Men's college basketball bubble watch: Ohio State in trouble; SEC hopefuls step up

New York Times

13-03-2025

Editor's note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men's & women's NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
Welcome, Bubble Watch fans, to the equivalent of staying up all night and cramming for a final exam! Teams with NCAA Tournament hopes have one last chance to leave a lasting impression — good or bad — with the selection committee, and early-week losers will have an incredibly long and stressful wait until Selection Sunday.
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The bubble action will be frequent and frenetic this week, so we'll be bringing you daily updates to the Bubble Watch all the way through Sunday morning. Who is making a case to get in? Who is really feeling the squeeze of the cutline? And who felt the painful pop of a bubble before Sunday even arrived?
We'll try to answer all of those questions here, exploring each team's changing prospects as the week progresses. Many power conference bubblers got their tournament runs underway on Wednesday, so we have some movement to examine.
The biggest result came at the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis, where Ohio State fell in the opening round to Iowa. The Buckeyes are in dire straits now with a 17-15 overall record. In the SEC, the push for a ridiculous NCAA-record 14 bids took a positive turn, as the most bubbly teams — Arkansas, Texas and Oklahoma — all picked up victories.
Even more action is coming on Thursday, including vital games in the ACC, Big East and SEC, and we will be back on Friday morning to sort through all the madness!
For a projection of the actual bracket, make sure to check out Joe Rexrode's latest Bracket Watch. And here are some ground rules for navigating the Bubble Watch below.
Up to Lock: None
Up to Should Be In: Arkansas
Up to In the Mix: None
Added to On the Fringe: None
Down to In the Mix: None
Down to On the Fringe: None
Dropped from On the Fringe: None
Earned automatic bid: Gonzaga
Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: North Carolina, SMU, Wake Forest
On the Fringe: None
North Carolina
Profile Strengths: Excellent nonconference strength of schedule, strong quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Gruesome 1-11 record vs. Q1, took a Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: UNC continues to smash inferior competition, quickly disposing of a young and exhausted Notre Dame squad 76-56 on Wednesday afternoon. Discussing the Tar Heels' resume feels like we're going in circles, though. Once again, UNC has to win through to a matchup with Duke in the semifinals, and after not getting the job done at the Dean Dome, the Heels would desperately need to take advantage of another chance to beat their hated rivals. Thursday's quarterfinal against Wake Forest feels like a quasi-elimination game.
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SMU
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, excellent road/neutral record.
Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1 wins, poor nonconference SOS.
Looking Ahead: The Mustangs wrecked Syracuse in the second half on Wednesday night to pass the warmup portion of their final evaluation. That gives SMU another chance at its first Q1 win of the season, as Clemson awaits in the quarterfinals. A win there may not be enough for a resume that sorely lacks heft, so the Ponies probably need a win over Louisville in the semifinals, too. Clemson controlled the entire first meeting in Dallas, but SMU does have a healthy Boopie Miller this time around.
Wake Forest
Profile Strengths: Solid resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only one win over a likely tournament team, two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: Wake Forest stayed (barely) alive by smashing Georgia Tech in the regular season finale in Winston-Salem. The Deacons have 20 wins, including two against Quad 1, and are 8-8 against the top two quadrants. If Steve Forbes' squad beats UNC in the ACC tournament quarterfinals and somehow topples Duke in the semifinals, it will likely go dancing. Losing to UNC, though, would all but end Wake's chances.
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Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech
Should Be In: Baylor, West Virginia
In the Mix: None
On the Fringe: Cincinnati, TCU
Baylor
What They Need: Baylor manhandled frigid-shooting Kansas State on Wednesday for its 19th win of the season. The Bears now face Texas Tech on Thursday evening, removing any possibility of a questionable loss to close the campaign. We will not quite adorn Baylor with a Lock label, but it would take some wild circumstances — a blowout loss to TTU, other big bubble wins, a couple of bid stealers — for the Bears to slide out of the field. Tremendous quality metrics could end up bumping them to a decent seed, as well.
West Virginia
What They Need: You had to make it interesting, didn't you, Mountaineers? West Virginia led Colorado for 30-plus minutes on Wednesday, but its offense sputtered late in a disappointing 67-60 loss to the Big 12's last-place team. Fortunately, the Buffaloes are in Quad 2 territory, so it is not a 'bad' loss on the resume, but it's a worrisome closing statement to the Mountaineers' at-large argument. Six Q1 wins and no bad losses will probably still be enough, but WVU will be nervously rooting against bid stealers until Sunday.
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Locks: Creighton, Marquette, St. John's, UConn
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Xavier
On the Fringe: None
Xavier
Profile Strengths: Zero bad losses, respectable metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Only one Q1 win.
Looking Ahead: It was not overly convincing, but Xavier got by Providence on Saturday, 76-68. That set the stage for what could amount to a win-and-in opportunity against Marquette on Thursday in the Big East tournament quarterfinals, and the Musketeers have already beaten the Golden Eagles in Milwaukee. UConn's elevation into the NET top 30 (the Huskies are at No. 31 as of Thursday morning) would hand Xavier a second Q1 win, but there is no guarantee it gets there. Despite a current seven-game winning streak, Sean Miller's squad probably comes up short for an at-large bid with a loss Thursday.
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Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Indiana, Ohio State
On the Fringe: Nebraska
Indiana
Profile Strengths: Zero losses outside Q1, very competitive resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Only a 4-12 record in Q1 games.
Looking Ahead: Mike Woodson's Hoosiers got a massive win against Ohio State in their regular season finale. Their ultra clean resume has just enough high-end heft (three Q1A wins) to offset having 12 losses (none of which are anywhere near 'bad' territory). They have no risk of a bad loss at the Big Ten tournament, either, opening with a Q1 game against Oregon, whom they nearly beat in Eugene last week. A win might even elevate the Hoosiers above the First Four, while a loss would make for a long wait until Selection Sunday.
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Ohio State
Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, multiple elite wins away from Columbus, great nonconference SOS, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Only two games over .500 overall, 9-15 record against Q1/Q2.
Looking Ahead: Oh, boy. Ohio State is in real trouble after dropping its Big Ten tournament opener to Iowa. Although that game in itself is no issue (just a Q2 defeat), it put the Buckeyes in the terrifying position of being just 17-15 overall, two games over .500. No team so close to neutral has ever received an at-large bid, meaning that Ohio State needs a mini-miracle to go dancing now. Based on the other strengths of this resume, we'll keep OSU in the mix, but some committee members may automatically eliminate the Buckeyes at this point.
Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Should Be In: Arkansas
In the Mix: Oklahoma, Texas
On the Fringe: None
Arkansas
What They Need: The Hogs flirted with disaster, allowing a 20-point lead over South Carolina to shrink all the way down to one late in the second half. Massive baskets from DJ Wagner and Trevon Brazile saved the day, though, and John Calipari's team can no longer pick up anything remotely resembling a bad loss. The Hogs move on to face Ole Miss on Thursday afternoon, and although a win there would seal the deal, Arkansas should be fine — though not quite comfortable — without it.
Oklahoma
Profile Strengths: Seven Q1 wins, competitive metrics, 11-11 vs. top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Conference record eyesore?
Looking Ahead: Oklahoma shot the lights out in the first half of a 81-75 win over Georgia on Wednesday night, burying 11 triples en route to a narrow lead at the break. The Sooners held on to beat Georgia, adding another neutral-site Q1 win (and a 20th overall win) to the Sooners' impressive resume. Porter Moser's team is looking good in every category that truly matters, but the committee could still pull the rug out from under the Sooners' feet if they decide 6-12 in the SEC is not good enough. If OU can take down Kentucky on Thursday night, it will assuredly be dancing.
Texas
Profile Strengths: Outstanding quality metrics, six Q1 wins, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor nonconference SOS, 9-14 record against top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: The Longhorns earned a desperately needed win against Vanderbilt in their SEC tournament opener on Wednesday. That was Texas' sixth Q1 victory, though its combined Q1/Q2 record is still a limiting factor, as are lagging resume metrics. Texas also did nothing of note in the nonconference slate, and a season-ending home loss to Oklahoma could be a harmful tiebreaker. The Longhorns need to keep winning. Next up: in-state rival Texas A&M.
Locks: Drake (auto-bid), Gonzaga (auto-bid), Memphis, New Mexico, Saint Mary's, Utah State
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Boise State, Colorado State, Dayton, San Diego State, VCU, UC Irvine, UC San Diego
On the Fringe: George Mason, North Texas, San Francisco
Boise State
Profile Strengths: Two key nonconference wins, solid predictive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, resume metrics still slightly low.
Looking Ahead: Boise State lost a critical home game to resurgent bubble rival Colorado State to close the regular season. That leaves the Broncos in a tenuous position, almost certainly needing a win (or, more likely, two) at the Mountain West tournament to earn a bid. Their opener: another swing game against a bubble foe in San Diego State. The Aztecs swept the Broncos during the regular season, so Leon Rice's team will be desperate for revenge.
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Colorado State
Profile Strengths: Strong 7-7 record against the top two quadrants, improving metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, very little of note in the nonconference.
Looking Ahead: Colorado State has done enough to warrant mention here, winning seven straight games to close the year. That included Friday's regular-season finale at Boise State, where the Rams secured their first Q1 win. It is likely too little, too late for CSU, but if they pick up two more key wins en route to a loss in the Mountain West tournament championship game, they could have a case.
Dayton
Profile Strengths: Strong nonconference SOS, 3-3 record vs. Q1.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor metrics all around, one Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Flyers are still a mega-long shot, but Friday night's win at VCU lifts them back onto the fringes of the discussion. Unfortunately, Dayton would not get another crack at VCU until the championship game; at that point, another victory would do a lot more than simply bolster the Flyers' at-large resume. It's tough to envision Dayton getting in just by adding wins over Saint Joseph's in the quarterfinals and George Mason in the semifinals, but I suppose crazier things have happened.
San Diego State
Profile Strengths: Elite win vs. Houston, 8-7 vs. top two quadrants, elite nonconference SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: Middling predictive metrics, one Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Aztecs bounced back from a loss at UNLV by dismantling a veteran Nevada squad, likely keeping them on the right side of the bubble at this juncture. A crucial matchup with Boise State awaits in the 4/5 matchup of the Mountain West tournament; SDSU is probably safe if it manages to win. A loss against the desperate Broncos, though, would leave SDSU in the committee's crosshairs.
VCU
Profile Strengths: Strong overall and road/neutral record, 6-5 against top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Almost no Q1 games at all, Q4 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Rams took a surprising home loss to Dayton to close the regular season, sending them right back into the thick of the bubble discussion. Fortunately, the Flyers have played themselves into Q2 loss territory. VCU is still the presumptive favorite in the A-10 tournament, but if the Rams do need an at-large bid, the conversation could be polarizing for a team that has not played a single Q1A game and has wobbly resume metrics already. I would not suggest losing in the quarterfinals of the A-10 tournament.
UC Irvine
Profile Strengths: Q1A win at Big West foe UCSD, 17-3 road/neutral record.
Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, limited opportunities to improve their stock.
Looking Ahead: The Anteaters smoked UC Davis on Thursday and dug deep to come back and beat UC Santa Barbara on Saturday night, narrowly keeping their at-large dreams alive. UC Irvine is currently only in consideration because of its resume metrics, but even those aren't quite good enough to get the Anteaters inside the cutline. A win over UC Riverside in the Big West tournament semifinals is unlikely to make a major difference.
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UC San Diego
Profile Strengths: Top-notch road win at Utah State, gaudy overall record, quickly improving metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Limited big win opportunities, one Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: With Drake locking up the Missouri Valley's automatic bid, UC San Diego is now set up to be the firebrand of the selection process. Eric Olen's squad could get to 29 wins with a Big West tournament semifinal victory, and there's a chance a neutral-site game against CSUN would sneak into Q2. Would that be enough if the Tritons lose in the title game to UC Irvine (nowhere near a bad loss)? Mid-major fans everywhere hope so, but in practice, the committee could end up defaulting to teams with more big wins. Here's hoping UCSD renders that conversation meaningless by simply earning the Big West's automatic bid.
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