Warm Home Discount expansion will push energy prices higher in October, says leading forecaster
The price cap will increase to £1,737 in autumn, according to energy consultancy Cornwall Insight in its final forecast.
It represents a £17 - or 1 per cent - increase from the current price cap, which is currently set at £1,720 for a dual-fuel household.
It means households would pay 26.29p/kWh for electricity and 6.19p/kWh for gas, with standing charges of 54p and 33p, respectively.
Cornwall Insight said its forecast factors in Ofgem's changes, which include the expansion of the Warm Home Discount scheme for vulnerable households and is expected to add £15 to a typical bill.
In June, the Government announced that nearly 3million more low-income households will be eligible for the £150 discount this winter.
The forecaster added that wholesale prices for electricity and gas are on a downward trajectory but remain volatile because of geopolitical factors, with US trade policy an 'underlying concern'.
Europe is expected to ease rules on gas storage stocks for the winter months which is expected to push prices downwards too.
Dr Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Corwnall Insight said: 'News of higher bills will not be welcomed by households, especially as winter approaches.
'While the added costs behind this forecasted rise are aimed at supporting those most in need, it does mean typical bills will increase despite relatively lower wholesale costs. It's a reminder that the price cap reflects more than just the market price of energy.'
In the longer term, the forecaster anticipates a small drop in the price cap in January but this will depend on geopolitics, weather patterns, and changes to policy costs.
While energy prices are slowly coming down, they remain higher than the levels seen before the energy crisis, but it's possible to get a fixed energy deal that is cheaper than the price cap.
Is it a good time to fix your energy bill?
Many households have already moved to a fixed energy deal to save money on their monthly bill.
Suppliers are still offering competitive deals that undercut the current price cap, but with prices set to fall later this year, are they worth it?
Richard Neudegg, director of regulation at Uswitch.com says: 'A predicted 1 per cent increase in the October price cap may not seem significant - but it brings into sharp focus that consumers need to get ready for the winter now.
'Most households will use significantly more energy in the colder months, so the October cap rates will dictate the cost of keeping our homes warm as winter starts to bite for those households still on the price cap.
'Bill payers on a standard variable tariff can beat these expected rises and save on bills by switching to a well-priced fixed deal now.'
Outfox Energy is offering a 12 month fixed deal at £1,455, representing a £265 saving on the July price cap and and £248 for October's predicted prices.
Its 24 month deal offers a saving of £263 from the current price cap, while customers can save £261 via its 15 month deal.
Fuse Energy's 13 month deal is priced at £1,460 which offers a saving on both the current and predicted price cap.
The best fixed deals
Supplier Tariff Fix duration Average annual bill Saving vs the July price cap (£1,720) Exit fees Availability
Outfox Energy Fix'd Dual Aug25 12M v2.0 12 months £1,455 £265 £75 per fuel Direct via Outfox the Market
Outfox Energy 2-year Fix'd Dual Aug25 v2.0 24 month £1,457 £263 £125 per fuel Direct via Outfox the Market
Outfox Energy Fix'd Dual Aug25 15M v2.0 15 months £1,459 £261 £100 per fuel Direct via Outfox the Market
Fuse Energy August 2025 Fixed (13m) V2 13 months £1,460 £260 £50 per fuel Special deal on: Uswitch.com, Confused.com, and direct via Fuse Energy
Fuse Energy August 2025 Fixed (15m) V1 15 months £1,519 £201 £50 per fuel Uswitch.com, Confused.com, and direct via Fuse Energy
Fuse Energy August 2025 Fixed (12m) V1 12 months £1,536 £184 £50 per fuel Direct via Fuse Energy
Ecotricity EcoFixed 1 Year Green Tariff July 25 V6 12 months £1,540 £180 £75 per fuel Direct via Ecotricity
Tulo Energy Tulo Fixed July 25 12 months £1,611 £109 £60 per fuel Direct via Tulo Energy
So Energy So Eucalyptus One Year - Green 12 months £1,616 £104 £50 per fuel Uswitch.com, Confused.com, and direct via So Energy
So Energy So Eucalyptus Two Year - Green 24 months £1,643 £77 £75 per fuel Uswitch.com, Confused.com, and direct via So Energy
Source: Uswitch.com. Prices correct as of 9:00am on 18 August 2025. Tariffs included within the table are the cheapest non-bundle fixed tariffs, not variable or tracker. All energy tariffs and prices mentioned are subject to change without notice, and rates vary upon region. These are the cheapest tariffs available based on suppliers who have updated Uswitch with their rates. *No exit fees when taken direct.
Can you save money on energy bills? Check the best fixed deals
When energy prices spiked most households slipped energy price cap tariffs, but it is now possible again to switch to fixed rate energy deals that can save you money.
This is Money's recommended partner uSwitch lets you compare the best energy deals for you, based on your home and gas and electricity costs.
> Check the best fixed rate energy deals with uSwitch and This is Money *
By entering your address and energy usage, you can search for energy deals that can cut your costs and suit how you live.
Switching energy provider can also help the planet, if you move to one of the green deals offering electricity from renewable sources and more environmentally-friendly gas.
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