1 reason why each team in the men's Final Four will (and won't!) win March Madness

USA Today

04-04-2025

1 reason why each team in the men's Final Four will (and won't!) win March Madness
We know that the winner of the men's March Madness tournament will come from one of the No. 1 seeds. But what does each team have going that can push them over the edge?
On the other end of the spectrum, what is the fatal flaw that will cause any of these top-seeded teams to tumble on the biggest stage? Each team has made a legitimate case for why they are deserving title winners over the course of the season and rank as the four best in the nation, per KenPom. But only one can team actually cut down the nets at the conclusion of the tournament.
Here is the best case for each team and the reason why these rosters could potentially fall short, too.
Why They Will Win: Duke has the best player in the nation in Cooper Flagg but he is also surrounded by several other future NBA players, too.
Khaman Maluach and Kon Knueppel are both projected lottery picks while both Tyrese Proctor and Isaiah Evans could hear their names called in the 2025 NBA Draft as well. This is an extraordinarily talented roster that is built to cut down the nets.
The Blue Devils are the only team that ranks top-5 in both offense and defense, which should give them an edge to win it all.
Why They Won't Win: Dating back to 2008-09, per KenPom, the average roster continuity of a national champion is 57.1 percent. Among the four teams remaining, three have a continuity percentage better than 54.1 percent.
Lowest in the group is Duke, whose continuity percentage is just 20.9 percent. No men's team on record has won a national championship with a continuity percentage lower than 33.2 percent.
Duke (7-3) also has the fewest "wins above bubble" against top-25 teams among those still remaining in the tournament this season, via Bart Torvik.
Why They Will Win: The Florida Gators do a great job to grab a ton of offensive rebounds, create a lot of second-chance opportunities, and led the nation in fastbreak points scored. Walter Clayton Jr. has looked like an ace floor general capable of winning it all for this roster.
Why They Won't Win: Florida has a much worse defensive rating (111.0) than the other teams remaining in the tournament including Auburn (94.7), Houston (95.1), and Duke (102.7). The Gators also have committed the most turnovers (53) of any team during March Madness.
Houston Cougars
Why They Will Win: Houston had the best defense in men's college basketball, the most roster continuity of all teams that made the Sweet 16, and they have a veteran coach who brags previous years of experience coaching in the Final Four.
Defense wins championships and Houston has played the best against top-25 teams among all teams this season, per Bart Torvik.
Why They Won't Win: It takes NBA talent to win a championship. Since 1976, every single NCAA men's champion has had at least one first-round pick on its roster.
Per Rookie Scale: Duke has three players projected as top-10 picks and five players as top-40 picks. Auburn has a player (Auburn) projected as a top-35 pick. Florida has two players (Alex Condon and Walter Clayton Jr.) projected as top-50 picks. Houston does not have anyone projected in the top-50.
Additionally, via Burner Ball, each national champion since 2003-04 has ranked No. 12 or better in the Week 6 AP poll. Houston ranked No. 16 in that poll, which would buck that trend.
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Why They Will Win: There is a reason why Auburn alum Charles Barkley said Johni Broome can beat him as the best player in program history. The big man is remarkably talented and productive and helping lead this dominant Auburn team, which has the most wins (19) against Quad 1 opponents.
Freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford has been one of the most impactful players in the tournament thus far and could continue his hot streak with another couple strong performances as well.
Why They Won't Win: Houston is currently enjoying a 17-game winning streak. Duke is in the midst of a 15-game winning streak. Florida has won ten games in a row. Auburn, however, is just 7-3 in their last ten games and have shown the most signs of weakness of any of these remaining teams recently.
Since March 4, three of the four best teams (Florida, Houston, and Duke) based on "wins above bubble" remain in the tournament. Auburn ranks 80th in this metric since that date, via Bart Torvik, which is significantly worse than their competition in that span.
Auburn's offensive rating in the tournament (113.2) is significantly lower than Duke (138.1), Florida (128.4), and Houston (122.1).
Meanwhile, their best player Johni Broome left their most recent game with an elbow injury, which could make an impact.