Trump's compelling tariff narrative can't mask real-world failures

South China Morning Post

2 days ago

In today's complex global economy, few issues stir more intense emotions than tariffs. US President Donald Trump's tariff narrative has captured the hearts of many Americans. He painted a picture of a victimised America, its
manufacturing base hollowed out and jobs shipped overseas. He promised to restore national greatness by wielding tariffs as a magic wand. While this narrative was a political triumph, it was built on a series of exaggerations and, when translated into policy, has ultimately fallen short.
To understand the narrative's resonance, it is necessary to look beyond economic data and connect with the anxieties within US society. While national economic data shows steady growth, this macro-level success has failed to alleviate the pain in specific industrial communities. Trump's genius has been to simplify these complex issues, boiling them down to a single, external enemy: trade partners
taking advantage of America
He has framed
massive trade deficits as evidence of plunder, resonating with those who felt forgotten by globalisation and making them feel they finally have a leader fighting on their behalf. The promise of tariffs was not just economic; it was a pledge to return to a time that felt more certain and stable, offering a sense of belonging to those who felt adrift in a rapidly changing world.
The narrative of
a stagnating America , while politically potent, is not supported by the data. The idea that most Americans have suffered a decline in their standard of living is false. The fundamental number to consider is median disposable household income, or the income of the family in the middle. The median is a more accurate measure than the average because it isn't skewed by the
extremely high incomes of top earners.
According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the median US income in 2021 was the second-highest in the world, behind only Luxembourg. This figure is not static, either, as real median personal income in the US has risen by around 50 per cent since the 1970s.