Jung Hoo Lee's slump is a symptom of the type of hitter he is — and is likely temporary

New York Times

4 hours ago

The Giants have played .500 ball over their last 73 games. The fast start was a lot of fun, but it wasn't very sustainable, as it turns out. Robbie Ray won't finish with a 20-0 record. Wilmer Flores will fall short of 150 RBIs. A lot of the magic from the first couple weeks was temporary, and that's OK. Even the most optimistic Giants fans knew there were corrections and regressions coming.
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The hope, then, was that there would be enough sustainable brilliance to keep them afloat. Logan Webb would have to keep acing (check). Heliot Ramos would have to hit like 2024 first-half Heliot instead of 2024 second-half Heliot (check). And, of course, Jung Hoo Lee would have to maintain his superstar trajectory. Which he was obviously going to do.
You know what happened next:
Seasoned consumers of nerd stats know which column is going to get the most attention, and we'll get there. But if it's felt like Lee has been hitting like a sub-Mendoza line hitter over the last month, that's because he has been. He's been a contributor in the field and on the bases, but his slump is one of the biggest reasons the Giants are struggling to score runs. It might be the biggest reason.
There's no sense saving his low batting average on balls in play (BABIP) as some sort of twist for the end of the article. It's a part of the story, and it might actually be the entire story. Blaming BABIP is the sabermetric equivalent of entering a baking soda volcano into a science fair, so get your third-place ribbons ready, but sometimes it's the obvious answer because it's the correct one. Lee has had two consecutive months where he didn't get nearly as many hits as expected.
And that's just comparing Lee to the average player. A player with his speed should have a resting BABIP a little higher than the league average (.291). Hitting the ball and running fast is a time-honored baseball strategy, and it shows up in the BABIPs of faster players. Lee's BABIP right now would only make sense if he ran like a Molina brother carrying another Molina brother. Everything we know about batting average and balls in play suggests this is just a hiccup. The hits will start falling, and the world will make sense again.
The good news is that Lee isn't the kind of hitter who will hit like this for very long. The bad news is that he's exactly the kind of hitter who will have long stretches like this at some point. If the question is 'Is Lee as good as he was in April, or is he as bad as he's been in June?', the answer is 'yes.' He's both. Call it the Juan Pierre Paradox or the Steven Kwan Conundrum: High-contact, low-power players will forever be terrorized by the BABIPdook. They live by the ball in play, and they die by the ball in play.
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In the first month of the season, Lee sprayed balls over the short Yankee Stadium porch and led the league in doubles, suggesting above-average power that was both welcome and unexpected. A player with Lee's skill set and 25-homer power is the type of player who gets MVP votes at the end of the season. It feels safe to put that dream to rest, though. He's almost certainly a known quantity now, a member of the predictably unpredictable group of high-contact, low-power players. This both is and isn't the kind of hitter you should expect from now on.
By law, I'm required to mention Steven Kwan several more times in an article like this. Some counties require Luis Arráez references, too. That's because they're exactly the kind of hitters Lee should be compared to. They're the obvious comps because they're the correct ones. When you go to Lee's Baseball Savant page, you'll see a lot of blue (bad) and red (good). It's the exact same profile that you'll find on Kwan's page and Arráez's. Lots of squared-up contact, without any exciting exit velocities.
Is Kwan the kind of player who will hit .374/.436/.582 for a month, or is he the kind of player who will hit .207/.313/.297 for a month? The answer is yes. He's both, with those numbers representing his slash lines from last June and August, respectively. Month-by-month splits for Arráez will make you just as seasick. These guys are either the greatest hitters in the world or the worst hitters in the league for long stretches at a time. That's the kind of player you should expect Lee to be, and you'll have no warning which version is going to show up in any given month.
Some hitters with this profile will have entire seasons that go in just one direction, making it seem like they've hit some sort of sustainable high or ominous low for their career. They'll almost invariably return to their predictably unpredictable ways the next season. Lee might make an entire season out of Aprils one of these years, but he'll always be the kind of hitter with a June lurking around the corner. The reverse is also true, for better or worse. They're maddening players, these high-contact, low-power types. But it's so fun when it works.
The good news is that Lee's defensive profile and baserunning make him a helpful player, even when he's not doing much at the plate. His slumps are costing his team runs, but he's finding them in other places. Compare that to Arráez, who's worth just 0.2 WAR while hitting .288/.317/.397 for the Padres this year. He can't hit like a regular schmoe and still help his team win. Lee can, which is more than a minor consolation prize.
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If there's a red flag in Lee's profile, it's that he's been consistently weaker against fastballs in his career, which might help explain why he's done less damage on pitches down the middle than the average hitter. That's bad news, considering they aren't making fastballs any slower these days. If Lee has to cheat to catch up with velocity, it'll expose him to breaking balls and make him take ugly swings. That's less of a hypothetical and more of a description of his last two months at the plate. It's possible that he'll adjust as he gets more exposure to MLB fastballs, or that he'll never adjust, and his struggles with velocity will always keep him from the highest highs of players like Kwan or Arráez. If he can't do more damage on fastballs, he'll start to get a 'poor man's' label slapped on before the comparisons. He might be in the same genre of player, but we don't know if he's at their level yet.
In the meantime, rest assured. The hits will start falling in for Jung Hoo Lee any day now. Aaaaaaaaany day now. It'll be fun while it lasts, but never forget that the BABIPdook is always hiding under the bed. That's the uncomfortable bargain these kinds of hitters have made.