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Yahoo
38 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Asian stocks waver, dollar frail as Trump's tariffs, US rate path weighs
By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Asian stocks slipped on Wednesday and the dollar languished near 3-1/2-year lows as investors weighed the prospect of U.S. interest rate cuts and the scramble for trade deals ahead of President Donald Trump's July 9 deadline for tariffs. Trump said he was not considering extending the July 9 deadline for countries to negotiate trade deals with the United States, and cast doubts again that an agreement could be reached with Japan, although he expects a deal with India. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.23% in early trading, inching away from the November 2021 top it touched last week. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.78%, dragged by tech stocks. Tech-heavy Taiwan stocks and South Korea's Kospi Index also fell after U.S. tech firms were hit hard following a strong rally in June. Data on Tuesday showed the U.S labour market remained resilient with a rise in job openings for May, sharpening the focus on the payrolls report due on Thursday as investors try to gauge when the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates next. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, under fire from Trump to cut rates immediately, reiterated that the U.S. central bank plans to "wait and learn more" about the impact of tariffs on inflation before lowering interest rates. Traders are pricing in 64 basis points of cuts this year from the Fed with the odds of a move in July at 21%. That maintained a bearish bias on the dollar. The euro last bought $1.1793, just below the three-and-half-year high it touched on Tuesday. The yen was steady at 143.52 per dollar. [FRX/] "Any disappointing economic data can prompt further dovish repricing of FOMC rate cuts and another round of USD selling," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "The 'One Big Beautiful Bill' Act (OBBBA) and trade developments also have the potential to further weaken the USD if they undermine investor confidence about the U.S. economy." TRUMP'S BILL Investor focus over the last few days has pivoted to the progress of Trump's massive tax-and-spending bill, which is expected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt. The legislation heads to the House of Representatives for possible final approval after U.S. Senate Republicans passed it by the narrowest of margins. The bill has stoked fiscal worries but the reaction was relatively muted after it passed the Senate. The benchmark U.S. 10-year yields were steady at 4.245% having touched a two-month low in the previous session. Aninda Mitra, head of Asia macro strategy at BNY Investment Institute, said the legislation "hard wires" a steady deterioration of the fiscal position and the debt trajectory of the U.S. government. "The near-term impact is mostly in the price, but the uncertainty factor could keep term premia elevated. We don't think long-term yields will fall back materially in the 6-12 month horizon." The fiscal worries, trade uncertainties and the U.S. rate path trajectory have all led investors to flee U.S. assets and look for alternatives. Investors worry that Trump's chaotic trade policies could hit U.S. economic growth. That has left the dollar unloved, with the greenback down over 10% for the year in its worst first half performance since the 1970s. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was at 96.649, near its lowest since March 2022. In commodities, spot gold eased to $3,332.19 per ounce, after surging 1% in the previous session. The yellow metal is up 27% this year on safe-haven flows. [GOL/]
Yahoo
42 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump tariffs live updates: Trump suggests he won't extend tariff pause, floats higher tariff level for Japan
On Tuesday, President Trump renewed threats that he may stick to his self-imposed July 9 deadline for making trade deals and issue new tariff levels to trading partners, forgoing another pause to "Liberation Day" duties. "No, I'm not thinking about the pause," Trump said aboard Air Force One when asked if he would extend the tariff pause, per Bloomberg. "I'll be writing letters to a lot of countries." The president's comments come after a Financial Times report Tuesday suggested that Trump's team is no longer aiming for big trade deals with many countries. Instead, they are trying to make smaller, quick agreements before July 9, when Trump plans to bring back his toughest tariffs. These mini deals could help countries avoid those harsh levies, but partners would still face existing tariffs while talks continue. Talks continue to take place, and Trump is still threatening new tariffs on key sectors like cars, steel, and aluminum — and on key trading partners like Japan. Trump stated that his team would force Japan to accept higher tariffs of "30%, 35% or whatever the number is that we determine." Notably, that proposal is higher than the 24% "Liberation Day" level and the current baseline 10% tariffs in place while the two sides negotiate. 'I'm not sure we're going to make a deal," Trump said Tuesday. "I doubt it with Japan. They're very tough. You have to understand, they're very spoiled." Top administration officials have been providing mixed signals on the malleability of the July 9 deadline while countries race to finalize talks. But on Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had warned that "recalcitrant" countries would face a return of steep "Liberation Day" tariffs. Meanwhile, the European Union has signaled it was willing to accept a 10% universal tariff on many of its exports but is seeking exemptions for pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft as part of a trade deal, Bloomberg reported. The EU is also seeking quotas and exemptions to lower duties on autos, steel, and aluminum, the report said. On the North American front, Canada scrapped its digital services tax on US technology companies, such as Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) late on Sunday. The White House said trade talks between the two countries had resumed after Trump threatened to cut off trade talks. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world. President Trump on Tuesday, amid days of renewed whiplash on the tariff front, suggested he wouldn't extend a July 9 deadline for higher tariffs to resume on trade partners. He also threatened a tariff level on goods from Japan that would be higher than those he levied on the country in April. From Bloomberg: Notably, that 30% or 35% would be a higher level than the 24% he had laid out as part of his "Liberation Day" duties. Bloomberg added that Trump "sounded more optimistic" about an agreement with India. Read more here. US manufacturing remained weak in June. New orders were low and input costs went up slightly. This shows Trump's tariffs on imports are still making it hard for businesses to plan. Reuters reports: Read more here. The European Union has hardened its stance in trade trade talks with US President Donald Trump and are insisting the US drops its tariffs on the EU immediately as part of any framework deal ahead of the July 9 deadline. Trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has been told he must take a tougher line on his trip to Washington this week as Brussels attempts to remove or at least cut Trump's levies in the long term. The FT reports: Read more here. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that tariffs are causing the central bank to take its time before cutting interest rates. Powell is speaking today about the Fed's policy stance at an ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal. When asked if the Fed would have cut interest rates by more by now if it weren't for higher tariffs, Powell stated, "I think that's right." "In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs," Powell continued. "Essentially, all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs." Powell noted that the US economy remains healthy overall but that he expects to see the effects of tariffs if they filter through the economic data in the coming months. In recent days, Powell has faced increased pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, including in the form of handwritten notes. "Ignore the tariffs for a second," Powell said of the economy. "Inflation is behaving pretty much exactly as we have expected and hoped that it would. We haven't seen effects much yet from tariffs, and we didn't expect to by now." Watch Powell speak live below: Perhaps the moral of this story really is — as Amex likes to say — "Don't leave home without it." Nowhere was this more true than for CEO Robert Keeley, who when faced with an $11,000 tariff bill decided to cash in 1.83 million American Express reward points to pay it. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. From President Trump's tariffs to the Federal Reserve rate cut saga, the US stock market has just completed a roller-coaster first half of the year. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up 5% year to date, rebounding from its April slump after Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs were announced. But what should investors watch for in the second half of 2025? Here's a look at six key questions facing US stock investors at the start of the second half. Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. It seems that President Trump will bag a second trade deal soon. India is currently on track to seal an interim trade agreement with the US as soon as next week, according to a report in the FT on Tuesday. The FT, who received exclusive information from people briefed on the talks, reported that an interim deal between the US and India would be a step closer to a comprehensive bilateral accord between Washington and New Delhi. It would also be the first with a major US trading partner. The FT reports: Read more here. President Trump's team has decided to focus on smaller trade deals instead of big, wide-ranging agreements, according to a report in the FT, who cited people familiar with the matter. The Trump administration is hoping these quick deals will stop the US from bringing back tough tariffs. Officials want to reach phased deals with countries that are most ready to talk before July 9. That is when Trump plans to reimpose harsh tariffs if no agreements are made. These smaller deals mean countries could avoid the worst tariffs for now. But they would still face some existing tariffs while talks on harder issues continue. Talks remain complicated and Trump is also thinking about new tariffs on key industries. This approach shows how he uses the threat of tariffs to push countries to agree to US demands. The European Union, looking to clinch a trade deal with the US before a July 9 deadline, is prepared to accept a "universal" tariff of 10% on goods exported to the US, according to a Bloomberg report Monday. But the bloc is seeking exemptions on key sectors, including pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft. From Bloomberg: Read more here. President Trump said on Monday afternoon he was willing to impose a higher tariff rate on Japan, saying the country refused to accept US rice exports. "To show people how spoiled Countries have become with respect to the United States of America, and I have great respect for Japan, they won't take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage," Trump posted on Truth Social. "In other words, we'll just be sending them a letter, and we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come." Trump's statement that he would send a letter to Japan outlining the new tariff rate comes a little more than a week before a July 9 deadline and after months of being locked in trade talks with Japanese leaders. Trump has threatened to send letters to trading partners should negotiations break down. During trade talks, Japan has sought an exemption from the Trump administration's 25% auto duties. Broad tariffs on Japanese goods were set to jump back up to 24% on July 9 if no deal is reached and the tariff pause is not extended. Read more here. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned "recalcitrant" countries that their tariff levels could soon snap back to "Liberation Day" levels, the latest sign of ambiguity in President Trump's firmness around a July 9 deadline. Via Reuters: Administration officials — and Trump himself — have sent mixed signals on whether he may look to extend that deadline. Trump on Sunday suggested he didn't think he'd "need to" extend it. Tariffs pressures have started to hit goods, with prices on products made in China sold on Amazon (AMZN) rising faster than overall inflation, according to 1,400 different items which were analysed by DataWeave and provided exclusively to Reuters. Reuters reports: Read more here. CNN reports: Read more here. The European Union is pushing back against the US and its criticism of the bloc's tech rules, which many feared may have been included as part of trade negotiations. Reuters reports: Read more here. There is a belief among economists that President Trump's tariffs will help boost inflation over the next few months. But so far, muted price increases have called that belief into question. This has helped to embolden Trump, causing divisions with the Fed. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. South Korea is looking for an extension to the July 9 tariff deadline as talks continue. The US has raised concerns over non-tariff barriers and broader defence. South Korea is not the only country looking to reach a deal with the US before the tariff deadline on July 9. "It seems some countries will reach a deal by July 8, some might be granted an extension to continue negotiations, while others will decide if they want to continue negotiating under tariffs or not," the South Korean official told a briefing. Here's how some of the other trading partners are managing the deadline. China The US and China reached a deal to resume rare earth exports in London this month, resolving delays in implementing the Geneva agreement, which was established in May. Both sides are keen to ease tensions before tariffs rise further on August 9, when broader duties could rise 50%. Canada Canada scrapped its planned digital services tax targeting US tech firms on Sunday in an attempt to revive stalled talks. President Trump threatened new tariffs within a week if no deal is reached. According to Reuters, talks aim for an agreement by July 21. EU EU negotiators are pushing to keep reciprocal tariffs below 10% but Washington is pursuing a 10% baseline rate on most goods. Talks continue as the EU faces a looming deadline of July 9. UK The US-UK trade deal was cemented at the G-7 Summit this month. The deal came into force this week, reducing levies on cars and aircraft parts but keeping 10% tariffs on exports. Steel and aluminium tariffs remain unresloved ahead of the July 9 deadline. Japan Japan is seeking exemption from US auto tariffs, which currently stand at 25%, while also facing a new 24% reciprocal tariff from July 9. Trump wants Japan to import more US energy to reduce its trade surplus. Mexico The US and Mexico are negotiating a quota deal to reduce Trump's 50% steel tariffs. An agreement may allow for lower import rates. As earning season approaches, Goldman Sachs (GS) said on Monday that US profit margins will be tested as investors await to see how President Trump's war has hurt companies. Goldman's David Kostin said Q2 earnings will show the immediate impact of tariffs, which have risen about 10% this year. Most costs will be passed on to consumers, but margins will suffer if firms absorb more than expected. Early results are mixed: General Mills (GIS) stock fell 5% last week due to a weak forecast and tariff warning, while Nike (NKE) rose 15% after announcing it will offset higher duties. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. President Trump on Tuesday, amid days of renewed whiplash on the tariff front, suggested he wouldn't extend a July 9 deadline for higher tariffs to resume on trade partners. He also threatened a tariff level on goods from Japan that would be higher than those he levied on the country in April. From Bloomberg: Notably, that 30% or 35% would be a higher level than the 24% he had laid out as part of his "Liberation Day" duties. Bloomberg added that Trump "sounded more optimistic" about an agreement with India. Read more here. US manufacturing remained weak in June. New orders were low and input costs went up slightly. This shows Trump's tariffs on imports are still making it hard for businesses to plan. Reuters reports: Read more here. The European Union has hardened its stance in trade trade talks with US President Donald Trump and are insisting the US drops its tariffs on the EU immediately as part of any framework deal ahead of the July 9 deadline. Trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has been told he must take a tougher line on his trip to Washington this week as Brussels attempts to remove or at least cut Trump's levies in the long term. The FT reports: Read more here. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that tariffs are causing the central bank to take its time before cutting interest rates. Powell is speaking today about the Fed's policy stance at an ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal. When asked if the Fed would have cut interest rates by more by now if it weren't for higher tariffs, Powell stated, "I think that's right." "In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs," Powell continued. "Essentially, all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs." Powell noted that the US economy remains healthy overall but that he expects to see the effects of tariffs if they filter through the economic data in the coming months. In recent days, Powell has faced increased pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, including in the form of handwritten notes. "Ignore the tariffs for a second," Powell said of the economy. "Inflation is behaving pretty much exactly as we have expected and hoped that it would. We haven't seen effects much yet from tariffs, and we didn't expect to by now." Watch Powell speak live below: Perhaps the moral of this story really is — as Amex likes to say — "Don't leave home without it." Nowhere was this more true than for CEO Robert Keeley, who when faced with an $11,000 tariff bill decided to cash in 1.83 million American Express reward points to pay it. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. From President Trump's tariffs to the Federal Reserve rate cut saga, the US stock market has just completed a roller-coaster first half of the year. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up 5% year to date, rebounding from its April slump after Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs were announced. But what should investors watch for in the second half of 2025? Here's a look at six key questions facing US stock investors at the start of the second half. Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. It seems that President Trump will bag a second trade deal soon. India is currently on track to seal an interim trade agreement with the US as soon as next week, according to a report in the FT on Tuesday. The FT, who received exclusive information from people briefed on the talks, reported that an interim deal between the US and India would be a step closer to a comprehensive bilateral accord between Washington and New Delhi. It would also be the first with a major US trading partner. The FT reports: Read more here. President Trump's team has decided to focus on smaller trade deals instead of big, wide-ranging agreements, according to a report in the FT, who cited people familiar with the matter. The Trump administration is hoping these quick deals will stop the US from bringing back tough tariffs. Officials want to reach phased deals with countries that are most ready to talk before July 9. That is when Trump plans to reimpose harsh tariffs if no agreements are made. These smaller deals mean countries could avoid the worst tariffs for now. But they would still face some existing tariffs while talks on harder issues continue. Talks remain complicated and Trump is also thinking about new tariffs on key industries. This approach shows how he uses the threat of tariffs to push countries to agree to US demands. The European Union, looking to clinch a trade deal with the US before a July 9 deadline, is prepared to accept a "universal" tariff of 10% on goods exported to the US, according to a Bloomberg report Monday. But the bloc is seeking exemptions on key sectors, including pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft. From Bloomberg: Read more here. President Trump said on Monday afternoon he was willing to impose a higher tariff rate on Japan, saying the country refused to accept US rice exports. "To show people how spoiled Countries have become with respect to the United States of America, and I have great respect for Japan, they won't take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage," Trump posted on Truth Social. "In other words, we'll just be sending them a letter, and we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come." Trump's statement that he would send a letter to Japan outlining the new tariff rate comes a little more than a week before a July 9 deadline and after months of being locked in trade talks with Japanese leaders. Trump has threatened to send letters to trading partners should negotiations break down. During trade talks, Japan has sought an exemption from the Trump administration's 25% auto duties. Broad tariffs on Japanese goods were set to jump back up to 24% on July 9 if no deal is reached and the tariff pause is not extended. Read more here. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned "recalcitrant" countries that their tariff levels could soon snap back to "Liberation Day" levels, the latest sign of ambiguity in President Trump's firmness around a July 9 deadline. Via Reuters: Administration officials — and Trump himself — have sent mixed signals on whether he may look to extend that deadline. Trump on Sunday suggested he didn't think he'd "need to" extend it. Tariffs pressures have started to hit goods, with prices on products made in China sold on Amazon (AMZN) rising faster than overall inflation, according to 1,400 different items which were analysed by DataWeave and provided exclusively to Reuters. Reuters reports: Read more here. CNN reports: Read more here. The European Union is pushing back against the US and its criticism of the bloc's tech rules, which many feared may have been included as part of trade negotiations. Reuters reports: Read more here. There is a belief among economists that President Trump's tariffs will help boost inflation over the next few months. But so far, muted price increases have called that belief into question. This has helped to embolden Trump, causing divisions with the Fed. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. South Korea is looking for an extension to the July 9 tariff deadline as talks continue. The US has raised concerns over non-tariff barriers and broader defence. South Korea is not the only country looking to reach a deal with the US before the tariff deadline on July 9. "It seems some countries will reach a deal by July 8, some might be granted an extension to continue negotiations, while others will decide if they want to continue negotiating under tariffs or not," the South Korean official told a briefing. Here's how some of the other trading partners are managing the deadline. China The US and China reached a deal to resume rare earth exports in London this month, resolving delays in implementing the Geneva agreement, which was established in May. Both sides are keen to ease tensions before tariffs rise further on August 9, when broader duties could rise 50%. Canada Canada scrapped its planned digital services tax targeting US tech firms on Sunday in an attempt to revive stalled talks. President Trump threatened new tariffs within a week if no deal is reached. According to Reuters, talks aim for an agreement by July 21. EU EU negotiators are pushing to keep reciprocal tariffs below 10% but Washington is pursuing a 10% baseline rate on most goods. Talks continue as the EU faces a looming deadline of July 9. UK The US-UK trade deal was cemented at the G-7 Summit this month. The deal came into force this week, reducing levies on cars and aircraft parts but keeping 10% tariffs on exports. Steel and aluminium tariffs remain unresloved ahead of the July 9 deadline. Japan Japan is seeking exemption from US auto tariffs, which currently stand at 25%, while also facing a new 24% reciprocal tariff from July 9. Trump wants Japan to import more US energy to reduce its trade surplus. Mexico The US and Mexico are negotiating a quota deal to reduce Trump's 50% steel tariffs. An agreement may allow for lower import rates. As earning season approaches, Goldman Sachs (GS) said on Monday that US profit margins will be tested as investors await to see how President Trump's war has hurt companies. Goldman's David Kostin said Q2 earnings will show the immediate impact of tariffs, which have risen about 10% this year. Most costs will be passed on to consumers, but margins will suffer if firms absorb more than expected. Early results are mixed: General Mills (GIS) stock fell 5% last week due to a weak forecast and tariff warning, while Nike (NKE) rose 15% after announcing it will offset higher duties. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
43 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Asian stocks waver, dollar frail as Trump's tariffs, US rate path weighs
By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Asian stocks slipped on Wednesday and the dollar languished near 3-1/2-year lows as investors weighed the prospect of U.S. interest rate cuts and the scramble for trade deals ahead of President Donald Trump's July 9 deadline for tariffs. Trump said he was not considering extending the July 9 deadline for countries to negotiate trade deals with the United States, and cast doubts again that an agreement could be reached with Japan, although he expects a deal with India. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.23% in early trading, inching away from the November 2021 top it touched last week. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.78%, dragged by tech stocks. Tech-heavy Taiwan stocks and South Korea's Kospi Index also fell after U.S. tech firms were hit hard following a strong rally in June. Data on Tuesday showed the U.S labour market remained resilient with a rise in job openings for May, sharpening the focus on the payrolls report due on Thursday as investors try to gauge when the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates next. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, under fire from Trump to cut rates immediately, reiterated that the U.S. central bank plans to "wait and learn more" about the impact of tariffs on inflation before lowering interest rates. Traders are pricing in 64 basis points of cuts this year from the Fed with the odds of a move in July at 21%. That maintained a bearish bias on the dollar. The euro last bought $1.1793, just below the three-and-half-year high it touched on Tuesday. The yen was steady at 143.52 per dollar. [FRX/] "Any disappointing economic data can prompt further dovish repricing of FOMC rate cuts and another round of USD selling," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "The 'One Big Beautiful Bill' Act (OBBBA) and trade developments also have the potential to further weaken the USD if they undermine investor confidence about the U.S. economy." TRUMP'S BILL Investor focus over the last few days has pivoted to the progress of Trump's massive tax-and-spending bill, which is expected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt. The legislation heads to the House of Representatives for possible final approval after U.S. Senate Republicans passed it by the narrowest of margins. The bill has stoked fiscal worries but the reaction was relatively muted after it passed the Senate. The benchmark U.S. 10-year yields were steady at 4.245% having touched a two-month low in the previous session. Aninda Mitra, head of Asia macro strategy at BNY Investment Institute, said the legislation "hard wires" a steady deterioration of the fiscal position and the debt trajectory of the U.S. government. "The near-term impact is mostly in the price, but the uncertainty factor could keep term premia elevated. We don't think long-term yields will fall back materially in the 6-12 month horizon." The fiscal worries, trade uncertainties and the U.S. rate path trajectory have all led investors to flee U.S. assets and look for alternatives. Investors worry that Trump's chaotic trade policies could hit U.S. economic growth. That has left the dollar unloved, with the greenback down over 10% for the year in its worst first half performance since the 1970s. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was at 96.649, near its lowest since March 2022. In commodities, spot gold eased to $3,332.19 per ounce, after surging 1% in the previous session. The yellow metal is up 27% this year on safe-haven flows. [GOL/]
