Morocco faces extreme water scarcity by 2050 warns UN report
A recent international report titled « Drought Hotspots Around the World 2023–2025 », published this month by the U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center in collaboration with the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, presents alarming findings about Morocco's worsening water and climate situation. The report warns that if current trends continue, Morocco could enter a phase of «extreme water scarcity» by the middle of the century.
Six Years of Drought… and a Drier Future
While droughts are a natural part of Morocco's climate, the report notes that their frequency and severity have increased significantly since the early 20th century. Between 2018 and 2024, the country experienced its longest multi-year drought on record, with 2022 being the driest year in three decades.
According to climate projection models, rainfall in the Atlas Mountain basins could decrease by up to 65% by 2100, posing a major threat to Morocco's water supply and agricultural productivity. The country currently has just 645 cubic meters of renewable water resources per person per year, compared to 10,000 in water-rich countries. That number is projected to drop to 500 cubic meters by 2050, pushing Morocco into the category of extreme water stress.
The start of 2024 was particularly dire. The national dam fill rate averaged only 25%, while January marked record-breaking temperatures of 37°C and a 57% deficit in rainfall. The Al Massira Dam, Morocco's second-largest, dropped to critical levels, between 1% and 2% full. In response, cities across the kingdom implemented strict water restrictions, including bans on washing cars, watering gardens, and cleaning public streets. In some areas, hammams (public baths) were ordered to close three days per week.
Turning to Desalination Despite High Costs
In response to the crisis, Morocco has ramped up its investment in seawater desalination, despite the high costs associated with importing 90% of its energy needs. The country plans to construct 11 new desalination plants between 2024 and 2025, alongside the operation of 23 mobile units already deployed.
Between 2021 and 2023, Morocco also invested approximately €15 million in cloud seeding programs, which are estimated to have increased rainfall by 4% and boosted agricultural yields by as much as 20%.
The prolonged drought has severely impacted Morocco's agricultural sector, which employs about 35% of the national workforce. Just ahead of Eid al-Adha in 2023, meat prices soared to record levels, prompting the government to quintuple livestock imports and suspend customs duties to stabilize the market.
By April 2024, agricultural output had declined by 20%, while a European report forecasted that wheat and barley yields would be 30% below average. The government was forced to extend subsidies for soft wheat imports through the end of 2025. The report also noted a 38% drop in sheep numbers compared to 2016 due to the prolonged drought.
A Call to Action
The report urges drought-affected countries, including Morocco, to assess risks and implement urgent adaptation strategies. Recommendations include reducing water consumption, diversifying supply through desalination and wastewater reuse, strengthening governance and early warning systems, and enhancing community engagement and regional cooperation to confront the growing threat of water scarcity.
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