UAE fuel prices July 2025: Will falling global oil cut petrol and diesel rates?

Time of India

24-06-2025

Falling Brent crude prices near $69 a barrel and easing Middle East tensions are raising expectations of lower petrol and diesel rates in the UAE for July 2025/ (Representational Image)
The United Arab Emirates is expected to announce retail fuel prices for July 2025 by June 30, as part of its monthly pricing update. Since deregulating fuel prices in 2015, the UAE has tied domestic petrol and diesel costs to international oil market trends.
These monthly revisions are closely watched by residents, as they directly affect commuting costs and household budgets.
In June 2025, prices held steady compared to May, with a slight drop in diesel:
Super 98 petrol: Dh2.58 per litre
Special 95 petrol: Dh2.47 per litre
E-Plus 91 petrol: Dh2.39 per litre
Diesel: Dh2.45 per litre (down from Dh2.52 in May)
The highest fuel prices this year were recorded in February, while April marked the lowest.
Global oil prices have declined sharply, prompting speculation that UAE fuel prices could follow suit in July. Brent crude, the international benchmark, is currently trading near $69 per barrel, down more than 7% this week alone.
This drop comes despite a recent flare-up between Israel and Iran that briefly pushed prices higher. However, both nations appear to be de-escalating the situation. The critical Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil supply passes, remains open and unaffected.
Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, noted:
'The geopolitical risk premium built up since the first Israeli strike on Iran has entirely vanished.'
Analysts say that markets are now shifting focus from geopolitical risks to fundamentals like supply and demand. There is a growing expectation of an oil surplus in the second half of 2025, driven by softening global demand and increasing production.
OPEC+, the oil-producing alliance that includes the UAE and Saudi Arabia, is scheduled to meet on July 6. According to Robert Rennie of Westpac, the group may agree to increase production by another 400,000 barrels per day starting in August. Rennie added:
'As global production rises and demand wanes, we will see prices probing the $60–$65 range.'
Such dynamics may reinforce the current downward pressure on global oil prices.
If the global oil trend continues, UAE motorists may see lower fuel prices in July. While local petrol rates also reflect refining and distribution costs, the country's pricing system remains strongly tied to Brent crude movements.
That said, any potential relief at the pump could still be influenced by:
The outcome of the July 6 OPEC+ meeting
The stability of the Israel-Iran situation
Broader global economic demand trends
The official July prices will be announced by Emarat, the UAE's federal petroleum company, on the final day of June. Until then, residents are advised to stay informed as international developments continue to influence the outlook for local fuel costs.