UFC 319 odds, predictions: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev headlines a stacked card

New York Times

10 hours ago

The UFC has thrown 15 fights at us for a massive UFC 319 slate, and I'm super excited to see the card play out this weekend. I'll be breaking down the main event between Dricus Du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev for the middleweight title, as well as one other matchup below. (I'd prepped a preview of Battle vs. Ruziboev, but that fight was canceled on Friday.)
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Let me know in the comment section below if there are any other fights you'd like to chat about.
The moment is finally upon us, as Chimaev will challenge Du Plessis for the middleweight title.
Chimaev has been a star since he entered the promotion and has been booked as a future title candidate for years now. I don't think many were expecting Du Plessis to be the sitting champion, but I do believe we will get a fun matchup for as long as it lasts.
Chimaev is the dominant wrestling threat and is coming off a 3:34 victory over former champion Robert Whittaker. Many of Chimaev's matchups have been utterly dominant, and in six of his eight UFC bouts, he has allowed two or fewer significant strikes.
There are a couple that have been competitive, though, against Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns. Chimaev still won both. He traded on the feet against Burns with a heavy pace, and although he put up some solid offensive numbers, Burns lit him up as well and set career highs with his own offensive success. Against Usman, Chimaev won multiple rounds with takedowns and control, but only one of those rounds was clear. Otherwise, Usman was beating him at distance. If that had been a five-round fight, Usman likely would have won.
From a macro view, I consider Chimaev to be relatively dependent on early finishes. I do think he can fight for an extended period, but I don't love his defense or his optics, and I would expect him to be far less effective and efficient if he were forced to fight for five rounds.
Early on, though, he's a beast. He's one of the best wrestlers/grapplers in the sport, and he could probably take down every fighter in the division, which includes Du Plessis. From there, he can earn dominant control and finish the fight.
Even on the feet, Chimaev has a ton of power. We've seen him top 100 significant strikes in three rounds. He's very dangerous.
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Du Plessis has given me similar vibes of being less effective as the fight goes on, but he seems to have filled that hole in his game and has now gone the five-round distance multiple times without much issue.
Du Plessis is also very well-rounded. He lands 6.12 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.90 per minute with a 54 percent defensive rate. He's got big power and takes shots pretty well. He also lands 2.55 takedowns per 15 minutes, while defending at 50 percent. He's not a special wrestler, but he's shown the ability to land takedowns and win rounds with his grappling.
I don't think Du Plessis is a fantastic technical fighter, and I don't consider him a standout in this division, but he's very good, experienced and physical, and he has multiple paths to victory, which gives him a pretty high floor.
In this fight, my first instinct is that Chimaev will win early, or Du Plessis will win late.
Early on, I think Chimaev will land takedowns. Du Plessis hasn't really faced wrestlers, but he's given up takedowns to Whittaker, Derek Brunson and even Darren Till. Chimaev very likely gets on top of him quickly. From there, Chimaev might just win. I respect the survivability of DDP, and I wouldn't be surprised if he endured, but Chimaev is a real threat on top, and I'd be pretty surprised if he didn't make a statement in Round 1.
The issue is if Chimaev doesn't get the stoppage, will he continue to have success? By Round 3, I'd be super nervous if I were backing Chimaev, and I think it's more likely that DDP starts to take over.
So really, I do think Du Plessis is live by default. I wouldn't be shocked if he won.
Chimaev is lined at -250 on BetMGM, which I think is fair. I'd lean toward betting Chimaev to win inside the distance at -140 or better, which I think is the most likely outcome. I don't mind that number if you want to take a stab. Du Plessis, I'd only target with his ML at +200 or better, which I think is fair if you feel more comfortable with his chances.
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I won't have a heavy investment here, but I'm leaning toward another early Chimaev assault, and I'm very much looking forward to these two stepping in the Octagon on Saturday.
Coming off his first UFC loss, Prates will be looking to put his name back in the win column against seasoned striker Neal.
I haven't been the biggest supporter of Prates compared to the public, and I've tended to shy away from him at the betting window. I think Prates is a skilled boxer, and I expect him to continue to win fights, but he's not particularly high volume, and he doesn't wrestle much. He's landing 3.60 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.79 per minute with a 48 percent defensive rate.
You can argue his numbers are skewed because he got outlanded 126 to 63 by Ian Machado Garry, but I was making these points prior to that matchup. Prates only barely outlanded Neil Magny and Charles Radtke, and even Trevin Giles outlanded him 68 to 37, which is insanity.
Simply put, Prates is a very good boxer, but he's not throwing enough strikes. Additionally, Prates has only landed one takedown in six matchups, so wrestling is not a major part of his game.
Neal is a pretty straightforward kickboxer who's been in the UFC since 2018. Neal has been inconsistent and has had some health struggles. He looked awful in a matchup with Neil Magny in 2021, and he got beaten up by Stephen Thompson pretty badly in the fight prior.
Otherwise, Neal has been competitive, even with the top of the division in Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov. He has recent knockout wins over Rafael dos Anjos and Vicente Luque as well, and he whooped Belal Muhammad back in 2019.
Neal lands 5.05 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.44 per minute, and he defends at 57 percent. I don't love that he's been outstruck, but it's Thompson and Rakhmonov who are skewing that metric.
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Neal is also a pretty hard hitter and is knockout-capable. He can be hurt and occasionally knocked down, but he's only been finished once, which was by Rakhmonov in Round 3.
Neal doesn't wrestle much and only lands 0.56 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he defends well at 83 percent.
I see this as a competitive striking matchup. I highly doubt Prates will take Neal down, and Neal probably won't wrestle much himself, although he'd have the higher upside of the two.
On the feet, Prates is likely more dangerous and more likely to win by KO, but not by a huge margin. Neal might hit just as hard, and Prates has been KO'd on the regionals. Neal also throws strikes at a much higher rate, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him ahead of Prates on the numbers.
It seems likely that this fight will be super competitive, unless someone gets badly hurt. Both sides have damage upside, but both are also tough.
Prates is lined at -245 to win on some books, which feels far too wide for the matchup expectation. I think he'd need to KO Neal at a high rate to earn this number, and that doesn't seem reasonable to project.
Neal at +200 or better feels like a value. I would only label it a slight value, and I'm not super excited to bet on it, but the process feels sound enough. I don't even mind the over 2.5 rounds at +120 or better, or Neal to win by decision at +350.
I do not see Neal as a clear pick to win outright, but I do think we'll see a competitive scrap that lasts multiple rounds.
(Photo of Khamzat Chimaev: Giuseppe Cacace / AFP via Getty Images)
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