Stocks and dollar cautiously welcome latest US-China trade detente

Zawya

a day ago

LONDON/SYDNEY - Stock markets and the dollar gave a guarded welcome on Wednesday to the latest signs of progress in trade talks between the United States and China, while waiting for more detail of what was decided and whether it would stick for long.
Bond investors were also hunkered down for a reading on U.S. inflation that could show the early impact of tariffs on prices, and a Treasury auction that will test demand for the country's debt.
In London, negotiators from Washington and Beijing said they had "agreed a framework on trade" that would be taken back to their leaders.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the implementation plan should result in restrictions on rare earths and magnets being resolved, but again offered no specifics.
"Even though details are scant, as long as the two sides are talking, I think markets will be happy," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
"It will still be very hard and it will take a long time for both sides to reach a comprehensive trade agreement," she said. "That sort of comprehensive deal usually takes years to be reached, so I'm sceptical that a framework reached at the meeting in London will be comprehensive."
The law was another hurdle as a federal appeals court allowed President Donald Trump's most sweeping tariffs to remain in effect on Tuesday while it reviews a lower court decision blocking them.
Billionaire Elon Musk also said he regrets some of the posts he made last week about Trump, opening the way to a healing of an abrupt rift that has roiled Washington and hurt shares in Musk's Tesla.
Investors in U.S. stocks, who have been badly burned by trade turmoil before, remained cautious, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both down 0.2%.
Asian and European shares were slightly more positive, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 0.6% and the STOXX benchmark for major European shares gaining 0.14%.
AUCTION ANGST
The reaction in currency markets was equally muted, with the dollar strengthening slightly against the Japanese yen to trade at 145.05. The euro edged down 0.1% to $1.1422 , nudging the dollar index up to 99.091.
Bond investors also waited for an auction of $39 billion in 10-year notes later in the day, anxious to see if foreign buyers turn up. 10-year Treasury yields were little changed at 4.4898%.
Concerns about huge U.S. budget deficits and debt have combined with unease over the White House's erratic trade policies to make investors demand a higher term premium for holding Treasuries.
Data on U.S. consumer prices for May might also show some initial upward pressure from tariffs, though analysts assume it will take a few months to fully show in the series.
Median forecasts are for the headline consumer price index to rise 0.2% and the core 0.3%, which would nudge the annual rates up to 2.5% and 2.9%, respectively.
Anything higher would be a setback to hopes for more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and could see bonds sell off. Markets imply little chance the Fed will ease at its meeting next week or in July, but have priced around a 60% chance of a move in September.
In commodity markets, gold gained 0.6% to $3,345 an ounce .
Oil prices edged up towards a seven-week high as markets assessed the outcome of the U.S.-China trade talks.
Brent crude futures rose 9 cents to $66.96 a barrel, while U.S. crude was up 18 cents to $65.16.
(Reporting by Wayne Cole and Lawrence White; Editing by Christopher Cushing, Kim Coghill and Tomasz Janowski)