Men's college basketball bubble watch: Who's sweating as championship week begins?

New York Times

10-03-2025

Editor's note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men's & women's NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
We've come to it at last: Championship Week, the last stand for bubble teams across the country and the final few nervous days for the at-large pool as bid stealers fight to shrink the number of NCAA Tournament tickets available.
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Before the deluge of games between now and Selection Sunday begins, let's do a full reset on the bubble picture. I have labeled 35 teams as Locks below, along with three other teams that Should Be In. Assuming that group claims their respective conferences' auto bids (eight conferences represented) would account for 30 of the 37 at-large bids. That means there are seven spots available for the 16 teams listed as In the Mix.
That sets the stage for a huge week in bubble land. Which teams will seize their opportunities and earn a bid with a key win (or wins)? And which teams will exit meekly, doomed to living in 'First Four Out' graphics come Selection Sunday?
Perhaps most importantly, how many bid stealers will emerge? Drake's triumph in the Missouri Valley tournament was a bullet dodged for bubble squads, but other leagues like the American or even the Big West could squeeze the picture.
For a projection of the actual bracket, make sure to check out Joe Rexrode's latest Bracket Watch. And here are some ground rules for navigating the Bubble Watch below.
Up to Lock: Georgia, Utah State
Up to Should Be In: West Virginia
Up to In the Mix: Colorado State, Dayton
Added to On the Fringe: None
Down to In the Mix: None
Down to On the Fringe: Nebraska
Dropped from On the Fringe: None
Earned automatic bid: Drake
GO DEEPER
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Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: North Carolina, SMU, Wake Forest
On the Fringe: None
North Carolina
Profile Strengths: Excellent nonconference strength of schedule, strong quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Gruesome 1-11 record vs. Q1, took a Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: UNC gave Duke a fight but could not capitalize on a huge home chance to knock off its archrival. That keeps Hubert Davis and his squad in the bubble mess, and UNC's resume lacks top-end wins. The ACC tournament draw was unkind, as well: UNC will not get a chance at more winnable Q1 games against Clemson or Louisville until the final. Anything less than beating Wake Forest in the quarterfinals and Duke in the semis would leave the Heels extremely exposed on Selection Sunday.
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SMU
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, excellent road/neutral record.
Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1 wins and no scheduled chances for more, poor nonconference SOS.
Looking Ahead: SMU is barely clinging to life on the edge of the bubble discussion after a season-ending loss at Florida State. It was only a Q2 defeat, not a bad loss, but the Mustangs' previously strong resume metrics have declined quite a bit. The Ponies almost certainly need to win three games at the ACC tournament, picking up Q1 wins against Clemson and Louisville along the way to the championship game. That run will start Wednesday against the winner of Syracuse-Florida State.
Wake Forest
Profile Strengths: Solid resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only one win over a likely tournament team, two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: Wake Forest stayed alive (barely) by smashing Georgia Tech in the regular-season finale in Winston-Salem. The Deacons have 20 wins, including two in Quad 1, and are 8-8 against the top two quadrants. If Steve Forbes' squad beats UNC in the ACC tournament quarterfinals and somehow topples Duke in the semifinals, it will likely go dancing. Losing to UNC, though, would all but end Wake's chances.
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Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech
Should Be In: Baylor, West Virginia
In the Mix: None
On the Fringe: Cincinnati, TCU
Baylor
What They Need: The Bears nearly picked off Houston on Saturday to secure an at-large bid with an elite Q1A win. Alas, they came up just short, and with an 18-13 overall record, they could be in the danger zone if they quickly add another loss to Kansas State or (even worse) Arizona State in the Big 12 tournament. The Bears do have five Q1 wins and five more in Q2, and their quality metrics are excellent. Those indicators point Baylor toward the NCAA Tournament; only a bad loss this week would mix in some doubt.
West Virginia
What They Need: With six Q1 wins (including four in Q1A) and no bad losses, West Virginia is in great shape to earn an at-large bid. The Mountaineers do, however, have some minor risk in the Big 12 tournament. If they end up facing last-place Colorado, a loss there could leave them close enough to the cutline to be susceptible to bid stealers. If TCU beats Colorado, though, West Virginia has no risk of a concerning loss and would be close to a lock.
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Locks: Creighton, Marquette, St. John's, UConn
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Xavier
On the Fringe: None
Xavier
Profile Strengths: Zero bad losses, respectable metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Only one Q1 win.
Looking Ahead: It was not overly convincing, but Xavier got by Providence on Saturday, 76-68. That set the stage for what could amount to a win-and-in opportunity against Marquette on Thursday in the Big East tournament quarterfinals, and the Musketeers have already beaten the Golden Eagles in Milwaukee. Even despite its current seven-game winning streak, Sean Miller's squad probably comes up short for an at-large bid with a loss in that game.
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Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Indiana, Ohio State
On the Fringe: Nebraska
Indiana
Profile Strengths: Zero losses outside Q1, very competitive resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Only a 4-12 record in Q1 games.
Looking Ahead: Mike Woodson's Hoosiers got a massive win against Ohio State on Saturday afternoon, improving their own resume while handing the Buckeyes their 14th loss. Indiana's ultra-clean resume has just enough high-end heft (three Q1A wins) to offset having 12 losses (none of which are anywhere near 'bad' territory). They have no risk of a bad loss at the Big Ten tournament, either, opening with a Q1 game against Oregon, whom they nearly beat in Eugene less than a week ago. A win might even elevate the Hoosiers above the First Four, while a loss would make for a long wait until Selection Sunday.
Ohio State
Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, multiple elite wins away from Columbus, great nonconference SOS, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor overall record, well under .500 against top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Ohio State split two big bubble battles this week, outlasting Nebraska in double overtime before falling at Indiana on Saturday. The Buckeyes are now dancing dangerously close to an overall record eliminator: No team has ever earned an at-large bid with a record just two games over .500. That means a loss in their Big Ten tournament opener (against No. 15 seed Iowa on Wednesday) would likely eliminate them. We'll re-evaluate their profile if they win that one.
Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas
On the Fringe: None
Arkansas
Profile Strengths: Two elite wins away from home, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Disappointing 8-12 record against top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Arkansas survived against Mississippi State on Saturday after blowing a big second-half lead, nudging the Razorbacks up toward safety. They are still in the mix to head to Dayton for the First Four, but a couple wins at the SEC tournament could elevate them above that level. The Hogs' path in Nashville starts with a familiar foe: South Carolina, which embarrassed Arkansas in Columbia just over a week ago. Would the Razorbacks survive another Q2 loss to the SEC's worst team? I would guess yes, but it would be an extremely stressful Selection Sunday.
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Oklahoma
Profile Strengths: Elite top-end wins relative to the bubble, competitive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Accumulating a lot of losses, conference record eyesore?
Looking Ahead: Oklahoma solidified its fascinating resume with another road Q1 win at Texas on Saturday, giving the Sooners an impressive six Q1 wins. The 6-12 SEC record will be a talking point for many, but in truth, this is an NCAA Tournament resume beyond that disappointing mark. A loss to Georgia in the SEC tournament opener on Wednesday would give the committee an excuse for excluding the Sooners, should it want one, but a win would have OU in solid shape.
Texas
Profile Strengths: Outstanding quality metrics, five Q1 wins, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor nonconference SOS, 8-14 record against top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: You can't do that, Texas. Losing at home to a major bubble rival (Oklahoma) on Saturday leaves the Longhorns with a ton of work to do at the SEC tournament. Six games under .500 against the top two quadrants, an anchor of a nonconference strength of schedule ranking and average resume metrics mean the Longhorns need at least two and maybe three wins in Nashville. That journey through the bracket starts against Vanderbilt on Wednesday; Texas lost at Vandy in the teams' lone meeting this season.
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Locks: Memphis, New Mexico, Saint Mary's, Utah State
Should Be In: Gonzaga
In the Mix: Boise State, Colorado State, Dayton, San Diego State, VCU, UC Irvine, UC San Diego
On the Fringe: George Mason, North Texas, San Francisco
Gonzaga
What They Need: No news for Gonzaga, which has been done with its regular season for a week now. The Bulldogs get another crack at San Francisco on Monday in the WCC semifinals. Get a win there, and the Zags are almost certainly in the NCAA Tournament. They can make it academic by winning the WCC tournament, though that will likely require solving a Saint Mary's team that has confounded the Zags so far this season.
Boise State
Profile Strengths: Two key nonconference wins, solid predictive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: One loss each in Q3 and Q4, resume metrics still slightly low.
Looking Ahead: Boise State lost a critical home game to resurgent bubble rival Colorado State to close the regular season. That leaves the Broncos in a tenuous position, almost certainly needing a win (or, more likely, two) at the Mountain West tournament to earn a bid. Their opener: another swing game against a bubble foe in San Diego State. The Aztecs swept the Broncos during the regular season, so Leon Rice's team will be desperate for revenge.
Colorado State
Profile Strengths: Strong 7-7 record against the top two quadrants, improving metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, very little of note in the nonconference.
Looking Ahead: Colorado State has done enough to warrant mention here, winning seven straight games to close the year. That included Friday's finale at Boise State, where the Rams secured their first Q1 win of the season. It is likely too little, too late for CSU, but if it pick up two more key wins en route to a loss in the Mountain West tournament championship game, it could have a case.
Dayton
Profile Strengths: Strong nonconference SOS, 3-3 record vs. Q1.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor metrics all around, one Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Flyers are still a mega-long shot, but Friday night's win at VCU lifts them back onto the fringes of the discussion. Unfortunately, Dayton would not get another crack at VCU until the championship game; at that point, another victory would do a lot more than simply bolster the Flyers' at-large resume. It's tough to envision Dayton getting in just by adding wins over Saint Joseph's in the quarterfinals and George Mason in the semifinals, but I suppose wilder things have happened.
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San Diego State
Profile Strengths: Elite win vs. Houston, 8-7 vs. top two quadrants, elite nonconference SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: Middling predictive metrics, one Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Aztecs bounced back from a loss at UNLV by dismantling a veteran Nevada squad, likely keeping them on the right side of the bubble at this juncture. A crucial matchup with Boise State awaits in the 4/5 matchup of the Mountain West tournament; SDSU is probably safe if it manages to win. A loss against the desperate Broncos, though, would leave SDSU in the committee's crosshairs as a true bubbler.
VCU
Profile Strengths: Strong overall and road/neutral record, 7-5 against top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Almost no Q1 games at all, Q4 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Rams took a surprising home loss to Dayton to close the regular season, sending them right back into the thick of the bubble discussion. Fortunately, the Flyers have played themselves into Q2 loss territory. VCU is still the presumptive favorite in the A-10 tournament, but if the Rams do need an at-large bid, the conversation could be polarizing for a team that has not played a single Q1A game and has wobbly resume metrics already. I would suggest not losing in the quarterfinals.
UC Irvine
Profile Strengths: Q1A win at Big West foe UCSD, 4-3 record against top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, limited opportunities to improve their stock.
Looking Ahead: The Anteaters smoked UC Davis on Thursday and dug deep to come back and beat UC Santa Barbara on Saturday night, narrowly keeping their at-large dreams alive. UC Irvine is currently only in consideration because of their resume metrics, but even those aren't quite good enough to get the Anteaters inside the cutline. A win over UC Riverside in the Big West tournament semifinals is unlikely to make a major difference.
UC San Diego
Profile Strengths: Top-notch road win at Utah State, gaudy overall record, quickly improving metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Limited big win opportunities, one Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: With Drake locking up the Missouri Valley's automatic bid, UC San Diego is now set up to be the firebrand of the selection process. Eric Olen's squad could get to 29 wins with a Big West tournament semifinal victory, and there's a chance a neutral site game against CSUN would sneak into Q2. Would that be enough if the Tritons lose in the title game to UC Irvine (nowhere near a bad loss)? Mid-major fans everywhere hope so, but in practice, the committee could end up defaulting to teams with more big wins. Here's hoping UCSD renders that conversation meaningless by simply earning the Big West's automatic bid.
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(Top illustration photos: Sam Greene / The Enquirer, Rich Janzaruk / Herald-Times / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)