Germany searches for army recruits in dwindling pool of workers

Straits Times

7 hours ago

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Defence Minister Boris Pistorius's goal is to attract more than 110,000 conscripts by the end of the decade.
BERLIN – A Germany flush with cash to rearm against the threat from Russia is struggling to muster sufficient recruits in an already stretched jobs market.
The military revamp, following decades of neglect, is playing out as society ages and more and more people exit the workforce.
Those trends have already left firms lacking skilled staff and put officials seeking to swell the army's ranks in a bind.
While other European countries face shortfalls too, the scale of Germany's task stands out.
New Nato demands mean it must boost its regular army to as many as 260,000 from about 180,000 now, and add hundreds of thousands to a reserve that can be called on in times of crisis, according to Defence Minister Boris Pistorius.
With a separate push by Chancellor Friedrich Merz's new government to overhaul Germany's infrastructure also sapping manpower, steps are being taken to restore a version of the draft.
Analysts are also raising the possibility of bringing migrants into the armed forces.
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Mr Merz told German companies in June that personnel challenges – not funding – will be the 'decisive problem' to overcome as he strives to build the continent's strongest conventional army, calling on them to temporarily release workers so they can gain military skills.
Talk like that fuels the debate over whether the draft, which was suspended in 2011, is needed once again, with about 55 per cent of Germans backing the idea.
While the coalition government only plans a voluntary model inspired by Sweden, Mr Merz and Mr Pistorius have left the door open to restoring conscription if progress is too slow.
Mr Merz's Cabinet is expected to pass the legislation in the final week of August, so voluntary military service can be introduced by January.
Mr Pistorius's goal is to attract more than 110,000 conscripts by the end of the decade.
Behind closed doors, conservative lawmakers are pushing their Social Democrat coalition partners to toughen the draft law through a binding mechanism to bring back compulsory military service should the voluntary model fail to attract enough personnel.
There are serious doubts, however, that such an approach would yield the best results for an economy that's shrunk for the last two years and is crying out for skilled labour to help it modernise.
While unemployment has ticked up, it's expected to decline again as the government splashes hundreds of billions of euros on upgrading roads and bridges.
'From a labour-market perspective, and also for the benefit of the armed forces, we must ensure that those who are best suited to the job are the ones who go there – and not those who are better suited to other jobs,' said Mr Enzo Weber, an economist at the Institute for Employment Research.
'If we do not make good use of the qualities of our workforce, we'll suffer considerable losses.'
Mr Pistorius has acknowledged that Germany's greying population is an issue for the army, saying recently that it'll need to replace a 'wave' of retirees on top of finding new people.
But he insists any conscription-based model would only be used to increase the army's reserve, while full-time staff would have to be found through other means.
That's proved difficult in the past.
In 2024, the number of soldiers dipped below 180,000 – the lowest level since 2018, despite long-standing efforts to reach more than 200,000.
Parliament's former Commissioner for the Armed Forces, Ms Eva Hoegl, wrote in a March report that the military has for years faced 'considerable challenges in recruitment that are exacerbated by demographic change and competition on the civilian labour market.'
While forcing people to serve may seem like a cost-effective fix, researchers at the Munich-based Ifo institute warn this isn't the case.
That's because conscripts spend less time in the jobs market, delaying their education and curbing their eventual incomes.
The resulting decline in consumption, compared with a market-based system, would have 'drastic consequences for the whole economy,' they said in a 2024 paper.
'For the voluntary model to succeed, the most important thing would be to improve pay,' said Mr Panu Poutvaara, one of the study's authors. 'What would still be needed is to make sure that the army has sufficient resources also in terms of equipment, as this would make it a more attractive place to work.'
On that point, the government has cast off its fiscal shackles to allow more spending on up-to-date kit.
The army reckons 'creative social-media campaigns' and regional recruiting events have also proved successful, though that only allowed it to 'stop the negative trend' and keep soldier numbers stable in 2024.
An image makeover and a greater appreciation for the importance of defence may go some way to attracting more applicants, according to Mr Guntram Wolff, a senior fellow at the Bruegel think-tank and a professor at the Solvay Brussels School.
But with military experts warning that Russia could be ready to attack Europe in less than five years, the prospect of actual combat deployment may also act as a deterrent.
Perhaps the thorniest discussion – more so even than conscription – could yet lie ahead. Just as for the economy as a whole, immigration could help offset demographic shifts – an idea Mr Pistorius broached in 2024.
The current atmosphere toward such an idea is likely to be hostile even after a backlash against migrants prompted Mr Merz to beef up Germany's borders.
But a faster track to citizenship for migrants choosing to enlist in the army could be one way to increase recruitment, according to Mr Poutvaara.
Mr Wolff agrees, saying higher salaries alone probably wouldn't suffice.
'The labour market has been swept empty, so we need to become more open,' he said. 'We need to take the integration of migrants a lot more seriously, and that goes for the armed forces as well.' BLOOMBERG