Inside Line: Thermal Predictions (Besides Palou)
Today's question: Alex Palou is the obvious favorite to win The Thermal Club INDYCAR Grand Prix this Sunday (3 p.m. ET, FOX, FOX Sports app, INDYCAR Radio Network), as he won the exhibition race from the pole last year at the Southern California road course and opened this season with a win March 2 at St. Petersburg. So, who do you think is the favorite other than Palou to take the checkered flag at Thermal?
Curt Cavin: If not Alex Palou, this feels like a Scott Dixon event given the role tire management and pit strategy figure to play. Plus, this is effectively a new event given that last year's non-points outing was not much more than a series of 10-lap sprints. Dixon is surely still smarting over what happened in the season-opening race in St. Petersburg, when a lack of radio communication with his Chip Ganassi Racing crew allowed Palou to undercut him on the final pit stop for the lead and the win. Dixon also hasn't forgotten that this trip to Southern California was one of his worst outings last year, so count on him to be on point this weekend.
Eric Smith: I think Colton Herta can knock Palou off the perch this weekend. Herta has a knack for these types of circuits. Five of his nine NTT INDYCAR SERIES wins have come on natural road courses. Three of those nine wins have come in California, with two at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca. That's noteworthy because, by all accounts, The Thermal Club racing surface is a cheese grater on the Firestone Firehawk tires, similar to Laguna Seca before the 2023 repave. Herta stomped the field in his 2019 and 2021 Laguna Seca victories and is a master at managing tire wear, which could translate to victory this weekend. Herta finished fourth in last year's exhibition race at The Thermal Club and produced finishes of eighth, seventh, sixth, second, fourth and fourth, respectively, on natural road courses last season. Andretti Global was also one a few teams to test at The Thermal Club in January.
Paul Kelly: The abrasive surface at Thermal will put the Firestone tires and team strategists to the test, and I think Curt is on to something with his choice of Scott Dixon. The Iceman can adapt to and execute tactical changes in the cockpit arguably more deftly than any driver in the NTT INDYCAR SERIES. But I think the unique tire wear rates at this desert track could lead to a real wild card winner, so why not Felix Rosenqvist? FRO started second and finished third at the exhibition race last year in his Meyer Shank Racing Honda, and he qualified third and finished seventh earlier this month in the season opener at St. Petersburg. Rosenqvist gets series win No. 2 this Sunday, nearly five years after his first in July 2020 at Road America.
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