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Modest rise in consumer confidence but households set for disposable-income boost as mortgage rates fall

Modest rise in consumer confidence but households set for disposable-income boost as mortgage rates fall

NZ Herald17-06-2025
Consumer confidence continues to tread water, but households could soon receive a back-pocket boost in the hundreds of dollars, says a Westpac economist.
The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence index rose two points to 91.2 in the June quarter.
Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said it was a modest rise
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ASB profit dips as staffing rises, $33m set aside for customer compensation
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ASB profit dips as staffing rises, $33m set aside for customer compensation

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A non-comprehensive list of things worth saving up for
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The Spinoff

time21 hours ago

  • The Spinoff

A non-comprehensive list of things worth saving up for

A bunch of people at The Spinoff (and some of our kids) on the things we've saved for. From beach trips, babies, bikes and books to plants, pants and Pokémon cards, savings goals can be smart, silly, maybe even a little bit shallow. This list covers all the bases. A mountain bike I grew up riding bikes constantly. Every weekend a neighbour friend and I rode up Makara Peak and 'did jumps' down the big concrete steps at the teachers college. But I didn't have my own bike. With eight older siblings, there was no way my parents were buying me a bike after they bought my older sister one already (I rode it more than her) and my older brother one a decade earlier (which we all learned to ride as our first bike). My friend had money, and he got a new bike seemingly every Christmas that I would beg for a turn on. So when I got a paper run in intermediate, my $120 fortnightly paycheck went to three things: hot chips, dairy lollies and saving for my own bike. 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I mopped floors and served burritos (in a restaurant that now no longer exists, rest in pieces Zambrero K Road) for three years through high school so I could finally get out of this stupid milkloving piece of shit dumbass mean spirited sale at Briscoes racist sexist 40% off deck furniture piss country and perhaps experience some culture. I remember going to a travel agent after saving my first $3,000, booking my return flights and feeling both dazed that doing something so big could be so easy, and incredibly amazed that I actually managed to get to that point after growing up with such a big scarcity mindset. Suffice to say I had the best ever time blowing my hard-earned cash on cheap piss almost every night on a two-week Contiki tour then making up for my sins with a two week solo trip checking out the art and history in Rome and Paris. 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Economy to pick up despite high inflation, experts predict
Economy to pick up despite high inflation, experts predict

RNZ News

time2 days ago

  • RNZ News

Economy to pick up despite high inflation, experts predict

Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold. Photo: Supplied / LinkedIn The economy is poised to pick up this year and the Reserve Bank is close to ending interest rate cuts, despite the prospect of higher inflation and unemployment , according to Westpac Bank economists. In their latest economic overview, they forecast better economic times on the back of continued strong agricultural exports, the effect of lower interest rates on household budgets, and less global risk and uncertainty from trade and tariffs . Chief economist Kelly Eckhold said the economy had probably stalled in the June quarter, but it would not last. "Uncertainty associated with the trade war, ongoing cost of living pressures and the still slow pass through of past OCR (official cash rate) cuts into household budgets have been weighing on activity. "Looking further ahead, the disposable incomes of mortgage holders are rising as they continue to refinance at the much lower interest rates now on offer," he said. "And with high export commodity prices also boosting incomes in the rural sector, and the government's 'Investment Boost' policy encouraging the bringing forward of investment, we expect growth in domestic spending to gather pace as this year progresses." Eckhold said globally the outlook was not as bleak as feared when the US announced its "Liberation Day" tariffs in April, because the worst case scenarios have been avoided so far. "The US tariff framework now looks clearer. New Zealand's 15 percent tariff is disappointing but manageable and it remains the case that the country that will be hurt most by tariffs is the US itself. "Despite the volatility, exporters have weathered the storm, and in many cases are successfully passing on tariff costs to their customers." He expected strong dairy and meat export prices to continue through the year, which along with improving tourism numbers would support activity. Eckhold said they expected inflation to edge higher towards the top of the 1-3 percent target band, and unemployment would also nudge up as well, but these were expected to be temporary and would start easing before the end of the year. Westpac was forecasting house prices to rise 3-4 percent this year, and by 6 percent next year, while the government was expected to keep relatively tight control on its finances as it looked to return to surplus in 2028/29. "There's a non-trivial risk that credit rating agencies might stop giving us the benefit of the doubt, increasing the stakes for fiscal management in coming years," Eckhold said. He said the Reserve Bank would make one more 25 basis point cut in the official cash rate to 3 percent next week, but then move to the sidelines. "It's probable that 3 percent will mark the low point in the current cycle provided that activity picks up as expected. The speed and strength of the recovery will determine whether further policy support is needed. "For now, we continue to ask ourselves: Are we there yet?" Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

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