Gold touches over one-week low after US court blocks Trump's tariffs
[BENGALURU] Gold hit a more than one-week low on Thursday (May 29), as the US dollar rallied and risk sentiment improved after a US federal court blocked US President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs from going into effect. Spot gold was down 0.5 per cent at US$3,262.99 an ounce, as at 0057 GMT, its lowest since May 20. US gold futures dropped 1.1 per cent to US$3,259.50. A US trade court on Wednesday blocked Trump's tariffs from going into effect, ruling that the president overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from nations that sell more to the United States than they buy. The White House quickly appealed the decision, and could take it all the way to the Supreme Court if needed, but in the meantime, it offered some hope that Trump might back away from the highest tariff levels he had threatened. The US dollar index jumped 0.5 per cent to a more than one-week high, making greenback-priced gold more expensive for other currency holders, while US Treasury yields also rose. Asian shares and Wall Street futures climbed in Asia on Thursday. US Federal Reserve officials at their May 6 to 7 meeting acknowledged possible 'difficult tradeoffs' ahead, with rising inflation and unemployment, and warned about growing recession risks, according to meeting minutes on Wednesday. Investors now await US GDP data later in the day, followed by Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures numbers and comments from US central bank officials for more cues on interest rates. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.34 per cent to 925.61 metric tonnes on Wednesday from 922.46 tonnes on Tuesday. Elsewhere, spot silver eased 0.2 per cent to US$32.93 an ounce, platinum was steady at US$1,074.90 and palladium edged 0.3 per cent higher to US$964.75. REUTERS
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Straits Times
an hour ago
- Straits Times
Trade tensions, political uncertainty dim air travel outlook; record traveller forecast trimmed
Iata said airline net profits are projected to be US$36 billion (S$46.4 billion) in 2025, up from US$32.4 billion in 2024. PHOTO: ST FILE NEW DELHI – Trade tensions and a decline in consumer confidence amid political and economic uncertainty have dented projected demand for air travel. While airlines are expected to carry a record 4.99 billion travellers in 2025 – 4 per cent more than in 2024 – this latest forecast falls short of the 5.22 billion projected by the International Airport Transport Association (Iata) in December 2024. Still, airlines are expected to turn in higher profits despite the headwinds. Iata, a global trade body represent ing more than 350 carriers, said airline net profits are projected to be US$36 billion (S$46.4 billion) in 2025, up from US$32.4 billion in 2024 but slightly below the earlier forecast of US$36.6 billion for 202 5. Net profit margins are also expected to rise to 3.7 per cent in 2025, up from 3.4 per cent in 2024. Iata director-general Willie Walsh said 2025 will be a better year for airlines, even with the significant uncertainties in global markets in the first half of the year. 'Considering the headwinds, it's a strong result that demonstrates the resilience that airlines have worked hard to fortify,' he added. The Asia-Pacific is the largest air travel market, Iata said, and passenger demand in the region is expected to be strong given the relaxation in visa requirements in several Asian countries such as China, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand. However, the association noted economic challenges as gross domestic product forecasts for the region, especially for China, have been revised down wards . Mr Walsh said the biggest positive driver on the profitability front has been the 13 per cent fall in jet fuel prices. Strong employment and moderating inflation projections are also expected to keep air travel demand growing, even if not as fast as previously projected. An Iata poll in April found that a large majority of travellers expect to travel as much or more in the next 12 months. While 73 per cent of respondents expect to be personally affect ed by trade tensions, 65 per cent said this will not change their travel habits. Of the business travellers polled, 68 per cent expect to travel more to visit customers amid the trade tensions. Iata said passenger yields – a measure of how much airlines earn per passenger and a proxy for air fares – will fall 4 per cent in 2025, reflecting lower oil prices and strong competition within the industry. The average return airfare in 2025 is expected to be US$374, down from an earlier projection of US$380 and below the 2024 average of US$387. Supply chain issues that have plagued the airline industry since the pandemic are expected to persist in 2025, and could continue until the end of the decade, Iata said. It pointed to the backlog of aircraft deliveries, which have exceeded 17,000, implying a wait time of 14 years. This has had a negative impact on airlines, driving up aircraft leasing costs and reducing the efficiency of fleet usage. Iata also warned that moves to remove aircraft from tariff exemptions could aggravate supply chain constraints and production limits. Said Mr Walsh: 'Manufacturers continue to let their airline customers down. Every airline is frustrated that these problems have persisted so long.' Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Business Times
an hour ago
- Business Times
ECB expected to cut rates again as Trump trade war rumbles on
[FRANKFURT] The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to deliver its seventh-straight interest rate cut this week as US President Donald Trump's volatile trade policies add to headwinds for the sluggish eurozone. Even before Trump unleashed his on-off tariff onslaught on the world, the ECB had been bringing borrowing costs down as inflation eased. Worries about sluggish performance in the 20 countries that use the euro have increasingly overshadowed inflation concerns as higher rates have pinched businesses and households. Trump's tariffs have added to the sense of urgency. Europe is in the US president's crosshairs over its hefty surplus in traded goods with the United States, stoking fears about a heavy hit to the continent's exporters. Predicting a cut when the ECB's governing council meets on Thursday (Jun 5), HSBC said the eurozone's 'near-term outlook has deteriorated on the recent US tariffs announcements and related uncertainty'. Analysts expect another quarter-point reduction that would take the Frankfurt-based institution's key deposit rate to 2 per cent. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up But observers believe the June cut could be the final one in the current streak, with the ECB likely to pause at its next meeting in July to take stock of the latest economic developments. The ECB's series of cuts stands in contrast to the US Federal Reserve, which has kept rates on hold recently amid fears that Trump's levies could stoke inflation. Global order 'fracturing' Trump has already hit the EU with multiple waves of tariffs – it currently faces a 10 per cent 'baseline' levy as well as 25 per cent duties on cars, steel and aluminium. He has paused even higher rates on the EU and other trading partners to allow for talks, momentarily easing some of the tensions that had roiled global markets. But in a sign the trade war may be far from over, he threatened last month to swiftly impose a 50 per cent tariff on the EU – only to delay the move a few days later to Jul 9. Highlighting the alarm felt in Europe, ECB president Christine Lagarde said last week that the global economic order backed by US leadership was 'fracturing'. 'Multilateral cooperation is being replaced by zero-sum thinking and bilateral power plays,' she said in a speech in Berlin. But the ECB faces a tricky task in protecting the eurozone from the mercurial US president's trade policies while keeping inflation stable. Euro-area inflation was 2.2 per cent in April, slightly above the ECB's 2 per cent target and higher than expected. May's inflation estimate will be published by Eurostat on Tuesday ahead of the ECB meeting. But most recent signs suggest price pressures are easing faster than previously thought, and the ECB is expected to cut its inflation predictions when it releases its own new economic forecasts on Thursday. Downward pressure Most analysts expect Trump's tariffs to add to downward pressure on eurozone inflation, particularly as it might lead China – facing the highest US levies – to redirect inexpensive manufactured goods to Europe. The ECB is expected to cut its growth estimates on Thursday due to the impact of the trade war, after the EU slashed its forecasts last month. While investors will be on the lookout for any clues from Lagarde about the ECB's next move, analysts warn that heightened uncertainty means she will give little away. The meeting will likely also produce questions over the future next moves for Lagarde. The former head of the World Economic Forum Klaus Schwab told The Financial Times last week that he had spoken with Lagarde about her taking over as head of the organisation. The ECB brushed away the rumours, saying Lagarde was 'determined' to see out her term at the helm of the central bank. AFP


CNA
an hour ago
- CNA
Global airlines trim 2025 profit forecast over trade tensions and supply woes
NEW DELHI :Global airlines shaved a key forecast for 2025 industry-wide profits on Monday, blaming trade tensions and declining consumer confidence, while hitting out at "unacceptable" delays in jetliner deliveries that have hindered their growth plans. The IATA industry body now expects global airlines to post a combined profit of $36.0 billion this year, down slightly from a previous forecast of $36.6 billion in December, before U.S. President Donald Trump took office. He has since launched a trade war and tightened enforcement of U.S. border controls. But airline profits are still set to rise from $32.4 billion last year, helped by lower oil prices and record passenger numbers. The International Air Transport Association issued the widely watched forecasts, which give clues to the wider economy, at an annual meeting of its more than 300 member airlines in New Delhi. "Earning a $36 billion profit is significant. But that equates to just $7.20 per passenger per segment," IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in a statement. That is a thin buffer against any future demand shocks or taxes as the industry returns to a more normal regime after a sharp bounceback in air travel from the pandemic, he said. Strong employment and easing inflation are expected to push revenues up 1.3 per cent compared to last year. But airlines will have to wait a little longer to hit the $1 trillion mark after IATA trimmed its prior forecast for industry-wide revenues by 2.1 per cent to $979 billion, which would still be an all-time record. Trump's sweeping tariffs have stoked fears of an economic slowdown and squeezed discretionary spending, prompting many consumers especially in the United States to delay or scale back travel plans. Meanwhile, aircraft delivery delays have hampered airlines' ability to meet soaring travel demand in certain regions, while driving up operating costs as carriers are forced to keep older jets in service or pay more for the dwindling number of available spare parts. "It's been something that has frustrated everybody, particularly airlines who are waiting to take delivery of aircraft or have aircraft sitting on the ground that they'd love to see in service,' Walsh told Reuters in an interview. In a statement on the new outlook, Walsh called predictions of delays throughout this decade "off-the-chart unacceptable". Total expenses for the industry are forecast to reach $913 billion in 2025, up 1.0 per cent from 2024 but below earlier projections of $940 billion, as lower fuel prices help offset rising aircraft maintenance costs. IATA predicted that cargo revenues would drop 4.7 per cent to $142 billion in 2025, mainly due to reduced global economic growth and trade-dampening protectionist measures, including tariffs. Amid a tug of war over who should absorb the tariffs, Walsh recognised that some manufacturers would be tempted to pass them on to their customers, but warned this would also push up fares.