Tornadoes and heat waves were hallmarks of last June. Are we in for a repeat of hot, volatile weather?

Boston Globe

28-05-2025

Another hot, volatile June?
This coming June will likely see a slight uptick in both heat and rainfall from the 30-year norm across Boston and the rest of Southern New England.
When it comes to New England as a whole, last June was pretty hot: The average daily high temperature was 76.8 degrees, well enough above the norm to make it the 5th warmest June on record (since record-keeping began in the late 1800s). It was the warmest since June 2021, which topped out at a 78-degree average. The 30-year average for the region is 73.6 degrees.
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Boston, MA - 6/30/2021: Luca Tizzano, 6, enjoys the water at the BCYF Mirabella Pool in the North End neighborhood in Boston, MA on June 30, 2021. The last day of the current heat wave will be fierce, with showers and thunderstorms developing Wednesday amid temperatures once again breaking into the 90s across the region, the National Weather Service said. (Craig F. Walker/Globe Staff
Craig F. Walker/Globe Staff
Boston saw a tie for the 7th warmest June on record last year, including a
The average daily high temperatures across New England during June. Last year was well above the average.
NOAA
We also see the ramp-up of severe thunderstorms during June. As the atmosphere continues to trend warmer, the high June sun angle amplifies the potential for severe thunderstorms by allowing for more water vapor to be stored in the atmosphere.
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If the parameters are right, the air can become very unstable. We saw this last June with
Related
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What's interesting at the start of this summer is that most of the atmospheric patterns across the globe are in or near neutral phases — neither El Niño or La Niña, the naturally occurring climate patterns that usually have major implications on the weather we see here.
With
Keep in mind that when our context clues for weather are near neutral, that keeps the door open for more variability in our weather patterns.
Temperatures
We've seen a more inland track of the jet stream over the last few months, which has brought a more southerly flow into the picture more times than not, and we'll likely see the same scenario throughout June.
Southern New England is forecast to see slightly elevated chances for above-average temperatures in June, with closer to an average June across the northern tier.
The last time similar ENSO neutral conditions were present entering meteorological summer was back in 2014. The average temperature for the month was about half a degree above the average for New England.
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Temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer than average across Southern New England during June.
Boston Globe
Precipitation
The other side of the coin, from a more interior storm track and variable jet stream, is a higher frequency of storms. We'll most likely continue to see a dynamic weather pattern throughout the month that will naturally boost rain chances across the region.
Why? With the jet stream more inland, that opens the door for a southerly flow that will draw moisture and humidity into the region to support rain. And during the start of summer, when the sun's angle is at its peak, the chance for more intense rainfall from prolonged surface heating is possible.
Compared to the same time when similar ENSO conditions were present in June of 2014, the region ended up seeing slightly above-average rainfall, and that's what we're expected to see this June.
All of New England is forecast to see slightly above average rainfall during the month of June.
Boston Globe
We have to remember that the jet stream has been very sporadic and we've seen both sides of the seesaw — streaks of very warm temperatures followed by crashing cool days.
The same goes for precipitation. If a storm draws in enough moisture off the Atlantic, New England can see a shot of 2 to 3 inches in just one day alone and can tip the scale to an above-average month.
Stay tuned!
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Ken Mahan can be reached at