Fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Bench Shota Imanaga vs. Yankees and more THE BAT X insights

New York Times

07-07-2025

Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions.
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THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve.
This week's iteration suggests targeting Mike Trout, streaming reliever Bryan King, and benching Shota Imanaga against the New York Yankees. And there's more — so much more. Let's get to it.
Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty's explainer.
For first-time readers, we compare players' year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you'll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league.
For example, Agustín Ramírez (an analyst darling) is valued at $12.30 to this point in the season but is projected to have a value of $22.20 from this point forward. Since Miami's catcher Ramírez first made this list, his rostered percentage has increased, and this might be your last chance to grab him off waivers. He has power with an expected slugging percentage of .510 (85th percentile) and Hard-Hit and Barrel rates above the 74th percentile. On the season, Ramírez has 13 home runs, a .241 batting average (with an xBA of .278) and an OPS of .750, which THE BAT X thinks will improve in the second half.
On the pitching side, recently activated Brandon Woodruff is the only somewhat available pitcher with a rest-of-season value over $10. The Brewers' righty won't be available in all (or many) leagues, but he won his first start against the Miami Marlins, allowing two hits and one run (a homer) while striking out eight in six innings. He'll head into his second start with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.33 WHIP.
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Reliever Cade Smith, with a ROS value of $5.20, is much more available, and he's 2-3 with three saves and a 3.19 ERA, and there's a lot to like in his Statcast metrics. His xERA is 2.58, and his K% is an incredible 36.1 (97th percentile), with a Whiff rate of 35.7 (95th percentile). He had a rough outing last time out, giving up four earned runs in the 10th inning, but THE BAT X thinks he can bounce back and have a decent finish to the year.
Like the waiver wire, fades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. Many talented players, who you could very well hold based on roster construction, are on this list. However, the point is that their success is projected to drop off; due to their YTD performance, they could be valuable trade bait and get you a higher return than their actual worth. Max Muncy tops this list after being diagnosed with a bone bruise on his left knee that's expected to sideline him for six weeks.
But Jacob Wilson and Geraldo Perdomo are great examples. You could choose to roll with these two, believing in their performances to date, or you could capitalize on how they've done and flip them for players with more proven success and a better, higher-valued toolkit. I actually believe in these players and their for-average hitting; however, they lack power upside. So, if your team lacks power, you could consider/try shipping either of these two for a proven power hitter.
Last week, Eric D. commented, 'The concept is — here is the data/analysis, make your own decisions,' which I thought was a succinct description of what we're doing here. THE BAT X has a proven track record as one of the most accurate projection systems, and we're showing you what it's seeing. Look at your roster and team needs, check the data and make decisions accordingly.
According to THE BAT X projection system, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. Last week, we discussed Andrew Abbott; since then, his YTD value has dropped over $5, and his ROS value has decreased from $-9.90 to $-11.10. The projections suggest it might be time to see what return you can get for the Reds' lefty.
Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. You might want these players on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the 'Fade or Trade' list above and see if there are deals to be made. The names on this list are well-known, but these players haven't yet lived up to their previous or expected success, meaning you may be able to acquire them for a good value, and any of them could help you greatly in the second half of the season.
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One look at Mike Trout's Statcast metrics shows the potential for a strong rest-of-season. He's in the 90th percentile or above in xwOBA, xSLG, Barrel%, Hard-Hit, LA Sweet Spot% (100th), Chase% and BB%. His problem: He's striking out too much, at a rate of 27.6%, but that could decrease to at least his career average of 22.2%, which is still not stellar, but even a 5% decline will boost his category stats.
The same goes for pitching. These are established pitchers who've been underperforming expectations and could be acquired for less than their worth. Logan Gilbert returned from the IL on June 16 following an elbow injury and hasn't completed six innings since; however, he's striking out plenty of batters. His 36.8 K% is the highest of his career, while his other season stats align with his career averages.
Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. Roman Anthony tops this list, and Boston's No. 1 prospect is hitting .286 in five July games, compared to .210 in June. Adapting to the majors takes a little time, and he could be hitting his stride.
Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have overperformed in the past 30 days, according to wOBA and xwOBA.
While Brooks Lee is available on waivers and had a solid June performance (leading to more pickups), his Statcast metrics are BLUE, and his July has been dismal. Leave him where he is; a little luck elevated his June stats.
The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Jonathan Aranda has had a slow start to July, but his xwOBA suggests this is primarily due to bad luck. He's having a breakout year, perhaps due to finally seeing regular playing time — he's on pace for almost 600 plate appearances. He's hitting the ball hard and maintaining an incredible .320 average and .879 OPS. There's no need to worry yet.
Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. For the first time in a long time, the Dodgers didn't make the list, and instead the Mets and Braves secured the top two spots. New York's Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and All-Star snub Juan Soto could be in for better weeks than usual. For Atlanta, Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna, along with struggling Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II, could also see improved stats across the board.
The top one-start pitchers list is limited to players rostered at 50% or less. Two-start pitchers for the week are ranked based on THE BAT X's projection system, and the list excludes those with a projected negative value.
Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello are solid streaming options when they face the below-lowly Rockies this week. Bello is more available than Giolito and is 4-3 with a 3.42 ERA. His expected stats are worse than his actual ones, but that might not matter much against Colorado.
At the top of the two-start pitchers list is Jacob DeGrom, who could substantially help his fantasy teams in weekly lineup leagues. Lower on the list, Will Warren, also a waiver target, gets two starts this week. He's not an ace, and his 5.02 ERA is uninspiring, but his xERA is 3.64, which plays into THE BAT X projecting him for a stronger finish to the year.
This week, THE BAT X suggests considering benching Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga when he faces the Yankees. While he's 5-2 with a 2.78 ERA, his xERA is 4.12, and he carries an 18.7 K% (26th percentile). His groundball percentage is in the third percentile, which leaves him susceptible to home runs and pulled fly balls. He's still a pitcher you want in your lineup most days, but maybe not against the hard-hitting Yankees.
Based on matchups, Houston's bullpen is projected to do well against Cleveland and Texas. Josh Hader, the team's saves leader with 25, is rostered everywhere. Bryan King, however, is only 8% rostered. He's pitched 36 innings for the Astros and is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA. He has 41 strikeouts on the season and a walk rate in the 88th percentile, along with a 3.0 Barrel% (97th percentile) and a 31.3 Hard-Hit% (95th percentile). If you need a reliever, King might fit the bill this week.
THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics.
(Photo of Shota Imanaga: Griffin Quinn / Getty Images)