Russian rouble expected to weaken by 20% in next 12 months, poll shows
U.S. President Donald Trump has said he will impose new sanctions on Moscow and countries that buy its energy exports - of which the biggest are China and India - unless Russia shows progress by August 8 towards a peace settlement in Ukraine.
"The behaviour of the rouble in August will largely be influenced by the specific content of the sanctions measures that Washington plans to implement against the Kremlin," said Finam analyst Alexander Potavin.
The rouble dropped 4.3% between July 24 and July 30 on Trump's threats but has since regained much of that ground to trade at around 80 on Friday. Analysts expected the currency to weaken to 83 to the dollar in 30 days from now.
"If the sanctions announced by Donald Trump against Russia turn out to be severe and are implemented, the Russian economy and financial market could face a new, profound impact," Potavin added.
Most analysts have regarded the Russian rouble as overvalued in recent months and have been saying that it needs to weaken.
The Kremlin says that Russia has acquired immunity to sanctions thanks to long experience. In the previous monthly poll, analysts saw the rouble weakening to 98.25 against the dollar in 12 months.
The inflation rate, which is subsiding thanks to the central bank's tight monetary policy, the rouble's strength, and a seasonal fall in prices for food and vegetables, was seen at 6.7% in 2025, down from 7.0% in the previous poll.
"The decline in consumer prices continued amid summer seasonality. The situation in the labour market and key sectors remained within the trends of recent months," said Sofya Donets, chief economist at T-Bank.
The analysts' estimate is in line with the central bank's forecast of between 6% and 7%. They predicted that the bank's key interest rate will come down by another 200 basis points to 16% by the end of the year.
However, some analysts said the central bank may adjust its current policy and pause the expected further easing, or even reverse it, if the impact of the new sanctions turns out to be significant.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Independent
27 minutes ago
- The Independent
India signals it will keep buying Russian oil despite Trump tariff threat
India has suggested it will continue purchasing oil from Russia despite US president Donald Trump 's threats to hit Delhi with new tariffs over the imports. Foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told reporters on Friday that India 's energy decisions were based on market availability and global conditions, adding that ties with Moscow were 'steady and time-tested' and should not be seen through the prism of a third country. Mr Trump said earlier this week that he plans to impose a 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods along with an additional import tax in response to Delhi 's continued buying of Russian crude. The US president has stepped up warnings against nations doing business with Moscow as Washington seeks leverage over Russia 's war in Ukraine. India bought about 68,000 barrels of crude oil a day from Russia in January 2022, but this rose to 1.12 million barrels per day by June that year, peaking at 2.15 million barrels a day in May 2023, according to data from analytics firm Kpler cited by Press Trust of India. Russian supplies at one point made up nearly 40 per cent of India's total oil imports, making Moscow its biggest crude supplier. While the Indian government may not be deterred by Mr Trump's threats, Reuters news agency earlier reported that Indian state refiners stopped buying Russian oil after July discounts narrowed to their lowest since 2022 - when sanctions were first imposed on Moscow - due to lower Russian exports and steady demand. Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Mangalore Refinery Petrochemical Ltd have not sought Russian crude in the past week or so, four sources told Reuters. Reacting to the reports, Mr Trump told reporters: 'I understand that India is no longer going to be buying oil from Russia. That's what I have heard. I don't know if that's right or not. That is a good step. We will see what happens.' He added that despite his tariff announcement, trade deal talks with India were progressing. India consumes around 5.5 million barrels of oil a day, importing roughly 88 per cent of its needs. The world's third-largest crude buyer after China and the US shifted sharply towards Russian supplies after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, taking advantage of steep discounts as Western nations turned away from Moscow's energy exports.
The Independent
27 minutes ago
- The Independent
Ukraine releases video showing frontline forces intercepting Russian drones mid‑air
Aerial footage released by Ukraine 's Ministry of Defence shows the Ukrainian army intercepting multiple Russian drones. The 93rd Mechanized Brigade, recognised as one of Kyiv 's most effective front-line units, was responsible for taking down the unmanned aerial vehicles. The intercepted drones included various types such as Orlan, Lancet, ZALA, Supercam, and Albatros, targeted at altitudes of several kilometres. The Ministry of Defence shared the footage online, stating that 'Every enemy wing will have its final flight.' Watch the video in full above.
The Guardian
35 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Gaza hospitals say 18 killed by Israeli fire as aid site shootings continue to rise
Hospitals in Gaza say Israeli fire killed more than a dozen people on Saturday, eight of them while trying to get food, as malnutrition-related deaths continue to rise in the territory. The bloodshed comes a day after Donald Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, visited an aid distribution site run by the Israel and US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). Global outrage has grown over Israel's restrictions on aid and the deadly unrest surrounding the GHF sites, with daily reports of shootings at all four locations since the group took over aid distribution at the end of May. The UN says 859 Palestinians have been killed during that time in the vicinity of these sites, and more than 500 have been killed along the routes of food convoys. Health officials reported that Israeli airstrikes and gunfire killed at least 18 Palestinians on Saturday, including three who were in the area around a distribution site. Nasser hospital also said Israeli forces killed five Palestinians who were among crowds awaiting aid in the south. In a statement to the Associated Press, GHF said 'nothing (happened) at or near our sites'. Both the GHF and the Israeli army have said they only shoot if there is a threat, or fire warning shots to disperse crowds. Doctors in Gaza have reported treating an increasing number of gunshot and shrapnel wounds in patients who were trying to get food at the aid sites. 'We weren't close to them [the troops] and there was no threat,' a witness, Abed Salah, who was among crowds close to the GHF site near Netzarim corridor, told AP. 'I escaped death miraculously.' Officials added that 10 of Saturday's casualties were killed by strikes in central and southern Gaza, with five people killed in two separate strikes on tents sheltering displaced people. The US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, who accompanied Witkoff on the trip on Friday, claimed the GHF sites were delivering 'more than one million meals a day' and called the distribution 'an incredible feat'. Reports from aid workers, doctors, and journalists in Gaza paint a different story, with UN-backed food security experts saying this week that the 'worst-case scenario of famine' is now playing out in Gaza. Seven Palestinians died of malnutrition-related causes over the past 24 hours, including a child, the territory's health ministry said on Saturday. This brings the total deaths among children from causes related to malnutrition in Gaza to 93 since the war began. Sign up to First Thing Our US morning briefing breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion After international outcry, airdrops of aid have resumed, and several European countries have announced plans to join the Jordan-led coalition orchestrating the drops, but aid groups say this delivers only a fraction of what aid trucks can supply – and are also dangerous. What is really needed, they say, is to open the land borders and restore the full flow of aid. 'If there is political will to allow airdrops – which are highly costly, insufficient + inefficient, there should be similar political will to open the road crossings,' Philippe Lazzarini, the head of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, wrote on X on Saturday. The German government, traditionally a staunch ally of Israel, joined calls for Israel to deliver more aid on Saturday, saying that the current amount remains 'very insufficient'. The criticism came after the German military completed its first food airdrops into Gaza. In Tel Aviv, Witkoff joined families of hostages protesting, as they urged the Israeli government to end the war and release their loved ones. Yotam Cohen, brother of 21-year-old hostage Nimrod Cohen, told AFP: 'The war needs to end. The Israeli government will not end it willingly. It has refused to do so.' Negotiations between Hamas and Israel aimed at securing a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza and a deal for the release of hostages ended in deadlock last week, with Witkoff blaming Hamas for a 'lack of desire to reach a ceasefire'. Hamas said on Saturday that it would not lay down arms unless an independent, fully sovereign Palestinian state is established.
