Democrats draw up plans to retaliate if Republicans gerrymander Texas — but they face legal hurdles

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2 days ago

Democrats in America's two biggest blue states are hatching plans to respond in kind to a mid-decade move by Texas to draw a friendlier House map for Republicans.
Retaliation threats have come from California Gov. Gavin Newsom and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, who lead states where Democrats control large legislative majorities. Two can play at this game, they say, vowing to similarly eliminate GOP-held seats in their states.
But that's easier said than done.
Democrats have legal hurdles to clear in California and New York, which have restricted partisan gerrymandering, which liberal advocates pushed in previous years in the name of good government. Texas has no such limits, so GOP Gov. Greg Abbott has called a special session to draw a new map.
California eyes a 'triggered' map for 2026
California has an independent redistricting commission — a bipartisan panel tasked with drawing up fair maps for the Legislature to approve — to avoid partisan influence. Newsom is seeking to get around that on a temporary and targeted basis — but only if Texas enacts its GOP-favored map, which is aimed at giving Republicans up to five more seats in the U.S. House.
Newsom hopes to work with the Democratic-dominated Legislature starting this month to set up a special election for a statewide ballot measure on Nov. 4. It would offer a newly drawn map if Texas moves forward, a source close to Newsom told NBC News.
The ballot measure would do two things: First, it would affirm support for California's independent commission and call for fair redistricting nationwide. Second, it would include a trigger that says a pre-drawn new House map expected to boost Democrats would take effect if Texas implemented a new map.
'What we will say is for the '26, '28 and 2030 elections, these congressional maps on the ballot that voters are approving will be in place. ... The maps themselves will most likely be on the ballot,' said the source close to Newsom, who wasn't authorized to discuss the plan publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity. 'After the 2030 election, the redistricting commission does its job again, and we'll redraw starting in 2032.'
Newsom said that the maps are 'being processed' and that they will be 'provided in a transparent way to the public,' adding that under the plan, California voters would make the 'ultimate determination.'
'We're not going to roll over. And we're going to fight fire with fire,' Newsom said. 'We also will punch above our weight in terms of the impact of what we're doing. And I think that should be absorbed by those in the Texas delegation. Whatever they are doing will be neutered here in the state of California.'
Paul Mitchell, a California-based redistricting consultant who has advised Democrats, said any new House map would be constrained by the Voting Rights Act, as well as the governor's office and the Legislature, which would need to greenlight it.
'It's like having an emergency 'break glass' rather than an emergency 'burn down the house' measure,' Mitchell said, adding that voters support the independent commission and believe it should be replicated nationwide, in an ideal world.
'They're angry about what Texas is doing. They want to fight back,' he said. 'Voters can understand our long-term goal is this path of better democracy. If we do something, it's only because Texas did it. If Texas steps down today, then all this hubbub of redistricting in California goes away.'
How many Republican-held House seats could Democrats flip by drawing a new and friendlier map in California?
'The threshold is three, four or five seats,' Mitchell said, adding that a tangential goal would be to fortify Democrats in existing competitive seats and not do a 'dummy-mander' that might expose other Democratic lawmakers to problems.
New York may have to wait until 2028
In New York, changing the redistricting process must move forward as a legislatively referred constitutional amendment — a lengthy and arduous exercise that probably wouldn't lead to new congressional maps until the 2028 election cycle, even if Texas acts before the upcoming midterms.
'I wish I could just call a special election and change it. I'd do it in a heartbeat,' Hochul said recently on MSNBC's "All In with Chris Hayes." 'But we have a constitutional amendment process that's required first. I'm willing to do that. I'm working hard with our legislative leaders to pass legislation immediately — as soon as they return in January — pass it in this current session of the Legislature, go to the next one, which is required, so it won't be until 2027 we can get it on the ballot. But what would that mean — is that in 2028, we could have different lines.'
That's because the state's redistricting has been controlled for more than a decade by its own independent redistricting commission. New York voters passed a constitutional amendment changing the redistricting process back in 2014 to create the commission; previously, the Legislature controlled the entire process for legislative and congressional maps.
The new proposed amendment would return the duties of redrawing congressional districts to the Legislature — but only if another state engaged in mid-decade redistricting first. Because it's a proposed constitutional amendment, it would have to pass the Legislature in Albany in two consecutive sessions — this year and again in 2026 — and then still be approved by voters in a ballot measure in the subsequent year.
That means that whatever new maps that would be created wouldn't be in effect until the 2028 elections at the earliest.
'Otherwise, we have to wait until 2032,' Hochul said, referring to the decennial census process. 'And heaven help our country to find out what'll happen with that length of time.'
Democratic legislators in Albany acknowledged that the payoff would be delayed, but they said advancing the measure is still crucial, as long as Texas Republicans continue to advance their own.
'It's still worth it,' state Sen. Pat Fahy, a Democrat, told NBC News on the sidelines of the National Conference of State Legislatures annual meeting in Boston on Tuesday.
Fahy said it was 'really unfortunate' that New York Democrats felt forced to change years of precedent. 'But I'm willing to do it, because so much is at stake,' she said. 'This is about Congress, and it is about control, and it's unfortunate, but we have to do what we have to do.'
Responding to questions about the obstacles and delays, state Senate Deputy Majority Leader Michael Gianaris, who introduced the bill in his chamber, said in an email, 'What Texas is attempting is a perversion of our democracy and cannot be allowed to stand without a response.'
'This battle will not be over in 2026 and it behooves us to ensure New York is in the game if other states will be enacting off-cycle redistricting,' he said.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
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