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New York Times
16-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Men's college basketball bubble watch: All eyes on Memphis, VCU on Selection Sunday
Editor's note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men's & women's NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments. The countdown has finally hit zero! Selection Sunday has arrived, which means it is the day of reckoning for bubble squads across the country. Advertisement Saturday's games produced mixed results for the teams sweating it out. Colorado State's win over Boise State in the Mountain West title game means that Boise State is in the at-large pool, and a 24-win team that beat Clemson and Saint Mary's in nonconference play will warrant serious consideration as an at-large. The Rams, meanwhile, are playing as well as any team in the country, having won 10 consecutive games en route to the league's automatic bid. In the American and the Atlantic 10, chalk held, with Memphis and VCU both surviving their respective semifinal matchups. The Tigers are locked into a bid no matter what happens in the AAC title game, but VCU would merit serious bubble discussion if it falls to George Mason in the A-10 championship. That means the rest of the at-large candidates have major rooting interests on Sunday: Memphis and VCU. Against Memphis, UAB is hunting its second straight AAC tournament title, and the Blazers have the talent to push the Tigers to the limit. In the A-10 final, VCU is the better team on paper. The Rams beat George Mason by 16 in Richmond on Feb. 22, but the Patriots led at halftime of that contest, and their tremendous defense could make that matchup a toss-up. For the NCAA Tournament selection committee, Sunday is a nightmare. Both of those results could alter the composition of the field, so they will have to construct multiple contingency brackets before the selection show begins. That also might affect VCU's at-large candidacy: Would the committee simply reserve one spot for the winner of the A-10 for the sake of simplicity? After days and weeks of speculation, we will finally find out the answers. The bracket will be revealed, and bubble teams will greet their fate, whether it be good or bad. After that, March Madness truly begins. For a projection of the actual bracket, make sure to check out Joe Rexrode's latest Bracket Watch. And here are some ground rules for navigating the Bubble Watch below. Up to Lock: None Up to Should Be In: None Up to In the Mix: None Added to On the Fringe: None Down to In the Mix: None Down to On the Fringe: None Dropped from On the Fringe: None Earned automatic bid: Colorado State, UC San Diego Locks: Clemson, Duke (auto-bid), Louisville Should Be In: None In the Mix: North Carolina, Wake Forest On the Fringe: SMU Advertisement North Carolina Profile Strengths: Excellent nonconference strength of schedule, strong quality metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Gruesome 1-12 record vs. Q1, took a Q3 loss. Looking Ahead: In desperate need of a Q1 win, UNC looked thoroughly overmatched against a Cooper Flagg-less Duke for 25 minutes. Hubert Davis' Heels refused to roll over, though, and they rallied back from a 24-point deficit to cut the lead to one in the waning seconds. With a chance to tie the game, though, the Heels were whistled for a lane violation on a free throw, and the comeback effort fell short. UNC must now hope that a resume that features a 1-12 record against Q1 is enough. Will the Heels' name brand and solid metrics sway the committee? It feels unlikely given their terrible winning percentage against top competition, but crazier things have happened. Wake Forest Profile Strengths: Decent 8-9 record against the top two quadrants. Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only one win over a likely tournament team, two Q3 losses. Looking Ahead: The door slammed shut for Wake Forest on Thursday. The Demon Deacons successfully dragged UNC into a halfcourt slugfest, but they could not make the necessary plays late in a close loss against a fierce bubble rival. Wake's resume metric average now lies outside the top 50, so that is no longer a key strength on a resume that has little else to offer. Barring a wild pro-Demon Deacons faction on the NCAA selection committee, it is hard to picture Wake getting into the dance at this point. Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston (auto-bid), Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech Should Be In: Baylor In the Mix: West Virginia On the Fringe: Cincinnati, TCU Baylor What They Need: The Bears nearly completed a monumental comeback against Texas Tech on Thursday night, but they came up just short as VJ Edgecombe's buzzer-beating runner banked harmlessly off the rim. Baylor is now in the bubble mix, though the Bears' bona fides — sparkling quality metrics, solid resume metrics, five Q1 wins, 11-13 record against the top two quadrants — all point towards being in the field. The biggest risk is if the committee goes rogue and cites the version of Baylor without injured center Josh Ojianwuna (4-6 overall, no Q1 victories) is different enough not to warrant inclusion. I do not expect that to be the case. West Virginia Profile Strengths: Six Q1 wins, including four in Q1A, zero bad losses. Profile Weaknesses: Metrics are squarely in bubble land, 13 total losses. Looking Ahead: After careful reexamination, I am moving West Virginia back down a category. Their metrics are on par with the rest of the bubble, and the committee has the 'out' of devaluing a couple of the Mountaineers' early wins since Tucker DeVries played in them. Fortunately for WVU, the Big 12 tournament loss to Colorado was in Quad 2, so it is not a 'bad' loss on the resume, but it's a worrisome closing statement to the Mountaineers' at-large argument. Six Q1 wins and no bad losses may still be enough, but WVU will be nervously rooting against bid stealers until Sunday. Advertisement Locks: Creighton, Marquette, St. John's (auto-bid), UConn Should Be In: None In the Mix: Xavier On the Fringe: None Xavier Profile Strengths: Zero bad losses, respectable metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Only one Q1 win. Looking Ahead: Heartbreak at Madison Square Garden for Xavier. The Musketeers led Marquette for most of the first 35 minutes, including a 14-point cushion with 17 minutes left in the game. But they could not hold off the tenacious Golden Eagles, and despite 38 points from Ryan Conwell, Xavier missed out on a massive Q1 opportunity. Sean Miller's team is now at the mercy of the selection committee — and of the quadrant cutoffs. The Musketeers needed UConn to end in the top 30 to add a second Q1 win to their resume, but the Huskies are No. 32. They would also love for the committee to value that five of Xavier's eight Q2 wins are in the 'high Q2' area (home vs. NET 31-55, neutral vs. NET 51-75, road at NET 76-100). Xavier is as bubbly as it gets, and the wait until Sunday night will be excruciating. Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin Should Be In: None In the Mix: Indiana, Ohio State On the Fringe: Nebraska Indiana Profile Strengths: Zero losses outside Q1, very competitive resume metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Only a 4-13 record in Q1 games. Looking Ahead: The Hoosiers could not get over the hump against Oregon on Thursday afternoon and have been fretting over their fate all weekend. Indiana has beaten every opponent it should beat, and it played up a couple of crucial times. The ultra-high-end road win at Michigan State looms especially large as one of the best wins of anyone on the bubble. If I had to guess, this is a First Four squad, but a lot can still change between now and Sunday. Ohio State Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, multiple elite wins away from Columbus, great nonconference SOS, no bad losses. Profile Weaknesses: Only two games over .500 overall, 9-15 record against Q1/Q2. Looking Ahead: Ohio State is in real trouble after dropping its Big Ten tournament opener to Iowa. Although that game in itself is no issue (just a Q2 defeat), it put the Buckeyes in the terrifying position of being just 17-15 overall, two games over .500. No team so close to neutral has ever received an at-large bid, meaning that Ohio State needs a mini-miracle to go dancing now. Based on the other strengths of this resume, we'll keep OSU in the mix, but some committee members may automatically eliminate the Buckeyes at this point. Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt Should Be In: Arkansas In the Mix: Oklahoma, Texas On the Fringe: None Arkansas What They Need: Arkansas let Lock status slip away against Ole Miss on Thursday afternoon. With the score tied at 80, Trevon Brazile's go-ahead free throws with under 10 seconds remaining bricked off the iron, and the Rebels' Sean Pedulla drilled a 3 just before the buzzer to send Ole Miss onward. As a result, the Razorbacks will be tense until they see their name revealed on Selection Sunday. That is not a guarantee, but the Hogs' five Q1 wins and overall clean resume (zero bad losses) should get them to Dayton for the First Four, at the very least. Advertisement Oklahoma Profile Strengths: Seven Q1 wins, competitive metrics, 11-12 vs. top two quadrants. Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, conference record eyesore? Looking Ahead: The Sooners hope to never see Otega Oweh again. The former Sooner ripped his old team's heart out again late Thursday night, and Oklahoma took another gutwrenching one-point loss at the buzzer. The Sooners have clearly proven themselves at the highest level via seven Q1 wins, many of which were away from home. Porter Moser, Jeremiah Fears, and the rest of the squad have a long wait until Sunday night, but as long as the committee doesn't balk at a 6-12 conference record in a league with 12 or 13 other NCAA Tournament teams, this profile looks good enough to dance. Texas Profile Strengths: Seven Q1 wins, no bad losses, solid quality metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Poor nonconference SOS, 10-15 record against top two quadrants. Looking Ahead: Texas could not make it a trio of key wins in Nashville, falling to Tennessee on Friday. The Longhorns will now sit nervously in the lobby of the Bubble Hotel until Sunday evening. Texas' seven Q1 wins are tied for the most of anyone on the bubble, but their 15 total losses are also tied for the most. The Horns' awful nonconference strength of schedule could be the factor that keeps them out of the dance; the selection committee has frequently cited that number when justifying leaving teams out. Texas appears to be one of the closest teams to the cutline, in or out, with a divisive resume of clear strengths and weaknesses. Locks: Drake (auto-bid), Gonzaga (auto-bid), UC San Diego, (auto-bid), Memphis, New Mexico, Saint Mary's, Utah State Should Be In: None In the Mix: Boise State, Dayton, San Diego State, VCU, UC Irvine On the Fringe: George Mason, North Texas, San Francisco Boise State Profile Strengths: Two key nonconference wins, solid predictive metrics. Profile Weaknesses: One loss each in Q3 and Q4. Looking Ahead: The Broncos suffered a triple sweep against Colorado State on Saturday in the Mountain West championship game, dropping them into the at-large pool. Boise State's massive victories in the nonconference — at home against Clemson, at a neutral site over Saint Mary's — will give the committee plenty to think about, but a terrible Q4 loss to Boston College could offset some of that success. The Broncos are squarely on the bubble: Comparing them to Indiana, Texas, UNC, Xavier and others makes for a difficult decision. Leon Rice is hoping for his sixth NCAA Tournament bid as head coach, but Boise could fall short in a tight bubble squeeze. Dayton Profile Strengths: Strong nonconference SOS, 3-3 record vs. Q1. Profile Weaknesses: Poor metrics all around, 2-6 record vs. Q2, one Q3 loss. Looking Ahead: The Flyers' late push for an at-large bid likely ran out of gas on Friday with an overtime loss to Saint Joseph's. Dayton's metrics were already outside of typical at-large territory, and adding another loss before the A-10 title game appears to be too much to withstand, especially with a poor record in Q2 games. Flyers faithful can cling to desperate hope, but Dayton's name appearing in the bracket would be a shock. San Diego State Profile Strengths: Elite win vs. Houston, 8-8 vs. top two quadrants, elite nonconference SOS. Profile Weaknesses: Middling predictive metrics, one Q3 loss. Looking Ahead: The Aztecs fell to Boise State in their Mountain West tournament opener, managing a meager 52 points in a disappointing offensive effort. Not only did that add another loss to SDSU's ledger, but it also gave the bubble adversary Broncos an extra Q1 win. SDSU's neutral-site win over Houston remains a crown jewel, and SDSU did sweep Boise during the regular season. A neutral-site win over Creighton has aged well, too. But this is a truly nebulous case, and SDSU will join the chorus of teams ardently cheering against bid stealers on Sunday. VCU Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, 11-5 road/neutral record, 7-5 in Q1+Q2 games. Profile Weaknesses: Almost no Q1 games at all, Q4 loss. Looking Ahead: It got tight late, but VCU got the victory over Loyola to clinch a spot in the A-10 championship game. A loss to George Mason would create a major discussion. The Rams clearly fall short in the Q1 wins department, but they dominated a solid league and grade out as a clear at-large team via quality metrics. They will be a nuanced case for the committee, but they do control their own fate: Beat George Mason for a second time, and VCU will be dancing. Advertisement UC Irvine Profile Strengths: Q1A win at Big West foe UCSD, 18-3 road/neutral record. Profile Weaknesses: Three Q3 losses. Looking Ahead: In a much-anticipated Big West final, the Anteaters fell to UC San Diego, putting Russell Turner's team on the NCAA Tournament bubble. UC Irvine is lacking in some of the traditionally key bubble areas, only notching one Q1 win and taking three Q3 losses. However, the Anteaters' resume metrics are still in at-large range, and their 18 road/neutral wins are an NCAA single-season record. If the selection committee wants to set a standard for mid-majors, UC Irvine would be a worthy inclusion, emphasizing the importance of winning away from home. It remains unlikely, but UC Irvine could snag one of the final at-large bids. The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Photos: Chris Jones / Imagn Images; Mykal McEldowney / IndyStar / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
New York Times
15-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Men's college basketball bubble watch: On the eve of Selection Sunday, who has work left to do?
Editor's note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men's & women's NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments. The countdown to Selection Sunday continues, and the number of bubble teams still in action is slowly dwindling. Outside of Texas and the A-10, most of the action came from out west — and the Mountain West in particular is making a push for more bids. Advertisement Bubble fixture Boise State took down No. 1 seed New Mexico in the conference tournament semifinals, adding another key victory to the Broncos' resume. On the other half of the bracket, Colorado State wrecked Utah State for the second time in two weeks. That sets up a final between two teams that might need the automatic bid. Boise State would have a stronger at-large case with a loss, which means all other bubblers should be Broncos fans on Saturday night. The Mountain West is not the only bid stealer candidate, although no 2025 version of NC State has emerged from the power conferences. In the top five leagues, the highest seeds all won their games on Friday in the ACC, Big East and SEC, and the winners of minor upsets in the Big Ten and Big 12 — coming via Wisconsin and Arizona — are already headed towards high NCAA Tournament seeds. Instead, the focus turns to the American, the A-10 and the Big West, where potential thieves still remain. Memphis narrowly avoided a loss to Wichita State in the AAC quarterfinals on Friday, and the Tigers are every bubble team's favorite horse this weekend. If any other champion emerges in that league, the at-large pool will shrink. The A-10 and Big West are trickier. VCU (if it does not win the auto-bid) and the loser of Saturday night's final between UC San Diego and UC Irvine are true bubble candidates. Notably, this year's selection committee actually has a majority of representatives from mid-major schools/conferences. That may not matter in the end, but it does provide hope that VCU or a second Big West team could still sneak in without their respective league's automatic bid. For a projection of the actual bracket, make sure to check out Joe Rexrode's latest Bracket Watch. And here are some ground rules for navigating the Bubble Watch below. Up to Lock: None Up to Should Be In: None Up to In the Mix: None Added to On the Fringe: None Down to In the Mix: None Down to On the Fringe: None Dropped from On the Fringe: None Earned automatic bid: None Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville Should Be In: None In the Mix: North Carolina, Wake Forest On the Fringe: SMU Advertisement North Carolina Profile Strengths: Excellent nonconference strength of schedule, strong quality metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Gruesome 1-12 record vs. Q1, took a Q3 loss. Looking Ahead: In desperate need of a Q1 win, UNC looked thoroughly overmatched against a Cooper Flagg-less Duke for 25 minutes. Hubert Davis' Heels refused to roll over, though, and they rallied back from a 24-point deficit to cut the lead to one in the waning seconds. With a chance to tie the game, though, the Heels were whistled for a lane violation on a free throw, and the comeback effort fell short. UNC must now hope that a resume that features a 1-12 record in Quadrant 1 games is enough. Will the Heels' name brand and solid metrics sway the committee? It feels unlikely given their terrible winning percentage against top competition, but crazier things have happened. Wake Forest Profile Strengths: Decent 8-9 record against the top two quadrants. Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only one win over a likely tournament team, two Q3 losses. Looking Ahead: The door slammed shut for Wake Forest on Thursday. The Demon Deacons successfully dragged UNC into a half court slugfest, but they could not make the necessary plays late in a close loss against a fierce bubble rival. Wake's resume metric average now lies outside the top 50, so that is no no longer a key strength on a resume that has little else to offer. Barring a wild pro-Demon Deacons faction on the NCAA selection committee, it is hard to picture Wake getting into the dance at this point. GO DEEPER As UNC basketball awaits bubble fate, plan for needed change is underway Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech Should Be In: Baylor In the Mix: West Virginia On the Fringe: Cincinnati, TCU Baylor What They Need: The Bears nearly completed a monumental comeback against Texas Tech on Thursday night, but they came up just short as VJ Edgecombe's buzzer-beating runner banked harmlessly off the rim. Baylor is now in the bubble mix, though the Bears' bona fides — sparkling quality metrics, solid resume metrics, five Q1 wins, 11-13 record against the top two quadrants — all point towards being in the field. The biggest risk is if the committee goes rogue and cites the version of Baylor without injured center Josh Ojianwuna (4-6 overall, no Q1 victories) is different enough to not warrant inclusion. I do not expect that to be the case. West Virginia Profile Strengths: Six Q1 wins, including four in Q1A, zero bad losses. Profile Weaknesses: Metrics are squarely in bubble land, 13 total losses. Looking Ahead: After careful reexamination, I've moved West Virginia back down a category. Their metrics are on par with the rest of the bubble, and the committee has the 'out' of devaluing a couple of the Mountaineers' early wins since Tucker DeVries played in them before his season-ending upper-body injury. Fortunately for WVU, the Big 12 tournament loss to Colorado was in Quad 2, so it is not a 'bad' loss on the resume, but it's a worrisome closing statement to the Mountaineers' at-large argument. Six Q1 wins and no bad losses may still be enough, but WVU will be nervously rooting against bid stealers until Sunday. Advertisement Locks: Creighton, Marquette, St. John's, UConn Should Be In: None In the Mix: Xavier On the Fringe: None Xavier Profile Strengths: Zero bad losses, respectable metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Only one Q1 win. Looking Ahead: Heartbreak at Madison Square Garden for Xavier. The Musketeers led Marquette for most of the first 35 minutes, including a 14-point cushion with 17 minutes left in the game. But they could not hold off the tenacious Golden Eagles, and despite 38 points from Ryan Conwell, Xavier missed out on a massive Q1 opportunity. Sean Miller's team is now at the mercy of the selection committee — and of the quadrant cutoffs. The Musketeers need UConn to end in the top 30 (currently 32nd) to add a second Q1 win to their resume. They would also love for the committee to value that five of Xavier's eight Q2 wins are in the 'high Q2' area (home vs. NET 31-55, neutral vs. NET 51-75, road at NET 76-100). Xavier is as bubbly as it gets, and the wait until Sunday will be excruciating. Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin Should Be In: None In the Mix: Indiana, Ohio State On the Fringe: Nebraska Indiana Profile Strengths: Zero losses outside Q1, very competitive resume metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Only a 4-13 record in Q1 games. Looking Ahead: The wait is on for Indiana. The Hoosiers could not get over the hump against Oregon on Thursday afternoon, and they will now fret over their fate until the end of the weekend. Indiana has beaten every opponent it should beat, and it played up a couple of crucial times. The ultra high-end road win at Michigan State looms especially large as one of the best wins of anyone on the bubble. If I had to guess, this is a First Four squad, but a lot can still change between now and Sunday. Ohio State Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, multiple elite wins away from Columbus, great nonconference SOS, no bad losses. Profile Weaknesses: Only two games over .500 overall, 9-15 record against Q1/Q2. Looking Ahead: Oh, boy. Ohio State is in real trouble after dropping its Big Ten tournament opener to Iowa. Although that game in itself is no issue (just a Q2 defeat), it put the Buckeyes in the terrifying position of being just 17-15 overall, two games over .500. No team so close to neutral has ever received an at-large bid, meaning that Ohio State needs a mini-miracle to go dancing now. Based on the other strengths of this resume, we'll keep OSU in the mix, but some committee members may automatically eliminate the Buckeyes at this point. GO DEEPER Dochterman: Fran McCaffery didn't give Iowa fans enough reasons to care Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt Should Be In: Arkansas In the Mix: Oklahoma, Texas On the Fringe: None Arkansas What They Need: Arkansas let Lock status slip away against Ole Miss on Thursday afternoon. With the game tied at 80, Trevon Brazile's go-ahead free throws with under 10 seconds remaining both bricked off the iron, and the Rebels' Sean Pedulla drilled a 3 just before the buzzer to send Ole Miss onward to face Auburn. As a result, the Razorbacks will be tense until they see their name revealed on Selection Sunday. That is not a guarantee, but the Hogs' five Q1 wins and overall clean resume (zero bad losses) should get them to Dayton for the First Four, at the very least. Advertisement Oklahoma Profile Strengths: Seven Q1 wins, competitive metrics, 11-12 vs. top two quadrants. Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, conference record eyesore? Looking Ahead: The Sooners hope to never see Otega Oweh again. The former Sooner ripped his old team's heart out again late on Thursday night, and Oklahoma took another gut-wrenching one-point loss at the buzzer. The Sooners have clearly proven themselves at the highest level via seven Q1 wins, many of which were away from home. Porter Moser, Jeremiah Fears and the rest of the squad have a long wait until Selection Sunday, but as long as the committee doesn't balk at a 6-12 conference record in a league with 12 or 13 other NCAA Tournament teams, this profile looks good enough to dance. Texas Profile Strengths: Seven Q1 wins, no bad losses, solid quality metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Poor nonconference SOS, 10-15 record against top two quadrants. Looking Ahead: Texas could not make it a trio of key wins in Nashville, falling to Tennessee on Friday. The Longhorns will now sit nervously in the lobby of the Bubble Hotel until Sunday evening. Texas' seven Q1 wins are tied for the most of anyone on the bubble, but their 15 total losses are also tied for the most. The Horns' awful nonconference strength of schedule could be the factor that keeps them out of the dance; the selection committee has frequently cited that number when justifying leaving teams out. Texas appears to be one of the closest teams to the cutline, in or out, with a divisive resume of clear strengths and weaknesses. GO DEEPER Auburn and Chad Baker-Mazara are combustible, which means more than one thing Locks: Drake (auto-bid), Gonzaga (auto-bid), Memphis, New Mexico, Saint Mary's, Utah State Should Be In: None In the Mix: Boise State, Colorado State, Dayton, San Diego State, VCU, UC Irvine, UC San Diego On the Fringe: George Mason, North Texas, San Francisco Boise State Profile Strengths: Two key nonconference wins, solid predictive metrics. Profile Weaknesses: One loss each in Q3 and Q4. Looking Ahead: The Broncos got another massive victory against the field on Friday, knocking off Mountain West top seed New Mexico for the second time this season. That supplements the strong work the Broncos did in the nonconference against Clemson and Saint Mary's. Having a profile that is not built purely on Mountain West success is crucial. Boise State has now won 11 of its past 13, and a 12th win would guarantee an NCAA Tournament appearance via the Mountain West's auto-bid. Should the Broncos lose, though, they become one of the most bubbly squads in the country. Colorado State Profile Strengths: Strong 9-7 record against the top two quadrants, improving metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, very little of note in the nonconference. Looking Ahead: The Rams' late-season surge continued on Friday night. They blitzed Utah State 83-72, reprising their 27-point domination of the Aggies on March 1. Colorado State's resume is still a fringe case at this point, so taking a loss to Boise State in the title game would probably leave the Rams on the outside of the field. All of CSU's best work has been in the Mountain West, which is typically frowned upon by a committee that emphasizes nonconference performance. Niko Medved's team almost certainly still needs to win the automatic bid on Saturday night, but credit to the Rams for making this interesting. Dayton Profile Strengths: Strong nonconference SOS, 3-3 record vs. Q1. Profile Weaknesses: Poor metrics all around, 3-6 record vs. Q2, one Q3 loss. Looking Ahead: The Flyers' late push for an at-large bid likely ran out of gas on Friday with an overtime loss to Saint Joseph's. Dayton's metrics were already outside of typical at-large territory, and adding another loss before the A-10 title game appears to be too much to withstand, especially with a poor 2-6 record against Q2. Flyers faithful can cling to desperate hope before Sunday, but Dayton's name appearing in the bracket would be a shock. San Diego State Profile Strengths: Elite win vs. Houston, 8-8 vs. top two quadrants, elite nonconference SOS. Profile Weaknesses: Middling predictive metrics, one Q3 loss. Looking Ahead: The Aztecs fell to Boise State in their Mountain West tournament opener, managing a meager 52 points in a disappointing offensive effort. Not only did that add another loss to SDSU's ledger, but it also gave the bubble adversary Broncos an extra Q1 win. SDSU's neutral-site win over Houston remains a crown jewel, and SDSU did sweep Boise during the regular season. A neutral-site win over Creighton has aged well, too. But this is a truly nebulous case, and SDSU will join the chorus of teams ardently cheering against bid stealers over the next few days. Advertisement VCU Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, 11-5 road/neutral record, 7-5 against Q1+Q2. Profile Weaknesses: Almost no Q1 games at all, Q4 loss. Looking Ahead: VCU handled its business against St. Bonaventure on Friday and crept closer to the Atlantic 10 automatic bid. The Rams' at-large resume also received a slight boost, as the Bonnies are barely inside the NET top 100 as of this writing, making it a Q2 victory. That will not be the case in the semifinals; Loyola Chicago is just outside the top 100. VCU would be a lightning rod for discussion if it needs an at-large, and the Rams would only feel safe if they can win the A-10 tournament on Sunday. UC Irvine Profile Strengths: Q1A win at Big West foe UCSD, 18-3 road/neutral record. Profile Weaknesses: Three Q3 losses, limited opportunities to improve their stock. Looking Ahead: The Anteaters advanced to the Big West title game on Friday night, using a second half offensive explosion to defeat a feisty Cal Poly squad. They may not have a gaudy group of wins, but it is impossible for the committee to ignore a Division I-record 18 wins away from home. Re-read that: a Division I-record 18 wins away from home. A 4-2 record against the top two quadrants also stands out, and though this is not a conventional at-large profile, the selection committee could choose to reward a mid-major that won all over the country in the nonconference. If an at-large bid is needed after a loss to UC San Diego on Saturday, UC Irvine's resume is stronger than you might think. UC San Diego Profile Strengths: Q1A road win at Utah State, gaudy overall record, 16 wins away from home. Profile Weaknesses: Limited big win opportunities, two Q3 losses. Looking Ahead: The Tritons trailed UC Santa Barbara at halftime on Friday night, but they quickly put that in the past with a dominant second stanza. An 18-point semifinal win has UCSD on the precipice of its first NCAA Tournament bid, but if Eric Olen's team needs an at-large, it will be an extremely divisive case. The Tritons can end all discussion with a win on Saturday night, but if not, they will carry the banner for mid-major at-large hopes. The Q1A road win at Utah State should stand out, and 29 overall wins (16 away from home) backs up that impressive result. More to come here on Sunday morning, depending on the Big West title game's result. The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Top photos: Isaiah J. Downing, Matt Lunsford / Imagn Images)
New York Times
14-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Men's college basketball bubble watch: Boise State, UNC battle on; Xavier's wait begins
Editor's note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men's & women's NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments. Another day of chaos on the bubble leaves us with plenty to discuss. The SEC's climb towards a record-shattering 14 bids continued, with Texas toppling Texas A&M for a massive victory. North Carolina and Boise State won major head-to-head bubble clashes, while Xavier came agonizingly close to knocking off Marquette. Advertisement With Selection Sunday now a mere two days away, though, the question now starts to be about the selection committee's ability to process and value all of these new results. The long discussions in the committee room mean that nothing happens quickly. Will the 12-person group be able to sort through dozens of results every day and properly account for them in the bracket? Additionally, and somewhat related, we often overstate the overall impact of conference tournament games. The most famous instance of this was Texas A&M in 2022. The Aggies, seemingly near the bubble as they entered the SEC Tournament, rattled off three wins to make the championship game. That run seemed enough to earn them an at-large bid. Instead, the committee left Texas A&M on the outside looking in. Recency bias makes us want these games to matter immensely, but that is not always the case. It's easy to forget that each result is only one of 30-plus pieces of evidence a team presents the committee throughout the season. It may be a cliche, but it is an important truth. For these bubble teams, the season may feel like it comes down to a final test during Champ Week, but the sum total of their accomplishments will be the true measuring stick. For a projection of the actual bracket, make sure to check out Joe Rexrode's latest Bracket Watch. And here are some ground rules for navigating the Bubble Watch below. Up to Lock: None Up to Should Be In: None Up to In the Mix: None Added to On the Fringe: None Down to In the Mix: West Virginia Down to On the Fringe: SMU Dropped from On the Fringe: None Earned automatic bid: None Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville Should Be In: None In the Mix: North Carolina, Wake Forest On the Fringe: SMU North Carolina Profile Strengths: Excellent nonconference strength of schedule, strong quality metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Gruesome 1-11 record vs. Q1, took a Q3 loss. Looking Ahead: The Heels beat Wake Forest on Thursday to nab a massive head-to-head victory against Wake Forest in the ACC quarterfinals. A loss there might have nudged the Demon Deacons ahead of the Tar Heels in the at-large pecking order. Fortune smiled on UNC in the semifinals, as well. Hubert Davis and company get a third crack at Duke on Friday night in what might amount to a play-in game for the Heels' NCAA Tournament hopes, and National Player of the Year frontrunner Cooper Flagg is likely going to sit out after spraining his ankle on Thursday. If UNC cannot beat a Flagg-less Duke, it will be tough to make a case for a team that would then be 1-12 in Quadrant 1 games. Advertisement Wake Forest Profile Strengths: Decent 8-9 record in games in the top two quadrants. Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only one win over a likely tournament team, two Q3 losses. Looking Ahead: The door slammed shut for Wake Forest on Thursday. The Demon Deacons successfully dragged UNC into a halfcourt slugfest, but they could not make the necessary plays late in a close loss against a fierce bubble rival. Wake's resume metrics average now lies outside the top 50, so that is no longer a key strength on a resume that has little else to offer. Barring a wild pro-Demon Deacons faction on the NCAA selection committee, it is hard to picture Wake getting into the dance at this point. GO DEEPER Men's basketball Top 25: Duke's defense, Bama's offense and a blind resume test Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech Should Be In: Baylor In the Mix: West Virginia On the Fringe: Cincinnati, TCU Baylor What They Need: The Bears nearly completed a monumental comeback against Texas Tech on Thursday night, but they came up just short as VJ Edgecombe's buzzer-beating runner banked harmlessly off the rim. Baylor is now in the bubble mix, though the Bears' bona fides — sparkling quality metrics, solid resume metrics, five Q1 wins, 11-13 record against the top two quadrants — all point towards inclusion in the field. The biggest risk is if the committee goes rogue and cites the version of Baylor without injured forward Josh Ojianwuna (4-6 overall, no Q1 victories) is different enough to not warrant inclusion. I do not expect that to be the case. West Virginia Profile Strengths: Six Q1 wins, including four in Q1A, zero bad losses. Profile Weaknesses: Metrics are squarely in bubble land, 13 total losses. Looking Ahead: After careful reexamination, I am moving West Virginia back down a category. Their metrics are on par with the rest of the bubble, and the committee has the 'out' of devaluing a couple of the Mountaineers' early wins because Tucker DeVries played in them before his season-ending upper-body injury. Fortunately for West Virginia, the Big 12 tournament loss to Colorado was in Quad 2, so it is not a 'bad' loss on the resume, but it's a worrisome closing statement to the Mountaineers' at-large argument. Six Q1 wins and no bad losses may still be enough, but WVU will be nervously rooting against bid stealers until Sunday. Locks: Creighton, Marquette, St. John's, UConn Should Be In: None In the Mix: Xavier On the Fringe: None Advertisement Xavier Profile Strengths: Zero bad losses, respectable metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Only two Q1 wins. Looking Ahead: Heartbreak at Madison Square Garden for Xavier. The Musketeers led Marquette for most of the first 35 minutes, including a 14-point cushion with 17 minutes left in the game. But they could not hold off the tenacious Golden Eagles, and despite 38 points from Ryan Conwell, Xavier missed out on a massive Q1 win opportunity. Sean Miller's team is now at the mercy of the selection committee — and of the quadrant cutoffs. The Musketeers need UConn to end in the NET top 30 (the Huskies rose from 31st to 29th on Friday morning) to add a second Q1 win to their resume. They would also love for the committee to value that five of Xavier's seven Q2 wins are in the 'high Q2' area (home vs. NET 31-55, neutral vs. NET 51-75, road at NET 76-100). Xavier is as bubbly as it gets, and the wait until Sunday will be excruciating. GO DEEPER A fireside chat with Dan Hurley: In UConn's quest for a dynasty, can the Huskies stand the smoke? Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin Should Be In: None In the Mix: Indiana, Ohio State On the Fringe: Nebraska Indiana Profile Strengths: Zero losses outside Q1, very competitive resume metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Only a 4-13 record in Q1 games. Looking Ahead: The wait begins for Indiana. The Hoosiers could not get over the hump against Oregon on Thursday afternoon and will now fret over their fate until the end of the weekend. Indiana has beaten every opponent it should beat, and it played up a couple of crucial times. The ultra-high-end road win at Michigan State looms especially large as one of the best wins of anyone on the bubble. If I had to guess, this is a First Four squad, but a lot can change between now and Sunday. Ohio State Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, multiple elite wins away from Columbus, great nonconference SOS, no bad losses. Profile Weaknesses: Only two games over .500 overall, 9-15 record against Q1/Q2. Looking Ahead: Oh, boy. Ohio State is in real trouble after dropping its Big Ten tournament opener to Iowa. Although that game in itself is no issue (just a Q2 defeat), it put the Buckeyes in the terrifying position of being just 17-15 overall, two games over .500. No team so close to neutral has ever received an at-large bid, meaning that Ohio State needs a mini-miracle to go dancing now. Based on the other strengths of this resume, we'll keep OSU in the mix, but some committee members may automatically eliminate the Buckeyes at this point. Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt Should Be In: Arkansas In the Mix: Oklahoma, Texas On the Fringe: None Arkansas What They Need: Arkansas let Lock status slip away against Ole Miss on Thursday afternoon. With the game tied 80-80, Trevon Brazile's go-ahead free throws with under 10 seconds remaining both bricked off the iron, and the Rebels' Sean Pedulla drilled a 3 just before the buzzer to send Ole Miss onward to face Auburn. As a result, the Razorbacks will be tense until they see their name revealed on Selection Sunday. That is not a guarantee, but the Hogs' five Q1 wins and overall clean resume (zero bad losses) should get them to Dayton for the First Four, at the very least. Oklahoma Profile Strengths: Seven Q1 wins, competitive metrics, 10-12 vs. top two quadrants. Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, conference record eyesore? Looking Ahead: The Sooners hope to never see Otega Oweh again. The former Sooner ripped his old team's heart out again late on Thursday night, and Oklahoma took another gut-wrenching one-point loss at the buzzer. The Sooners have clearly proven themselves at the highest level via seven Q1 wins, many of which were away from home. Porter Moser, Jeremiah Fears and the rest of the squad have a long wait until Selection Sunday, but as long as the committee doesn't balk at their 6-12 conference record in a league with 12 or 13 other NCAA Tournament teams, this profile looks good enough to dance. Advertisement Texas Profile Strengths: Outstanding quality metrics, seven Q1 wins, no bad losses. Profile Weaknesses: Poor nonconference SOS, 10-14 record against top two quadrants. Looking Ahead: Absolutely massive result for Texas on Thursday. The Longhorns added a seventh Q1 win, this time over Texas A&M, and the resulting bump in their metrics elevated them to true at-large range. With 14 losses already, though, Texas cannot feel safe yet, especially if the committee simply does not want to stuff 14 SEC squads into the field. Rodney Terry's group can make an even louder statement on Friday in the quarterfinal matchup against Tennessee. Locks: Drake (auto-bid), Gonzaga (auto-bid), Memphis, New Mexico, Saint Mary's, Utah State Should Be In: None In the Mix: Boise State, Colorado State, Dayton, San Diego State, VCU, UC Irvine, UC San Diego On the Fringe: George Mason, North Texas, San Francisco Boise State Profile Strengths: Two key nonconference wins, solid predictive metrics. Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, resume metrics still slightly low. Looking Ahead: The Broncos bounced back from the season-ending loss to Colorado State with a critical victory over San Diego State in the Mountain West quarterfinals. Leon Rice's team is inching closer to the field, though their bad losses and resume metrics are still major limitations. Fortunately, wins over Clemson and Saint Mary's in the nonconference have aged incredibly well. The Broncos now get a crack at New Mexico on Friday for a major needle-moving victory. It might not necessarily lock up a bid, but it would make an emphatic statement to the committee before the weekend rolls around. Colorado State Profile Strengths: Strong 8-7 record against the top two quadrants, improving metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, very little of note in the nonconference. Looking Ahead: Colorado State handled its business on Thursday night in Vegas, dispatching a veteran Nevada squad via an excellent defensive performance. That bumped CSU's Q1+Q2 record over .500, a strong data point relative to many of the power conference bubblers. The Rams' metrics are still trailing the pack, though, and they lack the kind of headline Q1A win that will catch the committee's attention. The Rams must pick up another big win in the Mountain West semifinals on Friday night, and then we will re-examine their status on Saturday morning. Dayton Profile Strengths: Strong nonconference SOS, 3-3 record vs. Q1. Profile Weaknesses: Poor metrics all around, one Q3 loss. Looking Ahead: The Flyers are still a mega-long shot, but last Friday's win at VCU lifts them back onto the fringes of the discussion. Unfortunately, Dayton would not get another crack at VCU until the championship game; at that point, another victory would do a lot more than simply bolster the Flyers' at-large resume. It's tough to envision Dayton getting in just by adding wins over Saint Joseph's in the quarterfinals and George Mason in the semifinals, but I suppose stranger things have happened. San Diego State Profile Strengths: Elite win vs. Houston, 8-8 vs. top two quadrants, elite nonconference SOS. Profile Weaknesses: Middling predictive metrics, one Q3 loss. Looking Ahead: The Aztecs fell to Boise State in their Mountain West tournament opener, managing a meager 52 points in a disappointing offensive effort. Not only did that add another loss to SDSU's ledger, but it also gave the bubble adversary Broncos an extra Q1 win. SDSU's neutral-site win over Houston remains a crown jewel, and SDSU did sweep Boise during the regular season. A neutral-site win over Creighton has aged well, too. But this is a truly nebulous case, and SDSU will join the chorus of teams ardently cheering against bid stealers over the next few days. VCU Profile Strengths: Strong overall and road/neutral record, 6-5 against top two quadrants. Profile Weaknesses: Almost no Q1 games at all, Q4 loss. Looking Ahead: The Rams took a surprising home loss to Dayton to close the regular season, sending them right back into the thick of the bubble discussion. Fortunately, the Flyers have played themselves into Q2 loss territory. VCU is still the presumptive favorite in the A-10 tournament, but if the Rams do need an at-large bid, the conversation could be polarizing for a team that has not played a single Q1A game and has wobbly resume metrics already. I would not suggest losing in the quarterfinals of the A-10 tournament. Advertisement UC Irvine Profile Strengths: Q1A win at Big West foe UCSD, 17-3 road/neutral record. Profile Weaknesses: Three Q3 losses, limited opportunities to improve their stock. Looking Ahead: The Anteaters smoked UC Davis on Thursday and dug deep to come back and beat UC Santa Barbara on Saturday night, narrowly keeping their at-large dreams alive. UC Irvine is currently only in consideration because of their resume metrics, but even those aren't quite good enough to get the Anteaters inside the cutline. A win over Cal Poly in the Big West tournament semifinals is unlikely to make a major difference. UC San Diego Profile Strengths: Top-notch road win at Utah State, gaudy overall record, quickly improving metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Limited big win opportunities, two Q3 losses. Looking Ahead: With Drake locking up the Missouri Valley's automatic bid, UC San Diego is now set up to be the firebrand of the selection process. Eric Olen's squad could get to 29 wins with a Big West tournament semifinal victory. Would that be enough if the Tritons lose in the title game to UC Irvine (nowhere near a bad loss)? Mid-major fans everywhere hope so, but in practice, the committee could end up defaulting to teams with more big wins. Here's hoping UCSD renders that conversation meaningless by simply earning the Big West's automatic bid. The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Photos: Ethan Miller, Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
New York Times
13-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Men's college basketball bubble watch: Ohio State in trouble; SEC hopefuls step up
Editor's note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men's & women's NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments. Welcome, Bubble Watch fans, to the equivalent of staying up all night and cramming for a final exam! Teams with NCAA Tournament hopes have one last chance to leave a lasting impression — good or bad — with the selection committee, and early-week losers will have an incredibly long and stressful wait until Selection Sunday. Advertisement The bubble action will be frequent and frenetic this week, so we'll be bringing you daily updates to the Bubble Watch all the way through Sunday morning. Who is making a case to get in? Who is really feeling the squeeze of the cutline? And who felt the painful pop of a bubble before Sunday even arrived? We'll try to answer all of those questions here, exploring each team's changing prospects as the week progresses. Many power conference bubblers got their tournament runs underway on Wednesday, so we have some movement to examine. The biggest result came at the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis, where Ohio State fell in the opening round to Iowa. The Buckeyes are in dire straits now with a 17-15 overall record. In the SEC, the push for a ridiculous NCAA-record 14 bids took a positive turn, as the most bubbly teams — Arkansas, Texas and Oklahoma — all picked up victories. Even more action is coming on Thursday, including vital games in the ACC, Big East and SEC, and we will be back on Friday morning to sort through all the madness! For a projection of the actual bracket, make sure to check out Joe Rexrode's latest Bracket Watch. And here are some ground rules for navigating the Bubble Watch below. Up to Lock: None Up to Should Be In: Arkansas Up to In the Mix: None Added to On the Fringe: None Down to In the Mix: None Down to On the Fringe: None Dropped from On the Fringe: None Earned automatic bid: Gonzaga Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville Should Be In: None In the Mix: North Carolina, SMU, Wake Forest On the Fringe: None North Carolina Profile Strengths: Excellent nonconference strength of schedule, strong quality metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Gruesome 1-11 record vs. Q1, took a Q3 loss. Looking Ahead: UNC continues to smash inferior competition, quickly disposing of a young and exhausted Notre Dame squad 76-56 on Wednesday afternoon. Discussing the Tar Heels' resume feels like we're going in circles, though. Once again, UNC has to win through to a matchup with Duke in the semifinals, and after not getting the job done at the Dean Dome, the Heels would desperately need to take advantage of another chance to beat their hated rivals. Thursday's quarterfinal against Wake Forest feels like a quasi-elimination game. Advertisement SMU Profile Strengths: No bad losses, excellent road/neutral record. Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1 wins, poor nonconference SOS. Looking Ahead: The Mustangs wrecked Syracuse in the second half on Wednesday night to pass the warmup portion of their final evaluation. That gives SMU another chance at its first Q1 win of the season, as Clemson awaits in the quarterfinals. A win there may not be enough for a resume that sorely lacks heft, so the Ponies probably need a win over Louisville in the semifinals, too. Clemson controlled the entire first meeting in Dallas, but SMU does have a healthy Boopie Miller this time around. Wake Forest Profile Strengths: Solid resume metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only one win over a likely tournament team, two Q3 losses. Looking Ahead: Wake Forest stayed (barely) alive by smashing Georgia Tech in the regular season finale in Winston-Salem. The Deacons have 20 wins, including two against Quad 1, and are 8-8 against the top two quadrants. If Steve Forbes' squad beats UNC in the ACC tournament quarterfinals and somehow topples Duke in the semifinals, it will likely go dancing. Losing to UNC, though, would all but end Wake's chances. GO DEEPER This is Jon Rothstein: Is college basketball's ultimate insider in on the bit? Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech Should Be In: Baylor, West Virginia In the Mix: None On the Fringe: Cincinnati, TCU Baylor What They Need: Baylor manhandled frigid-shooting Kansas State on Wednesday for its 19th win of the season. The Bears now face Texas Tech on Thursday evening, removing any possibility of a questionable loss to close the campaign. We will not quite adorn Baylor with a Lock label, but it would take some wild circumstances — a blowout loss to TTU, other big bubble wins, a couple of bid stealers — for the Bears to slide out of the field. Tremendous quality metrics could end up bumping them to a decent seed, as well. West Virginia What They Need: You had to make it interesting, didn't you, Mountaineers? West Virginia led Colorado for 30-plus minutes on Wednesday, but its offense sputtered late in a disappointing 67-60 loss to the Big 12's last-place team. Fortunately, the Buffaloes are in Quad 2 territory, so it is not a 'bad' loss on the resume, but it's a worrisome closing statement to the Mountaineers' at-large argument. Six Q1 wins and no bad losses will probably still be enough, but WVU will be nervously rooting against bid stealers until Sunday. GO DEEPER What's up with the Big 12 tournament's court? Locks: Creighton, Marquette, St. John's, UConn Should Be In: None In the Mix: Xavier On the Fringe: None Xavier Profile Strengths: Zero bad losses, respectable metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Only one Q1 win. Looking Ahead: It was not overly convincing, but Xavier got by Providence on Saturday, 76-68. That set the stage for what could amount to a win-and-in opportunity against Marquette on Thursday in the Big East tournament quarterfinals, and the Musketeers have already beaten the Golden Eagles in Milwaukee. UConn's elevation into the NET top 30 (the Huskies are at No. 31 as of Thursday morning) would hand Xavier a second Q1 win, but there is no guarantee it gets there. Despite a current seven-game winning streak, Sean Miller's squad probably comes up short for an at-large bid with a loss Thursday. GO DEEPER A fireside chat with Dan Hurley: In UConn's quest for a dynasty, can the Huskies stand the smoke? Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin Should Be In: None In the Mix: Indiana, Ohio State On the Fringe: Nebraska Indiana Profile Strengths: Zero losses outside Q1, very competitive resume metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Only a 4-12 record in Q1 games. Looking Ahead: Mike Woodson's Hoosiers got a massive win against Ohio State in their regular season finale. Their ultra clean resume has just enough high-end heft (three Q1A wins) to offset having 12 losses (none of which are anywhere near 'bad' territory). They have no risk of a bad loss at the Big Ten tournament, either, opening with a Q1 game against Oregon, whom they nearly beat in Eugene last week. A win might even elevate the Hoosiers above the First Four, while a loss would make for a long wait until Selection Sunday. Advertisement Ohio State Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, multiple elite wins away from Columbus, great nonconference SOS, no bad losses. Profile Weaknesses: Only two games over .500 overall, 9-15 record against Q1/Q2. Looking Ahead: Oh, boy. Ohio State is in real trouble after dropping its Big Ten tournament opener to Iowa. Although that game in itself is no issue (just a Q2 defeat), it put the Buckeyes in the terrifying position of being just 17-15 overall, two games over .500. No team so close to neutral has ever received an at-large bid, meaning that Ohio State needs a mini-miracle to go dancing now. Based on the other strengths of this resume, we'll keep OSU in the mix, but some committee members may automatically eliminate the Buckeyes at this point. Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt Should Be In: Arkansas In the Mix: Oklahoma, Texas On the Fringe: None Arkansas What They Need: The Hogs flirted with disaster, allowing a 20-point lead over South Carolina to shrink all the way down to one late in the second half. Massive baskets from DJ Wagner and Trevon Brazile saved the day, though, and John Calipari's team can no longer pick up anything remotely resembling a bad loss. The Hogs move on to face Ole Miss on Thursday afternoon, and although a win there would seal the deal, Arkansas should be fine — though not quite comfortable — without it. Oklahoma Profile Strengths: Seven Q1 wins, competitive metrics, 11-11 vs. top two quadrants. Profile Weaknesses: Conference record eyesore? Looking Ahead: Oklahoma shot the lights out in the first half of a 81-75 win over Georgia on Wednesday night, burying 11 triples en route to a narrow lead at the break. The Sooners held on to beat Georgia, adding another neutral-site Q1 win (and a 20th overall win) to the Sooners' impressive resume. Porter Moser's team is looking good in every category that truly matters, but the committee could still pull the rug out from under the Sooners' feet if they decide 6-12 in the SEC is not good enough. If OU can take down Kentucky on Thursday night, it will assuredly be dancing. Texas Profile Strengths: Outstanding quality metrics, six Q1 wins, no bad losses. Profile Weaknesses: Poor nonconference SOS, 9-14 record against top two quadrants. Looking Ahead: The Longhorns earned a desperately needed win against Vanderbilt in their SEC tournament opener on Wednesday. That was Texas' sixth Q1 victory, though its combined Q1/Q2 record is still a limiting factor, as are lagging resume metrics. Texas also did nothing of note in the nonconference slate, and a season-ending home loss to Oklahoma could be a harmful tiebreaker. The Longhorns need to keep winning. Next up: in-state rival Texas A&M. Locks: Drake (auto-bid), Gonzaga (auto-bid), Memphis, New Mexico, Saint Mary's, Utah State Should Be In: None In the Mix: Boise State, Colorado State, Dayton, San Diego State, VCU, UC Irvine, UC San Diego On the Fringe: George Mason, North Texas, San Francisco Boise State Profile Strengths: Two key nonconference wins, solid predictive metrics. Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, resume metrics still slightly low. Looking Ahead: Boise State lost a critical home game to resurgent bubble rival Colorado State to close the regular season. That leaves the Broncos in a tenuous position, almost certainly needing a win (or, more likely, two) at the Mountain West tournament to earn a bid. Their opener: another swing game against a bubble foe in San Diego State. The Aztecs swept the Broncos during the regular season, so Leon Rice's team will be desperate for revenge. Advertisement Colorado State Profile Strengths: Strong 7-7 record against the top two quadrants, improving metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, very little of note in the nonconference. Looking Ahead: Colorado State has done enough to warrant mention here, winning seven straight games to close the year. That included Friday's regular-season finale at Boise State, where the Rams secured their first Q1 win. It is likely too little, too late for CSU, but if they pick up two more key wins en route to a loss in the Mountain West tournament championship game, they could have a case. Dayton Profile Strengths: Strong nonconference SOS, 3-3 record vs. Q1. Profile Weaknesses: Poor metrics all around, one Q3 loss. Looking Ahead: The Flyers are still a mega-long shot, but Friday night's win at VCU lifts them back onto the fringes of the discussion. Unfortunately, Dayton would not get another crack at VCU until the championship game; at that point, another victory would do a lot more than simply bolster the Flyers' at-large resume. It's tough to envision Dayton getting in just by adding wins over Saint Joseph's in the quarterfinals and George Mason in the semifinals, but I suppose crazier things have happened. San Diego State Profile Strengths: Elite win vs. Houston, 8-7 vs. top two quadrants, elite nonconference SOS. Profile Weaknesses: Middling predictive metrics, one Q3 loss. Looking Ahead: The Aztecs bounced back from a loss at UNLV by dismantling a veteran Nevada squad, likely keeping them on the right side of the bubble at this juncture. A crucial matchup with Boise State awaits in the 4/5 matchup of the Mountain West tournament; SDSU is probably safe if it manages to win. A loss against the desperate Broncos, though, would leave SDSU in the committee's crosshairs. VCU Profile Strengths: Strong overall and road/neutral record, 6-5 against top two quadrants. Profile Weaknesses: Almost no Q1 games at all, Q4 loss. Looking Ahead: The Rams took a surprising home loss to Dayton to close the regular season, sending them right back into the thick of the bubble discussion. Fortunately, the Flyers have played themselves into Q2 loss territory. VCU is still the presumptive favorite in the A-10 tournament, but if the Rams do need an at-large bid, the conversation could be polarizing for a team that has not played a single Q1A game and has wobbly resume metrics already. I would not suggest losing in the quarterfinals of the A-10 tournament. UC Irvine Profile Strengths: Q1A win at Big West foe UCSD, 17-3 road/neutral record. Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, limited opportunities to improve their stock. Looking Ahead: The Anteaters smoked UC Davis on Thursday and dug deep to come back and beat UC Santa Barbara on Saturday night, narrowly keeping their at-large dreams alive. UC Irvine is currently only in consideration because of its resume metrics, but even those aren't quite good enough to get the Anteaters inside the cutline. A win over UC Riverside in the Big West tournament semifinals is unlikely to make a major difference. GO DEEPER Making the NCAA Tournament is hard. UC San Diego might kick the door down UC San Diego Profile Strengths: Top-notch road win at Utah State, gaudy overall record, quickly improving metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Limited big win opportunities, one Q3 loss. Looking Ahead: With Drake locking up the Missouri Valley's automatic bid, UC San Diego is now set up to be the firebrand of the selection process. Eric Olen's squad could get to 29 wins with a Big West tournament semifinal victory, and there's a chance a neutral-site game against CSUN would sneak into Q2. Would that be enough if the Tritons lose in the title game to UC Irvine (nowhere near a bad loss)? Mid-major fans everywhere hope so, but in practice, the committee could end up defaulting to teams with more big wins. Here's hoping UCSD renders that conversation meaningless by simply earning the Big West's automatic bid. The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Photos: Grace Smith / IndyStar / USA Today Network via Imagn Images; Steve Roberts / Imagn Images)
New York Times
10-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Men's college basketball bubble watch: Who's sweating as championship week begins?
Editor's note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men's & women's NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments. We've come to it at last: Championship Week, the last stand for bubble teams across the country and the final few nervous days for the at-large pool as bid stealers fight to shrink the number of NCAA Tournament tickets available. Advertisement Before the deluge of games between now and Selection Sunday begins, let's do a full reset on the bubble picture. I have labeled 35 teams as Locks below, along with three other teams that Should Be In. Assuming that group claims their respective conferences' auto bids (eight conferences represented) would account for 30 of the 37 at-large bids. That means there are seven spots available for the 16 teams listed as In the Mix. That sets the stage for a huge week in bubble land. Which teams will seize their opportunities and earn a bid with a key win (or wins)? And which teams will exit meekly, doomed to living in 'First Four Out' graphics come Selection Sunday? Perhaps most importantly, how many bid stealers will emerge? Drake's triumph in the Missouri Valley tournament was a bullet dodged for bubble squads, but other leagues like the American or even the Big West could squeeze the picture. For a projection of the actual bracket, make sure to check out Joe Rexrode's latest Bracket Watch. And here are some ground rules for navigating the Bubble Watch below. Up to Lock: Georgia, Utah State Up to Should Be In: West Virginia Up to In the Mix: Colorado State, Dayton Added to On the Fringe: None Down to In the Mix: None Down to On the Fringe: Nebraska Dropped from On the Fringe: None Earned automatic bid: Drake GO DEEPER Five teams are in the NCAA Tournament. Who will join them in March Madness? Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville Should Be In: None In the Mix: North Carolina, SMU, Wake Forest On the Fringe: None North Carolina Profile Strengths: Excellent nonconference strength of schedule, strong quality metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Gruesome 1-11 record vs. Q1, took a Q3 loss. Looking Ahead: UNC gave Duke a fight but could not capitalize on a huge home chance to knock off its archrival. That keeps Hubert Davis and his squad in the bubble mess, and UNC's resume lacks top-end wins. The ACC tournament draw was unkind, as well: UNC will not get a chance at more winnable Q1 games against Clemson or Louisville until the final. Anything less than beating Wake Forest in the quarterfinals and Duke in the semis would leave the Heels extremely exposed on Selection Sunday. Advertisement SMU Profile Strengths: No bad losses, excellent road/neutral record. Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1 wins and no scheduled chances for more, poor nonconference SOS. Looking Ahead: SMU is barely clinging to life on the edge of the bubble discussion after a season-ending loss at Florida State. It was only a Q2 defeat, not a bad loss, but the Mustangs' previously strong resume metrics have declined quite a bit. The Ponies almost certainly need to win three games at the ACC tournament, picking up Q1 wins against Clemson and Louisville along the way to the championship game. That run will start Wednesday against the winner of Syracuse-Florida State. Wake Forest Profile Strengths: Solid resume metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only one win over a likely tournament team, two Q3 losses. Looking Ahead: Wake Forest stayed alive (barely) by smashing Georgia Tech in the regular-season finale in Winston-Salem. The Deacons have 20 wins, including two in Quad 1, and are 8-8 against the top two quadrants. If Steve Forbes' squad beats UNC in the ACC tournament quarterfinals and somehow topples Duke in the semifinals, it will likely go dancing. Losing to UNC, though, would all but end Wake's chances. GO DEEPER How NASA engineers and astronauts influenced Cal basketball's cross-country treks Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech Should Be In: Baylor, West Virginia In the Mix: None On the Fringe: Cincinnati, TCU Baylor What They Need: The Bears nearly picked off Houston on Saturday to secure an at-large bid with an elite Q1A win. Alas, they came up just short, and with an 18-13 overall record, they could be in the danger zone if they quickly add another loss to Kansas State or (even worse) Arizona State in the Big 12 tournament. The Bears do have five Q1 wins and five more in Q2, and their quality metrics are excellent. Those indicators point Baylor toward the NCAA Tournament; only a bad loss this week would mix in some doubt. West Virginia What They Need: With six Q1 wins (including four in Q1A) and no bad losses, West Virginia is in great shape to earn an at-large bid. The Mountaineers do, however, have some minor risk in the Big 12 tournament. If they end up facing last-place Colorado, a loss there could leave them close enough to the cutline to be susceptible to bid stealers. If TCU beats Colorado, though, West Virginia has no risk of a concerning loss and would be close to a lock. Advertisement Locks: Creighton, Marquette, St. John's, UConn Should Be In: None In the Mix: Xavier On the Fringe: None Xavier Profile Strengths: Zero bad losses, respectable metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Only one Q1 win. Looking Ahead: It was not overly convincing, but Xavier got by Providence on Saturday, 76-68. That set the stage for what could amount to a win-and-in opportunity against Marquette on Thursday in the Big East tournament quarterfinals, and the Musketeers have already beaten the Golden Eagles in Milwaukee. Even despite its current seven-game winning streak, Sean Miller's squad probably comes up short for an at-large bid with a loss in that game. GO DEEPER A fireside chat with Dan Hurley: In UConn's quest for a dynasty, can the Huskies stand the smoke? Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin Should Be In: None In the Mix: Indiana, Ohio State On the Fringe: Nebraska Indiana Profile Strengths: Zero losses outside Q1, very competitive resume metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Only a 4-12 record in Q1 games. Looking Ahead: Mike Woodson's Hoosiers got a massive win against Ohio State on Saturday afternoon, improving their own resume while handing the Buckeyes their 14th loss. Indiana's ultra-clean resume has just enough high-end heft (three Q1A wins) to offset having 12 losses (none of which are anywhere near 'bad' territory). They have no risk of a bad loss at the Big Ten tournament, either, opening with a Q1 game against Oregon, whom they nearly beat in Eugene less than a week ago. A win might even elevate the Hoosiers above the First Four, while a loss would make for a long wait until Selection Sunday. Ohio State Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, multiple elite wins away from Columbus, great nonconference SOS, no bad losses. Profile Weaknesses: Poor overall record, well under .500 against top two quadrants. Looking Ahead: Ohio State split two big bubble battles this week, outlasting Nebraska in double overtime before falling at Indiana on Saturday. The Buckeyes are now dancing dangerously close to an overall record eliminator: No team has ever earned an at-large bid with a record just two games over .500. That means a loss in their Big Ten tournament opener (against No. 15 seed Iowa on Wednesday) would likely eliminate them. We'll re-evaluate their profile if they win that one. Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt Should Be In: None In the Mix: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas On the Fringe: None Arkansas Profile Strengths: Two elite wins away from home, no bad losses. Profile Weaknesses: Disappointing 8-12 record against top two quadrants. Looking Ahead: Arkansas survived against Mississippi State on Saturday after blowing a big second-half lead, nudging the Razorbacks up toward safety. They are still in the mix to head to Dayton for the First Four, but a couple wins at the SEC tournament could elevate them above that level. The Hogs' path in Nashville starts with a familiar foe: South Carolina, which embarrassed Arkansas in Columbia just over a week ago. Would the Razorbacks survive another Q2 loss to the SEC's worst team? I would guess yes, but it would be an extremely stressful Selection Sunday. Advertisement Oklahoma Profile Strengths: Elite top-end wins relative to the bubble, competitive metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Accumulating a lot of losses, conference record eyesore? Looking Ahead: Oklahoma solidified its fascinating resume with another road Q1 win at Texas on Saturday, giving the Sooners an impressive six Q1 wins. The 6-12 SEC record will be a talking point for many, but in truth, this is an NCAA Tournament resume beyond that disappointing mark. A loss to Georgia in the SEC tournament opener on Wednesday would give the committee an excuse for excluding the Sooners, should it want one, but a win would have OU in solid shape. Texas Profile Strengths: Outstanding quality metrics, five Q1 wins, no bad losses. Profile Weaknesses: Poor nonconference SOS, 8-14 record against top two quadrants. Looking Ahead: You can't do that, Texas. Losing at home to a major bubble rival (Oklahoma) on Saturday leaves the Longhorns with a ton of work to do at the SEC tournament. Six games under .500 against the top two quadrants, an anchor of a nonconference strength of schedule ranking and average resume metrics mean the Longhorns need at least two and maybe three wins in Nashville. That journey through the bracket starts against Vanderbilt on Wednesday; Texas lost at Vandy in the teams' lone meeting this season. GO DEEPER With SEC tournament bracket set, Texas is the team of clear desperation Locks: Memphis, New Mexico, Saint Mary's, Utah State Should Be In: Gonzaga In the Mix: Boise State, Colorado State, Dayton, San Diego State, VCU, UC Irvine, UC San Diego On the Fringe: George Mason, North Texas, San Francisco Gonzaga What They Need: No news for Gonzaga, which has been done with its regular season for a week now. The Bulldogs get another crack at San Francisco on Monday in the WCC semifinals. Get a win there, and the Zags are almost certainly in the NCAA Tournament. They can make it academic by winning the WCC tournament, though that will likely require solving a Saint Mary's team that has confounded the Zags so far this season. Boise State Profile Strengths: Two key nonconference wins, solid predictive metrics. Profile Weaknesses: One loss each in Q3 and Q4, resume metrics still slightly low. Looking Ahead: Boise State lost a critical home game to resurgent bubble rival Colorado State to close the regular season. That leaves the Broncos in a tenuous position, almost certainly needing a win (or, more likely, two) at the Mountain West tournament to earn a bid. Their opener: another swing game against a bubble foe in San Diego State. The Aztecs swept the Broncos during the regular season, so Leon Rice's team will be desperate for revenge. Colorado State Profile Strengths: Strong 7-7 record against the top two quadrants, improving metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, very little of note in the nonconference. Looking Ahead: Colorado State has done enough to warrant mention here, winning seven straight games to close the year. That included Friday's finale at Boise State, where the Rams secured their first Q1 win of the season. It is likely too little, too late for CSU, but if it pick up two more key wins en route to a loss in the Mountain West tournament championship game, it could have a case. Dayton Profile Strengths: Strong nonconference SOS, 3-3 record vs. Q1. Profile Weaknesses: Poor metrics all around, one Q3 loss. Looking Ahead: The Flyers are still a mega-long shot, but Friday night's win at VCU lifts them back onto the fringes of the discussion. Unfortunately, Dayton would not get another crack at VCU until the championship game; at that point, another victory would do a lot more than simply bolster the Flyers' at-large resume. It's tough to envision Dayton getting in just by adding wins over Saint Joseph's in the quarterfinals and George Mason in the semifinals, but I suppose wilder things have happened. Advertisement San Diego State Profile Strengths: Elite win vs. Houston, 8-7 vs. top two quadrants, elite nonconference SOS. Profile Weaknesses: Middling predictive metrics, one Q3 loss. Looking Ahead: The Aztecs bounced back from a loss at UNLV by dismantling a veteran Nevada squad, likely keeping them on the right side of the bubble at this juncture. A crucial matchup with Boise State awaits in the 4/5 matchup of the Mountain West tournament; SDSU is probably safe if it manages to win. A loss against the desperate Broncos, though, would leave SDSU in the committee's crosshairs as a true bubbler. VCU Profile Strengths: Strong overall and road/neutral record, 7-5 against top two quadrants. Profile Weaknesses: Almost no Q1 games at all, Q4 loss. Looking Ahead: The Rams took a surprising home loss to Dayton to close the regular season, sending them right back into the thick of the bubble discussion. Fortunately, the Flyers have played themselves into Q2 loss territory. VCU is still the presumptive favorite in the A-10 tournament, but if the Rams do need an at-large bid, the conversation could be polarizing for a team that has not played a single Q1A game and has wobbly resume metrics already. I would suggest not losing in the quarterfinals. UC Irvine Profile Strengths: Q1A win at Big West foe UCSD, 4-3 record against top two quadrants. Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, limited opportunities to improve their stock. Looking Ahead: The Anteaters smoked UC Davis on Thursday and dug deep to come back and beat UC Santa Barbara on Saturday night, narrowly keeping their at-large dreams alive. UC Irvine is currently only in consideration because of their resume metrics, but even those aren't quite good enough to get the Anteaters inside the cutline. A win over UC Riverside in the Big West tournament semifinals is unlikely to make a major difference. UC San Diego Profile Strengths: Top-notch road win at Utah State, gaudy overall record, quickly improving metrics. Profile Weaknesses: Limited big win opportunities, one Q3 loss. Looking Ahead: With Drake locking up the Missouri Valley's automatic bid, UC San Diego is now set up to be the firebrand of the selection process. Eric Olen's squad could get to 29 wins with a Big West tournament semifinal victory, and there's a chance a neutral site game against CSUN would sneak into Q2. Would that be enough if the Tritons lose in the title game to UC Irvine (nowhere near a bad loss)? Mid-major fans everywhere hope so, but in practice, the committee could end up defaulting to teams with more big wins. Here's hoping UCSD renders that conversation meaningless by simply earning the Big West's automatic bid. The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Top illustration photos: Sam Greene / The Enquirer, Rich Janzaruk / Herald-Times / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
