Allegra Stratton: Can Starmer Be a Salesman and a Statesman?
After the German chancellor-in-waiting's decision to unleash a Hoover Dam of defense spending, the euro is on for its best weekly run since 2009 making it, according to our reporters, 'one of the most consequential weeks in years for European investors.'
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Yahoo
37 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Signs of Peace Progress in Ukraine Boosts the Euro and Weighs on the Dollar
The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.08%. The dollar is under pressure today from lower T-note yields. Also, signs of progress in peace talks over Ukraine are boosting EUR/USD at the expense of the dollar. Losses in the dollar are limited due to concern that last week's stronger-than-expected July CPI and PPI reports could keep the Fed from cutting interest rates at next month's FOMC meeting. Today's US housing news was mixed for the dollar. US Jul housing starts unexpectedly rose +5.2% m/m to a 5-month high of 1.428 million, stronger than expectations of a decline to 1.297 million. However, Jul building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -2.8% m/m to a 5-year low of 1.354 million, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m to 1.386 million. More News from Barchart Dollar Gains as Fed Rate Cut Chances Slip Dollar Supported by Higher T-Note Yields Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! The dollar garnered some support today after S&P Global Ratings affirmed its AA+ long-term rating and A-1+ short-term rating on US debt and said the US can maintain its credit strength despite the fiscal hit of its recent spending bill because tariff revenues will "generally offset weaker fiscal outcomes." The markets are awaiting the ongoing meeting between President Trump and European leaders on any progress toward ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. The outcome could have macroeconomic implications regarding tariffs and oil prices, and could, of course, have significant consequences for European security. The markets continue to adjust to the inflation outlook following Thursday's hawkish PPI report. Following the report, the markets erased any hopes of a -50 bp rate cut at the Fed's September meeting and pulled back expectations for a -25 bp rate cut to 84% area from 93% before the report. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 84% at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting and at 53% for a second -25 bp rate cut at the following meeting on October 28-29. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is up by +0.05%. The euro is moving slightly higher today on signs of progress in peace talks over Ukraine. US and European officials said they will immediately work on providing Ukraine with robust security guarantees to open a path for a meeting between Presidents Putin and Zelenskiy. Swaps are pricing in a 6% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is down by -0.17%. Higher Japanese government bond yields today have strengthened the yen's interest rate differentials and are boosting the yen after the 10-year JGB bond yields rose to a 3-week high of 1.604%. Also, lower T-note yields today are supportive of the yen. Gains in the yen are limited by concern that US tariff policies will harm the Japanese economy. December gold (GCZ25) today is up +0.40 (+0.01%), and September silver (SIU25) is down -0.129 (-0.34%). Precious metal prices today are mixed. Today's dollar weakness is bullish for metals prices. Also, lower T-note yields today are supportive of precious metals. Gold continues to have safe-haven support related to US tariffs and geopolitical risks, including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Fund buying of precious metals continues to support prices after gold holdings in ETFs rose to a 2-year high last Friday, and silver holdings in ETFs reached a 3-year high Monday. Gains in precious metals are limited today as signs of progress in peace talks over Ukraine have curbed some safe-haven demand for precious metals. US and European officials said they will immediately work on providing Ukraine with robust security guarantees to open a path for a meeting between Presidents Putin and Zelenskiy. Also, reduced chances for a Fed rate cut at next month's FOMC meeting are bearish for precious metals, following a bearish July PPI report last Thursday that knocked the chance of a Fed rate cut down to 84% from 93% before the report. Silver prices gave up an early advance and turned lower on demand concerns for industrial metals after US Jul building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell more than expected to a 5-year low. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Stocks Pressured by Weakness in Tech
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down by -0.31%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.20%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down by -1.03%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are down -0.34%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are down -1.06%. Stock indexes are mixed today, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a new all-time high and the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 1-week low. Weaknesses in chip makers and in the Magnificent Seven stocks today are weighing on the overall market. More News from Barchart Trade the Warren Buffett Rally in UnitedHealth Stock With This High-Reward, Low-Risk Options Strategy Apple Expects $1.1 Billion Tariff Hit in 4th Quarter After $800 Million Q3 Hit; CEO Tim Cook Warns 'Many Factors That Could Change' Cathie Wood Is Buying BLSH Stock After the Bullish IPO. Should You? Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! On the positive side, Home Depot recovered from early losses and is up more than +4% to lead the Dow Jones industrials to a new record high after it reported a +3% jump in July comparable same-store sales. Lowes and Target will report their earnings on Wednesday, and Walmart will report on Thursday. Lower bond yields today are supportive of stocks, with the 10-year T-note yield down -2 bp to 4.31%. US government debt garnered support today after S&P Global Ratings affirmed its AA+ long-term rating and A-1+ short-term rating on US debt and said the US can maintain its credit strength despite the fiscal hit of its recent spending bill because tariff revenues will "generally offset weaker fiscal outcomes." Today's US housing news was mixed. US Jul housing starts unexpectedly rose +5.2% m/m to a 5-month high of 1.428 million, stronger than expectations of a decline to 1.297 million. However, Jul building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -2.8% m/m to a 5-year low of 1.354 million, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m to 1.386 million. Diplomatic talks over the war in Ukraine continue to make headway. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said he came away with a commitment from President Trump late Monday to join security guarantees for any peace deal and reserve discussion on territorial swaps with Russia for later. The outcome of the talks could have macroeconomic implications regarding tariffs and oil prices, and could, of course, have significant consequences for European security. The focus of the markets this week will be on any new tariff news and signs of progress toward a Ukraine peace deal, with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and European leaders continuing their meeting with President Trump in Washington. On Wednesday, the minutes of the July 29-30 FOMC meeting will be released. On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to climb by +1,000 to 225,000 and the Aug Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey is expected to fall to 6.7 from 15.9 in July. Also, the Aug S&P manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 49.8. In addition, Jul existing home sales are expected to fall -0.3% m/m to 3.92 million. On Friday, Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook at the Federal Reserve's annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Regarding tariffs, President Trump widened steel and aluminum tariffs to include more than 400 consumer items that contain the metals, such as motorcycles, auto parts, furniture components, and tableware. The change went into effect on Monday and did not exclude goods already in transit. Last Friday, Mr. Trump said, "I'll be setting tariffs next week and the week after on steel and on, I would say chips – chips and semiconductors, we'll be setting sometime next week, week after." Mr. Trump last week said he planned a 100% tariff on semiconductors but would exempt companies that move chip manufacturing to the US. Mr. Trump also mentioned 200% or 300% tariffs on chips. In other recent tariff news, Mr. Trump last Tuesday extended the tariff truce with China for another 90 days until November. On August 6, Mr. Trump announced that he will double tariffs on US imports from India to 50% from the current 25% tariff, due to India's purchases of Russian oil. On August 5, Mr. Trump said that US tariffs on pharmaceutical imports would be announced "within the next week or so." According to Bloomberg Economics, the average US tariff will rise to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, up from 13.3% earlier, and significantly higher than the 2.3% in 2024 before the tariffs were announced. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 84% at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, down from 93% last Thursday. The markets are discounting the chances at 53% for a second -25 bp rate cut at the following meeting on October 28-29. Earnings reports indicate that S&P 500 earnings for Q2 are on track to rise +9.1% y/y, much better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y and the most in four years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. With over 92% of S&P 500 firms having reported Q2 earnings, about 82% of companies exceeded profit estimates. Overseas stock markets today are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a 4.75-month high and is up +0.92%. China's Shanghai Composite fell from a 10-year high and closed down -0.02%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 retreated from a new record high and closed down -0.38%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) today are up +6 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -2.5 bp to 4.308%. Sep T-notes are moving higher today after S&P Global Ratings said that higher revenues from tariffs will help soften the blow to the US's fiscal health from the president's tax cuts, enabling the country to maintain its AA+ long-term credit rating. The weakness in stocks today is also supporting safe-haven demand for T-notes. Gains in T-notes are limited due to concerns that last week's bearish US July CPI and PPI reports could keep the Fed from cutting interest rates at next month's FOMC meeting. European government bond yields today are moving lower. The 10-year German bund yield is down -1.4 bp to 2.749%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell from a 2.5-month high of 4.756% and is down by -2.2 bp to 4.716%. Swaps are discounting the chances at 6% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting. US Stock Movers The weakness in the Magnificent Seven stocks is a drag on the overall market. Nvidia (NVDA) and Meta Platforms (META) are down more than -2%. Also, Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA) are down more than -1%. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is down more than -4% to lead chipmakers lower after GF Securities downgraded the stock to hold from buy. Also, Marvell Technology (MRVL) is down more than -3%, and Broadcom (AVGO) and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) are down more than -2%. In addition, Qualcomm (QCOM) is down more than -1%. Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) is down more than -43% after a Phase 2 trial of its oral weight loss drug showed 28% of patients discontinued treatment over tolerability concerns. Fabrinet (FN) is down more than -12% after it said it expects to see a sequential dip in datacom segment revenue in its fiscal Q1, citing supply constraints for some critical components. Amer Sports (AS) is down more than -4% after forecasting Q3 adjusted operating margin of 12% to 13%, below the consensus of 13%. Medtronic Plc (MDT) is down more than -3% after reporting Q1 adjusted operating margin of 23.6%, weaker than the consensus of 23.7%. Vertiv Holdings (VRT) is down more than -3% after GLJ Research initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of sell and a price target of $112. Intel (INTC) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after SoftBank Group Corp agreed to buy $2 billion of the company's stock. Cybersecurity stocks are climbing today, led by a +4% jump in Palo Alto Networks (PANW) after it forecast 2026 revenue of $10.48 billion-$10.53 billion, stronger than the consensus of $10.44 billion. CyberArk Software Ltd (CYBR) is also up more than +4% on the news. Trucking companies are climbing today. JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) is up more than +4%, and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), Knight-Swift Transportations Holdings (KNX), and Schneider National (SNDR) are up more than +3%. In addition, CSX Corp (CSX) and FedEx (FDX) are up more than +2%. Home Depot (HD) recovered from an early decline and is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting that July comparable same-store sales rose more than +3%. Prologis (PLD) is up more than +4% after Mizuho Securities upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $118. Caterpillar (CAT) is up more than +1% after Evercore ISI upgraded the stock to outperform from in line with a price target of $476. Earnings Reports(8/19/2025) Amer Sports Inc (AS), Home Depot Inc/The (HD), Jack Henry & Associates Inc (JKHY), James Hardie Industries PLC (JHX), Keysight Technologies Inc (KEYS), Medtronic PLC (MDT), Toll Brothers Inc (TOL), Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Miami Herald
an hour ago
- Miami Herald
Never-ending summer is changing Mediterranean holidays
For a growing number of holidaymakers, the rational response to the intense heat, high prices and overcrowding that blight the Mediterranean in July and August is to visit in the spring or fall. After all, the weather is cooler, hotels are better value and the vibe is more relaxed. This so-called "shoulder season" travel is booming. The trend could help ameliorate overtourism while boosting the use of aircraft and accommodation during the normally fallow winter months. But this rebalancing won't happen without a coordinated industry effort to keep resorts open and highlight the attractions of off-peak travel. Oh, and more flexible school holidays would also help. Europe is once again anticipating an influx of wealthy American visitors this year, but if they're sensible, those unrestricted by the school calendar will delay their visit until the autumn. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Delta Air Lines Inc. has seen a "multi-year" "systematic shift" of U.S. demand for European trips from July and August into the shoulder periods "as consumers look to avoid peak crowds and summer heat," its president, Glen Hauenstein, told investors earlier this month. "The peak is getting less peaky and the shoulders are getting stronger," he said. While anti-tourist protests and sweltering weather in southern Europe haven't impacted UK budget carrier EasyJet Plc's peak summer bookings, it's benefiting from more demand in the shoulder season. The final quarter of the calendar year has historically been loss-making, but there's hope for generating profits in the future thanks in part to the elongation of summer into October, Chief Executive Officer Kenton Jarvis told analysts in May. Greek carrier Aegean Airlines SA has also seen its financial performance improve in the October to December period amid more travel to and from Athens and Thessaloniki, which it attributes in part to climate change and milder winter temperatures creating a "gradual smoothing" of demand, Chairman Eftichios Vassilakis said in March. Inbound travelers to Greece increased 24% year on year in November, according to the Bank of Greece, while monthly travel receipts jumped 45% to €618 million ($727 million). American visitors to Greece boosted their spending that month by 78% and accounted for almost one-fifth of the total. Europe's short-term rental market is also seeing more demand in the autumn, according to AirDNA, which tracks listings on Airbnb and Vrbo; nights booked jumped 18% year on year in October 2024 and were 31% higher than the total in October 2019. Holidaymakers are taking advantage of lower off-season rates to book more upscale properties, and peak summer now represents a smaller share of total annual demand in popular vacation destinations. Amid evacuations due to summer wildfires and the Acropolis having to close during periods of extreme heat, I'm not surprised several travel firms now report more bookings in September than during peak summer. Selling active holidays in July and August can be challenging, according to Ben Colbridge, product and commercial director for Exodus Adventure Travels, whose offerings include hiking, cycling and cultural trips. "Most people don't want to be doing that sort of thing if the temperatures are above 40C," he told me, and those who must travel in July and August are increasingly picking cooler, northern destinations such as Scandinavia. Exodus's main European travel period used to run from May until the middle of October, but it's seeing a "creep at the edges" extending the season from April through the end of October. "Going forward we will start to push into the beginning of November in southern Europe," he said, while acknowledging that airline capacity in the shoulder season remains a limiting factor. Indeed, this nascent shift will only succeed if the travel industry coordinates to make off-peak visits more available and appealing, while being sensitive to local residents' concerns that this will cause an increase in overall demand (rather than just redistributing guests from the summer peak). Convincing restaurants, transport services and attractions to remain open longer isn't easy either. Seasonal workers often depart, and what if visitors don't come? "Prioritizing staff retention through flexible scheduling, short-term contract extensions, or end-of-season incentives is key to maintaining service quality," notes the nonprofit European Travel Commission. Resorts also need to offer more than just a sun lounger in case the weather turns inclement - culture, nature, sporting and wellness offers are essential. For example, German travel giant Tui AG is trying to appeal to runners by sponsoring marathons on Rhodes, Majorca and Cyprus in the off-season (and offering shorter races for accompanying family members). It would help, too, if families could be more flexible in their travel dates. Schools in England traditionally have a six-week summer holiday, but some institutions are opting for a shorter hiatus. As well as easing child care pressures and the potential educational benefits (kids forget much of what they've learned after a long break), this would mean the October half-term could be extended to a fortnight instead of one week - as is already the norm in Germany. The German school holiday system - which is also staggered by region to lessen the bunching of vacation bookings - is no panacea, though. Flights during the autumn half-term are often extortionate, as this Berlin-based columnist can confirm. Yet after experiencing the delights of Sicily in late October - when the beach was comparatively empty and the sea still invitingly warm - I've decided "shoulder season" vacations are the way forward. Please don't tell everybody. ___________ Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers.
