Latest news with #SatishRanchhod
Scoop
6 hours ago
- Business
- Scoop
Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence June 2025
The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence index rose two points in June, taking it to a level of 91.2. That's a modest rise after the sharp fall we saw last quarter, and leaves consumer confidence a fair bit below average levels (Note: A level below 100 indicates that there are more households who are pessimistic about the economic outlook than those who are optimistic). 'It's been a bumpy and uncertain few months, and many New Zealand households are feeling nervous about the economic outlook,' said Westpac Senior Economist Satish Ranchhod. 'Domestically, economic conditions have remained mixed. At the same time, increased global tensions and the related volatility in financial markets are casting long shadows over the outlook.' 'Cost of living pressures continue to be a big concern for many households, particularly those on lower incomes,' noted Mr Ranchhod. 'Recent months have seen large increases in the cost of essentials like food and utilities. Consistent with that, many households have told us that their financial position has deteriorated over the past year.' 'However, it's not all bad news for households,' said Mr Ranchhod. 'Since mid-2024 there have been some big drops in interest rates. While it will take time for those cuts to pass through to borrowers, many households' will see a boost to their disposable incomes over the coming months. In some cases, the drop in their borrowing costs could be substantial, with some fixed mortgage rates down around 200bps compared to this time last year.' Advertisement - scroll to continue reading 'Much like the weather, confidence remains soggy right across the country. However, there are some big differences across regions,' noted Mr Ranchhod. 'Confidence remains in the doldrums in Wellington. In contrast, households are more upbeat in regions that have a strong rural backbone or tourism ties, especially in the lower South Island.' 'Looking across the different demographic groups, all but those on the highest incomes remain firmly pessimistic. Men's confidence has remained steady this June quarter, with an index score of 96.5 (a drop of 0.9 points from last quarter), while women's confidence has lifted to 86.4 (up 5 points). More women than men feel worse off financially now compared to a year ago, while men are more optimistic than women about New Zealand's short-term economic future, as well as the country's longer-term prospects,' commented Imogen Rendall, Market Research Director of McDermott Miller Limited. 'Confidence amongst younger people this quarter has taken a hit and is now on a similar level to older New Zealanders, with all age groups now firmly pessimistic,' noted Ms Rendall. 'Looking at those in paid work, confidence has increased slightly by 3.4 points this quarter up to 95.1, while those not in paid work saw almost no change from last quarter (up just 0.6 points to 85.6). One in five of those in paid work feel they are better off financially now than a year ago, compared to fewer than one in 10 of those who are not in paid work,' observed Ms Rendall. The survey was conducted over 1-12 June 2025, with a sample size of 1,550. An index number over 100 indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists. The margin of error of the survey is 2.5%. Acknowledgement The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index is owned by McDermott Miller Limited. Westpac McDermott Miller should be acknowledged as the source when citing the Consumer Confidence Survey and Index. Graphs supplied may be reproduced by the news media provided Westpac McDermott Miller is acknowledged as the source.
NZ Herald
8 hours ago
- Business
- NZ Herald
Modest rise in consumer confidence but households set for disposable-income boost as mortgage rates fall
Consumer confidence continues to tread water, but households could soon receive a back-pocket boost in the hundreds of dollars, says a Westpac economist. The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence index rose two points to 91.2 in the June quarter. Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said it was a modest rise
RNZ News
9 hours ago
- Business
- RNZ News
Consumer confidence perks up slightly
Photo: 123rf Consumers are slightly less pessimistic, but still struggling in the face of high living costs and yet to feel the benefit of lower interest rates. The Westpac McDermott Miller consumer confidence index rose two points to 91.2, but remained firmly entrenched below 100, which is regarded as pessimism. Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said it has been bumpy and uncertain, and the survey reflected nervousness about the economic outlook. "Domestically, economic conditions have remained mixed. At the same time, increased global tensions and the related volatility in financial markets are casting long shadows over the outlook." The survey showed more households reporting their own financial position had deteriorated, but there was a lift in those expecting a future improvement. All groups, except those on the highest incomes, were firmly pessimistic, although men were less downbeat than women, while there had been a notable fall in sentiment among young people. Ranchhod said households were still struggling with high living costs and were yet to get the benefit of interest rate falls. "While it will take time for those cuts to pass through to borrowers, many households will see a boost to their disposable incomes over the coming months. In some cases, the drop in their borrowing costs could be substantial, with some fixed mortgage rates down around 200 basis points compared to this time last year." He said about a third of respondents had cut back on discretionary spending, and were still not inclined to buy a big ticket item. The survey mirrored others showing the regions, especially those with strong agriculture production such as Bay of Plenty, Northland, Canterbury, and Southland, much more upbeat than the main centres. "The firmness in commodity price, especially in the dairy sector, has seen a welcome lift in earnings in many communities," Ranchhod said. "On top of that, growing numbers of international visitors will be helping to boost conditions in Queenstown and other tourism hotspots." The Bay of Plenty was the only region of the 11 to be above the 100 confidence level. However, Wellington's pessimism deepened to multi year lows. "While restraint in government spending will be one reason for that weakness, it's not the only reason ... households in Wellington have faced some tough financial conditions in recent years," Ranchhod said. He said Wellington was neither benefiting from high commodity prices nor the rise in international tourism.
Business Recorder
a day ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Australia, NZ dollars take a breather after upside breaks
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars were just short of fresh highs on Tuesday as another bout of Middle East risk aversion swept markets, though both currencies found strong chart support to lean on. Hopes for a quick ceasefire were dashed by news of another round of Israeli air strikes on Iran, spooking investors and hitting equities while boosting oil prices. There was also speculation the United States was striking Iran itself, but these were quickly denied by the White House. The Aussie is highly correlated to global risk plays and took a quick fall, before steadying at $0.6530. That was off a seven-month top of $0.6552 reached overnight, while major support now lies around $0.6500 and $0.6463. The kiwi dollar held at $0.6066, having scored an eight-month peak at $0.6088 on Monday. It has solid support around $0.5996. Both were aided by gains on the yen as the Bank of Japan confirmed market speculation by slowing its bond tapering plans, albeit only from March next year. That should help relieve upward pressure on Japanese bond yields, at least at the margin, and helped lift the Aussie to 94.57 yen. Australia, New Zealand dollars vulnerable as Israel-Iran conflict escalates A break of 94.75 yen resistance would take it to the highest since mid-May. In New Zealand, data showed annual growth in food prices picked up to a 17-month high of 4.4% in May, a blow to hopes for a further slowdown in overall inflation. That led analysts at Westpac to revise up their forecast for second-quarter inflation to 0.6%, from 0.4%, which would lift that annual pace to 2.8% from 2.5%. 'Importantly, it looks increasingly likely that inflation will rise back to the top of the RBNZ's target band before year end,' noted Satish Ranchhod, a senior economist at Westpac. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already signalled it is near an end to its aggressive easing campaign and a higher reading on inflation would likely add to the case against further cuts. Markets are pricing only a 16% chance of a cut in July, but that rises to 68% for August.
NZ Herald
14-05-2025
- Business
- NZ Herald
Retail spending flat in April as Kiwis keep wallets closed
Durables also reported a slight increase in spending, with spending in the category up 0.1% or $0.9m. Reflecting the wider retail industry players reporting tough winter apparel sales, spending in the category declined in April, down by 1.9% or $6m. Services, including repair and maintenance, personal care, funeral and other personal services reported a spending decline of 0.3% or $1.1m. Spending in the non-retail (excluding services) category also decreased in April, down by 1.5% or $33m compared to March. That category included medical and other healthcare spending, travel and tour arrangements, postal and courier delivery and other non-retail industries. The total value of electronic card spending, including the two non-retail categories (services and other non-retail), decreased from March by 0.2% or $18m. In actual terms, cardholders made 158 million transactions across all industries in April 2025, with an average value of $55 per transaction. The total amount spent using electronic cards was $8.7 billion. Wallets closed Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said Kiwis were still hesitant to spend despite falls in interest rates. 'In part, some of the softness in spending was due to falls in petrol prices, with fuel spending down 2% over the month. However, that fall in fuel prices should have put more money back into people's pockets to spend elsewhere,' Ranchhod said. He said spending on groceries had continued to rise in the month, up 0.5%. However, Ranchhod is confident that spending will increase towards the later half of the year. 'Today's soft result reinforces the picture of subdued domestic demand in the early part of the year. 'Around half of all mortgages will come up for repricing over the next six months, and many borrowers will be able to refix at much lower rates. 'The related increases in disposable income levels is set to boost spending from mid-year.'
