Trump's shift away from Iran hawks opens door to potential deal

Middle East Eye

28-01-2025

With US President Donald Trump back in the White House, talks about a potential nuclear deal between Tehran and Washington have resurfaced in Iran. While the idea of a new agreement is being widely discussed, the path to such a breakthrough is fraught with significant challenges.
In 2015, Iran and the United States, under former president Barack Obama, along with other world powers, successfully reached a historic agreement on Tehran's nuclear programme.
The deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), involved Iran limiting its nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of crippling international sanctions.
While Tehran remained committed to its obligations under the agreement, Trump, surrounded by advisors hostile to Iran, unilaterally withdrew from the accord in 2018, reimposing sanctions and escalating tensions.
Despite the adversarial rhetoric from both sides, there were moments during Trump's first presidency when Iran and the US appeared close to reaching a new understanding. However, these efforts were consistently derailed by a range of obstacles.
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According to a source from the administration of former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (2013–2021), the Iranian leadership did not grant Rouhani or his foreign minister, Javad Zarif, permission to engage in direct negotiations with the Trump administration.
The source recalled a notable instance during Rouhani's visit to New York for the United Nations General Assembly when Trump and Rouhani were reportedly on the brink of meeting. However, the meeting ultimately did not materialise, as Rouhani hesitated due to fears of a backlash in Tehran, where he lacked the necessary authorisation from the Iranian leadership.
Interestingly, the source revealed that, at one point, the establishment did permit Rouhani to move forward with indirect negotiations.
"A proposal was crafted and approved by the Iranian leadership to be conveyed to Trump via Russian President Vladimir Putin. This proposal was indeed communicated to Trump, who expressed his approval. However, [then secretary of state Mike] Pompeo eventually entered the field, derailing the entire effort," the source told Middle East Eye.
Trump's frustration with Iran hawks
Trump's strained relationship with prominent Iran hawks, such as Pompeo, ex-national security advisor John Bolton, and former Iran special representative Brian Hook, has been evident. All three individuals, once central to Trump's foreign policy team, have now been sidelined, barred from rejoining his team.
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In a surprising move, Trump has also appointed officials with unconventional views on the Middle East to significant positions.
For instance, Michael DiMino, who previously served in the CIA and the Pentagon, was recently named deputy assistant secretary of defence for the Middle East. DiMino has expressed skepticism about military confrontations with Iran and has advocated for a more measured US approach in the region.
This shift in Trump's team composition has been met with approval from many Iranian analysts and media outlets.
A foreign policy commentator writing for reformist outlets noted, "The exclusion of hawks from Trump's circle is a positive development for both Iran and the US. Figures like Pompeo and Bolton were major obstacles to diplomatic efforts and repeatedly blocked potential breakthroughs."
He further suggested that Iran should seize the opportunity to establish direct and effective channels of communication with Trump, possibly through intermediaries like his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff or even Elon Musk.
"Such a move would allow talks to proceed swiftly and without interference from third parties," he explained.
Trump is expected to put Witkoff, a real estate investor who played a pivotal role in securing the Gaza ceasefire, in charge of the Iran file.
Divisions within Iran
While some within the Iranian government see a renewed opportunity for engagement, conservatives remain deeply opposed to any dialogue with the US.
'This is a unique opportunity for comprehensive engagement. Both sides should take advantage of it to build a new foundation for cooperation'
- Iranian policymaker
Speaking to MEE, an analyst close to the principlist faction argued that the country's current economic challenges, combined with mixed signals from certain government officials, could be part of a strategy to create internal pressure, thereby paving the way for negotiations - much like the lead-up to the 2013 talks that resulted in the JCPOA.
A source familiar with internal debates within the Iranian government meanwhile revealed to MEE that the establishment has recently granted President Masoud Pezeshkian permission to explore the possibility of talks with the US.
However, this move has not gone unchallenged. Conservatives have organised demonstrations and issued public statements condemning Pezeshkian and any potential agreement with Washington.
Their aim, according to the source, is to stir public and clerical opposition to such negotiations, thereby pressuring the leadership to withdraw its approval.
Calls for a new path forward
A policymaker who served during Rouhani's presidency told MEE that the time is ripe for both Iran and the US to reverse the trajectory of their strained relationship.
"This is a unique opportunity for comprehensive engagement. Both sides should take advantage of it to build a new foundation for cooperation," he said.
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Similarly, a former senior diplomat in Europe said he believed that Iran should bypass traditional channels and engage Trump's team through discreet means.
"To prevent interference from hawks, Iran must privately negotiate a framework for discussions and a potential deal. Establishing mutual trust is crucial at this stage," he said.
The diplomat added that the best form of negotiation between Iran and the United States is comprehensive talks, including on some level of cooperation and understanding in the region.
As discussions about a possible agreement continue to evolve, the road ahead remains uncertain.
Both sides face domestic and international challenges that could either pave the way for a breakthrough or perpetuate the current cycle of hostility.