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Yahoo
2 days ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
Wisconsin basketball guard projected as one of nation's leading scorers
With college football just around the corner, preview work for the college basketball season is taking a back seat. However, Wisconsin fans have reason to be excited for the 2025-2026 campaign. The Badgers are expected to be one of the better teams in both the Big Ten and the entire sport. One of the players who will determine Wisconsin's success is junior guard John Blackwell, who is poised to make a significant jump as the team's top option. According to a website dedicated to college basketball data and analysis, Blackwell is projected as one of the highest scoring players in the sport this winter. Torvik has Blackwell with the ninth-highest projected points per game total, just below Ohio State's Bruce Thornton and BYU's AJ Dybantsa. Wisconsin's transfer portal class of Nick Boyd, Andrew Rohde, Austin Rapp and others will be crucial for the team's success this upcoming season. Still, roster retention remains the most important thing in the current age of college sports. Returning contributors like Blackwell, Nolan Winter, and Jack Janicki should have just as much of a say in the team's success. Expect a big year from Blackwell and the rest of his Badgers teammates. Contact/Follow on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes and opinion This article originally appeared on Badgers Wire: Wisconsin basketball John Blackwell scoring projection Bart Torvik
New York Times
02-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
2025 NBA Draft stay-or-go decisions: 11 who loom large for 2025-26 college basketball season
The call of the NBA is an ever-present threat for college basketball rosters. What can look like a stacked roster for next season could lose a surprising piece that undercuts a possible national championship contender. With the advent of name, image and likeness (and the resultant influx of cash for top players), college hoops has fought back. Potential draftees, especially those late in the first round and into the second, now have to consider the NIL payday they would forgo should they choose to start their professional careers. Advertisement That's led to some surprising returners to college. A year ago, Walter Clayton Jr. chose to chase a national title rather than enter the pro ranks; that turned out well for Clayton and the Gators. Johni Broome also eschewed the draft and helped power Auburn to the Final Four. As chaotic and entertaining as the transfer portal is, keeping star-caliber pieces in college is vital to building a truly elite team. The 2025 early-entry deadline already has some clear winners: Texas Tech managed to convince All-American JT Toppin to avoid testing the waters, and two-time national champion Alex Karaban is returning to UConn for a fourth season. The Red Raiders and the Huskies will likely find their way into many preseason top 10s in part due to this retention of potential draft picks. Many other decisions that will drastically impact the 2026 national title picture still hang in the balance, though. Following the NBA's release of the full list of early entrants, the below collection of players all have significant choices that could push their schools into the forefront of the college basketball world. Note: To illustrate the significance of each decision, we've included each team's national ranking at with and without the player on the roster using Torvik's Roster Cast tool, which allows you to alter teams' roster constructions to see the impact of individual players. Bart Torvik rank with Uzan: 1 Bart Torvik rank without: 1 (incredibly) Though most of the Houston headlines all season went to LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and J'Wan Roberts, Uzan was the secret engine to a Cougars squad that came within a possession of a national championship. Taking over at point guard for program legend Jamal Shead, the Oklahoma transfer got off to a slow start, but his steady improvement — particularly as a potent offensive threat — mirrored the trajectory of Houston as a whole. Cougars coach Kelvin Sampson reiterated that point after Uzan's game-winning layup against Purdue in the Sweet 16. With Uzan back in the fold to join Sharp, defensive player of the year candidate JoJo Tugler and a loaded recruiting class, Houston would be a no-doubt top-five team in preseason rankings (and very arguably the No. 1 squad). Without him, though, Houston would need a serious lift from incoming transfer Pop Isaacs, as Uzan's shot creation — not to mention his smothering defensive presence on the perimeter — would be sorely missed. That would still be a top 10 or so team but with enough questions to perhaps fall below the top tier of contenders. Advertisement Torvik rank with Oweh: 11 Torvik rank without: 16 Mark Pope's first season in Lexington made it clear the Wildcats are firmly entrenched as contenders in the SEC. Kentucky's spending in the transfer portal this offseason — basically a Los Angeles Dodgers-esque spree — has given Pope an extremely promising roster for his encore campaign. To truly be a national championship contender, though, Pope needs Oweh to return for his senior season. The hyperathletic wing, who like Uzan began his career at Oklahoma (apologies to Sooners fans), ascended to stardom for Big Blue Nation. On a deep and balanced roster, Oweh's athletic slashing and harassing defense became indispensable. He'd give Kentucky the All-American candidate needed to exist in the highest echelon of preseason prognostications. Torvik rank with Lendeborg: 4 Torvik rank without: 20 Led by a dominant big man duo in Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, Michigan made the Sweet 16 in Dusty May's first season in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines tripled down on the frontcourt this offseason, reeling in three more gems via the portal: Lendeborg (UAB), Morez Johnson Jr. (Illinois) and Aday Mara (UCLA). That combination would terrorize opponents for 40 minutes at the rim and on the boards. Whether the trio ever plays together, though, hinges on Lendeborg's NBA Draft decision. The former junior college star is already an older prospect (he'll be 23 in September), and he could choose to take his versatile, physical game to the pros. Michigan would still be in good shape without him as a chief contender to Purdue in the Big Ten, but having Lendeborg as a do-it-all double-double machine would raise the ceiling in Ann Arbor considerably. Torvik rank with Condon: 9 Torvik rank without: 19 Advertisement The Gators' shocking run to the national title came in large part due to a supremely talented trio of shot makers on the perimeter. Clayton, Alijah Martin and Will Richard all had major moments of brilliance during their March run. But Florida's deep and physical frontcourt was an overlooked aspect of its success. Todd Golden could cycle body after body in the paint to bludgeon opponents and wear them down over 40 minutes, and both Condon and Rueben Chinyelu — the Gators' two starters — were crucial parts of that rotation. Chinyelu is also gauging NBA interest but is generally expected to return to school; however, the physical Australian Condon is much more of a true toss-up. He struggled in the NCAA Tournament after an ankle injury late in the season, so he could be best served to return to school and show off his talents once more while leading the Florida front line for what would be a top 10-15 team heading into the year. Torvik rank with Bryant: 4 Torvik rank without: 15 Like Florida, Arizona has two players testing the draft waters, with Jaden Bradley joining Bryant in that endeavor. Bradley is strongly expected to return, though, while the uber-talented Bryant feels like a true coin flip on where he will end up. He came on strong as Arizona's season progressed; he logged 20-plus minutes just once in Arizona's first 10 games, but he cracked that mark in 16 of the final 18 contests. In doing so, he displayed the kind of versatility and floor-stretching game that will make pro scouts pay attention. That seemed like just the beginning for the high-upside forward. He was frequently deferential to Arizona's veterans on the offensive end, registering the lowest usage in the team's rotation. Should he return, he's an obvious breakout candidate with more touches and shots headed his way. If he's back for that potential star turn, Arizona will be in the Big 12 and national mix, but if not, the Wildcats will be in the second tier of both. Torvik rank with Coward and Evans: 4 Torvik rank without Coward, with Evans: 4 Torvik rank without Evans, with Coward: 5 Torvik rank without both: 7 Duke came within a monumental final-minute collapse against Houston of playing for a national title. Jon Scheyer has done a tremendous job of maintaining Duke's status among the elite in college basketball, and although his 2025-26 team will not have Cooper Flagg on it, the Blue Devils have the talent to make a return trip to the Final Four. Advertisement Even with a killer freshman class, though, a large portion of the upside hinges on whether the nucleus will include Coward, a transfer from Washington State, and Evans, an incendiary scorer due for a major role increase as a sophomore. Both players offer enticing wing skill sets to the NBA, but both could maximize their draft position with a banner year in big roles for an elite team. Every member of this foursome remains in the transfer portal as of this writing. Any member of this group could drastically alter the outlook of a team, pushing that squad toward the national title picture. Haggerty, an All-American scoring guard at Memphis, is an instant cheat code to an efficient offense thanks to his devastating dribble moves, finishing ability inside and knack for getting to the charity stripe. Williams is a quintessential do-it-all winner capable of serving as a mid-post hub on offense and multipositional force on defense. Fland showed off his scoring and passing genes at Arkansas as a rookie, and he could explode as a sophomore thanks to his prodigious talents. And finally, Watkins is a matchup problem, a big wing/forward who could be an ace second banana for a great team. Keep an eye on whether any of this group chooses to return to college — and where they end up if they do. (Top photos of Otega Oweh and Isaiah Evans: Andy Lyons, Grant Halverson / Getty Images)
USA Today
04-04-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
1 reason why each team in the men's Final Four will (and won't!) win March Madness
1 reason why each team in the men's Final Four will (and won't!) win March Madness We know that the winner of the men's March Madness tournament will come from one of the No. 1 seeds. But what does each team have going that can push them over the edge? On the other end of the spectrum, what is the fatal flaw that will cause any of these top-seeded teams to tumble on the biggest stage? Each team has made a legitimate case for why they are deserving title winners over the course of the season and rank as the four best in the nation, per KenPom. But only one can team actually cut down the nets at the conclusion of the tournament. Here is the best case for each team and the reason why these rosters could potentially fall short, too. Why They Will Win: Duke has the best player in the nation in Cooper Flagg but he is also surrounded by several other future NBA players, too. Khaman Maluach and Kon Knueppel are both projected lottery picks while both Tyrese Proctor and Isaiah Evans could hear their names called in the 2025 NBA Draft as well. This is an extraordinarily talented roster that is built to cut down the nets. The Blue Devils are the only team that ranks top-5 in both offense and defense, which should give them an edge to win it all. Why They Won't Win: Dating back to 2008-09, per KenPom, the average roster continuity of a national champion is 57.1 percent. Among the four teams remaining, three have a continuity percentage better than 54.1 percent. Lowest in the group is Duke, whose continuity percentage is just 20.9 percent. No men's team on record has won a national championship with a continuity percentage lower than 33.2 percent. Duke (7-3) also has the fewest "wins above bubble" against top-25 teams among those still remaining in the tournament this season, via Bart Torvik. Why They Will Win: The Florida Gators do a great job to grab a ton of offensive rebounds, create a lot of second-chance opportunities, and led the nation in fastbreak points scored. Walter Clayton Jr. has looked like an ace floor general capable of winning it all for this roster. Why They Won't Win: Florida has a much worse defensive rating (111.0) than the other teams remaining in the tournament including Auburn (94.7), Houston (95.1), and Duke (102.7). The Gators also have committed the most turnovers (53) of any team during March Madness. Houston Cougars Why They Will Win: Houston had the best defense in men's college basketball, the most roster continuity of all teams that made the Sweet 16, and they have a veteran coach who brags previous years of experience coaching in the Final Four. Defense wins championships and Houston has played the best against top-25 teams among all teams this season, per Bart Torvik. Why They Won't Win: It takes NBA talent to win a championship. Since 1976, every single NCAA men's champion has had at least one first-round pick on its roster. Per Rookie Scale: Duke has three players projected as top-10 picks and five players as top-40 picks. Auburn has a player (Auburn) projected as a top-35 pick. Florida has two players (Alex Condon and Walter Clayton Jr.) projected as top-50 picks. Houston does not have anyone projected in the top-50. Additionally, via Burner Ball, each national champion since 2003-04 has ranked No. 12 or better in the Week 6 AP poll. Houston ranked No. 16 in that poll, which would buck that trend. More: 1 NBA Draft fact about March Madness means good news for these 5 teams, including Duke Why They Will Win: There is a reason why Auburn alum Charles Barkley said Johni Broome can beat him as the best player in program history. The big man is remarkably talented and productive and helping lead this dominant Auburn team, which has the most wins (19) against Quad 1 opponents. Freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford has been one of the most impactful players in the tournament thus far and could continue his hot streak with another couple strong performances as well. Why They Won't Win: Houston is currently enjoying a 17-game winning streak. Duke is in the midst of a 15-game winning streak. Florida has won ten games in a row. Auburn, however, is just 7-3 in their last ten games and have shown the most signs of weakness of any of these remaining teams recently. Since March 4, three of the four best teams (Florida, Houston, and Duke) based on "wins above bubble" remain in the tournament. Auburn ranks 80th in this metric since that date, via Bart Torvik, which is significantly worse than their competition in that span. Auburn's offensive rating in the tournament (113.2) is significantly lower than Duke (138.1), Florida (128.4), and Houston (122.1). Meanwhile, their best player Johni Broome left their most recent game with an elbow injury, which could make an impact.
Fox Sports
31-03-2025
- Sport
- Fox Sports
Efficiency metrics touted Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn all year. Now they're in the Final Four
Associated Press The data told the story all year on Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn. In that regard, it shouldn't be a surprise to see them in the Final Four as only the second all-chalk set of 1-seeds to reach college basketball's final stage. The Blue Devils, Cougars, Gators and Tigers had held the top four spots in daily rankings from KenPom since the first half of February, and their net efficiency ranks among the best ever charted by the analytics site going back more than a quarter-century. They were also the headliners on data-driven rankings from Bart Torvik and Evan Miyakawa as well, further confirmation of how good these teams have been from November, through March Madness and now entering San Antonio. There's only a few minor variations in those comparisons. Duke is No. 1 for KenPom and Miyakawa ahead of Houston, while the Cougars are No. 1 in Torvik ahead of the Blue Devils. And the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are all in the top 10 except for Torvik having the Gators at 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Otherwise, the data matches the eye test. College and NBA TV analyst Terrence Oglesby, who played at Clemson, pointed to all four having 'big, switchable guys who can make shots" as a common thread between the teams operating at elite efficiency on both sides of the ball. 'Outside of that top four, a lot of people were depending on runs,' Oglesby said. 'You have to be able to play both sides of the ball with consistency. And these four do that so much better than everyone else.' And that applies over years, too, when it comes to KenPom's long-running data. KenPom bases efficiency metrics on points scored or allowed over a standardized 100-possession pace, which eliminates tempo as a factor in high averages boosted by playing at a faster pace or numbers depressed by grind-down-the-clock styles. The overall rankings are determined by net efficiency in terms of how much a team's offensive data outpaces its defensive numbers. In that regard, Duke's plus-39.62 rating is the second-highest net efficiency recorded by KenPom in data back to the 1996-97 season. Only the Blue Devils' 1998-99 team (plus 43.01) that went 37-2 and lost in the NCAA title game ranks higher. Duke is coming off a defensive masterclass in the East Region final against 2-seed Alabama, which had scored 113 points and hit 25 3-pointers in its Sweet 16 win against BYU. The Blue Devils have the nation's tallest roster with every rotation player standing 6-feet-5 or taller, and they're an elite switching group with bigs using their length to capably contest against smaller, quicker guards out to the arc. That helped them smother the Crimson Tide: Alabama went 8 of 32 from 3-point range, made just 45.4% of its two point shots and averaged .942 points per possession. Its 65-point output joined a January loss to Ole Miss (64) as the only times the Tide failed to reach 70 points in the past two seasons. 'Duke is as good a team as we've seen all year,' Alabama coach Nate Oats said. "We've got some really good teams in the SEC, and they're at that level.' Houston (plus 36.49), Florida (plus 36.05) and Auburn (plus 35.25) currently have their own lofty perch, too, with historically elite KenPom numbers. Consider: only six teams have finished with a net efficiency of at least plus 35 in KenPom's history: Duke 1998-99, Duke 2000-01 (37.32), Kansas 2007-08 (35.21), Kentucky 2014-15 (36.91), Gonzaga 2020-21 (36.48) and UConn 2023-24 (36.43). Of that group, three teams — Duke 2001, Kansas and UConn — won a national title. Of this year's Final Four teams, Duke, Houston and Auburn have ranked inside the top five in all of KenPom's daily rankings. Florida started the year at No. 26, but cracked the top 10 by late November. 'You need to have depth and need to have multiple guys that can step up when other guys aren't playing their best,' Florida coach Todd Golden said after Saturday's comeback win against Texas Tech for the program's first Final Four trip since 2014. 'That's why we've been good all year and consistent, why we haven't lost two in a row. We haven't got in any droughts or situations where nobody's stepping up.' Now the Gators are part of a quartet ranked 1-2-3-4 in some order of KenPom's daily rankings dating to Feb. 12, while Auburn (80) and Duke (50) have combined to hold the No. 1 spot 89.7% of the time in the 145 rankings dating to Nov. 4. Along the way, Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference ) and Houston (Big 12 ) went 19-1 in league play before winning three games for their league tournament title. Auburn won the regular season and Florida claimed the tournament title in the a Southeastern Conference that produced a record 14 NCAA bids. The only other time a Final Four featured four 1-seeds came in 2008, with Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and North Carolina making it to through the first two weeks of the NCAA Tournament. Coincidentally, that Final Four also came in San Antonio. This time could mark a coronation for a team that, from a data standpoint, ranks among the sport's best teams in decades. 'It's been the most dominant run by four teams that I can remember,' Oglesby said. 'It's amazing to see really.' ___ AP March Madness bracket: and coverage: Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. recommended
Yahoo
31-03-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Efficiency metrics touted Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn all year. Now they're in the Final Four
The data told the story all year on Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn. In that regard, it shouldn't be a surprise to see them in the Final Four as only the second all-chalk set of 1-seeds to reach college basketball's final stage. The Blue Devils, Cougars, Gators and Tigers had held the top four spots in daily rankings from KenPom since the first half of February, and their net efficiency ranks among the best ever charted by the analytics site going back more than a quarter-century. They were also the headliners on data-driven rankings from Bart Torvik and Evan Miyakawa as well, further confirmation of how good these teams have been from November, through March Madness and now entering San Antonio. There's only a few minor variations in those comparisons. Duke is No. 1 for KenPom and Miyakawa ahead of Houston, while the Cougars are No. 1 in Torvik ahead of the Blue Devils. And the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are all in the top 10 except for Torvik having the Gators at 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Otherwise, the data matches the eye test. College and NBA TV analyst Terrence Oglesby, who played at Clemson, pointed to all four having 'big, switchable guys who can make shots" as a common thread between the teams operating at elite efficiency on both sides of the ball. 'Outside of that top four, a lot of people were depending on runs,' Oglesby said. 'You have to be able to play both sides of the ball with consistency. And these four do that so much better than everyone else.' And that applies over years, too, when it comes to KenPom's long-running data. KenPom bases efficiency metrics on points scored or allowed over a standardized 100-possession pace, which eliminates tempo as a factor in high averages boosted by playing at a faster pace or numbers depressed by grind-down-the-clock styles. The overall rankings are determined by net efficiency in terms of how much a team's offensive data outpaces its defensive numbers. In that regard, Duke's plus-39.62 rating is the second-highest net efficiency recorded by KenPom in data back to the 1996-97 season. Only the Blue Devils' 1998-99 team (plus 43.01) that went 37-2 and lost in the NCAA title game ranks higher. Duke is coming off a defensive masterclass in the East Region final against 2-seed Alabama, which had scored 113 points and hit 25 3-pointers in its Sweet 16 win against BYU. The Blue Devils have the nation's tallest roster with every rotation player standing 6-feet-5 or taller, and they're an elite switching group with bigs using their length to capably contest against smaller, quicker guards out to the arc. That helped them smother the Crimson Tide: Alabama went 8 of 32 from 3-point range, made just 45.4% of its two point shots and averaged .942 points per possession. Its 65-point output joined a January loss to Ole Miss (64) as the only times the Tide failed to reach 70 points in the past two seasons. 'Duke is as good a team as we've seen all year,' Alabama coach Nate Oats said. "We've got some really good teams in the SEC, and they're at that level.' Houston (plus 36.49), Florida (plus 36.05) and Auburn (plus 35.25) currently have their own lofty perch, too, with historically elite KenPom numbers. Consider: only six teams have finished with a net efficiency of at least plus 35 in KenPom's history: Duke 1998-99, Duke 2000-01 (37.32), Kansas 2007-08 (35.21), Kentucky 2014-15 (36.91), Gonzaga 2020-21 (36.48) and UConn 2023-24 (36.43). Of that group, three teams — Duke 2001, Kansas and UConn — won a national title. Of this year's Final Four teams, Duke, Houston and Auburn have ranked inside the top five in all of KenPom's daily rankings. Florida started the year at No. 26, but cracked the top 10 by late November. 'You need to have depth and need to have multiple guys that can step up when other guys aren't playing their best,' Florida coach Todd Golden said after Saturday's comeback win against Texas Tech for the program's first Final Four trip since 2014. 'That's why we've been good all year and consistent, why we haven't lost two in a row. We haven't got in any droughts or situations where nobody's stepping up.' Now the Gators are part of a quartet ranked 1-2-3-4 in some order of KenPom's daily rankings dating to Feb. 12, while Auburn (80) and Duke (50) have combined to hold the No. 1 spot 89.7% of the time in the 145 rankings dating to Nov. 4. Along the way, Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference ) and Houston (Big 12 ) went 19-1 in league play before winning three games for their league tournament title. Auburn won the regular season and Florida claimed the tournament title in the a Southeastern Conference that produced a record 14 NCAA bids. The only other time a Final Four featured four 1-seeds came in 2008, with Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and North Carolina making it to through the first two weeks of the NCAA Tournament. Coincidentally, that Final Four also came in San Antonio. This time could mark a coronation for a team that, from a data standpoint, ranks among the sport's best teams in decades. 'It's been the most dominant run by four teams that I can remember,' Oglesby said. 'It's amazing to see really.' ___ AP March Madness bracket: and coverage: Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. Aaron Beard, The Associated Press
