Key Paris climate pact target at 1.5 degrees ‘too high for polar ice sheets'
global temperature increase
to 1.5 degrees under the Paris climate agreement may not go far enough to save the world's ice sheets from melting and causing profound changes to coastlines, scientists have concluded.
Research led by Durham University in the UK suggests the target should instead be closer to 1 degree to avoid significant losses from polar ice sheets and to prevent further acceleration in sea level rise.
The team reviewed evidence including satellite imagery to examine the effect that the 1.5-degree target would have on immense ice sheets in
Greenland
and
Antarctica
, which together store enough ice to raise global sea levels by almost 65 metres.
The mass of ice lost from these ice sheets has quadrupled since the 1990s and they are currently losing about 370 billion tonnes of ice a year, they show – with current warming levels of about 1.2 degrees above pre-industrial temperatures (the mid-19th century) based on the latest United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.
READ MORE
Further warming to 1.5 degrees – on a 20-year average – 'would likely generate several metres of sea level rise over coming centuries as ice sheets melt in response to both warming air and ocean temperatures'.
This would make it very difficult and far more expensive to adapt to rising sea levels, 'causing extensive loss and damage to coastal and island populations and leading to widespread displacement of hundreds of millions of people', they conclude.
[
Angling suspended at three of Ireland's top fisheries due to high water temperatures
Opens in new window
]
Policymakers and governments need to be more aware of 1.5-degree rise could have on ice sheets and sea levels, said the researchers.
Currently, about 230 million people live within one metre of sea level and melting ice represents an existential threat to those communities, including several low-lying countries, they said.
Avoiding this would require a global average temperature cooler than that of today, which the researchers suggest is closer to 1 degree above pre-industrial levels – or possibly even lower.
The research, including inputs from other experts in the UK and US, was published in Communications Earth and Environment on Tuesday.
'We've known for a long time some sea level rise is inevitable over the next few decades to centuries, but recent observations of ice sheet loss are alarming, even under current climate conditions,' said lead author Prof Chris Stokes.
'Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees would be a major achievement and this should absolutely be our focus. However, even if this target is met or only temporarily exceeded, people need to be aware sea level rise is likely to accelerate to rates that are very difficult to adapt to – rates of one centimetre per year are not out of the question within the lifetime of our young people'.
'We are not necessarily saying all is lost at 1.5 degrees, but we are saying every fraction of a degree really matters for the ice sheets – and the sooner we can halt the warming the better, because this makes it far easier to return to safer levels further down the line,' he said.
'We only have to go back to the early 1990s to find a time when the ice sheets looked far healthier,' Prof Stokes said.
Global temperatures were about 1 degree above pre-industrial times back then and carbon dioxide concentrations were 350 parts per million, which others have said is a much safer limit for Earth. Carbon dioxide concentrations are currently around 424 parts per million and continue to increase.
Co-author Prof Rob DeConto of University of Massachusetts Amherst said that even if the Earth returns to its pre-industrial temperature, it will still take hundreds to perhaps thousands of years for ice sheets to recover.
'If too much ice is lost, parts of these ice sheets may not recover until the Earth enters the next ice age. In other words, land lost to sea level rise from melting ice sheets will be lost for a very, very long time. That's why it is so critical to limit warming in the first place,' he said.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Agriland
2 hours ago
- Agriland
EU funds development of AI-powered platform for sustainable potato farming
Research continues apace to make greater use of artificial intelligence (AI) within the European potato sector. The driver here is the development of new, regenerative management systems that will, amongst other things, reduce the use of fungicide chemistries to control blight. A case in point is the allocation of £700,000 support funding through the European Commission's European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) Food Innovation Agency to the UK-based agritech company Cropin. The work will entail using real-time field data, computer models, and predictive analytics to secure objective data points that can be used to verify the effects of regenerative methods without compromising potato crop yield or quality, including the dry matter content sought by processors. Known as 'FIRST Potato - Field Intelligence for Regenerative Agriculture and Sustainability in Potato Farming', Cropin's AI-powered initiative is designed to encourage the adoption of regenerative practices across Europe. It brings together a consortium of food processors, research institutions, and sustainability leaders to accelerate the transition from conventional to regenerative practice. Krishna Kumar, CEO and founder of Cropin said: "As regenerative agriculture gains momentum, the absence of verifiable, measurable outcomes poses a real challenge to meaningful, scalable impact. "Without robust digital systems, farmers struggle to consistently uphold regenerative principles. 'Through AI, data intelligence, and real-time decision-support, we are bridging this critical gap, bringing precision, accountability, and scale to regenerative agriculture.' The AI-powered technology will pull together data from sensors, satellite imagery, weather stations, and internet devices to deliver plot-specific daily advisories to growers, tailored to soil profile and microclimatic conditions. The technology is intended to optimise irrigation, input usage and residue management to help farmers manage optimal yield, reduced inputs, and the consistency in quality demanded by processors of crisps and chips. Looking to the future, regenerative crop management practices should be able to meet these demands. However, evidence shows yields can fall in the early years of transition. This is where the AI technology will assist farmers in optimising production. According to Cropin, initially, the scientific validation of the AI platform will be carried out on farms in Denmark, where Cropin has partnered with Aarhus University, a globally recognised leader in sustainable agriculture research. However, the first commercial pilots will involve a UK potato processor, with a second to follow in Germany. "This deployment will deliver collective benefits," Kumar explained. "Growers enhance their profitability, brands meet their sustainability targets, and regenerative practices benefit the planet: it's a win-win for the entire agri-food ecosystem."
Irish Times
14 hours ago
- Irish Times
The difference between ‘net zero' emissions and ‘temperature neutrality'
Climate scientists have challenged the view that prioritising 'temperature neutrality' as a revised approach to meeting climate targets is merited. This is because insufficient reductions of greenhouse gases would be achieved. It is considered a get-out-of-jail card for big livestock-producing countries with high methane emissions such as Ireland, they say, because it endorses an approach that shifts policy to containing 'additional global warming'. Getting to net zero emissions is much more demanding than keeping temperatures where they are right now. 'Temperature neutrality is essentially a political choice to take current levels of warming as 'acceptable' while committing not to increase them,' said University of Galway researcher Dr Colm Duffy. READ MORE 'For methane, this is particularly problematic. Because of its short atmospheric lifespan, future warming is determined by future emissions, meaning the temperature framing effectively carves out a long-term methane emissions space for the country adopting it.' Methane is a potent short-lived climate pollutant with a much higher warming impact than CO² over 20 years, but it only lasts about a decade in the atmosphere. 'It is simultaneously a huge threat, but also our greatest lever for actually lowering temperatures. CO² is essentially up there forever,' he adds. [ Ireland can reduce impact of extreme climate events by transforming economy, experts suggest Opens in new window ] In short, stabilisation is temporary due to shifting global methane background levels. 'This means the temperature neutrality [scenario] is essentially a moving target, which is not something you want to pin climate policy on.' As Dr Róisín Moriarty of University College Cork 's Sustainability Institute says, with less than three years of 'global carbon budget' remaining to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, and a 50 per cent chance of achieving it, countries need to do as much as they possibly can on the issue. A carbon budget is the total amount of emissions that may be released in an effort to contain global warming. In Ireland, five-year legally binding carbon budgets are in place, applying to all sectors including agriculture. The Climate Change Advisory Council put forward this new concept. The independent body, which advises the Government, claims it is in line with the Paris Agreement. Moreover, it based carbon budget modelling and subsequent advice around future carbon budgets on it. While the council has indicated there is nothing stopping the Government from being more ambitious, it will not advise on a higher level of ambition. In June, the council told the Oireachtas climate committee it 'considers climate neutrality to mean that Ireland is no longer contributing to the increase in global temperatures by 2050'. [ Move to ease climate targets criticised for allowing continued high methane emissions ] This aligns with the national climate objective of transitioning to a climate-resilient, biodiversity-rich, and environmentally sustainable economy, it said. 'Achieving this involves balancing greenhouse gas emissions with their removal from the atmosphere, effectively stopping Ireland's contribution to rising global temperatures.' It said improved analysis of mitigation options were used for the new proposal, targeting temperature neutrality pathways rather than an overreliance on as-yet unproven technologies such as carbon capture and storage. The approach has not been adopted by Government, though the Department of Agriculture favours including temperature models in scenario planning. The council said its Carbon Budgets Working Group assessed 1,196 scientifically based emissions scenarios that were developed for consistency with Ireland's national climate objective. In Dr Duffy's opinion, however, temperature neutrality 'shifts the goalposts on ambition and passes the buck on climate mitigation, while essentially claiming the opposite. 'From an EU perspective, such a [scenario] could be seen as a backslide on commitments, with potential political and reputational implications,' Dr Duffy adds.
Irish Times
a day ago
- Irish Times
Sea waters around UK experience record temperatures, causing dramatic changes in marine life
There have been dramatic changes to marine life as a result of seas around the UK having their warmest start to the year since records began, according to provisional data from the UK Met Office. Ireland's seawater temperatures, however, have declined since a marine heatwave occurred during exceptionally warm weather in May , but continue above normal in the east and south, Met Éireann climatologist Paul Moore said. UK Met Office data placed May's heatwave at the extreme end of the spectrum, with the Irish Marine Data Buoy Observation Network confirming sea surface temperatures were up to 4 degrees above average. The average surface temperature of UK waters in the seven months to the end of July was more than 0.2 degrees higher than in any year since 1980, with dramatic changes in marine life evident due to this prolonged heating, analysis of the provisional Met Office data by the BBC concludes. READ MORE Scientists and citizen naturalists have observed a remarkable range of species not usually widespread in UK waters, including octopus, bluefin tuna and mauve stinger jellyfish. [ Angling suspended at three of Ireland's top fisheries due to high water temperatures Opens in new window ] The abundance of these creatures can be affected by natural cycles and fishing practices, but many researchers point to the warming seas as a crucial part of their increased presence. 'Things like jellyfish, like octopus ... they are the sorts of things that you expect to respond quickly to climate change,' Dr Bryce Stewart, a senior research fellow at the Marine Biological Association in Plymouth, told the BBC. 'It's a bit like the canary in the coal mine – the sorts of quite extraordinary changes we've seen over the last few years really do indicate an ecosystem under flux." Atlantic bluefin tuna have been seen along Britain's southwest coast in large numbers this year and have been increasingly detected in Irish waters. Bluefin tuna numbers have been building over the past decade for a number of reasons, including warmer waters and better management of their populations. But extreme heat, combined with historical overfishing, is pushing some cold-adapted species like cod and wolffish to their limits. 'We're definitely seeing this shift of cooler water species moving north in general,' Dr Stewart added. The seas around Ireland and the UK are now considerably warmer than even a few decades ago, a trend driven by the burning of fossil fuels. Warmer seas intensify hurricanes and storms, while there are particular changes to Atlantic currents due to warming that could alter normal weather patterns profoundly. The world's oceans have taken up about 90 per cent of the Earth's excess heat from humanity's emissions of planet-warming gases, including carbon dioxide. This spring was dominated by high-pressure weather conditions, mostly just to the north of Ireland and Britain, resulting in above-average sunshine and below-average winds, generally coming from an easterly direction. A marine heatwave is when the sea surface temperatures are significantly above average for a long period of time. The warmest part of the year for sea surface temperatures is usually in August, with the latest data confirming waters off the south and west of England are exceptionally warm. Further south, the Bay of Biscay is experiencing temperatures 1 to 2 degrees above normal. [ Fishing industry fears changing stocks and species as sea temperatures rise from climate change Opens in new window ] Ireland still has above-average temperatures along the south and east, with waters off the north and west coasts nearer the average, Mr Moore said. Water temperatures in the Irish Sea were 15.3 degrees on Monday, close to the average for August. In Co Cork, waters were at 16.8 degrees, above the average of 16.2 degrees. This may change over the coming week, Mr Moore added, as Ireland is forecast to have winds predominantly from a southerly direction 'which is like to exacerbate sea temperatures'. Mr Moore confirmed the overall trend of warming in the Atlantic, with temperatures 'well above the 1991-2020 long-term average'. A marine heatwave in the Mediterranean intensified a 'heat dome' over France and Spain in recent weeks. The Met Office says its data from the end of June 2024 to now is provisional and will be finalised in the coming months, but this usually results in only very minor changes.
