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New York Times
02-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
2025 NBA Draft stay-or-go decisions: 11 who loom large for 2025-26 college basketball season
The call of the NBA is an ever-present threat for college basketball rosters. What can look like a stacked roster for next season could lose a surprising piece that undercuts a possible national championship contender. With the advent of name, image and likeness (and the resultant influx of cash for top players), college hoops has fought back. Potential draftees, especially those late in the first round and into the second, now have to consider the NIL payday they would forgo should they choose to start their professional careers. Advertisement That's led to some surprising returners to college. A year ago, Walter Clayton Jr. chose to chase a national title rather than enter the pro ranks; that turned out well for Clayton and the Gators. Johni Broome also eschewed the draft and helped power Auburn to the Final Four. As chaotic and entertaining as the transfer portal is, keeping star-caliber pieces in college is vital to building a truly elite team. The 2025 early-entry deadline already has some clear winners: Texas Tech managed to convince All-American JT Toppin to avoid testing the waters, and two-time national champion Alex Karaban is returning to UConn for a fourth season. The Red Raiders and the Huskies will likely find their way into many preseason top 10s in part due to this retention of potential draft picks. Many other decisions that will drastically impact the 2026 national title picture still hang in the balance, though. Following the NBA's release of the full list of early entrants, the below collection of players all have significant choices that could push their schools into the forefront of the college basketball world. Note: To illustrate the significance of each decision, we've included each team's national ranking at with and without the player on the roster using Torvik's Roster Cast tool, which allows you to alter teams' roster constructions to see the impact of individual players. Bart Torvik rank with Uzan: 1 Bart Torvik rank without: 1 (incredibly) Though most of the Houston headlines all season went to LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and J'Wan Roberts, Uzan was the secret engine to a Cougars squad that came within a possession of a national championship. Taking over at point guard for program legend Jamal Shead, the Oklahoma transfer got off to a slow start, but his steady improvement — particularly as a potent offensive threat — mirrored the trajectory of Houston as a whole. Cougars coach Kelvin Sampson reiterated that point after Uzan's game-winning layup against Purdue in the Sweet 16. With Uzan back in the fold to join Sharp, defensive player of the year candidate JoJo Tugler and a loaded recruiting class, Houston would be a no-doubt top-five team in preseason rankings (and very arguably the No. 1 squad). Without him, though, Houston would need a serious lift from incoming transfer Pop Isaacs, as Uzan's shot creation — not to mention his smothering defensive presence on the perimeter — would be sorely missed. That would still be a top 10 or so team but with enough questions to perhaps fall below the top tier of contenders. Advertisement Torvik rank with Oweh: 11 Torvik rank without: 16 Mark Pope's first season in Lexington made it clear the Wildcats are firmly entrenched as contenders in the SEC. Kentucky's spending in the transfer portal this offseason — basically a Los Angeles Dodgers-esque spree — has given Pope an extremely promising roster for his encore campaign. To truly be a national championship contender, though, Pope needs Oweh to return for his senior season. The hyperathletic wing, who like Uzan began his career at Oklahoma (apologies to Sooners fans), ascended to stardom for Big Blue Nation. On a deep and balanced roster, Oweh's athletic slashing and harassing defense became indispensable. He'd give Kentucky the All-American candidate needed to exist in the highest echelon of preseason prognostications. Torvik rank with Lendeborg: 4 Torvik rank without: 20 Led by a dominant big man duo in Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, Michigan made the Sweet 16 in Dusty May's first season in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines tripled down on the frontcourt this offseason, reeling in three more gems via the portal: Lendeborg (UAB), Morez Johnson Jr. (Illinois) and Aday Mara (UCLA). That combination would terrorize opponents for 40 minutes at the rim and on the boards. Whether the trio ever plays together, though, hinges on Lendeborg's NBA Draft decision. The former junior college star is already an older prospect (he'll be 23 in September), and he could choose to take his versatile, physical game to the pros. Michigan would still be in good shape without him as a chief contender to Purdue in the Big Ten, but having Lendeborg as a do-it-all double-double machine would raise the ceiling in Ann Arbor considerably. Torvik rank with Condon: 9 Torvik rank without: 19 Advertisement The Gators' shocking run to the national title came in large part due to a supremely talented trio of shot makers on the perimeter. Clayton, Alijah Martin and Will Richard all had major moments of brilliance during their March run. But Florida's deep and physical frontcourt was an overlooked aspect of its success. Todd Golden could cycle body after body in the paint to bludgeon opponents and wear them down over 40 minutes, and both Condon and Rueben Chinyelu — the Gators' two starters — were crucial parts of that rotation. Chinyelu is also gauging NBA interest but is generally expected to return to school; however, the physical Australian Condon is much more of a true toss-up. He struggled in the NCAA Tournament after an ankle injury late in the season, so he could be best served to return to school and show off his talents once more while leading the Florida front line for what would be a top 10-15 team heading into the year. Torvik rank with Bryant: 4 Torvik rank without: 15 Like Florida, Arizona has two players testing the draft waters, with Jaden Bradley joining Bryant in that endeavor. Bradley is strongly expected to return, though, while the uber-talented Bryant feels like a true coin flip on where he will end up. He came on strong as Arizona's season progressed; he logged 20-plus minutes just once in Arizona's first 10 games, but he cracked that mark in 16 of the final 18 contests. In doing so, he displayed the kind of versatility and floor-stretching game that will make pro scouts pay attention. That seemed like just the beginning for the high-upside forward. He was frequently deferential to Arizona's veterans on the offensive end, registering the lowest usage in the team's rotation. Should he return, he's an obvious breakout candidate with more touches and shots headed his way. If he's back for that potential star turn, Arizona will be in the Big 12 and national mix, but if not, the Wildcats will be in the second tier of both. Torvik rank with Coward and Evans: 4 Torvik rank without Coward, with Evans: 4 Torvik rank without Evans, with Coward: 5 Torvik rank without both: 7 Duke came within a monumental final-minute collapse against Houston of playing for a national title. Jon Scheyer has done a tremendous job of maintaining Duke's status among the elite in college basketball, and although his 2025-26 team will not have Cooper Flagg on it, the Blue Devils have the talent to make a return trip to the Final Four. Advertisement Even with a killer freshman class, though, a large portion of the upside hinges on whether the nucleus will include Coward, a transfer from Washington State, and Evans, an incendiary scorer due for a major role increase as a sophomore. Both players offer enticing wing skill sets to the NBA, but both could maximize their draft position with a banner year in big roles for an elite team. Every member of this foursome remains in the transfer portal as of this writing. Any member of this group could drastically alter the outlook of a team, pushing that squad toward the national title picture. Haggerty, an All-American scoring guard at Memphis, is an instant cheat code to an efficient offense thanks to his devastating dribble moves, finishing ability inside and knack for getting to the charity stripe. Williams is a quintessential do-it-all winner capable of serving as a mid-post hub on offense and multipositional force on defense. Fland showed off his scoring and passing genes at Arkansas as a rookie, and he could explode as a sophomore thanks to his prodigious talents. And finally, Watkins is a matchup problem, a big wing/forward who could be an ace second banana for a great team. Keep an eye on whether any of this group chooses to return to college — and where they end up if they do. (Top photos of Otega Oweh and Isaiah Evans: Andy Lyons, Grant Halverson / Getty Images)
USA Today
04-04-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
1 reason why each team in the men's Final Four will (and won't!) win March Madness
1 reason why each team in the men's Final Four will (and won't!) win March Madness We know that the winner of the men's March Madness tournament will come from one of the No. 1 seeds. But what does each team have going that can push them over the edge? On the other end of the spectrum, what is the fatal flaw that will cause any of these top-seeded teams to tumble on the biggest stage? Each team has made a legitimate case for why they are deserving title winners over the course of the season and rank as the four best in the nation, per KenPom. But only one can team actually cut down the nets at the conclusion of the tournament. Here is the best case for each team and the reason why these rosters could potentially fall short, too. Why They Will Win: Duke has the best player in the nation in Cooper Flagg but he is also surrounded by several other future NBA players, too. Khaman Maluach and Kon Knueppel are both projected lottery picks while both Tyrese Proctor and Isaiah Evans could hear their names called in the 2025 NBA Draft as well. This is an extraordinarily talented roster that is built to cut down the nets. The Blue Devils are the only team that ranks top-5 in both offense and defense, which should give them an edge to win it all. Why They Won't Win: Dating back to 2008-09, per KenPom, the average roster continuity of a national champion is 57.1 percent. Among the four teams remaining, three have a continuity percentage better than 54.1 percent. Lowest in the group is Duke, whose continuity percentage is just 20.9 percent. No men's team on record has won a national championship with a continuity percentage lower than 33.2 percent. Duke (7-3) also has the fewest "wins above bubble" against top-25 teams among those still remaining in the tournament this season, via Bart Torvik. Why They Will Win: The Florida Gators do a great job to grab a ton of offensive rebounds, create a lot of second-chance opportunities, and led the nation in fastbreak points scored. Walter Clayton Jr. has looked like an ace floor general capable of winning it all for this roster. Why They Won't Win: Florida has a much worse defensive rating (111.0) than the other teams remaining in the tournament including Auburn (94.7), Houston (95.1), and Duke (102.7). The Gators also have committed the most turnovers (53) of any team during March Madness. Houston Cougars Why They Will Win: Houston had the best defense in men's college basketball, the most roster continuity of all teams that made the Sweet 16, and they have a veteran coach who brags previous years of experience coaching in the Final Four. Defense wins championships and Houston has played the best against top-25 teams among all teams this season, per Bart Torvik. Why They Won't Win: It takes NBA talent to win a championship. Since 1976, every single NCAA men's champion has had at least one first-round pick on its roster. Per Rookie Scale: Duke has three players projected as top-10 picks and five players as top-40 picks. Auburn has a player (Auburn) projected as a top-35 pick. Florida has two players (Alex Condon and Walter Clayton Jr.) projected as top-50 picks. Houston does not have anyone projected in the top-50. Additionally, via Burner Ball, each national champion since 2003-04 has ranked No. 12 or better in the Week 6 AP poll. Houston ranked No. 16 in that poll, which would buck that trend. More: 1 NBA Draft fact about March Madness means good news for these 5 teams, including Duke Why They Will Win: There is a reason why Auburn alum Charles Barkley said Johni Broome can beat him as the best player in program history. The big man is remarkably talented and productive and helping lead this dominant Auburn team, which has the most wins (19) against Quad 1 opponents. Freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford has been one of the most impactful players in the tournament thus far and could continue his hot streak with another couple strong performances as well. Why They Won't Win: Houston is currently enjoying a 17-game winning streak. Duke is in the midst of a 15-game winning streak. Florida has won ten games in a row. Auburn, however, is just 7-3 in their last ten games and have shown the most signs of weakness of any of these remaining teams recently. Since March 4, three of the four best teams (Florida, Houston, and Duke) based on "wins above bubble" remain in the tournament. Auburn ranks 80th in this metric since that date, via Bart Torvik, which is significantly worse than their competition in that span. Auburn's offensive rating in the tournament (113.2) is significantly lower than Duke (138.1), Florida (128.4), and Houston (122.1). Meanwhile, their best player Johni Broome left their most recent game with an elbow injury, which could make an impact.
Fox Sports
31-03-2025
- Sport
- Fox Sports
Efficiency metrics touted Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn all year. Now they're in the Final Four
Associated Press The data told the story all year on Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn. In that regard, it shouldn't be a surprise to see them in the Final Four as only the second all-chalk set of 1-seeds to reach college basketball's final stage. The Blue Devils, Cougars, Gators and Tigers had held the top four spots in daily rankings from KenPom since the first half of February, and their net efficiency ranks among the best ever charted by the analytics site going back more than a quarter-century. They were also the headliners on data-driven rankings from Bart Torvik and Evan Miyakawa as well, further confirmation of how good these teams have been from November, through March Madness and now entering San Antonio. There's only a few minor variations in those comparisons. Duke is No. 1 for KenPom and Miyakawa ahead of Houston, while the Cougars are No. 1 in Torvik ahead of the Blue Devils. And the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are all in the top 10 except for Torvik having the Gators at 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Otherwise, the data matches the eye test. College and NBA TV analyst Terrence Oglesby, who played at Clemson, pointed to all four having 'big, switchable guys who can make shots" as a common thread between the teams operating at elite efficiency on both sides of the ball. 'Outside of that top four, a lot of people were depending on runs,' Oglesby said. 'You have to be able to play both sides of the ball with consistency. And these four do that so much better than everyone else.' And that applies over years, too, when it comes to KenPom's long-running data. KenPom bases efficiency metrics on points scored or allowed over a standardized 100-possession pace, which eliminates tempo as a factor in high averages boosted by playing at a faster pace or numbers depressed by grind-down-the-clock styles. The overall rankings are determined by net efficiency in terms of how much a team's offensive data outpaces its defensive numbers. In that regard, Duke's plus-39.62 rating is the second-highest net efficiency recorded by KenPom in data back to the 1996-97 season. Only the Blue Devils' 1998-99 team (plus 43.01) that went 37-2 and lost in the NCAA title game ranks higher. Duke is coming off a defensive masterclass in the East Region final against 2-seed Alabama, which had scored 113 points and hit 25 3-pointers in its Sweet 16 win against BYU. The Blue Devils have the nation's tallest roster with every rotation player standing 6-feet-5 or taller, and they're an elite switching group with bigs using their length to capably contest against smaller, quicker guards out to the arc. That helped them smother the Crimson Tide: Alabama went 8 of 32 from 3-point range, made just 45.4% of its two point shots and averaged .942 points per possession. Its 65-point output joined a January loss to Ole Miss (64) as the only times the Tide failed to reach 70 points in the past two seasons. 'Duke is as good a team as we've seen all year,' Alabama coach Nate Oats said. "We've got some really good teams in the SEC, and they're at that level.' Houston (plus 36.49), Florida (plus 36.05) and Auburn (plus 35.25) currently have their own lofty perch, too, with historically elite KenPom numbers. Consider: only six teams have finished with a net efficiency of at least plus 35 in KenPom's history: Duke 1998-99, Duke 2000-01 (37.32), Kansas 2007-08 (35.21), Kentucky 2014-15 (36.91), Gonzaga 2020-21 (36.48) and UConn 2023-24 (36.43). Of that group, three teams — Duke 2001, Kansas and UConn — won a national title. Of this year's Final Four teams, Duke, Houston and Auburn have ranked inside the top five in all of KenPom's daily rankings. Florida started the year at No. 26, but cracked the top 10 by late November. 'You need to have depth and need to have multiple guys that can step up when other guys aren't playing their best,' Florida coach Todd Golden said after Saturday's comeback win against Texas Tech for the program's first Final Four trip since 2014. 'That's why we've been good all year and consistent, why we haven't lost two in a row. We haven't got in any droughts or situations where nobody's stepping up.' Now the Gators are part of a quartet ranked 1-2-3-4 in some order of KenPom's daily rankings dating to Feb. 12, while Auburn (80) and Duke (50) have combined to hold the No. 1 spot 89.7% of the time in the 145 rankings dating to Nov. 4. Along the way, Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference ) and Houston (Big 12 ) went 19-1 in league play before winning three games for their league tournament title. Auburn won the regular season and Florida claimed the tournament title in the a Southeastern Conference that produced a record 14 NCAA bids. The only other time a Final Four featured four 1-seeds came in 2008, with Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and North Carolina making it to through the first two weeks of the NCAA Tournament. Coincidentally, that Final Four also came in San Antonio. This time could mark a coronation for a team that, from a data standpoint, ranks among the sport's best teams in decades. 'It's been the most dominant run by four teams that I can remember,' Oglesby said. 'It's amazing to see really.' ___ AP March Madness bracket: and coverage: Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. recommended
Yahoo
31-03-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Efficiency metrics touted Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn all year. Now they're in the Final Four
The data told the story all year on Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn. In that regard, it shouldn't be a surprise to see them in the Final Four as only the second all-chalk set of 1-seeds to reach college basketball's final stage. The Blue Devils, Cougars, Gators and Tigers had held the top four spots in daily rankings from KenPom since the first half of February, and their net efficiency ranks among the best ever charted by the analytics site going back more than a quarter-century. They were also the headliners on data-driven rankings from Bart Torvik and Evan Miyakawa as well, further confirmation of how good these teams have been from November, through March Madness and now entering San Antonio. There's only a few minor variations in those comparisons. Duke is No. 1 for KenPom and Miyakawa ahead of Houston, while the Cougars are No. 1 in Torvik ahead of the Blue Devils. And the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are all in the top 10 except for Torvik having the Gators at 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Otherwise, the data matches the eye test. College and NBA TV analyst Terrence Oglesby, who played at Clemson, pointed to all four having 'big, switchable guys who can make shots" as a common thread between the teams operating at elite efficiency on both sides of the ball. 'Outside of that top four, a lot of people were depending on runs,' Oglesby said. 'You have to be able to play both sides of the ball with consistency. And these four do that so much better than everyone else.' And that applies over years, too, when it comes to KenPom's long-running data. KenPom bases efficiency metrics on points scored or allowed over a standardized 100-possession pace, which eliminates tempo as a factor in high averages boosted by playing at a faster pace or numbers depressed by grind-down-the-clock styles. The overall rankings are determined by net efficiency in terms of how much a team's offensive data outpaces its defensive numbers. In that regard, Duke's plus-39.62 rating is the second-highest net efficiency recorded by KenPom in data back to the 1996-97 season. Only the Blue Devils' 1998-99 team (plus 43.01) that went 37-2 and lost in the NCAA title game ranks higher. Duke is coming off a defensive masterclass in the East Region final against 2-seed Alabama, which had scored 113 points and hit 25 3-pointers in its Sweet 16 win against BYU. The Blue Devils have the nation's tallest roster with every rotation player standing 6-feet-5 or taller, and they're an elite switching group with bigs using their length to capably contest against smaller, quicker guards out to the arc. That helped them smother the Crimson Tide: Alabama went 8 of 32 from 3-point range, made just 45.4% of its two point shots and averaged .942 points per possession. Its 65-point output joined a January loss to Ole Miss (64) as the only times the Tide failed to reach 70 points in the past two seasons. 'Duke is as good a team as we've seen all year,' Alabama coach Nate Oats said. "We've got some really good teams in the SEC, and they're at that level.' Houston (plus 36.49), Florida (plus 36.05) and Auburn (plus 35.25) currently have their own lofty perch, too, with historically elite KenPom numbers. Consider: only six teams have finished with a net efficiency of at least plus 35 in KenPom's history: Duke 1998-99, Duke 2000-01 (37.32), Kansas 2007-08 (35.21), Kentucky 2014-15 (36.91), Gonzaga 2020-21 (36.48) and UConn 2023-24 (36.43). Of that group, three teams — Duke 2001, Kansas and UConn — won a national title. Of this year's Final Four teams, Duke, Houston and Auburn have ranked inside the top five in all of KenPom's daily rankings. Florida started the year at No. 26, but cracked the top 10 by late November. 'You need to have depth and need to have multiple guys that can step up when other guys aren't playing their best,' Florida coach Todd Golden said after Saturday's comeback win against Texas Tech for the program's first Final Four trip since 2014. 'That's why we've been good all year and consistent, why we haven't lost two in a row. We haven't got in any droughts or situations where nobody's stepping up.' Now the Gators are part of a quartet ranked 1-2-3-4 in some order of KenPom's daily rankings dating to Feb. 12, while Auburn (80) and Duke (50) have combined to hold the No. 1 spot 89.7% of the time in the 145 rankings dating to Nov. 4. Along the way, Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference ) and Houston (Big 12 ) went 19-1 in league play before winning three games for their league tournament title. Auburn won the regular season and Florida claimed the tournament title in the a Southeastern Conference that produced a record 14 NCAA bids. The only other time a Final Four featured four 1-seeds came in 2008, with Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and North Carolina making it to through the first two weeks of the NCAA Tournament. Coincidentally, that Final Four also came in San Antonio. This time could mark a coronation for a team that, from a data standpoint, ranks among the sport's best teams in decades. 'It's been the most dominant run by four teams that I can remember,' Oglesby said. 'It's amazing to see really.' ___ AP March Madness bracket: and coverage: Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. Aaron Beard, The Associated Press
New York Times
27-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Men's March Madness Sweet 16 matchups to watch: Duke vs. Caleb Love, Auburn's big problem
Amid the stunning spins of the coaching carousel and the frantic movement in the transfer portal, it's easy to forget the NCAA Tournament still has quite a few games left. The Sweet 16 begins Thursday night with multiple high-caliber matchups, which will hopefully help make up for the lack of instant classics in the event's opening weekend. Advertisement Here's a look at a key factor (or two) to watch in each Sweet 16 showdown. The schedule-makers smiled down on tournament viewers for this round of games, immediately giving fans a delectable matchup of lethal offenses. Both teams rank top-10 in offensive efficiency, per KenPom; Bart Torvik slots Alabama No. 4 and BYU No. 5. Add in Alabama's breakneck tempo and BYU's general willingness to embrace that pace, and this one should be a fireworks show. When BYU has the ball, watch how frequently the Cougars can manufacture open perimeter jumpers. They have feasted from beyond the arc during their late-season surge, hitting 10-plus 3-pointers in 10 of their last 15 games. The long ball opens up the paint. And although Alabama's defense is suspect overall, it limits catch-and-shoot jumpers at an elite rate. Opponents instead have to live in the midrange/floater area because the Tide refuse to help off shooters: Alabama forced Saint Mary's to take 15 runners in their round-of-32 matchup Sunday, an astronomically high number. For comparison, Florida took just two such attempts when it pulverized Alabama in the SEC tournament. BYU can be effective in that range, but on the whole, those shots are significantly less efficient than catch-and-shoot jumpers. One small thing to watch for here is whether the tight travel timeline has any negative impact on Florida, which played in Raleigh on Sunday, quickly flew back home, then headed west to San Francisco. Maryland simply flew south from Seattle, having already acclimated to the West Coast. On the court, though, Florida might have a key matchup advantage. Maryland's loaded starting lineup, aka the Crab Five, has fueled the Terps' success, but the secret sauce has been their ability to play through their bigs. Julian Reese and Derik Queen are comfortable working downhill with the ball in their hands, specifically as the roll men in ball screens. Though it did not come off a pick-and-roll, Queen's buzzer-beater against Colorado State on Sunday displayed his off-the-bounce acumen. Advertisement The Gators, however, are loaded with huge and mobile defenders in the frontcourt. Rueben Chinyelu and Alex Condon start, and Thomas Haugh has evolved into a sixth starter off the bench. And this matchup might be the one in which Micah Handlogten, the 7-footer who recently returned from a broken leg, makes his impact felt the most. Players similar to Queen and Reese have struggled against the Gators. National player of the year candidate Johni Broome needed 19 field goal attempts to tally 18 points against this stout front line. Other skilled bigs, like Georgia's Asa Newell, Tennessee's Igor Milicic Jr. and Alabama's Grant Nelson, have also had issues. If Queen and Reese cannot get going, the scoring burden might fall too heavily on Maryland's trio of guards. One of two in-season rematches in this round (Kentucky-Tennessee is the other), Arizona and Duke have some head-to-head game tape to explore. However, both teams have shifted somewhat drastically since they met in November: Duke is playing through Cooper Flagg more and has firmly entrenched Sion James in the starting lineup over Caleb Foster, and Arizona lost center Motiejus Krivas to injury and has leaned more on Henri Veesaar and Tobe Awaka up front. Duke's immense size at every position made its impact felt in the first meeting. The Blue Devils dominated the glass 43-30, and their long perimeter defenders limited Wildcat talisman Caleb Love to a poor 3-of-13 shooting night, including 1-of-9 from deep. As has been the case for his entire college career, Love's team goes as he goes. He erupted for 29 points, nine rebounds and four assists in Arizona's round-of-32 win over Oregon on Sunday night, and he will need to find that form for the underdog Wildcats to have a chance against Duke. In that November meeting with his old archrival, the former Tar Heel looked like he was pressing, forcing some deep jumpers early in the shot clock: Love has had monster games against Duke before, including his 28-point explosion to end Mike Krzyzewski's career in the 2022 Final Four. With lanky defenders like James and Tyrese Proctor hounding him, can he rediscover that NCAA Tournament magic? If not, Duke could steamroll Arizona for another easy double-digit victory. Advertisement Arkansas is the last team lower than a No. 6 seed remaining in the tournament. The Razorbacks hardly look like an upstart, though, boasting immense positional size (18th nationally in average height, per KenPom). They will need to use that size against Texas Tech's smaller perimeter. The Hogs' wings consistently got downhill and drew contact against St. John's on Saturday, with freshmen Karter Knox and Billy Richmond combining to shoot 18 free throws. With athletic forward Adou Thiero due back from injury, albeit with a minutes restriction, the Razorbacks could find even more success getting to the charity stripe against a Red Raiders defense that can be prone to fouling. On the other end, though, Texas Tech can repeatedly attack Arkansas' pick-and-roll defense with JT Toppin as the roll man. The Red Raiders love to feed their star southpaw via the pocket pass and let him go to work in space against rotating defenses: That setup can be tough to use against switching teams, but Arkansas generally plays its bigs more around the level of the screen, opening that pocket pass. As a result, opposing roll men have feasted on Arkansas' defense. Per Synergy, opposing roll men have tallied 1.166 points per possession against the Razorbacks this season, ranking the Hogs' defense in the bottom 10 percent nationally against that look. If Toppin has a monster game Thursday night, that will likely be why. Friday's opener brings together two teams that have found great success in winning the shot volume battle on a nightly basis but in vastly different ways. For Ole Miss, it happens via turnovers: The Rebels rank fourth nationally in turnover margin. The Rebels' veteran guards are all sure-handed, and their lone interior force, Malik Dia, never coughs it up despite using a ton of possessions in the paint. Advertisement The Spartans, on the other hand, dominate the glass, ranking second in Division I in rebounding margin, bludgeoning the boards on both ends with a deep and physical stable of towering big men led by Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper. If either team can negate the other's huge strength — either by the Rebels battling on the boards or Michigan State taking care of the rock — it will gain an important edge against the opponent's typical area of control. One other key matchup tug-of-war: Ole Miss' constant switching defensively forces isolation possessions at one of the highest rates in the country. Chris Beard's defense is tough to beat via ball and man movement. Unfortunately, those are the staples of Michigan State's offense, which ranks 17th nationally in assist rate, per KenPom, but a dismal 342nd in frequency of Isolations Including Passes and 337th in efficiency in Isolations Including Passes, per Synergy. If MSU has to play one-on-one basketball, it will desperately need a big game from diaper dandy Jase Richardson. It is and will always be a make-or-miss sport, so pardon the rationalization here, but Kentucky's 2-0 record against Tennessee during the regular season warrants a significant asterisk. In those two games, Kentucky shot a scorching 24-of-48 (50 percent) from beyond the arc. The Vols, meanwhile, sank just 14 of 63 (22.2 percent) from deep, and that poor shooting doomed them. Perhaps more significant than the success rate for Tennessee, though, was the volume. The Vols are generally a willing and capable perimeter scoring team, particularly when Chaz Lanier is torching the nets. However, in their first meeting, Kentucky's compact perimeter shell baited Tennessee into taking 45 3s compared to just 27 2s, an alarmingly strong tilt to the outside. Advertisement In the second meeting, head coach Rick Barnes and his staff emphasized getting inside. The Vols took 36 2s compared to just 18 3s in that meeting, and they dominated the paint, shooting 56 percent inside the arc, winning the rebounding battle 33-26 and making more free throws (15) than Kentucky attempted (14). Had the 3-point splits not been so wildly tilted toward UK, it would have been an important road win for the Volunteers. Mark Pope is a smart coach, and he knows his team is the better group from long range. Thus, he would be happy to tempt Tennessee into another shooting contest. Should the Vols oblige, Kentucky has a great chance to win. If Tennessee pounds it inside via drives, cuts and the offensive glass, then the advantage shifts hard toward Barnes' squad. Auburn's frontcourt struggled in the round of 32 against the incomparable defensive pillar that is Creighton's Ryan Kalkbrenner. Johni Broome was merely pedestrian against the Bluejays behemoth, managing just 8 points and 12 rebounds and going 4-of-13 from the field, and Dylan Cardwell contributed just 6 points and four rebounds. Instead, the Tigers' backcourt had to carry them past Greg McDermott's stubborn squad. It does not get much easier for Auburn, as Michigan's twin-tower lineup of 7-footers Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin awaits in the Sweet 16. That duo takes away the rim entirely; per CBB Analytics, opponents take just 22.9 percent of their field goals there (in the bottom 3 percent nationally) while shooting just 59.0 percent (in the bottom 20 percent). If Broome struggles again with Wolf and Goldin patrolling the paint, can Auburn's guards win the Tigers another game on this stage? The Wolverines need to attack Auburn inside on the other end, as well. In all five Auburn losses this season, the Tigers have surrendered at least 10 offensive rebounds, including a staggering 24 to Texas A&M. Michigan is fresh off corralling 16 of its own misses against those same Aggies, so the Wolverines could find major success on the glass. Advertisement Unfortunately for Michigan, few teams appear better suited to defend the unconventional Wolf-Goldin pick-and-roll than Auburn. Broome and Cardwell are huge and mobile, so the Tigers can simply switch that action and force other Wolverines to beat them. Can Roddy Gayle Jr. go nuts again after a season-high 26 points? If this game becomes a stalemate inside, it could come down to a battle of the backcourts. On one end, Houston's offense should be able to do what it does, even against an improving Purdue defense. That means launching jumpers via LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan, attacking through J'Wan Roberts at the elbow and dominating the offensive glass. Purdue will have to play bigger lineups to compete on the boards when either of those strategies fails. When Purdue has the ball, though, the chess match could be particularly intriguing. Houston famously plays ball screens as aggressively as any team in the country, trapping the ballhandler with two defenders and recovering aggressively behind them. That would take the ball out of Big Ten player of the year Braden Smith's hands, forcing him to beat those traps with tough passes and prove he is fully past the turnover demons that have haunted him at times. With Smith coming off a career-high eight miscues against McNeese in the round of 32, Houston's harassing defenders are likely frothing at the mouth. If Smith can get passes through, it shifts playmaking duties to Trey Kaufman-Renn in the short roll. Few Big Ten teams deploy ball screen coverages like Houston's, so most of Kaufman-Renn's 76 assists have come out of the post. But McNeese's aggression gave him decent practice in the short roll, where he showed decent poise (albeit against a lesser version of Houston): Everything will look significantly more frenetic against the Cougars' defense. But if Kaufman-Renn shows up as a playmaker and Purdue's shooters hit weakside jumpers, the Boilermakers can give Houston a real fight. (Photo of Caleb Love: Chris Coduto / Getty Images)
