Europeans to test Iran's appetite for nuclear compromise as sanctions loom
The three European countries, along with China and Russia, are the remaining parties to a 2015 deal - from which the U.S. withdrew in 2018 - that lifted sanctions on Iran in return for restrictions on its nuclear programme.
Friday's talks between senior diplomats from the so-called E3 group and Iran's negotiating team will be held in Istanbul.
The United States held five rounds of talks with Iran prior to its airstrikes in June, which U.S. President Donald Trump, said had "obliterated" a programme that Washington and its ally Israel say is aimed at acquiring a nuclear bomb. Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon.
European and Iranian diplomats say there is no prospect of Iran re-engaging with the U.S. at the negotiating table for now.
But the Europeans say negotiations must be revived due to a halt in inspections of nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and as an October 18 deadline for the expiration of the 2015 deal draws closer.
They also want answers over the location of 400 kg (880 pounds) of near-weapons grade highly enriched uranium, whose whereabouts have not been known since last month's strikes.
"We are determined to do everything to reach a diplomatic solution," German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told a press conference in Paris on July 18.
Under the terms of the U.N. Security Council resolution enshrining the 2015 deal, U.N. sanctions could be reimposed before the agreement expires - a process that would take about 30 days.
The E3, who do not want to lose leverage by letting the deal expire, have warned that unless there is a new nuclear accord they will launch the "snapback mechanism", which would restore all previous U.N. sanctions on Iran, including on the oil, banking and defence sectors.
With Russia - an ally of Iran - taking over the Security Council presidency in October, the three European countries have signalled that the latest window to reactivate the sanctions would be the end of August.
Three European, one regional and an Iranian diplomat said the meeting in Istanbul would focus primarily on the issue of the snapback mechanism.
They said the E3 would float the possibility to Iran of extending the snapback mechanism by up to six months.
In return, Iran would need to make commitments on key issues, including eventual talks with Washington, full cooperation with the IAEA, and accounting for its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Speaking to reporters at the U.N. on Wednesday, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, who will be in Istanbul, said Tehran had agreed to allow a technical team from the IAEA to visit in the coming weeks.
He warned that a triggering of the snapback mechanism would be met with a strong response from Tehran. It has previously threatened to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) over the issue.
Gharibabadi added that he had heard about the possibility of an extension.
"That's very premature now to discuss the issue of the extension. We have almost about three months actually, till the deadline of 18th of October," he said.
A Trump administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. was "coordinated" with the E3 when asked whether Washington was discussing the reimposition of sanctions with them, but declined to elaborate.
Israel's Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer was in Paris on Thursday and due to meet French officials for talks on various subjects, including Iran, four sources said.
Israel launched the attacks on Iran saying it wanted to remove any chance of its arch-foe developing nuclear weapons.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Daily Mail
35 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Pensioners up to £800 worse off after one year of Labour, new analysis finds, as charities warn elderly are 'squeezed in a vice of ever-escalating household bills'
Pensioners are up to £800 worse off after just one year of a Labour government, the Mail can reveal. Soaring household bills and the removal of the winter fuel payment have twice outstripped this year's state pension increase, leaving OAPs feeling the pinch. Last night charities warned that the elderly were being 'squeezed in a vice of ever-escalating household bills' - with inflation still soaring. Exclusive analysis by the Tories for this newspaper found energy bills have risen by £152 for a typical household since July last year, despite Labour pledging to bring them down. Council tax is set to rise by £109 for the average Band D property this year, while the cost of groceries and takeaways for households has jumped by an average of £210 a year. Changes to winter fuel payments cost millions of pensioners on average £125, though Labour has vowed to reinstate the benefit for the majority by this winter. Water bills have also risen by an average of £123 per year, while phone bills are up £46, broadband by £36, and car tax up £5 for the standard rate, the analysis found. In total, the figures suggested the average pensioner household is £806 worse off this financial year than last. At the same time, the basic state pension increased by just £361.40. But the Government said the figures were 'speculative' and did not consider other benefits such as the Warm Homes Discount, which provides rebates to low-income households. Conservative shadow chancellor Mel Stride told the Mail: 'Labour's cost-of-living crisis is hitting pensioners hard. 'In just one year, pensioners have been left £806 worse off - paying more for energy, water, council tax, and even their phone and broadband bills. 'And millions also had to get through the winter with less support after Labour took away their Winter Fuel Payments. 'After a lifetime of work, our pensioners deserve security in retirement. But Labour's choices are leaving them behind.' Dennis Reed, director of Silver Voices, said the analysis showed April's state pension increase had been 'dwarfed' by bill hikes. He told the Mail: 'When the anti-pensioner brigade attacked the 4.1per cent Triple Lock rise in April, we warned that the increase would be more than eaten up by the series of price hikes that month. 'These statistics reveal a situation much worse than that, with price rises more than double the state pension increases for most pensioners.' Figures published last month showed UK inflation rose to a near 18-month high in June as food prices surged for the third month running. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said Consumer Prices Index inflation rose to 3.6per cent in June, up from 3.4per cent in May and the highest since January 2024. Caroline Abrahams, Age UK charity director, said the triple lock is 'so important' while bills are soaring. She said: 'Everyone on a low fixed income will have felt the impact of rising costs over the last year, including older people whose main or only source of funds is the State Pension. 'Sustaining a decent quality of life in this situation is really hard and this is why the triple lock is so important: without it, in combination with the Government's decision to restore Winter Fuel Payment for most pensioners, significant numbers would have found themselves in dire financial straits.' A Government spokeswoman said: 'These figures are speculative and do not take into account other benefits such as the Warm Homes Discount, keeping prescription charges low and capping bus fares. 'Thanks to our commitment to the Triple Lock, millions of pensioners will see their State Pension rise by £1,900 and following our biggest ever campaign to boost Pension Credit take-up, nearly 60,000 extra pensioners are receiving financial support worth up to £4,300 a year. 'On top of this, nine million pensioners will receive a Winter Fuel Payment this year to support them during the colder months.' Pensioners could be even worse off next year if they become liable to pay tax on their state pension. The personal allowance – the level at which income becomes taxable – is stuck at £12,570 at least until 2028, with ministers refusing to rule out extending the freeze further. Higher-than-expected wage growth means the state pension is on track to breach the threshold next year if average earnings continue to grow at their current rate. Under the triple-lock system, the state pension increases by the rate of inflation, annual earnings growth or 2.5 per cent – whichever is the highest.
Daily Mail
2 hours ago
- Daily Mail
Opinion: Reeves sells Britain short
Updated: The last Chancellor to back an overseas takeover of a British listed company was Conservative Philip Hammond when SoftBank swallowed Arm Holdings in 2016 in the aftermath of Brexit. That went badly for Britain's leading smart-chip designer, which is now quoted in New York. Admittedly, pension consolidator Just Group is not a tech pioneer. But it is a London-quoted company which has accumulated £27billion in pension fund assets, serving some 500 smaller firms. It is a key player in a sector where the UK's biggest insurers Legal & General and Aviva are leaders. So, it is somewhat bizarre to hear Rachel Reeves trumpeting the £2.4billion takeover by Brookfield as reinforcing her narrative that Britain is good for business. Doubtless the big 75 per cent premium to Just Group's share price will be irresistible to shareholders, which include several heavyweight UK fund managers such as Schroder and Baillie Gifford. Brookfield is pledging to merge Just with its own pensions' buyout operation Blumont and keep headquarters in London. At a time, however, when the Chancellor is busy shredding the City rulebooks to attract and keep listings in London, her support is an own goal. Brookfield may well be an investor in London – it is the owner of Canary Wharf – but it is effectively a private equity outfit that buys and sells assets, and uses a debt financing model. Power booster Several prominent UK listed companies are going through transition. Unilever, under the gaze of activist Nelson Peltz, is retreating from food to focus more on personal care and beauty. It is ironic that its best-performing business – ice cream, where sales are soaring – is heading for a listing in Amsterdam. Miner Anglo American is another company rapidly changing shape with a focus on copper. It is struggling with the disposal of 'diamonds are forever' De Beers. Despite De Beers' grand brand it is suffering from a price drop for sparklers, partly caused by the prevalence of lab-grown diamonds. Critically, the relationship between De Beers and Botswana, which owns 15pc of the equity, is deteriorating, amid a threat to take full control of a strategic asset. Then there is Rolls-Royce. Since 'Turbo' Tufan Erginbilgic took the controls in January 2023 the turnaround has been nothing short of astonishing. The stock (which I hold) has rocketed by more than ten times, taking its valuation past £90billion. It has gone from near insolvency in the pandemic to being a national champion. Markets have discovered Rolls is in most of the world's fastest-growing industrial sectors. Problems with the Trent 1000 engine have been overcome. Demand for its power generation systems is surging as the AI revolution drives demand for data centres. And when next generation Small Modular Reactors come on stream Rolls has first mover advantage in the nuclear energy sector. Erginbilgic has high hopes of becoming a bigger player in engines for jets, worth a potential $1.6trillion. But Rolls faces subsidised competition from GE and Pratt & Whitney owner RTX. As defence budgets across Europe expand, Rolls' nuclear propulsion for submarines and engines for fighter aircraft and weaponry will share in the spoils. Investor enthusiasm is no flash in the pan. Cuckoo-land Microsoft has joined Nvidia in the $4trillion club. Britain is clearly helping. A final report by the Competition & Markets Authority (CMA) found that Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services have an iron grip on the £10.5billion cloud computing sector – each with stakes of 30 to 40 per cent. The CMA wants more competitive prices, easier switching for users and innovation. Little chance of that from a Government that has embraced the tech giants despite avoidance of their fair share of UK taxes.
Reuters
2 hours ago
- Reuters
Russian rouble expected to weaken by 20% in next 12 months, poll shows
MOSCOW, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble is expected to weaken to 100 against the U.S. dollar in the next 12 months, a 20% decline from its current level, according to a Reuters poll of 14 analysts on Friday, with potential new U.S. sanctions viewed as a major factor influencing the currency. U.S. President Donald Trump has said he will impose new sanctions on Moscow and countries that buy its energy exports - of which the biggest are China and India - unless Russia shows progress by August 8 towards a peace settlement in Ukraine. "The behaviour of the rouble in August will largely be influenced by the specific content of the sanctions measures that Washington plans to implement against the Kremlin," said Finam analyst Alexander Potavin. The rouble dropped 4.3% between July 24 and July 30 on Trump's threats but has since regained much of that ground to trade at around 80 on Friday. Analysts expected the currency to weaken to 83 to the dollar in 30 days from now. "If the sanctions announced by Donald Trump against Russia turn out to be severe and are implemented, the Russian economy and financial market could face a new, profound impact," Potavin added. Most analysts have regarded the Russian rouble as overvalued in recent months and have been saying that it needs to weaken. The Kremlin says that Russia has acquired immunity to sanctions thanks to long experience. In the previous monthly poll, analysts saw the rouble weakening to 98.25 against the dollar in 12 months. The inflation rate, which is subsiding thanks to the central bank's tight monetary policy, the rouble's strength, and a seasonal fall in prices for food and vegetables, was seen at 6.7% in 2025, down from 7.0% in the previous poll. "The decline in consumer prices continued amid summer seasonality. The situation in the labour market and key sectors remained within the trends of recent months," said Sofya Donets, chief economist at T-Bank. The analysts' estimate is in line with the central bank's forecast of between 6% and 7%. They predicted that the bank's key interest rate will come down by another 200 basis points to 16% by the end of the year. However, some analysts said the central bank may adjust its current policy and pause the expected further easing, or even reverse it, if the impact of the new sanctions turns out to be significant.
