the one that will matter most in the history books. Whether employees will buy it is another thing.
Dave Lee is Bloomberg Opinion's U.S. technology columnist.

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Japan Times
an hour ago
- Japan Times
Trump's transactional policies threaten global stability
The much-hyped Trump-Putin Alaska summit ended Friday without any agreement on Ukraine, despite both leaders hailing the 'progress' made. U.S. President Donald Trump conceded that no deal was reached, while Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted they had achieved an 'understanding.' The meeting, filled with pomp but lacking substance, only reinforced the perception of Trump's transactional style — warmth for adversaries but little clarity on outcomes. Just before the Alaska summit, Trump also claimed that Chinese President Xi Jinping had privately assured him that China would not invade Taiwan during his tenure, underscoring the unpredictable yet highly consequential impact of Trump's diplomacy on global security. These developments form the backdrop against which Trump's renewed tariff wars must be understood. His second term in the White House is dramatically reshaping the global geopolitical landscape, particularly in trade and strategic alignments. While some of these changes may be guided by his ambition to 'make America great again,' there is a growing sentiment — both within and outside the United States — that his actions are shaped as much by pay-to-play and personal motivations as by strategic vision. At the heart of these shifts lies a reinvigorated tariff war, which has not only targeted traditional rivals like China but also extended to strategic partners in the Indo-Pacific such as Japan and India. Trump's first presidential term (2017-20) was marked by a clear foreign-policy orientation that sought to contain the rise of China. Recognizing China as the principal challenger to U.S. supremacy, his administration sought to forge new alignments in the Indo-Pacific region, bolstering ties with countries such as Japan, Australia and India to act as counterweights. The strategic language was couched in terms of preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific, in which the U.S. portrayed itself as a Pacific power with legitimate stakes in the region's balance of power. Trump's second term, however, has seen a notable pivot: economic protectionism now overrides strategic consistency, and trade wars are being used not only as economic instruments but as tools of geopolitical leverage. As with Trump's steep tariffs on Japan , his more recent imposition of tariffs on India — America's largest democratic partner and a crucial player in the Indo-Pacific — is a startling manifestation of this shift. On Aug. 6, Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, raising the overall tariff to a staggering 50%. The rationale given was India's continued purchase of Russian oil, which the White House claimed represented an 'unusual and extraordinary threat' to American national security and foreign-policy interests. Yet upon even cursory examination, the Trump administration's reasoning is riddled with inconsistencies and double standards. Data shows that India accounted for only 13% of Russia's fossil-fuel revenue since the start of the Ukraine war, whereas the European Union — despite its anti-Russia rhetoric — contributed 23%. Still, the EU has been spared punitive tariffs, while India faces the economic brunt. This selective application of punitive measures suggests that the logic behind the tariffs is not solely grounded in principled foreign policy. It increasingly looks like an attempt to pressure countries that have limited leverage over the United States. Unlike China, which retaliated against earlier tariffs by banning the export of rare earth minerals — forcing Washington to reduce its tariff burden — India lacks such economic levers. With a vast population dependent on agriculture and dairy, New Delhi has long resisted opening up these sensitive sectors. Trump's insistence that India must make concessions in these very sectors adds further strain, as such demands are politically unacceptable in the Indian domestic context. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has responded with firmness, making it clear that India will not compromise the interests of its farmers, fishermen and dairy producers. Speaking at a public event, he acknowledged that India might have to pay a heavy price for its stance, but asserted his readiness to bear it, saying he will 'stand like a wall against any harmful policies' impacting Indian agriculture. This defiant posture marks a significant deterioration in U.S.-India trade ties, especially since Washington has simultaneously ruled out any further trade talks until the matter is resolved. For a relationship once touted as among the most consequential of the 21st century — not only in the Indo-Pacific region but globally — the fallout is deeply disconcerting. What adds to the complexity is Trump's seemingly contradictory behavior toward other global actors. His previous hostility toward NATO and its European members has, during his second term, given way to more transactional economic deals with both the EU and the U.K. With this change in tack he has managed to extract higher defense spending from them, fulfilling one of his longstanding demands. Meanwhile, Trump's initial soft posture toward Russia — based on the belief that he could persuade Putin to end the war — has hardened as that expectation failed to materialize. Yet, rather than directly penalizing Russia — and even taking steps to normalize relations with Putin at the Alaska summit — Trump has chosen to exert pressure on countries like India that maintain energy ties with Moscow. Even more puzzling is Trump's stance toward China. Despite earlier confrontations, he now appears to be exploring a potential trade deal with Beijing. There is speculation that he may even visit China, signaling a thaw that could have wide-ranging geopolitical ramifications. This approach stands in stark contrast to the harsh tariff measures directed at India and Brazil, both of which are founding BRICS members. Trump has also described BRICS (a 10-nation grouping of major emerging economies including Brazil, India, China and South Africa) as 'anti-American' and blamed the group for pushing de-dollarization — claims that are contested and oversimplified, but serve to justify further economic penalties. The net effect of these shifting positions is a growing perception that Trump's foreign and trade policies lack coherence and are driven more by short-term gains and political optics than by long-term strategic thinking. For India, this unpredictability represents a significant challenge. The country must now navigate an increasingly volatile external environment in which even its traditional partnerships can no longer be taken for granted. The economic consequences are already visible. According to Moody's, the new tariffs could slow India's GDP growth by 0.3% in fiscal year 2025–26, pulling it down from 6.3% to around 6%. Key sectors like electronics manufacturing may see reduced foreign investment due to the tariff gap compared to other Asia-Pacific economies. Investor sentiment is weakening, with foreign portfolio investors pulling out $2 billion in July and nearly $1 billion more in early August. Although the stock market has shown some resilience, the broader trend is one of caution and concern. At the same time, China's recent export restrictions on rare earth elements have highlighted the vulnerabilities in America's high-tech and defense manufacturing sectors. While the U.S. has invested in domestic production and diversification strategies, it remains years away from building a self-reliant supply chain. This gives China a significant bargaining chip in any future negotiation — one that India lacks. Trump's willingness to go easier on China while punishing India only reinforces the perception that his administration picks its targets based on expediency rather than principles. Another layer of complexity is Trump's sudden pivot toward Pakistan, a country he had once derided as duplicitous. His recent deal with Islamabad and the hosting of Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir at the White House are being viewed as part of a larger recalibration in the Indo-Pacific. Taken together with his softer posture toward China, this development raises serious questions about U.S. strategic priorities in the region and how India figures in the American calculus going forward. India, therefore, faces a geopolitical moment that demands both caution and clarity. As Trump's second tenure introduces a mix of unpredictability, pressure tactics, and transactional diplomacy, New Delhi must work to safeguard its long-term interests without compromising its sovereign decision-making. This will require not only diversifying its strategic partnerships but also strengthening domestic economic resilience in the face of external shocks. The tariff war may just be one front — but the battle for geopolitical stability is far from over. Anand Kumar is associate fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses in New Delhi.


Japan Times
an hour ago
- Japan Times
The AI building boom is bound to bust
The AI hyperscalers that are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on data centers have dropped a windfall into the laps of the manufacturers, construction firms, building-materials makers and energy companies that make the build-out possible. Companies like Caterpillar, GE Vernova, Siemens, Trane Technologies and Amphenol are grabbing a big chunk of that capital spending to the delight of their investors. For now, the boom has room to run. The introduction of artificial intelligence into the workplace and society will match the rollout of electricity and the internet, Morgan Stanley predicts, and it estimates that capital expenditure on AI infrastructure will reach $3 trillion through 2028. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, are leading the charge and startups including Anthropic and Elon Musk's xAI are also piling in. The digital gold rush won't last forever, though. Just how long this spending bonanza lasts will be key to knowing when to exit the stocks with the most exposure to the data center build-out, such as Vertiv and Amphenol. These are the companies that have soared the most and still have upside. For the manufacturing behemoths such as Caterpillar and Siemens, the explosion of AI investment is a strong tailwind that at some point will turn into a headwind. Right now, it's early innings in the AI infrastructure game, and it's unclear when the payoff from all this investment will kick in. Will these AI model builders overshoot on the infrastructure and pull back in a painful consolidation? Will AI demand find a growth groove with a curve pointing steadily north? Private-equity firms are jumping into the game, prowling for hidden gems that are posting eye-popping sales growth. Apollo Global Management's agreement to purchase a majority stake in Stream Data Centers, which builds, leases and operates data centers, is only the tip of a trend to follow the money. Blackstone got ahead of the demand surge when it bought QTS Realty Trust for about $10 billion in 2021. Brookfield Asset Management announced a strategy to focus investment on AI infrastructure in a letter to investors recently. You can bet that more firms are looking to cash in on this broad economic windfall. Amphenol, which makes specialty cables and fiber-optic connectors for data centers, is one of the strategic buyers that is on the hunt. Earlier this month, the company agreed to purchase the connectivity and cable solutions unit of CommScope for $10.5 billion. About 40% of the unit's sales come from its data center connectivity business. Investors applauded, pushing up the stock up almost immediately when the deal was announced Aug. 4. That only added to the two-year tear in which the stock has gained 150%, pushing Amphenol's market value above $130 billion. Vertiv is another data center supplier with products ranging from power controls to cooling solutions. Shares have jumped almost fourfold in the last two years as sales swelled on the strength of data-center demand. The big stock move is backed up with an operating profit increase of 36% in the first half of this year, which comes on top of 60% growth in the first six months of 2024. Other companies, including GE Vernova and Cummins, are riding the surge of energy demand from the rapid build-out of data centers. Electricity plants powered by natural gas will be constructed quickly for power-hungry data centers while the so-called hyperscalers turn to nuclear energy for a longer-term solution. Caterpillar, known for its earth-moving equipment, and Cummins, a maker of diesel engines, provide large generators for both data center backup and baseload power. Caterpillar said its power generation sales jumped 19% in the second quarter mostly because of data center demand. Air-conditioner makers including Trane and SPX Technologies are also getting a bump. SPX, whose stock price has gained 40% this year, has introduced a new cooling product for data centers that allows customers to choose if they prefer to conserve more water or energy. There is no winner-takes-all because the hyperscalers "typically try to avoid being sole sourced,' Gene Lowe, chief executive officer of SPX, said in an earnings conference call. Construction companies with experience building data centers, such as Sterling Infrastructure, are reaping the windfall. Sterling agreed to buy a Texas-based construction company to expand into new regions at the behest of customers. They want data centers built as quickly as possible to keep ahead in the race. "Cost is always critical to customers, but speed is the most important thing,' Joseph Cutillo, CEO of Sterling, said in an earnings conference call. The company's shares have surged this year. TopBuild, an installer of residential insulation, is looking to grab some of the data center business to offset weakness in the housing market. There are 324 data center projects under construction in the U.S. and 110 that are in the engineering stage, CEO Robert Buck said in an earnings conference call. The company is also tracking 2,000 projects that are in the planning stage. At a recent data center campus in Arizona, the company provided roofing services and insulation installation. "We definitely see an opportunity,' Buck said. It's unlikely that Microsoft, Meta and other companies investing in AI will maintain this level of spending indefinitely. At some point, they will slow down the spending and seek to make money. The boom will be big. Navigating the inevitable bust will be tricky. Thomas Black is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist writing about the industrial and transportation sectors.


Japan Today
14 hours ago
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Apple Watch gets revamped blood oxygen feature
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