Will weighted H-1B visa system end lottery-based model? Trump admin has new plan
Indians remain the dominant beneficiaries of the H-1B non-immigrant visa programme.In 2022, Indian nationals secured 77% of the 320,000 approved H-1B visas. This trend continued in fiscal year 2023, when they accounted for 72.3% of the 386,000 visas issued.WHAT DOES DHS FILING SAY ON H-1B VISA PROGRAMME?While the DHS filing provides few details about what the weighted selection process would entail, it clarifies that the change would affect the statutorily capped portion of the programme, currently limited to 85,000 visas per year.Of these, 20,000 are reserved for workers with at least a Master's degree. The US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) will remain the agency responsible for handling visa applications.At present, H-1B visas are distributed via a random lottery system, which treats all applicants equally regardless of qualifications or employer. However, large tech firms such as Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft often submit high volumes of applications, giving them an edge in securing a bigger share of available visas.Universities and research institutions, meanwhile, are not subject to the annual cap and can hire foreign talent year-round.WHERE DID THE NEW H-1B SELECTION IDEA COME FROM?In January, Jeremy L Neufeld and the Institute for Progress (IFP) analysed the potential impact of replacing the H-1B visa lottery with a salary-based ranking system. Their findings showed that average first-time H-1B salaries would surge from $106,000 to $172,000, dramatically reshaping the labour market.This change would effectively dismantle the current business model of many outsourcing firms, which rely on lower-wage visa workers. Additionally, it would increase the chances of highly skilled professionals, especially PhD holders, securing visas, shifting the program's focus more towards specialised talent.According to their analysis, the economic value of the H-1B programme could rise by as much as 88% if applications were evaluated on factors like salary or seniority.advertisement"The USCIS is in the process of writing a rule to end the H-1B lottery and replace it with a weighted selection method. That's good news. The USCIS should stick as closely as possible to a raw salary ranking (no 4 levels), with boosts for younger workers and low cost-of-living," Connor O'Brien, a researcher at the Economic Innovation Group, wrote on X."The H-1B is the primary way through which the United States attracts high-skilled immigrants. That it is randomly allocated (among eligible applicants) is insane. America deserves better!", Brien added.Although no deadline has been announced for the proposed changes, the rule is not expected to impact next year's H-1B holders, as the programme has already reached its cap for the upcoming cycle.- EndsMust Watch
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Time of India
26 minutes ago
- Time of India
Need India AI risk framework, says academic Amlan Mohanty
As new AI tools flood the market, experts are calling for stronger self-regulation to ensure safe and responsible use, supported by risk frameworks, government backing, and industry Mohanty, an associate research fellow at the Centre for Responsible AI (CeRAI), IIT Madras, emphasised that a risk-based classification system is needed. This will determine which AI systems are 'low risk' and 'high risk,' he also a non-resident fellow at Carnegie India and Niti Aayog who previously led public policy for Google in India, added that collecting real-world data on AI-related incidents in India is crucial for developing these his recent paper, 'Making AI Self-Regulation Work – Perspectives from India on Voluntary AI Risk Mitigation', Mohanty outlined a practical policy roadmap for India, arguing that voluntary or self-regulation frameworks can help manage AI risks without stifling innovation.'My suggestion would be to introduce baseline protections for all types of AI applications, while high-risk applications should be subject to additional rules,' he told ET. If an AI application causes harm or injury to an individual's life or livelihood, it should be considered high-risk, the research explained.B Ravindran, head, Wadhwani School of Data Science, said it is important to govern AI risks throughout their life cycles.'Organisations involved in AI development should proactively embrace voluntary self-regulations to lead the AI adoption in India in a safe, ethical, and responsible manner mitigating adverse impacts on humans,' he the government has not formally proposed voluntary AI risk commitments, a draft report prepared by a committee set up by the principal scientific advisor and convened by Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY), 'AI for India-Specific Regulatory Framework,' suggests that voluntary commitments could play a key role in the early phase of AI of the key arguments in the paper is that India needs its own definition of AI-based risk classifications that are influenced by local, social and cultural factors.'Do Indians worry about AI-based surveillance the same way Europeans do? Probably not. That's why one cannot simply transpose the risk classification from the EU's AI Act to Indian law. We need to collect real-world data from local communities,' Mohanty research stressed that reporting AI-related incidents will help identify the reasons behind harms caused and assess the nature of impact, whether physical, emotional, financial, or otherwise. This evidence-led approach will be key to designing a contextual and effective AI risk classification recommend a mix of financial, technical, and regulatory incentives to encourage the adoption of voluntary AI commitments For example, companies seeking grants under the India AI Mission could be required to adopt specific AI commitments as a condition for support. Leveraging the proposed AI Safety Institute in India to shape industry behaviour, develop benchmarks, and promote the use of AI safety tools is also seen as critical. Establishing a Technical Advisory Council could provide valuable expertise to government agencies, facilitate risk assessments, and support compliance efforts, experts India's approach to AI regulation is pro-innovation, each country tailors its strategy to its own priorities. The US uses a decentralized, sector-specific approach; China emphasizes centralized information and content controls. The EU has put in place the AI Act, which imposes risk-based legal obligations.
Mint
26 minutes ago
- Mint
Stocks to trade today: Trade Brains Portal recommends two stocks for 22 July
Strong gains in banking heavyweights such as HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank helped Indian market benchmarks rebound on Monday, 21 July, snapping a two-day losing streak amid mixed global cues. The Sensex climbed 443 points, or 0.54%, to close at 82,200.34, while the Nifty 50 rose 122 points, or 0.49%, to settle at 25,090.70. The BSE Midcap index advanced 0.55%, broadly in line with the benchmarks, while the BSE Smallcap index ended flat. Against this backdrop, Trade Brains Portal has picked two stocks—one from the railway sector and another from the FMCG sector. Stocks to trade today, recommended by Trade Brains Portal for 21 July: Current price: ₹378.60 Target price: ₹480 in 16 - 24 Months Stop-loss: ₹325 Why it is recommended: RVNL was founded in 2003 to revolutionize the railway landscape in India with a focus on project implementation and the development of transportation infrastructure, such as railway lines, electrification, bridges, and more. The Department of Public Sector Enterprises (PSE) had awarded the company the title of Navratna, which denotes a large, profitable, and strategically significant PSU. To carry out projects in their respective regions, RVNL has 30 project implementation units spread across 25 locations in India. Additionally, two project units have been formed outside of India: one in Dubai and one in the Maldives. In FY25, the company's revenue was ₹19,923 crore, down 8.9% on year from ₹21,878.5 crore. Net profit fell 17.3%, from ₹1,550.87 crore to ₹1,281.5 crore. This decline was due to a delay in funding by the Ministry of Railways. They anticipate higher margins in FY26, and the turnover would be the same as the FY25 projection of ₹21,000 crore. As the company expands into new areas, such as metro maintenance, small-scale manufacturing, and international projects, the margins are expected to improve. The company is actively diversifying into long-term revenue visibility outside of the fiercely competitive EPC market. Utilizing the increasing number of metro projects around India, key priority areas are railway infrastructure and metro system operation and maintenance (O&M). Furthermore, the company has one of the key joint ventures in the development of Vande Bharat, which will begin production in June FY26, and the company anticipates positive cash inflows starting the following year. On the order book part, the company anticipates that Bharat Net orders will rise from the present order of ₹14,000 crore to ₹17,000 to ₹18,000 crore in FY26, a 20% to 25% increase. The company currently has a ₹1 lakh crore order book, of which ₹45,000 crore comes from Indian Railways and around ₹55,000 crore comes from projects that were put out to bid. Risk factors: Since RVNL is not designated as a Zonal Railway, it does not have the authority to approve plans, drawings, and other materials. As a result, delays in obtaining approval from Zonal Railways for plans, traffic blockages, etc., could affect RVNL's project development. Additionally, delays may occur due to modifications made to the Railways' approved plans during project execution. Current price: ₹ 489 Target price: ₹ 630 in 12 Months Stop-loss: ₹ 406 Why it's recommended: VBL's revenue from operations grew by 28.9% YoY to ₹5,566.9 crore in Q1 CY2025 from ₹4,317.3 crore in Q1 CY2024. Their sales volume also increased by 30.1% to reach 312.4 million cases, driven by strong organic volume growth of 15.5% in India and inorganic volume contributions from South Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo. VBL's EBITDA increased by 27.8% in Q1 CY 2025 to Rs. 1,263.96 crore. PAT increased by 33.5% to Rs. 731.4 crore in Q1 CY2025, driven by robust volume growth and lower finance costs. (Note: The company follows a January-December calendar year format.). The company has commissioned new production facilities at Kangra (Himachal Pradesh) and Prayagraj (Uttar Pradesh) and also set up backward integration facilities at the Prayagraj plant, as well as at the DRC plant in the international region. Acquired BevCo along with its wholly owned subsidiaries and SBC Beverages Ghana Limited (SBCG) in West Africa. VBL has recently entered into binding agreements to acquire a 100% stake in Tanzania and Ghana, further enhancing its African market presence. The company has also secured exclusive snacks franchising rights for PepsiCo's brands in Morocco, Zimbabwe, and Zambia, set to commence by October 2025. VBL successfully raised ₹7,500 crore through a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) for strategic acquisitions and expansions. Currently, the company's net debt stands at ₹6,000 crore, with plans to utilize the proceeds for debt reduction for is adding about 10-12% additional outlets (400,000-500,000 outlets) every year, bolstering its growth. The company owns 130+ depots, 2800+ primary distributors, and 10,000+ vehicles, and also has franchise rights in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Morocco, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. VBL is the world's second-largest PepsiCo franchisee with a market share of 72% in the carbonated segment, holding exclusive rights to manufacture and distribute PepsiCo's carbonated and non-carbonated beverages across 27 Indian states and 7 union territories. The company has 50 state-of-the-art production facilities, 38 in India & 12 international territories. Risk factors: Consistent growth in revenue and sales volumes may be affected due to fluctuations in seasonal sales that might pose a risk to the company's overall financial performance throughout the year. Further, regulations like plastic bottle bans, high sugar taxes, and FDI restrictions pose risks for Varun Beverages. Market Recap | 21 July Indian equities rebounded on Monday, led by strong gains in banking stocks after robust quarterly earnings from private sector lenders. The Nifty 50 opened at 24,999, up 31 points from Friday's close of 24,968, and steadily climbed through the day to hit an intraday high of 25,111. On the daily chart, the index traded below the 20-day EMA but held above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs. Its Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 47.63—well below the overbought threshold of 70. The BSE Sensex mirrored the Nifty's strength, opening at 81,918—up 160 points from the previous close of 81,758. Gains in HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, both rising around 2.8% after posting better-than-expected earnings, helped drive market sentiment. The Bank Nifty surged 669.75 points, or 1.2%, to close at 56,952.75. Most sectoral indices ended higher. The Nifty Finance Index led the rally, closing at 26,990, up 434.75 points or 1.64%, boosted by financial names such as: ICICI Bank (+2.8%) HDFC Bank (+2.2%) ICICI Lombard General Insurance (+2.0%) The Nifty Private Bank Index also ended strong, climbing 354.45 points, or 1.3%, to 27,888. The Nifty Services Index gained 368.10 points, or 1.1%, to settle at 33,129. Among individual stocks, InfoEdge, ICICI Bank, and Eternal rose up to 4%. On the downside, the Nifty Oil & Gas Index fell 128.80 points, or 1.09%, to close at 11,643. Reliance Industries dropped 3.14%, dragging the index lower along with Gujarat State Petronet and Gujarat Gas. The decline followed the European Union's decision to lower the price cap on Russian oil and tighten sanctions on the shadow fleet transporting it. The Nifty PSU Bank Index also underperformed, shedding 41.35 points, or 0.58%, to end at 7,121.15. Asian markets were broadly positive on Monday: Hang Seng (Hong Kong): +168.48 pts (0.67%) to 24,994.14; Kospi (South Korea): +22.74 pts (0.71%) to 3,210.81; Shanghai Composite: +25.31 pts (0.71%) to 3,559.79 As of 0440pm (India time), Dow Jones Futures were up 87.9 points, or 0.2%, trading at 44,430.09 on the US exchange. Trade Brains Portal is a stock analysis platform. Its trade name is Dailyraven Technologies Pvt. Ltd, and its Sebi-registered research analyst registration number is INH000015729. Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Mint
26 minutes ago
- Mint
Rupiah to Consolidate Before Further Gains, Citi Strategist Says
(Bloomberg) -- The Indonesian rupiah's recent gains are set to pause in the coming month before advancing to levels last seen in December, according to the currency's top forecaster. Emerging-market currencies, especially those that are high-yielding, tend to weaken for various reasons in August, said Rohit Garg, head of foreign exchange and rates strategy Asia ex-Japan for Citigroup Inc. By the end of the year, the strategist forecasts the rupiah to rally almost 2% against the dollar. 'Right now our recommendation is to stay neutral, see what happens on Aug. 1 and see how the month evolves,' said Garg, referring to US President Donald Trump's tariff deadline. 'But we are still looking at a little bit of a lower USD/IDR, closer to 16,000 than higher.' The rupiah closed at 16,311 per dollar on Monday. The rupiah is rebounding from earlier losses in the year as concerns over a global trade war and Indonesia's fiscal policy ease. Pledges to cap the nation's budget deficit below 3% of gross domestic product and plans to tap cash reserves to cover shortfalls this year have helped calm investor nerves, Garg said. The rupiah has also been benefiting from dollar weakness, driven by Trump-era trade tariffs and growing US fiscal deficits. Potentially softer data — especially in the labor market this summer — will boost expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the 'de-dollarization' theme is likely to persist, the strategist said. 'We have been long rupiah, short dollar since the middle of April,' said Garg. 'We were expecting rupiah to appreciate a fair bit and it has, but we are expecting USD/IDR to stabilize at least for the next few weeks. And it's mostly got to do with external factors than necessarily domestic factors.' Garg was the top forecaster for the rupiah in the second quarter, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. The ranking is based on criteria such as margin of error, timing and directional accuracy. More stories like this are available on
