Here's How RTX Shocked the Market Today (Hint: It's Tariff Related)
There was nothing wrong with RTX's first-quarter earnings report released today, and the full-year sales and earnings guidance remained the same, with management continuing to expect organic sales growth of 4%-6%, adjusted EPS of $6.00-$6.15, and free cash flow (FCF) of $7 billion to $7.5 billion.
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However, the market was shocked by management's estimates for the potential impact of tariff actions. For context, RTX's adjusted operating profit was about $10.2 billion in 2024.
Tariff
Negative Impact on Operating Profit
Canada and Mexico tariffs
~$250 million
China/Tariffs from China
~$250 million
Global reciprocal
~$300 million
Steel and aluminum
~$50 million
Total
~$850 million
Data source: RTX presentations.
It gets worse. These estimates include mitigating actions management can take to alleviate the impact. Also, CFO Neil Mitchill told investors on the earnings call that "the cash flow impact would be a bit larger" due to delays in getting refunds on duties.
The news is obviously disappointing, but it's in the stock's price now and that $850 million arguably represents upside potential if there's a resolution to the trade conflict -- something all parties say they want -- an interesting situation that investors will need to continue to watch.
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Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends RTX. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Here's How RTX Shocked the Market Today (Hint: It's Tariff Related) was originally published by The Motley Fool
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The words 'may,' 'will,' 'seeks,' 'anticipates,' 'believes,' 'expects,' 'estimates,' 'projects,' 'plans,' 'intends,' 'should' and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, although not all forward-looking statements contain these identifying words. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside of the Company's control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the results contemplated by the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include (a) the anticipated benefits of the Company's election to terminate its status as a real estate investment trust, (b) whether the Company will be able to successfully acquire new assets or businesses, (c) the potential adverse effects of the geopolitical instability due to the ongoing military conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas, including related sanctions and other penalties imposed by the U.S. and European Union, and the related impact on the Company, the Company's tenants, and the global economy and financial markets, (d) inflationary conditions and higher interest rate environment, (e) economic uncertainties about the ultimate impact of tariffs imposed by, or imposed on, the United States and its trading relationships, (f) that any potential future acquisition or disposition is subject to market conditions and capital availability and may not be identified or completed on favorable terms, or at all, and (g) that we may not be able to continue to meet the New York Stock Exchange's ('NYSE') continued listing requirements and rules, and the NYSE may delist the Company's common stock, which could negatively affect the Company, the price of the Company's common stock and shareholders' ability to sell the Company's common stock, as well as those risks and uncertainties set forth in the Risk Factors section of the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, filed on March 19, 2025 with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission ('SEC') and all other filings with the SEC after that date, including but not limited to the subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and Current Reports on Form 8-K, as such risks, uncertainties and other important factors may be updated from time to time in the Company's subsequent report. Further, forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes to future operating results, unless required to do so by law. American Strategic Investment Co. Consolidated Statements of Operations (Unaudited) (In thousands, except share and per share data) Three Months Ended June 30, 2025 2024 Revenue from tenants $ 12,222 $ 15,754 Operating expenses: Asset and property management fees to related parties 1,682 1,927 Property operating 7,987 8,461 Impairments of real estate investments 30,558 84,724 Equity-based compensation 92 186 General and administrative 2,172 1,964 Depreciation and amortization 3,545 5,151 Total operating expenses 46,036 102,413 Operating loss (33,814 ) (86,659 ) Other income (expense): Interest expense (7,850 ) (5,201 ) Other income 4 9 Total other expense (7,846 ) (5,192 ) Net loss before income tax (41,660 ) (91,851 ) Income tax expense — — Net loss and Net loss attributable to common stockholders $ (41,660 ) $ (91,851 ) Net loss per share attributable to common stockholders — Basic and Diluted $ (16.39 ) $ (36.48 ) Weighted-average shares outstanding — Basic and Diluted 2,541,402 2,518,176 Expand Non-GAAP Financial Measures This release discusses the non-GAAP financial measures we use to evaluate our performance, including Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization ('EBITDA'), Adjusted Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization ('Adjusted EBITDA'), Net Operating Income ('NOI') and Cash Net Operating Income ('Cash NOI') and Cash Paid for Interest. A description of these non-GAAP measures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measure, which is net loss, is provided above. In December 2022 we announced that we changed our business strategy and terminated our election to be taxed as a REIT effective January 1, 2023, however, our business and operations have not materially changed in the second quarter of 2025. Therefore, we did not change any of the non-GAAP metrics that we have historically used to evaluate performance. Caution on Use of Non-GAAP Measures EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, NOI, Cash NOI and Cash Paid for Interest should not be construed to be more relevant or accurate than the current GAAP methodology in calculating net income or in its applicability in evaluating our operating performance. The method utilized to evaluate the value and performance of real estate under GAAP should be construed as a more relevant measure of operational performance and considered more prominently than the non-GAAP metrics. As a result, we believe that the use of these non-GAAP metrics, together with the required GAAP presentations, provide a more complete understanding of our performance, including relative to our peers and a more informed and appropriate basis on which to make decisions involving operating, financing, and investing activities. However, these non-GAAP metrics are not indicative of cash available to fund ongoing cash needs, including the ability to pay cash dividends. Investors are cautioned that these non-GAAP metrics should only be used to assess the sustainability of our operating performance excluding these activities, as they exclude certain costs that have a negative effect on our operating performance during the periods in which these costs are incurred. Adjusted Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization, Net Operating Income, Cash Net Operating Income and Cash Paid for Interest. We believe that EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA, which is defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization adjusted for (i) impairment charges, (ii) interest income or other income or expense, (iii) gains or losses on debt extinguishment, (iv) equity-based compensation expense, (v) acquisition and transaction costs, (vi) gains or losses from the sale of real estate investments and (vii) expenses paid with issuances of common stock in lieu of cash is an appropriate measure of our ability to incur and service debt. We consider EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA useful indicators of our performance. Because these metrics' calculations exclude such factors as depreciation and amortization of real estate assets, interest expense, and equity-based compensation (which can vary among owners of identical assets in similar conditions based on historical cost accounting and useful-life estimates), these metrics; presentations facilitate comparisons of operating performance between periods and between other companies that use these measures. Adjusted EBITDA should not be considered as an alternative to cash flows from operating activities, as a measure of our liquidity or as an alternative to net income as an indicator of our operating activities. Other companies may calculate Adjusted EBITDA differently and our calculation should not be compared to that of other companies. NOI is a non-GAAP financial measure used by us to evaluate the operating performance of our real estate. NOI is equal to total revenues, excluding contingent purchase price consideration, less property operating and maintenance expense. NOI excludes all other items of expense and income included in the financial statements in calculating net income (loss). We believe NOI provides useful and relevant information because it reflects only those income and expense items that are incurred at the property level and presents such items on an unleveraged basis. We use NOI to assess and compare property level performance and to make decisions concerning the operations of the properties. Further, we believe NOI is useful to investors as a performance measure because, when compared across periods, NOI reflects the impact on operations from trends in occupancy rates, rental rates, operating expenses and acquisition activity on an unleveraged basis, providing perspective not immediately apparent from net income (loss). NOI excludes certain items included in calculating net income (loss) in order to provide results that are more closely related to a property's results of operations. For example, interest expense is not necessarily linked to the operating performance of a real estate asset. In addition, depreciation and amortization, because of historical cost accounting and useful life estimates, may distort operating performance at the property level. NOI presented by us may not be comparable to NOI reported by other companies that define NOI differently. We believe that in order to facilitate a clear understanding of our operating results, NOI should be examined in conjunction with net income (loss) as presented in our consolidated financial statements. NOI should not be considered as an alternative to net income (loss) as an indication of our performance or to cash flows as a measure of our liquidity or our ability to pay dividends. Cash NOI, is a non-GAAP financial measure that is intended to reflect the performance of our properties. We define Cash NOI as NOI excluding amortization of above/below market lease intangibles and straight-line adjustments that are included in GAAP lease revenues. We believe that Cash NOI is a helpful measure that both investors and management can use to evaluate the current financial performance of our properties and it allows for comparison of our operating performance between periods and to other companies. Cash NOI should not be considered as an alternative to net income, as an indication of our financial performance, or to cash flows as a measure of liquidity or our ability to fund all needs. The method by which we calculate and present Cash NOI may not be directly comparable to the way other companies present Cash NOI. Cash Paid for Interest is calculated based on the interest expense less non-cash portion of interest expense and amortization of mortgage (discount) premium, net. Management believes that Cash Paid for Interest provides useful information to investors to assess our overall solvency and financial flexibility. Cash Paid for Interest should not be considered as an alternative to interest expense as determined in accordance with GAAP or any other GAAP financial measures and should only be considered together with and as a supplement to our financial information prepared in accordance with GAAP.
