Rising housing costs could be pricing people out of college in Wisconsin

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3 days ago

Education has long been one of the most direct paths to achieving the American Dream. It is how generations have climbed the ladder, by learning, earning degrees and opening doors to opportunity. But what happens when the ground beneath that ladder starts to shift?
In Wisconsin, the cost of housing has been climbing steadily over the past decade, outpacing incomes in many counties. At the same time, enrollment in colleges and technical schools has been falling. At first glance, these might seem like two separate problems. But our recent research at the Northwestern Mutual Data Science Institute suggests they are more connected than we think.
We studied data from 29 Wisconsin counties over 11 years, looking at how changes in housing prices relate to post-secondary enrollment. What we found was both troubling and revealing. When housing prices go up, enrollment often goes down, especially in places where economic opportunities are already limited. In fact, for every 1% increase in housing costs, overall enrollment dropped by about 0.36% the following year.
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Our data review covers the years 2012 to 2023 for the following counties: Ashland, Barron, Brown, Dane, Douglas, Dunn, Eau Claire, Fond Du Lac, Grant, Jefferson, Kenosha, La Crosse, Manitowoc, Marathon, Menominee, Milwaukee, Oneida, Outagamie, Ozaukee, Pierce, Portage, Racine, Rock, Sawyer, Sheboygan, Walworth, Waukesha, Winnebago and Wood. The higher education enrollment figures include public and private colleges in the 29 counties.
This trend is not just a statistical curiosity. It reflects real families making tough choices. When rent or mortgage payments take up more of the household budget, there is often less left for college tuition, transportation or even just the time to attend classes. In places with fewer local schools or higher unemployment, those trade-offs become even harder.
We also found something we did not expect: a gender gap in how students respond to rising housing prices. University enrollment among male students drops sharply as housing costs rise. For female students, the pattern is different. In some cases, female enrollment actually increases, perhaps because women see education as a long-term investment worth making, even in tough times. But when tuition and housing costs rise together, even that resilience begins to falter.
Technical colleges show a different picture. At first glance, they seem less affected by rising housing prices. But when we looked closer, we saw that in more urban counties, where housing costs tend to spike, male enrollment in technical colleges also drops. It is a reminder that even the most flexible or affordable education options are not immune to broader economic pressures.
Our findings echo broader national concerns. In 2019, Fannie Mae launched the Sustainable Communities Innovation Challenge, emphasizing that stable and affordable housing provides families with greater opportunities for educational and economic attainment. The connection is clear: when housing becomes unaffordable, families are forced to make trade-offs that affect not just where they live, but how they plan for the future.
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These findings raise important questions: Are we quietly pricing people out of education and pushing the American Dream further out of reach?
When housing costs rise faster than wages, it does not just strain family budgets. It shapes how people think about the future. If young people start to feel like homeownership and financial stability are out of reach, they may begin to wonder whether education is still worth the investment. And that could have serious consequences for Wisconsin's economy and workforce in the years to come.
Our hope is that these insights can help inform how we think about policy. Housing and education are often treated as separate issues, but our research suggests they are deeply intertwined. To make education more accessible, we also need to make housing more affordable. It is not just about buildings and classrooms, it is about building futures.
Joseph Ogunlade is an analyst and Student Scholar at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Pallav Routh is an Assistant Professor at UW-Milwaukee and Principal Investigator on this research, funded by the Northwestern Mutual Data Science Institute. Together, they study how housing affordability influences educational access and outcomes in Wisconsin.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Wisconsin housing costs mean less money for college, future | Opinion