Have Skyrizi and Rinvoq Successfully Saved AbbVie From Humira LoE?
AbbVie ABBV expects to return to robust revenue growth in 2025, just two years after losing U.S. exclusivity for its flagship drug, Humira. The drug, which went off-patent in January 2023, saw first-quarter 2025 sales decline nearly 50% year over year to $1.12 billion. Humira had already lost exclusivity in ex-U.S. markets in 2018.
Despite the steep decline, ABBV's ex-Humira platform grew more than 21% year over year (on a reported basis) in the first quarter of 2025, driven by its newer immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. The company successfully launched Skyrizi and Rinvoq across Humira's major indications and a distinct new indication, atopic dermatitis. Both drugs showed strong performance across all approved indications, especially in the popular inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) space, which includes two conditions: ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD).
Strong immunology-market growth, market share gains and momentum from new indications, such as the recent launch of Skyrizi in UC, as well as the potential for five new indications for Rinvoq over the next few years, are expected to drive these drugs' future growth. On the back of this continued momentum, AbbVie raised its previously issued guidance by around $900 million and now expects to record $24.7 billion from the combined sales of both drugs this year. Our model estimates the combined sales figure to be around $24.85 billion.
ABBV's Competition in the Immunology Space
The targeted market is highly competitive. A key player in this area is Johnson & Johnson JNJ, which already markets blockbuster medications, Stelara and Tremfya. Both of these J&J drugs are approved across multiple immunology indications, including UC and CD indications. Since Stelara lost U.S. LoE earlier this year, J&J has shifted focus to Tremfya to maintain its foothold in the immunology space.
Another pharma giant expanding its presence in immunology is Eli Lilly LLY, following the FDA approval of Omvoh for the UC indication in late 2023. Omvoh marked Lilly's first immunology drug approved for a type of IBD in the United States and plays a key role in building out its immunology portfolio. This Lilly drug received FDA approval for the CD indication in January.
ABBV's Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Shares of AbbVie have outperformed the industry year to date, as seen in the chart below.
From a valuation standpoint, AbbVie is not very cheap. Based on the price/earnings (P/E) ratio, the company's shares currently trade at 14.48 times forward earnings, a tad lower than its industry's average of 15.12. The stock is cheaper than some other large drugmakers, such as Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk but is priced much higher than most other large drugmakers. The stock is also trading above its five-year mean of 12.38.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has declined from $12.30 per share to $12.28, while that for 2026 has increased from $13.97 to $14.05 over the past 60 days.
AbbVie currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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