NHL trade grades: Noah Dobson gives big boost to Canadiens' dynamic blue line
New York Islanders get: Two 2025 first-round draft picks (No. 16 and No. 17), F Emil Heineman
Mark Lazerus: The Canadiens took a massive step in their rebuild this past season, scratching and clawing their way into the playoffs. After years of waiting, it's no longer about the future for the Habs, it's about the present. Friday's massive trade made that perfectly clear, as they dealt away the Nos. 16 and 17 picks and Heineman, a 23-year-old winger, for Dobson, a high-octane 25-year-old defenseman. Whether Calder Trophy winner Lane Hutson moves back to his natural left side and pairs with Dobson or forms a pick-your-poison 1-2 punch on separate pairings, the Canadiens now have one of the most dynamic and exciting blue lines in the league. And will for years to come.
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Yes, Dobson is coming off a down season. Yes, he can be power-play dependent, and his power-play numbers dropped precipitously this past season. Yes, he's not exactly Jaccob Slavin or Miro Heiskanen defensively. But he's one year removed from a 70-point season, his underlying defensive numbers are middling at worst, and he's only 25. Most defensemen don't really hit their prime until their late 20s. The ceiling for Dobson is remarkably high, and to lock him at for eight years with a $9.5-million cap hit — which is probably below market value and should age incredibly well as the cap continues to rise — is quite a coup for the Canadiens, who already have plenty of talent on the back end with Hutson, Kaiden Guhle and Mike Matheson, not to mention David Reinbacher, the No. 5 pick in the 2023 draft. Exciting times in the league's most exciting hockey city.
If you're the Islanders, the concern here is that Dobson turns out to be another Devon Toews, a cap dump that never should have been made, and one that haunts New York to this day. If Hutson and Dobson become the new Cale Makar and Toews, that'll be tough to swallow foe the Islanders. Of course, the return for Toews was a mere pittance, two second-rounders. The haul for Dobson is a significant one, and can get even more significant if new Islanders general manager Mathieu Darche can somehow re-package it and move up high enough in the draft to take Long Island native James Hagens on top of defenseman Matthew Schaefer, the presumptive No. 1 pick.
If Darche pulls that off, this grade jumps up a few notches, for sure. But at the moment, it's still trading a bird in the hand for two in the bush, a sure thing for a couple of lottery tickets. The Canadiens got better immediately. The Islanders are taking a step back in an effort to secure a brighter future. It might be wise, but it's hardly guaranteed.
Making the money work was going to be a challenge for the Islanders, for sure, but the thought of having Schaefer, Dobson and Ryan Pulock down the right side of the blue line was a tantalizing one, and now one that will never materialize. Schaefer now replaces Dobson rather than supplements him. But hey, there's only so much power-play time to go around. Now, Dobson can fight it out for PP1 minutes with Hutson instead.
Canadiens grade: A-
Islanders grade: B-
Shayna Goldman: Dobson isn't a perfect player, and there's no use pretending he is. He isn't Makar, Quinn Hughes or Zach Werenski. Not after 2024-25, at least. But it feels like recency bias has negatively affected his value.
Dobson's offense was a standout in 2022-23 below the surface, and popped more on the scoresheet in 2024-25. Yes, a 39-point season this past year was a massive disappointment — there's no way around that. He was supposed to be the difference, both at five-on-five and on the power play, to lead the team out of its struggles. But even despite last year's dips, and some really glaring defensive mistakes, he is still the kind of player worth betting on. It was worth seeing what he could do under a slightly adjusted coaching staff, after assistant changes.
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Dobson, at 25, still fit the timeline of the Islanders' retool. And while they are likely to draft Schaefer tonight, having both wouldn't necessarily be redundant, either. If anything, it would allow the Islanders to split two offensive threats across the top four, which could help activate more of their forwards. The Canadiens are about to gain that with Dobson and Hutson.
It's easy to jump to the conclusion that he wasn't worth this big of an extension. But franchise defenders don't come cheap, and the $9.5 million cap hit isn't bad value, either — especially with the growing cap ceiling. Even after a disappointing 2024-25 season, his top comps still are encouraging — Seth Jones, Drew Doughty, Ryan Suter, Duncan Keith and Ryan McDonagh — so the path to being a true top-pair defenseman is there. If he follows Thomas Chabot's path or Kevin Shatterkirk's, it's a lot dicier.
Taking a step back for draft picks is a much more uncertain path. Maybe it works out. Maybe those picks can be flipped to move up in the draft for Hagens, which would be special. It just shouldn't have come at the cost of Dobson. Because if that doesn't happen, those picks are going to be used to draft a player the team only hope will have Dobson's ceiling. Like Mark said, it's giving off Devon Toews vibes.
That's why the Canadiens come out the winner here. Montreal took a massive step this season, and adding Dobson should help the team build on that. While his path to top power-play time is likely blocked by Hutson, which could impact his point totals, this gives the Canadiens another play-driver from the back end, which should thread the needle more at five-on-five. Those potential usage adjustments (and scoring effects) do impact Dobson's market value, but having this deal come in below the $10 million mark makes it all check out.
After rebuilding over the last few years, the Canadiens can afford to move draft picks (and Heineman) in exchange for someone who can take this team to the next level now and in the long run. It's an exciting time in Montreal. While this is a big swing, the Canadiens are finally in position to take these leaps. Plus, with Hutson on his entry-level contract for another year, and Ivan Demidov for the next two, it should help offset some of the costs of Dobson's raise.
Canadiens grade: A-
Islanders grade: C+
(Photo of Noah Dobson: Rich Graessle / Getty Images)
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